Statistical accuracy

dbl4868 · 04-10-2020, 09:47 AM

For those of you who play other baseball sims, how does OOTP compare to other games on the market with regard to statistical accuracy in connection with players/league stats? I have heard mixed things in the past and was wondering what folks on this message board feel about this.

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Rain King · 04-10-2020, 09:55 AM

OOTP is a simulation, it isn't a replay. So, you need to keep that in mind.

So, the answer will be that it depends. You can definitely get your League Totals to be extremely close to real league totals if you want. There is going to be variance in player statistics though.

32koufax · 04-10-2020, 12:47 PM

Maybe 4 versions ago, I had the opinion that the accuracy wasn't on par w/Strat or Replay or Action... That is NO LONGER the case IMO... Keep in mind that I only do season replays, using R/L lineups and transactions. I have never been involved in any other aspect of this outstanding game... I play in Commisioner mode, manage the Phils, Yankees, all of Koufax's games and also jump in to other games during real time sim mode and watch, but also manage... Also, I've played all the great board game and computer sim games and I'm a bit of a stickler for SOLID/REALISTIC sim stats-- for both players, team and leagues. I haven't replayed a ton of OOTP seasons-- '27, '28, '30, '61, '62, '63 and I'm early in a '64 replay, but I have to say that I've been very impressed w/ the OOTP game engine... No off the wall, unrealistic stats... About the most "wacky" stat was '30 Hack Wilson's RBI # of 204 (in RL he knocked in 191), hardly an outlier. In '61, both Mick and Maris fell just short of 61 HR's. Koufax dominated in my '63 replay, just like in RL. Bob Richardson and Nellie Fox will be almost impossible to strike out, while a guy like '63 and '64 White Sox, Dave Nicholson, will be good for 1-2 K's a game... No one has struck out 25 batters or hit 5 HR's in a game, just very solid, realistic, believable stats...

Jack

robc · 04-10-2020, 12:55 PM

Another thing to remember is that a game that is using random numbers to resolve what happens is going to have results that probably look similar to a bell curve.I think the math of these numbers are correct...

If all situations are equal, if a player in real life hits 30 HRs in 600 AB, then in a game based on that performance I'd expect that player to hit between 25-35 HRs in 600 AB 68% of the time. I'd expect them to hit between 20-40 HRs 95% of the time.

That is a bigger variance than many people would expect, but based on using probabilities and random numbers that's roughly what's going to happen. Probably the only way to get better results is to fudge the outcomes - i.e. if a player is hitting too many HRs reduce that probability during the season. This seems artificial and I think most players wouldn't want that.

dbl4868 · 04-10-2020, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 32koufax

Maybe 4 versions ago, I had the opinion that the accuracy wasn't on par w/Strat or Replay or Action... That is NO LONGER the case IMO... Keep in mind that I only do season replays, using R/L lineups and transactions. I have never been involved in any other aspect of this outstanding game... I play in Commisioner mode, manage the Phils, Yankees, all of Koufax's games and also jump in to other games during real time sim mode and watch, but also manage... Also, I've played all the great board game and computer sim games and I'm a bit of a stickler for SOLID/REALISTIC sim stats-- for both players, team and leagues. I haven't replayed a ton of OOTP seasons-- '27, '28, '30, '61, '62, '63 and I'm early in a '64 replay, but I have to say that I've been very impressed w/ the OOTP game engine... No off the wall, unrealistic stats... About the most "wacky" stat was '30 Hack Wilson's RBI # of 204 (in RL he knocked in 191), hardly an outlier. In '61, both Mick and Maris fell just short of 61 HR's. Koufax dominated in my '63 replay, just like in RL. Bob Richardson and Nellie Fox will be almost impossible to strike out, while a guy like '63 and '64 White Sox, Dave Nicholson, will be good for 1-2 K's a game... No one has struck out 25 batters or hit 5 HR's in a game, just very solid, realistic, believable stats...

Jack

I find the league stats are very accurate. But some players' stats can be way off some times.

04-10-2020, 09:47 AM	#1
dbl4868 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 78	Statistical accuracy For those of you who play other baseball sims, how does OOTP compare to other games on the market with regard to statistical accuracy in connection with players/league stats? I have heard mixed things in the past and was wondering what folks on this message board feel about this. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

04-10-2020, 12:47 PM	#3
32koufax Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 92	Maybe 4 versions ago, I had the opinion that the accuracy wasn't on par w/Strat or Replay or Action... That is NO LONGER the case IMO... Keep in mind that I only do season replays, using R/L lineups and transactions. I have never been involved in any other aspect of this outstanding game... I play in Commisioner mode, manage the Phils, Yankees, all of Koufax's games and also jump in to other games during real time sim mode and watch, but also manage... Also, I've played all the great board game and computer sim games and I'm a bit of a stickler for SOLID/REALISTIC sim stats-- for both players, team and leagues. I haven't replayed a ton of OOTP seasons-- '27, '28, '30, '61, '62, '63 and I'm early in a '64 replay, but I have to say that I've been very impressed w/ the OOTP game engine... No off the wall, unrealistic stats... About the most "wacky" stat was '30 Hack Wilson's RBI # of 204 (in RL he knocked in 191), hardly an outlier. In '61, both Mick and Maris fell just short of 61 HR's. Koufax dominated in my '63 replay, just like in RL. Bob Richardson and Nellie Fox will be almost impossible to strike out, while a guy like '63 and '64 White Sox, Dave Nicholson, will be good for 1-2 K's a game... No one has struck out 25 batters or hit 5 HR's in a game, just very solid, realistic, believable stats... Jack Last edited by 32koufax; 04-10-2020 at 12:49 PM.

04-10-2020, 12:55 PM	#4
robc Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,079	Another thing to remember is that a game that is using random numbers to resolve what happens is going to have results that probably look similar to a bell curve.I think the math of these numbers are correct... If all situations are equal, if a player in real life hits 30 HRs in 600 AB, then in a game based on that performance I'd expect that player to hit between 25-35 HRs in 600 AB 68% of the time. I'd expect them to hit between 20-40 HRs 95% of the time. That is a bigger variance than many people would expect, but based on using probabilities and random numbers that's roughly what's going to happen. Probably the only way to get better results is to fudge the outcomes - i.e. if a player is hitting too many HRs reduce that probability during the season. This seems artificial and I think most players wouldn't want that. __________________ Because I play too much, One Guy, Too Many Games Last edited by robc; 04-10-2020 at 05:18 PM.

04-10-2020, 09:55 AM	#2
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,108	OOTP is a simulation, it isn't a replay. So, you need to keep that in mind. So, the answer will be that it depends. You can definitely get your League Totals to be extremely close to real league totals if you want. There is going to be variance in player statistics though.