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05-18-2019, 01:34 PM | #21 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 234
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Just found this thread, what a great read, not just about the Avoid K rating but about hitting ratings in general. I wonder if anyone did a study like this on pitching ratings?
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05-20-2019, 09:59 AM | #22 | |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 777
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Quote:
- Stuff = Strikeouts - Movement = HR suppression - Control = Walk suppression Sprinkle in defense, park factors, and level of competition and you can highly correlate all 3 relationships.
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07-13-2020, 05:49 PM | #23 | |
Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 21
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Quote:
If I were coding this, I would do it pitch by pitch with modifiers on each for probability, the aggregate of which results in realistic numbers. So the flow would go something like this: Pitch is selected from the pitcher and thrown to batter. Many variables would go into whether contact was made at all, but mostly that would boil down to stuff and avoid-k ratings. Strikeouts would be more common for pitchers with higher stuff because they are more likely to throw 3 missed balls, and batters would be more likely to strikeout with a lower avoid-k rating. If contact is made, numerous variables would affect the outcome. BABIP would affect the likelihood of the ball being a hit, but the zone ratings of the defender would also play into that. The rating of the specific pitch would matter. There would be a modifier based on whether the batter guessed the pitch properly, which would make a pitcher with more pitches less hittable, but this modifier would be affected by how many times the pitcher has been through the order (pitch count). Remember, the batter's contact rating is based on setting all pitcher ratings and fielder ratings to neutral and then applying the avoid-k against the BABIP. You will arrive at the same batting average regardless of the BABIP/avoid-k ratings as long as the contacts are the same. In other words, two batters may have the same contact, but one has a higher BABIP and the other a higher avoid-k rating. The one with the higher BABIP will hit fewer balls (in general and in play), but when he does they will be more likely to be hits. The one with the higher avoid K will hit more balls in play, but they will end up as outs. In the latter case, it is more desirable to be a flyball hitter, since then you can get sacrifice flys. Either way, though, the batters should bat the same average. If they face a pitcher with superior stuff, they will both strike out more, which will lower BOTH of their averages; again, they will bat the same average! Thus, I prefer the batter that strikes out more, since he will ground into a lot fewer double plays, but at the expense of sacrifice flyballs. If the player is batting in the latter part of the lineup (maybe 5th to 7th) and is a flyball hitter, it is probably better to have the higher avoid-K because the sacrifice fly will be more beneficial (think more RBIs) than the double plays will hurt (since the players after are probably weak anyway). |
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12-30-2020, 07:50 PM | #24 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 2,325
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Here I am again, with a necro of another great thread... I've been away for awhile, it is what I do...
I just wanted to say that I did a lot of statistics work with previous versions, and I think you're pretty much right on the money, Chazzycat! I also think the immediately previous poster had a very close idea of what the game is doing, but obviously doing it in two paragraphs. You're right on the edge of things that the devs won't give away, and if they think we get too close, they'd likely switch something in a minor way. I did want to point something out as far as your analysis goes... you really need to analyze the pitch-by-pitch logs and the spray charts for the players. I also think there may be hidden values relating to each type of pitch. "Some guys just can't hit the curveball..." "He's a dead-red fastball hitter." There's so much helpful information in this thread as far as game theory goes, so I didn't figure anyone would mind the necro too badly (especially as I'd seen you recently active, Chazzycat!) Great stuff. Thanks for posting it.
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04-01-2021, 09:24 AM | #25 |
Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 34
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I ran across this thread because I was looking into something similar. But I noticed that I had a few questions on some of the assumptions in this analysis. And I'm not an analytics guy so was hoping someone could set my thinking straight?
For Strike 1, the assumption was: 1) The game calculates first whether a player will strike out, by the avoid K rating. For all the PAs where the player doesn't strike out, walk, HBP etc., then those fall into a "BIP" bucket. Only then would the game apply the BABIP calculation to determine if it's a hit or not (determined by the CON rating, luck, defense, etc.). However, determining whether or not a BIP is a hit, you would not use CON, since CON is an amalgamation of both BABIP and Avoid K. Since we've already consumed the Avoid K part of contact in this theory, you wouldn't be able to use the full contact rating when determining a BABIP correlation. Wouldn't we need a way to remove the AvoidK part of Contact in order to be able to correlate contact to babip? Moving on to strike 2, the assumption is that we should see a correlation between Avoid K and AVG. But if we already took AvoidK out of the equation, wouldn't we assume there would be no correlation? We can assume that a batter with high Avoid K is going to hit the ball more, but we can't assume that more batted balls means more hits unless we know what causes a batted ball to turn into a hit. Since Avoid K wouldn't be part of that equation, I don't know why we would expect Avoid K to have a huge impact to AVG. I might expect a slight impact, since a strikeout is the first chance to lower a batting average, but two players with the same contact - one high avoid K, and one low avoid K, will have a similar average because the player with the low avoid k has a higher babip and vice versa? Last edited by jkdhoo; 04-01-2021 at 09:28 AM. |
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