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Old 07-19-2015, 01:31 PM   #1
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Crazy Cy Young voting

Markus,

This has to be a bug of some sort. I just finished the 2019 season in which Cub ace Marcus Stroman went 23 - 5 with a 2.67 ERA. That was the most wins and sixth best ERA for a starter.

Meanwhile the Dodger's Clayton Kershaw goes 11 - 11 with the same 2.67 ERA and he wins the Cy Young Award!!!!!

Even my second best pitcher did far better than Kershaw. Matt Latos went 20 - 4 with a 2.65 ERA and he didn't even finish in the top three.

This kind of inexplicable logic really takes away from the game. Since no pitcher would ever win the Cy Young based on 11 wins, could you please explain how this happened?

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Old 07-19-2015, 01:44 PM   #2
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Might have to start manually voting.
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Old 07-19-2015, 01:44 PM   #3
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After a quick fact check, there have been 7 Cy Young winners since '67 with fewer than 11 wins.

I mean, that still doesn't explain your situation, but it happens.

What were Kershaw's other stats?
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Old 07-19-2015, 02:11 PM   #4
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While it doesn't look right at first glance I too need to see a lot more than W-L ERA. Just a few years ago Stroman wins easily. However in today's world of advanced metrics and with baseball starting to embrace said metrics that is no longer the case.
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Old 07-19-2015, 02:21 PM   #5
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Dear Bueno,

Yes! But they've all been relievers who've won the award based on saves. That was supposed to be implicit here, but I could've explained it better.

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Old 07-19-2015, 02:25 PM   #6
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WAR I expect is the reason. Can the OP show each pitchers WAR?
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Old 07-19-2015, 02:31 PM   #7
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To make matters much worse, the number three player in Cy Young voting was Reliever Ken Giles who went 6 - 5 with 47 saves and a 1.53 ERA.

Meanwhile, Cub's closer Aroldis Chapman went 0 - 4 with 51 saves and a 1.99 ERA. I could easily make an argument that he should've come in third. Not the least of which, closers with too many wins and losses mean a lot of blown saves.
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Old 07-19-2015, 02:34 PM   #8
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RchW,

Stroman was a 5.1 WAR and Kershaw was a 7.3 so you may be right. But no 11 - 11 starter will ever win the Cy Young so that needs to be fixed.
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Old 07-19-2015, 02:44 PM   #9
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Fernando Valenzuela and Sparky Lyle won with 13 wins each. And it isn't impossible to think that Sale could end up around that win total this year (especially if the ChiSox become sellers at the deadline) and win the CYA.

In any case, yeah it looks like WAR is the factor. Also, I'd probably take Giles over Chapman as well, based on those minimal stats.
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Old 07-19-2015, 03:09 PM   #10
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Bueno,

And those are the two exceptions that prove the rule. Again, Lyle was a reliever back in the days when a two inning save was not at all unusual. Thus, he's out of this equation. 26 saves was big back then.

As far as Mr. Valenzuela goes, that was a very odd NL year with very low win totals for starters in general. And Tom Seaver, at 14 - 2, clearly deserved the Cy Young that year.

We can't argue relievers in this case because Kershaw had now saves and your 11 game winner argument falls completely flat. Unlike the 1981 NL, there were a number of 20+ game winners in my 2019 OOTP season.

As far as Sale goes, he's a great pitcher, but considering the White Sox are in last place and Dallas Keuchel's stats are significantly better, it's very unlikely.
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Old 07-19-2015, 03:40 PM   #11
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WAR always wins out. Wins don't matter anymore. This is why i manually vote for awards. I ask the AI who they think should win then i make changes as I see fit. I would have given it to Giles or Stroman based on what you have told us so far. How many K's did Kershaw have compared to Stroman. What was Opp AVG?

Sale has a good shot at the CYA for now. Kuechel is only better in ERA. Baseball ref isn't listing OPPAVG. Not a fan og FIP but Sale leads the AL in FIP, WHIP & K/9. i am also extremely biased here.
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Old 07-19-2015, 04:11 PM   #12
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Quote:
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RchW,

Stroman was a 5.1 WAR and Kershaw was a 7.3 so you may be right. But no 11 - 11 starter will ever win the Cy Young so that needs to be fixed.
A 2.3 difference in WAR is significant. I for one would not want this "fixed" because nothing is wrong. Wins and losses do not always reflect pitcher performance. If Stroman was within 0.5 WAR then I'd have no problem with either player.

See the 2010 Cy Young results. Felix Hernandez win at 13-12 was hailed as a triumph of reason over numbers. Who would you have picked in the AL. In the NL Halladay had both numbers and WAR so the selection is defensible. If Jiminez was at 8 WAR then doing that in Colorado may have been enough to win it.
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Old 07-19-2015, 04:16 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CubsManager View Post
RchW,

Stroman was a 5.1 WAR and Kershaw was a 7.3 so you may be right. But no 11 - 11 starter will ever win the Cy Young so that needs to be fixed.
2010 Awards Voting | Baseball-Reference.com

A 13-12 pitcher won the Cy Young just five years ago over a 21-game winner and two 19-game winners... Felix actually was not even the league leader in fWAR that year--which is closest to the OOTP version of the stat--though did lead in rWAR by a couple wins.

Though to be fair, I think that even with the increasing accepting of "new" stats like WAR, that Stroman probably would have won in that race in real MLB.
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Old 07-19-2015, 04:18 PM   #14
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Quote:
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See the 2010 Cy Young results. Felix Hernandez win at 13-12 was hailed as a triumph of reason over numbers.
whoops, a few minutes late!
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Old 07-19-2015, 04:20 PM   #15
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I just shrug and keep going on Cy Young and MVP voting each year.

I had one year where the MVP didn't even have enough ABs to qualify for the batting title.

I play an abbreviated season (48 games) with starters getting 16 starts each - (3 game series each weekend)

in 1904 Beany Jackson went 12-4 - CY Young winner? Jim St. Vrain with 8-7 record

by the way - changed name of my award - LOL!

Next season Ed Reulbach went 13-3 - Cy Young wnner? Eddie Plank at 9-7

Next season, Fred Mitchell goes 12-4 - Cy Young winner? Ned Garvin at 9-6

No real rhyme of reason to it.

Another problem is that the little text that pops up tells me that Toad Ramsey won the triple crown of pitching one season - he only lead the league in wins - and is not credited with the triple crown in his history...

1907 MVP

Ty Cobb hit .347
Dave Brain led league with 5 home runs and 33 RBI

MVP? Roger Bresnahan with 1 HR, 17 RBI and .318 average

Year before Johnny Bates hit .343
Chick Stahl hit 5 HRs
Pop Foster had 29 RBI

MVP waas Frank Chance with 0 HR, 25 RBI and .295 average
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Old 07-19-2015, 04:38 PM   #16
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A 2.3 difference in WAR is significant. I for one would not want this "fixed" because nothing is wrong. Wins and losses do not always reflect pitcher performance. If Stroman was within 0.5 WAR then I'd have no problem with either player.

See the 2010 Cy Young results. Felix Hernandez win at 13-12 was hailed as a triumph of reason over numbers. Who would you have picked in the AL. In the NL Halladay had both numbers and WAR so the selection is defensible. If Jiminez was at 8 WAR then doing that in Colorado may have been enough to win it.
I was also going to mention Felix Hernandez. I'm not sure how much real life voters care about wins anymore (I'm sure many of the the older guys emphasize wins a lot), but wins are definitely not the best stat to judge a pitcher. Maybe in real life Stroman may have won, but I like how OOTP handles this. Perhaps in another version there could be an option to have the awards chosen either realistically, or more sabermetrically (which I guess is less realistic).
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Old 07-19-2015, 05:00 PM   #17
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I get the Felix Hernandez answer.

In my 1909 Season Christy Mathewson won the award with a losing record (7-8) while Nap Rucker went 12-3

What made it strange is that Christy pitched for a team that finished 2 games over .500

I understand pitchers wins and losses are not a great measure of success. But they have been using that non-exact 'science' for over a century...
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Old 07-19-2015, 05:09 PM   #18
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I was also going to mention Felix Hernandez. I'm not sure how much real life voters care about wins anymore (I'm sure many of the the older guys emphasize wins a lot), but wins are definitely not the best stat to judge a pitcher. Maybe in real life Stroman may have won, but I like how OOTP handles this. Perhaps in another version there could be an option to have the awards chosen either realistically, or more sabermetrically (which I guess is less realistic).
I claim that WAR is the realistic route. Before anyone gets their nose out of joint I have no problem if a lower WAR player wins if for example his team wins the division or has the best record. I'm seeing this in my current leagues for both MVP and Cy Young now so there is absolutely nothing wrong with the current process IMO.
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Old 07-19-2015, 05:38 PM   #19
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But guys, WAR is a ridiculously subjective, and thus, meaningless stat. In fact It's so subjective that no one can agree on exactly how to calculate it. I also have a lot of trouble with a state being based on some phantom "replacement player."

And here's proof. If you look at two starters with a 2.67 ERA and one goes 23 - 5 and the other goes 11 - 11 - both for teams that finished first in their division, it's clear who the more valuable pitcher is.
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Old 07-19-2015, 05:49 PM   #20
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While I'm somewhat old school and not a huge fan of WAR your statement is not necessarily true. The 23 win pitcher might have been the recipient of overwhelming run support and cruised to some easy wins that anybody could have won. The 11 win guy might have played for an offence challenged team or at least lacked offence when he pitched and lost several 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 type games but he kept his team in the game and therefore had value.
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