How to turn your ace around?

[millhousebc]

My ace pitcher, (5-0), leading the league in K's, 2nd in ERA, and all around stud, as gone ice cold. Back to back games, giving up 7 plus runs, third game, doesn't get out of the fourth after giving up 4 hrs in 3 1/3. Tried giving him an extra day off, and that didn't work. Decided to watch one of his games and noticed that despite having a plus fastball, he hardly throws it. Not sure if pitch sequence box is just for looks, but he throws more sliders and curveballs. Thinking about changing pitching coaches, but how do you guys get your ace going again? Thanks

[StarlinCastro]

A few comments on this ...

1. This is a pretty small sample size. Does this ace pitcher have any previous success besides this season? If so long, how long? How old is this pitcher?

2. Whenever a player begins to struggle, I always get prepared for a possible injury especially when it comes to a pitcher. I would be on the lookout for a possible injury.

3. What is you're pitching coach rated? (Good, Fair, Decent, Average, etc)

[Hotwheelz]

I usually just ride it out. If he's proven himself I think he's earned a few bad starts. Its frustrating for sure but I'd just send him out every 5th day.

[canaveral]

I change the pitching rotation around a bit. Surprisingly, it usually helps but may take a few starts to notice.

[RonCo]

The best way to make your guys play better is to trade them to your most despised rival.

[NoOne]

While i see the obvious benefits of ron's suggestion, i have a different perspective to offer

if you trust the ratings, or if you are stats only his track record, just ride it out.

there's no way to predict a slump. so, keep your best pitchers up front so they get the most starts. unless they have a hidden 'cofidence effect' coded into the game, his chances of performing well shouldn't be affected directly by recent results, if all other factors remain the same.

this assumes the first thing Starlin mention is known/understood and if delayed injuries are on, the 2nd one is a concern, too.

the 3rd thing it's good to know there seems to be very little correlation of coaching ability to reputation. this does not dispute that a coach with high "teach pitching" might help. i'd add that the focus matching the ace's style might be even more important, since you can actually see this information. as far as the coach's ratings, we can only hope and guess.

[Westheim]

Baseball is dangerous for entangling you in depressing, but small sample sizes.

Did the guy below suddenly forget how to pitch? The walks shot up, and he hasn't seen the seventh inning in his last three starts. Guys reach base constantly.

So is he done? Certainly not! From Pitcher of the Month in April to an almost-9.00 ERA in May happens. What do your guy's career numbers say? Mine's say he'll be fine. I don't know if you play out your games, but it helps in evaluating what goes wrong when something goes wrong. Where do those hits land? Are those singles hard or soft? Does the defense butcher plays? Part of Brownie's problem has been that the soft lines were caught in April, but they have so far largely fallen in for singles or doubles in May. Also note that the K/9 have even gone UP while he has been struggling, also hinting at the defense being a significant part of the problem. Bad luck factored in, too, with the last two starts being perfectly decent, before the opposition suddenly threw up a 4-spot. Single, walk, single, double play not turned, single - you know how this goes.

Playing out games also eventually tells you about patterns with pitchers. Brownie has always had at least one spell per season where he is wilder than a herd of mustangs for three to four weeks. He catches himself eventually.

You don't trade people because of two or three (or four...) bad starts if the 200 starts before that have been awesome. (And I don't even go into how he's a feelgood story, coming from the second-to-last round of a tire fire draft class where our first three picks ultimately played a grand total of zero major league games - your emotional mileage with your players may vary) Sitting it out with your struggling ace will almost always be better than making a panic trade. Panic is a bad advisor...

Sometimes, baseball is about sitting it out.

--- Edit ---

Re: Small sample sizes - This one can't be stressed enough. Nick Brown debuted for a directionless team in 2001, which played out the string even in early August (and in fact even in early May...) and was blown out in a 6-0 loss to the Loggers in his major league debut, knocked out in the fifth inning, seven hits, three walks, four runs, haven't recorded the strikeouts, probably few. That's a horrendous game, but also a horrendous sample size. The "team environment" at that moment (he basically was the last straw of hope to get some decent games played that year) made it look even worse, but it was STILL a horrendously small sample size.

Re: "How to turn your ace around?" - Answer: ACES turn THEMSELVES around. They don't need guidance.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

Re: "How to turn your ace around?" - Answer: ACES turn THEMSELVES around. They don't need guidance.

Precisely! And if they don't, they weren't really aces in the first place.

[Assos]

Things like this happens, sometimes I will change around my pitching order to have a start skipped or if I am really feeling bold, I will have him pitch to close out a game to get that level of true grit back. I play out my games and if any of my starters are having a rough inning, I use the visit the mound and it seems to calm most of them down. I do have issues with pitchers who think they know everything in their personality traits.

[NoOne]

look up the term "law of independent results"

the definition should explain everything.