The Dreaded Development Update

xgeoff · 10-02-2015, 04:31 PM

Does anyone else dread the periodic development updates from their Scout? The first couple of times I looked forward to it, until I realized that the vast majority of changes were negative. I am constantly seeing 4 and 5 star players downgraded to 2 and 3 star levels

There was one time where one of my minor league guys jumped drastically in Contact and Eye ratings. He was amazing for one year, then the ratings dropped back down and he was average again. Almost every other player update is crushing, the values dropping without ever having gone up in the first place.

I think the worst was when I traded Robinson Cano for Kevin Kiermaier. It made so much sense. Kiermaier had a 14 contact rating, ran like a Gazelle and had a 20 Defense rating for both CF and RF. And he was much cheaper

It was perfect, and the first year with the team he roamed the outfield chasing down fly balls at an amazing rate, generating an awesome zr and batted over .300. I was so happy with the move.

The next year his contact and eye ratings dropped, as did his defense. He was 27 and never played the same again. His average was .250 to .260, he struck out A LOT, and his defense ratings fell precipitously

Anyone else get very sad when they see the Development Update email from their Scout?

BIG17EASY · 10-02-2015, 04:41 PM

That hasn't been my experience. I see a nice balance of increases and decreases. Sure, some of the decreases are disappointing, but that's baseball.

xgeoff · 10-02-2015, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

That hasn't been my experience. I see a nice balance of increases and decreases. Sure, some of the decreases are disappointing, but that's baseball.

I completely agree that increases and decreases are part of baseball, not knocking that at all. Just wondering if anyone else dreads this as much as I do. My experience is that I rarely get increases, and almost always see one or more of my good players degrade.

Assos · 10-02-2015, 06:21 PM

I have had some 2 and 3 star players develop real nice into 4 and 4.5 and had some 5 stars pot fall apart, just like in real life. See Brian Taylor 1991.

SirMichaelJordan · 10-02-2015, 07:04 PM

Might be that the player is on the decline. 27 seem like the age where players start falling of the cliff.

DBR · 10-02-2015, 07:33 PM

If every 5 star guy was a sure thing in the game then the game wouldn't be realistic. If you really think about it a majority of top prospects don't become superstars.

Raidergoo · 10-02-2015, 07:39 PM

I love this report. It shows me that some of my used car salesmen might yet make the majors.

xgeoff · 10-02-2015, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBR

If every 5 star guy was a sure thing in the game then the game wouldn't be realistic. If you really think about it a majority of top prospects don't become superstars.

Not knocking the realism aspect. Just asking if anyone else cringes like I do when the report comes out.

Curve Ball Dave · 10-02-2015, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xgeoff

Not knocking the realism aspect. Just asking if anyone else cringes like I do when the report comes out.

I get what you're saying and yeah, I don't always look forward to it. Sometimes it seems everyone is getting worse. But among all of that bad news, if you look carefully, you'll see that a low round draft pick from whom nothing was expected is now a two star prospect. That doesn't sound like much at first, but it means he's got a lot better and someone to keep eye on because in another year he may very well be a four star prospect.

So try not to get too depressed over bad news. Among all of the declines and downgrades, there might be a diamond in the rough that is starting to shine.

Kent814 · 10-02-2015, 11:03 PM

I love looking for the guys that just break out. Adam conley started at 55/50/55 and then went to a 55/55/60 then popped up to a 65/60/70 and currently is a 80/65/75 and won the past twi cy youngs

olivertheorem · 10-03-2015, 06:20 PM

I don't really dread it, mainly because every time it comes out I update the ratings for every player in the org by hand in a spreadsheet, so I see ALL the ups and downs. They really do balance out.

NoOne · 10-04-2015, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xgeoff

Does anyone else dread the periodic development updates from their Scout? The first couple of times I looked forward to it, until I realized that the vast majority of changes were negative. I am constantly seeing 4 and 5 star players downgraded to 2 and 3 star levels

There was one time where one of my minor league guys jumped drastically in Contact and Eye ratings. He was amazing for one year, then the ratings dropped back down and he was average again. Almost every other player update is crushing, the values dropping without ever having gone up in the first place.

I think the worst was when I traded Robinson Cano for Kevin Kiermaier. It made so much sense. Kiermaier had a 14 contact rating, ran like a Gazelle and had a 20 Defense rating for both CF and RF. And he was much cheaper

It was perfect, and the first year with the team he roamed the outfield chasing down fly balls at an amazing rate, generating an awesome zr and batted over .300. I was so happy with the move.

The next year his contact and eye ratings dropped, as did his defense. He was 27 and never played the same again. His average was .250 to .260, he struck out A LOT, and his defense ratings fell precipitously

Anyone else get very sad when they see the Development Update email from their Scout?

I don't read that report much anymore. not neccessarily because i dreaded it, but because it's just one month of info and i am not a computer so i cannot remember multiple large reports for all the prospects i care about.

i prefer the scouting reports in the individual player profile pages, because i can see multiple values over time all lined up and easy to read.

that way you may see it drop a tick, but you can see a trend over a greater amount of time to delineate if it is a blip or a trend. you might experience less dread this way.

one other note: if it's like ootp15, a rating change can occur on a specifc day each week. it was wednesday in my league last year. it's still better just to essentially ignore this except in cases of promotion/demotion. otherwise you start fretting over every prospect. you have to find a way to keep an eye on it without micromanaging and worrying about things you cannot control.

Padreman · 10-04-2015, 03:08 PM

I dread it. I never seen a Player drop them go up again. Maybe it does happen but I never seen it but that should happen players might suck but them get themselves right in get better in real life

NoOne · 10-04-2015, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Padreman

I dread it. I never seen a Player drop them go up again. Maybe it does happen but I never seen it but that should happen players might suck but them get themselves right in get better in real life

i had a very high potential drop and make a come back. it doesn't happen often.

A SP was consistently losing potential but still slowly moving up the minor leagues - very slowly. then all of a sudden they gained velocity a couple times and potential even recovered nearly all that it lost. his work ethic was nothing special. the turn around only took 1 year. he shot up from A to MLB.

they can recover up until 27 or 28 - refer to manual for exact figure. as long as they fall under the development cutoff something drastic can happen outside of TCR.

ThatSeventiesGuy · 10-04-2015, 03:39 PM

The only time the development report is sad for me is when I see my old guys...well, getting old, and starting to play that way. I always kinda go the Yankees route and use my prospects as trade fodder unless the oldsters get a little too old a little too fast.

ttaka808 · 10-07-2015, 01:39 AM

Invest some money into player development. You should see more increases than decreases.

SodoMojo · 10-07-2015, 03:36 AM

I dread it as well.

I see a balance in both positive and negative developments but in my experience the good developments are usually recoveries from development drop offs. (see a LOT of tick up, tick down, rinse, repeat) Rarely do I see guys improve let alone totally come out of left field.

Needless to say that goes tenfold for young IAFA's or prospects.

Add injuries, CEI's, and it's a gritty world! But it adds to the challenge and makes you appreciate the times guys do develop or improve.

There are of course ways to battle it through settings, scout types, development costs, etc...

Regardless...

I dread it...whether it's realistic or not...I dread it.

waltwa · 10-07-2015, 03:43 PM

the solution is to fire the scout and hire yourself at no salary to be the scout and spend the savings on player development. here is the big news. ask your scout if he actually sees the players he is scouting. oh wait u can't ask him a question because he does not exist therefore how can he possibly scout players?

ootp is the best game ever developed but not every aspect of the game makes sense and scouting is at the top of the list.

10-02-2015, 04:31 PM	#1
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	The Dreaded Development Update Does anyone else dread the periodic development updates from their Scout? The first couple of times I looked forward to it, until I realized that the vast majority of changes were negative. I am constantly seeing 4 and 5 star players downgraded to 2 and 3 star levels There was one time where one of my minor league guys jumped drastically in Contact and Eye ratings. He was amazing for one year, then the ratings dropped back down and he was average again. Almost every other player update is crushing, the values dropping without ever having gone up in the first place. I think the worst was when I traded Robinson Cano for Kevin Kiermaier. It made so much sense. Kiermaier had a 14 contact rating, ran like a Gazelle and had a 20 Defense rating for both CF and RF. And he was much cheaper It was perfect, and the first year with the team he roamed the outfield chasing down fly balls at an amazing rate, generating an awesome zr and batted over .300. I was so happy with the move. The next year his contact and eye ratings dropped, as did his defense. He was 27 and never played the same again. His average was .250 to .260, he struck out A LOT, and his defense ratings fell precipitously Anyone else get very sad when they see the Development Update email from their Scout?

10-02-2015, 07:04 PM	#5
SirMichaelJordan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,627	The Dreaded Development Update Might be that the player is on the decline. 27 seem like the age where players start falling of the cliff. Last edited by SirMichaelJordan; 10-02-2015 at 07:06 PM.

10-04-2015, 03:08 PM	#13
Padreman Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2013 Location: Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico (formally San Diego, CA.) Posts: 4,140 Blog Entries: 1	I dread it. I never seen a Player drop them go up again. Maybe it does happen but I never seen it but that should happen players might suck but them get themselves right in get better in real life __________________ Chargers= Despicable Traitors

10-04-2015, 03:39 PM	#15
ThatSeventiesGuy Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 3,421	The only time the development report is sad for me is when I see my old guys...well, getting old, and starting to play that way. I always kinda go the Yankees route and use my prospects as trade fodder unless the oldsters get a little too old a little too fast. __________________ https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...00&postcount=1

10-07-2015, 03:36 AM	#17
SodoMojo Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 136	I dread it as well. I see a balance in both positive and negative developments but in my experience the good developments are usually recoveries from development drop offs. (see a LOT of tick up, tick down, rinse, repeat) Rarely do I see guys improve let alone totally come out of left field. Needless to say that goes tenfold for young IAFA's or prospects. Add injuries, CEI's, and it's a gritty world! But it adds to the challenge and makes you appreciate the times guys do develop or improve. There are of course ways to battle it through settings, scout types, development costs, etc... Regardless... I dread it...whether it's realistic or not...I dread it. Last edited by SodoMojo; 10-07-2015 at 03:39 AM.

10-02-2015, 04:41 PM	#2
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	That hasn't been my experience. I see a nice balance of increases and decreases. Sure, some of the decreases are disappointing, but that's baseball.

10-02-2015, 06:21 PM	#4
Assos All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Just on the fair side of the foul pole! Posts: 1,772	I have had some 2 and 3 star players develop real nice into 4 and 4.5 and had some 5 stars pot fall apart, just like in real life. See Brian Taylor 1991.

10-02-2015, 07:33 PM	#6
DBR Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 173	If every 5 star guy was a sure thing in the game then the game wouldn't be realistic. If you really think about it a majority of top prospects don't become superstars.

10-02-2015, 07:39 PM	#7
Raidergoo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,004	I love this report. It shows me that some of my used car salesmen might yet make the majors.

10-02-2015, 11:03 PM	#10
Kent814 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: San Diego Posts: 650	I love looking for the guys that just break out. Adam conley started at 55/50/55 and then went to a 55/55/60 then popped up to a 65/60/70 and currently is a 80/65/75 and won the past twi cy youngs

10-03-2015, 06:20 PM	#11
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	I don't really dread it, mainly because every time it comes out I update the ratings for every player in the org by hand in a spreadsheet, so I see ALL the ups and downs. They really do balance out.

10-07-2015, 01:39 AM	#16
ttaka808 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 277	Invest some money into player development. You should see more increases than decreases.

10-07-2015, 03:43 PM	#18
waltwa All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 902	the solution is to fire the scout and hire yourself at no salary to be the scout and spend the savings on player development. here is the big news. ask your scout if he actually sees the players he is scouting. oh wait u can't ask him a question because he does not exist therefore how can he possibly scout players? ootp is the best game ever developed but not every aspect of the game makes sense and scouting is at the top of the list. Last edited by waltwa; 10-07-2015 at 03:47 PM.