Shots on goal imbalance

seven · 01-14-2018, 08:50 PM

In playing out games for the current NHL season, I have noticed that the shots on goal for a game seem very often to be heavily unbalanced, with one team having twice, three times, and occasionally even four times as many shots as their opponent.

So I decided to look at a sample of games in the OOTP simulation compared with what happened in the NHL this year. For the month of December 2017, in the NHL there were 213 games played and of those, only 6 ended up with one team having at least twice as many shots on goal as their opponent (source: espn.com). In my simulation with OOPT (using the latest version) over the same period, there were 43 games (out of 213) in which one team had at least twice as many shots on goal as their opponent.

This seems rather badly out of line. So I think something in the match engine ought to be adjusted to bring shots on goal into closer alignment with realistic outcomes.

JeffR · 01-15-2018, 01:07 AM

Yeah, I've got some plans to deal with that, they just haven't been implemented yet. I'm going to try making some changes to player behaviour that gets them to back off a little in one-sided games, and shoot more when their team is struggling to get chances. That'll be separate from and in addition to any coaching-directed tactical changes (which will be the next thing to try if the player-based changes don't go far enough.)

seven · 01-15-2018, 09:23 PM

Jeff,

Thanks for such attention to detail. In my style of playing OOTP, the match engine is the main thing. I think many would agree that it underlies the whole game.

01-14-2018, 08:50 PM	#1
seven All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Victoria, Canada Posts: 572	Shots on goal imbalance In playing out games for the current NHL season, I have noticed that the shots on goal for a game seem very often to be heavily unbalanced, with one team having twice, three times, and occasionally even four times as many shots as their opponent. So I decided to look at a sample of games in the OOTP simulation compared with what happened in the NHL this year. For the month of December 2017, in the NHL there were 213 games played and of those, only 6 ended up with one team having at least twice as many shots on goal as their opponent (source: espn.com). In my simulation with OOPT (using the latest version) over the same period, there were 43 games (out of 213) in which one team had at least twice as many shots on goal as their opponent. This seems rather badly out of line. So I think something in the match engine ought to be adjusted to bring shots on goal into closer alignment with realistic outcomes.

01-15-2018, 01:07 AM	#2
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 16,623	Yeah, I've got some plans to deal with that, they just haven't been implemented yet. I'm going to try making some changes to player behaviour that gets them to back off a little in one-sided games, and shoot more when their team is struggling to get chances. That'll be separate from and in addition to any coaching-directed tactical changes (which will be the next thing to try if the player-based changes don't go far enough.)

01-15-2018, 09:23 PM	#3
seven All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Victoria, Canada Posts: 572	Jeff, Thanks for such attention to detail. In my style of playing OOTP, the match engine is the main thing. I think many would agree that it underlies the whole game.