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Old 04-05-2019, 02:17 PM   #21
BirdWatcher
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neezer View Post
Doesnt "Catcher Ability" make a huge difference?
I'm convinced, from my own anecdotal experience (not any hard data), that it does make a difference.
Huge is probably an over-statement.
How large a difference I couldn't really speculate on.
But I will say that I increasingly put greater and greater value on having superb defensive catchers (and will sacrifice offense-not that there is much available anyway) at this position. And my team in my fictional league generally has the best or near the best pitching year after year while playing in a park that favors hitters a bit.
Edit: But yeah, I have some pretty good pitchers too, including an ace who is the career leader (not much league history yet) in WAR among pitchers. And generally great team defense. So, how does one untangle all of these threads to know what impact each has on the whole?

Last edited by BirdWatcher; 04-05-2019 at 02:20 PM.
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:00 PM   #22
DMan77
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Originally Posted by BirdWatcher View Post
I'm convinced, from my own anecdotal experience (not any hard data), that it does make a difference.
Huge is probably an over-statement.
How large a difference I couldn't really speculate on.
But I will say that I increasingly put greater and greater value on having superb defensive catchers (and will sacrifice offense-not that there is much available anyway) at this position. And my team in my fictional league generally has the best or near the best pitching year after year while playing in a park that favors hitters a bit.
Edit: But yeah, I have some pretty good pitchers too, including an ace who is the career leader (not much league history yet) in WAR among pitchers. And generally great team defense. So, how does one untangle all of these threads to know what impact each has on the whole?
Uff I didn't even look at that, but it's a good point too.

Maybe I'll edit a catcher or two on a team and run a sim to see what happens vs. a few seasons with a non edited/average catcher.

I realize we'll probably never have a perfect set of things to look at when it comes to choosing a pitcher... But it would be nice to untangle all this to a few rules of thumb when it comes to building a rotation and a battery.
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:03 PM   #23
Cactusguy21
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Stats. That's literally all you have to go on, unless they are at least 3.5 stars as a starter or 4.5 as a reliever. There are soooo many pitchers with similar ratings, and you can get such a wide variety of results from them. You gotta look at how they did in the minors, if they can keep their walk rate or HR rate down then they are worth a look, stuff is the least important stat for starters and most important for relievers.
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Old 04-05-2019, 05:36 PM   #24
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Stats. That's literally all you have to go on, unless they are at least 3.5 stars as a starter or 4.5 as a reliever. There are soooo many pitchers with similar ratings, and you can get such a wide variety of results from them. You gotta look at how they did in the minors, if they can keep their walk rate or HR rate down then they are worth a look, stuff is the least important stat for starters and most important for relievers.
Don't know if this is still true but I'm pretty sure I remember it being "common wisdom" among the vets that the results you get in the minors didn't really correlate all that well to how they'd perform in the majors. Possibly something that was just an "old wives' tale" but from my experience, I rarely see any of my top prospects do all that well in the minors even though many of them excel at the MLB level. Someone else might be able to chime in with more knowledge on the subject since mine is more "hearsay" and anecdotal than anything else.
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Old 04-05-2019, 05:45 PM   #25
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Don't know if this is still true but I'm pretty sure I remember it being "common wisdom" among the vets that the results you get in the minors didn't really correlate all that well to how they'd perform in the majors. Possibly something that was just an "old wives' tale" but from my experience, I rarely see any of my top prospects do all that well in the minors even though many of them excel at the MLB level. Someone else might be able to chime in with more knowledge on the subject since mine is more "hearsay" and anecdotal than anything else.
It's all about how they develop and what level and how good the team is. If your AAA, AA, A+ teams are loaded and play great defense your pitchers will have better normal stats.

I am looking at FIP-, hr/9, k/9, bb/9, k/bb ratios for my pitchers. That is whats most important.

Some of your minor league levels might be awful. But if his ratios are good then that's all that matters.

But its also development. If control develops late his minor league numbers/ratios might suffer until control pops and he is mostly developed. That might not be till AAA or sometimes even MLB.

While some other pitchers might develop stuff/control early but its their 3rd or 4th pitches that develop late. So some levels in the minors they still might crush it. While high levels they might get rocked.

So a lot has to do with development timing and every pitcher has to be looked at on an individual basis. Plus all of the team level factors taking into consideration.

My one OOTP 19 universe my AAA, AA, A+ teams won like 5 or 6 championships straight. Which was opposite problem for pitchers as the teams were too good the pitchers appeared even better.
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:02 PM   #26
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I look for stuff and control ... and I try to stay away from flyball pitchers.

Adding good defense up the middle (2B, SS and CF) and I usually get good results.
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Old 04-05-2019, 07:14 PM   #27
Cactusguy21
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Originally Posted by Dyzalot View Post
Don't know if this is still true but I'm pretty sure I remember it being "common wisdom" among the vets that the results you get in the minors didn't really correlate all that well to how they'd perform in the majors. Possibly something that was just an "old wives' tale" but from my experience, I rarely see any of my top prospects do all that well in the minors even though many of them excel at the MLB level. Someone else might be able to chime in with more knowledge on the subject since mine is more "hearsay" and anecdotal than anything else.
No yeah, I meant more Major League stats. Minor league stuff means nothing in this game, sadly.
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Old 04-06-2019, 08:24 AM   #28
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Only 105 out of the 446 Major League pitchers (OOTP rosters, opening day) are at least 50/50/50. Three (Sale, deGrom and Syndergaard) are at least 60/60/60. None is 65/65/65.
that makes sense... most rotations are horrid.

that would be the top 3.33 for each of 30 teams. 4/5th starter junk... if spread out evenly that makes sense... now consider clumpin on better teams with better talent... real distribution.

most sp are horrible or flat-out inconsistent. many of those will have good years, but cannot be reasonably expected to remain consistent.

there aren't ~20 bonafide aces i n the league. there aren't even ~30 decent #2's or 1A's. never are. maybe some for a short-period of time and coincidentlally it occurs, but ... don't bank on it.

a lot of that depends on perception of elite... doing it one year isn't elite to me. even 2-3 years with SP... easy to get lucky for 2-3 years out of a 350 players.

Last edited by NoOne; 04-06-2019 at 08:27 AM.
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Old 04-09-2019, 05:54 PM   #29
MikeMcGuire
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I can't speak to the current MLB, but in 2008, the first year for which we have PITCHf/x-based framing stats, the range in receiving value between the best and worst teams was more than 90 runs, or roughly nine wins. That's huge! The number is going down, but I don't have current figures.
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