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09-09-2019, 09:47 AM | #41 | |
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09-09-2019, 09:52 AM | #42 | |
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No one said "WAR was a fact" "WAR works" is a fact Yes, WAR is an estimation. It is a fact that that estimation works. Here's, again, the proof: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ird-order-wins Why won't you dispute this proof? We know why. 1) it's not disputable 2) you don't understand it enough to Let's go back to your "the sun rises everyday" example of a fact. Leaving out that the sun doesn't actually rise, just appears to rise, there are places on Earth where the sun does not rise every day. This is dependent on the time of year and your location. If you're at the south pole in winter, the sun's not rising. If you're at the equator, it is. Let's also talk about the equator. In the 1700's the French were trying to measure the shape of the Earth, whether it was larger around the poles or around the equator. The equator doesn't pass through France, neither does the pole, so they went to Ecuador, also Sweden and Finland. In Ecuador they had to figure out where the equator was. They didn't have GPS, nor a giant measuring tape, to figure out exactly where the equator was so they estimated. This research proved that the Earth isn't a perfect sphere, but an oblate spheroid (it's bigger around the equator, than around the poles). Only thing is, over 200 years later, using GPS, it was found that the French were off by about 250 meters in their estimate of where the equator was (keep in mind, though, that the actual location of the equator moves since the poles move). The French team's estimate, though not exact, worked. They proved the Earth was bigger at the equator than around the poles. They found the equator to pass through Quito Ecuador. No one is ever going to find, under current conditions, that it passes through, say, Perth Australia. Another example, time Do sundials not work because they can tell you it's about 7:45 but can't tell you that it's exactly 7:44:30? A wrist watch, or cell phone. Does your cell phone clock not work because it says 7:45 when the official atomic UTC clock says it's 7:44:30.00000001? Don't be dumb Same with WAR. It's an estimation of player value Just like a sundial and a cell phone are an estimation of time. And, undeniably, WAR works Last edited by CBeisbol; 09-09-2019 at 09:57 AM. |
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09-09-2019, 10:14 AM | #43 | |
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No one should be saying that WAR is the ultimate measure of baseball. Because, yes, It'll be improved upon. If they say that, you can stop listening to them. They're wrong. Just like someone who says WAR doesn't work, is wrong. WAR does, using the car analogy, get you from point A to point B. Someone might, they will, create something that gets you there faster, or more cheaply, or more stylishly, or over water, or underwater, but, no one can deny that this version gets you there. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ird-order-wins Maybe you prefer horse and buggy, that's fine Maybe there will be Jetson's hover crafts in the future But neither of those things means that WAR doesn't get me around town Last edited by CBeisbol; 09-09-2019 at 10:48 AM. |
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09-09-2019, 10:26 AM | #44 | |
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"It doesn't do this thing I think it should do, but wasn't designed, or claim, to do" At this point, anyone* who is anti-WAR, you know that they don't understand it and don't know enough about it to know that they don't understand it. *Excludes people who work in baseball who definitely have something better |
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09-09-2019, 12:12 PM | #45 |
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Saying WAR is working is like claiming the human cannonball gave man the ability to fly. It's merely the next step.
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09-09-2019, 12:33 PM | #46 |
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This is a bit off topic but what one statistic do you guys consider the best indicator of total excellence for a MLB batter? I would also be interested in the same stats for pitching, running and fielding. Also, isn't WAR actually an attempt (stressing the word attempt) to somehow combine the basic outcomes of baseball success and/or failure into one single number. I would call WAR both a comparative and philosophical attempt to grade total player excellence.
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09-09-2019, 12:50 PM | #47 | ||
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WAR explains 86% of the variance in team wins. Go ahead and explain how you think a human cannonball is 86% of the way to flying. EDIT And another, more comprehensive, look FanGraphs' 2016 version of WAR explained 75% of the variance in teams from 1985 to 2013. https://community.fangraphs.com/usin...team-position/ Yes, it's lower. Because WAR is getting better. Also, the data collected back in 1985 was worse than in 2016. Last edited by CBeisbol; 09-09-2019 at 01:20 PM. |
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09-09-2019, 12:54 PM | #48 | ||
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09-09-2019, 01:19 PM | #49 |
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Man, I ask a question then step away and now look at all the good stuff I get to dig through. I will have some questions once I'm able. Thanks to everyone who responded.
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09-09-2019, 02:22 PM | #50 | |
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09-09-2019, 02:43 PM | #51 |
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09-09-2019, 04:16 PM | #52 | |
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WAR is an attempt to use one number to measure of players value which includes batting, fielding, and running. Different people, all probably smarter than me, have come up with slightly different formulas to determine this value. Some people criticize a lot of these formulas for placing to much emphasis on fielding/position. |
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09-09-2019, 05:23 PM | #53 |
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Alright, I'll get to questions in a bit, but here's something that I'm running across as I'm digging more into this that's pretty frustrating. Advanced statistics are really nerdy. I don't mean that as a negative.
I'm a pastor. I love theology. I love getting into the nitty-gritty and nuance of scripture, digging deep into its depth. And I love talking theology with people who also love theology. But those conversations are nerdy. Words and ideas are spoken that people who aren't into that sort of thing simply won't understand (I know because my wife's eyes glaze over whenever I try to talk with her about that stuff ). There's nothing wrong with that until I'm trying to relay those same ideas to people who don't understand. At that point, I need to figure out the best way to convey the message to them in a language they can understand. Speaking nerdy and speaking simple are both perfectly fine things to do. But we need to understand who our audience is. Part of the reason I started looking into advanced stats is because when I read popular level articles on baseball more and more the stats they are using are the nerdy advanced stats and not the popular level stats. More and more they are having nerdy conversations in front of people who probably don't get it. I think that's having a negative effect on people's interest in the game. People's eyes are glossing over. Who wants to pull out a dictionary to read an article on ESPN? Now, I'm a relatively smart guy. When I put my mind to it I can probably at least get a rudimentary grasp of advanced stats. I'm not at all opposed to them. I think they have their place. And I'm even okay with them becoming more prominent than traditional stats... as long as they taught and explained well to the hoi polloi when they're being used. Because its frustrating when the nerds are talking and I can't understand them. Now I know what my wife feels like.
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09-09-2019, 05:42 PM | #54 | |
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First learn the concepts, then the math, if you want. |
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09-09-2019, 06:07 PM | #55 |
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I know I can learn it. But, again, I'm a relatively smart guy. I've been following baseball for over 35 years. Baseball is "my sport." I listen to or watch hundreds of games a year. I'm into baseball, even if I'm not an advanced stat nerd. And popular level baseball articles are starting to get to the point where they are cause a non-nerdy, huge baseball fan's eyes to glass over a bit. I get that fandom needs to adapt to change (which is what this fan is attempting to do with the thread), but if advanced stat nerdiness is starting to turn away longtime fans, imagine what it's doing to casual fans. Again, I don't think advanced stats are a problem.
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09-10-2019, 12:15 AM | #56 |
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Casual fans are turned away because games take over 3 hours and the ball is only put into play like 40 times, not because they don't understand that a player's defense is a component in how valuable he is.
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09-10-2019, 06:08 AM | #57 |
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I didn't say advanced stats were the reason casual fans were leaving. But their growing prominence in popular level articles and commentary are not helping the situation with the non-nerdy crowd.
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09-10-2019, 07:14 AM | #58 |
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Correct. But they are turned away from discussing baseball and reading about it because the next gen stats are to complicated and they are made to feel inferior or dumb because they don't fully understand it. Word of mouth keeps the game in people's mind and peeks the interest of non fans.
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09-10-2019, 08:18 AM | #59 |
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If you've ever listened to a sports radio show or read a message board you would know that a lack of understanding hasn't stopped anyone from talking about something.
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09-10-2019, 08:51 AM | #60 |
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And if you ever put your self in another person's shoes, you'd realize how intimidating it is when the conversation does turn to an area you aren't familiar with. Especially when they are made to feel inferior when they don't know it.
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