Which Player Would You Draft?

[ProphetEyes]

1906 in my fictional historical league. Which of these two players would you pick and why? I'm leaning towards Powell, but I like Neal a lot too.

[Reed]

If you are drafting for a center fielder, I would definitely go with Norman Neal. Defensive ability needs to be 1st consideration for center fielder, shortstop, second baseman and catcher IMO.

[Poonox24]

I completely agree. No brainer on this one. He’s far superior defensively and only slightly less offensively. Neal is the pick here

Originally Posted by Reed

If you are drafting for a center fielder, I would definitely go with Norman Neal. Defensive ability needs to be 1st consideration for center fielder, shortstop, second baseman and catcher IMO.

[BirdWatcher]

If Powell wasn't so short, and if he could be converted to first base, I would think he would have more value, as his hit tool is strong and I like his speed. Could you live with him in left field? Maybe, if he really developed as a hitter and gained a bit of power. I like his high intelligence and that bodes well for decent development.

Still, overall I agree with the others here. Neal is your better bet. Although, given his age he isn't likely to surpass expectations. Not a star. But a good defensive center fielder. I'd like him better if he had any power potential and if his natural speed translated better into base stealing and base running skills. That gap power is underwhelming also.

Hmm. I'm getting less and less sure about this as I look closer. Powell is only 17. Perhaps he grows a bit still and adds a little power to his profile. There is certainly more time for him to benefit from the gift of random talent change.

Yes, center field is a premiere position and you certainly don't want Powell playing there. I usually say chose best talent available but this could be too close to call just on that basis alone. I find myself wondering about your current center field situation. If you really need a future center fielder I say take Neal. But if you are good there you might want to take a chance on the younger Powell and his good bat and run tool.

[NotMuchTime]

Tough call, Powell is only 17 and he has the speed for CF. He's a gamble as a CF, but could be great in LF. Neal looks like a singles hitter with low OBP and can't steal bases or bunt.

I think it depends on the status of your minor leagues. I'd lean towards Powell.

[Findest2001]

Neal

[ProphetEyes]

OK to reply to some of the questions being asked.



I'm trying to draft the best available prospect. but CF definitely needs depth in my orginization.



Current CF:



Current LF was drafted last season and I'm hoping for a breakout year:



Only decent CF in my minors:



Hopefully this adds a bit more context to my teams situation

[ProphetEyes]

And I drafted this guy last round:

[BirdWatcher]

Not sure that I see Neal as being that big an upgrade over your current center fielder or even Bryant.
I like Murphy but it makes me wonder what your right fielder is like as I could see Murphy in right.

Neal is much more developed than Powell, of course. He is 22 years old after all. He could be a solid middle-of-the-road center fielder with a good glove. He's the safe bet. But sure as heck not much to get excited about, as I see it.

I think I would be tempted to take a chance on the higher potential upside of Powell. But with the awareness that he might be a total bust and even if he does provide value it won't be for several years. (How good is your minor league system at developing talent?) But I don't think you are going to totally beat yourself up if you don't choose Neal. He just doesn't look like anything all that special to me. As someone else said, basically a slap hitter who won't draw that many walks and doesn't know how to take advantage of his speed.

[BirdWatcher]

But what I didn't factor in above is whether it will be a wasted pick due to signability.

I don't play with that option on so I never think about this.
Looks like if you choose Powell he might not even be willing to sign with you. So that should probably be factored in also.

[TwinsTHunter]

I'm surprised the other responses completely glossed over the huge difference in their pre-draft stats. Powell looks like a much safer pick with higher upside; the defensive ability of that CF is fantastic, but his offensive potential seems quite a bit lower overall. The difference in eye potential is significant imo.

Basically at their best I see Neal as a .750 OPS, high ZR CF that adds value, but Powell could be an .875 OPS guy and a very good defender at a corner OF spot.

Unless you badly need a CF, I vote Powell pretty easily, assuming you move him to a corner.

[cmaug]

Powell, especially given your pick last round

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by TwinsTHunter

I'm surprised the other responses completely glossed over the huge difference in their pre-draft stats. Powell looks like a much safer pick with higher upside; the defensive ability of that CF is fantastic, but his offensive potential seems quite a bit lower overall. The difference in eye potential is significant imo.

Basically at their best I see Neal as a .750 OPS, high ZR CF that adds value, but Powell could be an .875 OPS guy and a very good defender at a corner OF spot.

Unless you badly need a CF, I vote Powell pretty easily, assuming you move him to a corner.

Setting aside the question of whether any of these stats are actually meaningful in assessing the future for these players, we are comparing high school stats to college stats. Not sure an apples to oranges comparison is very valuable here.
Still, I would lean towards Powell myself.

[NoOne]

no power left on the board? i don't think either of those guys are worth early draft picks -- so, it depends on where you are in the draft a bit.

you only need so many lead-off hitters. if it is the 4-5th round or so and that's still around and anything with power is a joke, it's the best way to go for sure. i wouldn't spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on those guys. weak draft, maybe 3rd round is worth it.

the HS and college stats aren't strongly correlated with future success.

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by NoOne

no power left on the board? i don't think either of those guys are worth early draft picks -- so, it depends on where you are in the draft a bit.

you only need so many lead-off hitters. if it is the 4-5th round or so and that's still around and anything with power is a joke, it's the best way to go for sure. i wouldn't spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on those guys. weak draft, maybe 3rd round is worth it.

the HS and college stats aren't strongly correlated with future success.

I was wondering about the lack of power as well.
What we don't know is what the offensive climate is like in this league. The year is 1906 but does that mean the offensive environment mirrors that of MLB in 1906? If so, power may not be as valuable and speed and contact abilities might be more useful.

I don't know the answer to that- perhaps the OP can illuminate.

[ProphetEyes]

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

I was wondering about the lack of power as well.
What we don't know is what the offensive climate is like in this league. The year is 1906 but does that mean the offensive environment mirrors that of MLB in 1906? If so, power may not be as valuable and speed and contact abilities might be more useful.

I don't know the answer to that- perhaps the OP can illuminate.

Yes, the league mirrors the MLB in the given year. I got the idea for this league from the Time-Warp Baseball dynasty thread. So basically the league is a historical MLB league with fictional players.

[TwinsTHunter]

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

Setting aside the question of whether any of these stats are actually meaningful in assessing the future for these players, we are comparing high school stats to college stats. Not sure an apples to oranges comparison is very valuable here.
Still, I would lean towards Powell myself.

Sorry I realize this is months later lol but I missed it earlier.

The stats are almost entirely based on the players real potential if scouts are off. Play a game with scouts off and look at the high potential players, they (almost) always have the best stats, at either level.

And yes, of course they are different levels, but hitting .500 in high school and likely hovering around the league leaders at that level is much more impressive than hitting .285 at a college level where the league leaders are likely in the high .300s.

Stats absolutely matter for draft prospects. I realize it's hard to quantify and with so many outside factors causing development, it's hard to know for sure. But...

If anyone has feeders on in their solo league, take a look at your league's best 8 or 10 players that were drafted. Most if not all will have elite college/high school stats. There's always a few late bloomers, but those kinds of players shouldn't be top picks.

[SR000]

Drafting be need, you can put yourself in bad position imo. I tend toward the best player available approach considering need as a tiebreaker. Some areas you will need to trade or seek in free agency if you can't develop. I don't see Neal as hitting well enough in the majors to make it worthwhile as you should be able to find a CF free agent who marginally gets on base with no power easily enough. Powell has more upside, although he will be limited to LF.