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Old 12-13-2019, 01:25 PM   #1
allenciox
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Trap Collections: ones that look good, but are really -EV

What gets me is when you go to collect all the missions for a franchise, and then find that there are a few cards that get hoarded or whatever, and keep you from completing the overall mission without losing more PPs than you put in. This thread is for listing those, so that others don't make the same mistake. I will start with two postings: one for DET and one for CIN
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Old 12-13-2019, 01:48 PM   #2
allenciox
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DET missions look great, but....

The Detroit set of missions look really enticing: You get perfect Norm Cash along the way, as well as a fairly decent SP/RP in Gauss. You can get most of the way complete through the Detroit set of missions until you hit the real stoppers:

So the missions that are fairly easy to complete are Mr. I's Tigers (maybe net -3k after selling rewards), It's a Jungle Out There (net -5k after rewards). Tram, Sweet Lou (net -3k after rewards), and Hebrew Hammer (net +2k after rewards). Not so bad so far, eh?

Ahh, but then you see that Price Hal's subjects requires either Dizzy Trout (92) or Hal Newhouser (97), which will run you 30k. Not bad, you think, as the Newhouser(99) and Cabrera reward when you finish the collection will make up for the difference. So you pony up 30k on one of those players for a net loss on that collection of 30k (net loss on collections so far: maybe 39k).

Then you complete Goodbye, Mr. Tiger, which requires you to get all the cards, including 91 Hiller (which goes for around 30k on AH), for a net loss on that collection of 23k (net loss so far 61k)

Completing "Cobb's Tiger Cubs" requires two "not cheap" diamond cards --generates a loss of another 30k or so (total so far -91k) and then you hit Mr. Tiger's Early Years which requires two of the following four cards: 90 Colavito, 92 McAuliffe, 97 Norm Cash, and 99 Al Kaline. Good luck finding any of these cards for under 50k, giving a probable loss of only about 9k since Norm Cash is such an excellent card (total so far -100k). Then you hit the real issue, to finish "We Win", which on the rare occasion when you can find a Freehan on AH, will cost you between 160k and 180k for a whopping -150k or so on that collection.

Now you get Newhouser and Cabrera, maybe worth 200k total, but you have spent 250k to get them.

Save your PPs and tackle one of the excellent collections that pay you back at the end!
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Old 12-13-2019, 01:54 PM   #3
allenciox
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CIN: You follow the yellow brick road to find the reward is... well... just not worth very much

Reds missions look easy, right? No real "stopper" cards, all the pieces are pretty easy to find in the AH, etc.

You can actually complete Reds: Lean, Reds Rising, and We are the Reds with maybe a total loss of 2k, after selling off rewards. The Big Red Machine (-10k) and Life After (-20k) are more expensive, though. But that would be fine if the reward was commensurate with the effort. But the reward is... perfect Eric Davis? He who will get you maybe 30k after 10% tax on AH.

Save your money on this cheap but ultimately unrewarding mission set.
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Old 12-13-2019, 02:57 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by allenciox View Post
Reds missions look easy, right? No real "stopper" cards, all the pieces are pretty easy to find in the AH, etc.

You can actually complete Reds: Lean, Reds Rising, and We are the Reds with maybe a total loss of 2k, after selling off rewards. The Big Red Machine (-10k) and Life After (-20k) are more expensive, though. But that would be fine if the reward was commensurate with the effort. But the reward is... perfect Eric Davis? He who will get you maybe 30k after 10% tax on AH.

Save your money on this cheap but ultimately unrewarding mission set.
The diamond packs can make this mission palatable and maybe worth the effort, but it's RNG as to whether EV is +/-. I did not complete this mission because of it.
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Old 12-13-2019, 03:01 PM   #5
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I don't know about you, but a churning out a "free" 97 Newhouser and 99 Kaline seems like a pretty good deal to me. 97 Newhouser a particularly excellent stopper, and 99 Kaline obviously is a house vL. SE Freehan goes for 30k, so you break even on the investment of Hiller. Then you can target a 96/99/100 Cobb and one of the Gehringers and get some return out of it. And finally, that Freehan is just something you can keep an eye out for and pick up if you see one available. Certainly not a collection I'd recommend to do first, but if you've done the big ones already it's certainly not a mistake.

And Reds is basically "are you willing to work on a collection for 3 diamond packs?" Which is a reasonable payoff for not having to worry about finding diamonds, especially now that 100 Davis is selling for more than 30k.

Moral of the story: If you're viewing collections purely as "How can I leave this with more PP than I came in", you're doing it wrong.
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Old 12-13-2019, 04:32 PM   #6
allenciox
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I don't know about you, but a churning out a "free" 97 Newhouser and 99 Kaline seems like a pretty good deal to me. 97 Newhouser a particularly excellent stopper, and 99 Kaline obviously is a house vL. SE Freehan goes for 30k, so you break even on the investment of Hiller. Then you can target a 96/99/100 Cobb and one of the Gehringers and get some return out of it. And finally, that Freehan is just something you can keep an eye out for and pick up if you see one available. Certainly not a collection I'd recommend to do first, but if you've done the big ones already it's certainly not a mistake.

And Reds is basically "are you willing to work on a collection for 3 diamond packs?" Which is a reasonable payoff for not having to worry about finding diamonds, especially now that 100 Davis is selling for more than 30k.

Moral of the story: If you're viewing collections purely as "How can I leave this with more PP than I came in", you're doing it wrong.
Right. I should clarify what I mean when I am calculating ROI. I am calculating based on:

1. That the reward cards are not useful to you and will be sold on AH at 10% to 15% off 7-day price.
2. That locked cards are not useful to you above and beyond what you pay for them.
3. That a diamond pack is worth 11,500, a gold pack is worth 3,200, and a standard pack is worth 950. This has been about my average calculations opening 1300 packs. of what they are worth assuming you sell (or quick-sell) all cards received.

For example, take the Al Kaline (99) card you mention. It's 7-day price is 86,497 (I just checked) which is about 26.5k more than the 60k that a 90 Colavito will run you. Is this card worth 86.5k? No, but at least I can use it as a platoon bat in the OF, whereas the Colavito card is basically useless. It IS worth more than 26.5k for me --- I would estimate 30 to 35k so I bought it instead of Colavito (I also got it for only 80k, so beat the 7-day average).

BTW, thank-you for catching my error on the 98 Freehan. It indeed has a 7-day average of 34k, which means it should be valued at 30k (34k minus tax plus listing efforts) meaning Goodbye, Mr. Tiger itself is just slightly negative (about -3k).

So perhaps, with careful work, you can make both CIN and DET EV-neutral. I spent over three weeks on DET before giving up and trying other collections. My point is, why would you bother with doing a collection that, with a lot of work, over weeks, can get you back to where you started, when you can do plenty of other collections instead that will return you 100k to 200k? That is why these are traps, and I am just trying to help others avoid the traps I fell into.
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Old 12-13-2019, 04:50 PM   #7
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So perhaps, with careful work, you can make both CIN and DET EV-neutral. I spent over three weeks on DET before giving up and trying other collections. My point is, why would you bother with doing a collection that, with a lot of work, over weeks, can get you back to where you started, when you can do plenty of other collections instead that will return you 100k to 200k? That is why these are traps, and I am just trying to help others avoid the traps I fell into.
For sure, any players who is thinking about historical collections should already have CWS, MIL, MIN, and OAK done, among others, before they think about DET or CIN. And I'd add that STL and CLE are becoming not-so-positive, especially compared to their huge cost and with relatively fewer locked-and-useful players available in them.
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Old 12-13-2019, 05:45 PM   #8
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This thread is appreciated, thanks.

Last edited by Tinkerman; 12-13-2019 at 05:48 PM.
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