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Old 10-18-2019, 01:13 PM   #341
Cobra Mgr
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What does everyone think of QBR? What is the metric the math nerds swear by on QB's?
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:28 PM   #342
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With Mahomes out with a dislocated knee, do you think there is any way there is a team in the AFC who will prevent New England from reaching the SB?
KC is all that stands in the way of NE. Them and maybe Buffalo if their offense wakes up. Even still, I'd bet the house the Patriots represent the AFC in the SB. That alone should jinx them.

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What does everyone think of QBR? What is the metric the math nerds swear by on QB's?
Garbage. Another useless statistic. One of the great 3 lies. Go by what a QB does and you see on the field under pressure situations. I have little interest in statistics. Statistics are always brought up by fans in defense of failure. Don't show me stats, show me in the games.

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Old 10-18-2019, 08:42 PM   #343
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KC is all that stands in the way of NE. Them and maybe Buffalo if their offense wakes up. Even still, I'd bet the house the Patriots represent the AFC in the SB. That alone should jinx them.
No nice way to say this, but I hope you end up homeless.


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Garbage. Another useless statistic. One of the great 3 lies. Go by what a QB does and you see on the field under pressure situations. I have little interest in statistics. Statistics are always brought up by fans in defense of failure. Don't show me stats, show me in the games.
Yeah, it is kind of questionable to me. Especially since ESPN doesn't show how the hot dogs are made. I just happened to glance at the ratings this AM and saw Dak @ #1. Then noticed 5 of the top 6 were all of color. At first I was like, wow! we've "overcome". Then thought how could Dak & Lamar Jackson be 2 of the top 6? And Kyler Murray was 9th? So that maybe think "how can this be accurate?"
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Old 10-18-2019, 11:40 PM   #344
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I don't consider it the bible or anything but I don't see what's wrong with it, etiher. 6 out the last 10 years the QBR leader has been the leader in either Yards or TD, so those two statistics are obviously a major component of the formula. The major knock on it is that ESPN doesn't publish their formula.

*=QBR equals TD Leader OR Yards Leader OR Both
Year QBR Leader TD Leader Yards Leader
*2009 Drew Brees Drew Brees Matt Shaub
*2010 Tom Brady Tom Brady Phillip Rivers
*2011 Aaron Rodgers Drew Brees Drew Brees
*2012 Peyton Manning Drew Brees Drew Brees
*2013 Peyton Manning Peyton Manning Peyton Manning
2014 Tony Romo Andrew Luck (Drew Brees/Ben Rothlesberger tie)
2015 Carson Palmer Tom Brady Drew Brees
2016 Matt Ryan Aaron Rodgers Drew Brees
2017 Carson Wentz Russell Wilson Tom Brady
*2018 Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes Ben Rothlesberger

Here are the outliers and what may have caused their high rating:
2014: Tony Romo, career high in percentage(69.9) and Rating(113.2)
2015: Carson Palmer, career high in yards(4671) and TD(35)
2016: Matt Ryan, career high in percentage(69.9), Yds(4944), Avg(9.3) and career low interceptions(7)
2017: Carson Wentz, career high TD(33), career low int(7)

Last edited by monkeyman576; 10-18-2019 at 11:53 PM.
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Old 10-19-2019, 12:14 AM   #345
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The major knock on it is that ESPN doesn't publish their formula.
And I think it is fair to be skeptical because of that. I can't dismiss it. But I can't accept it either. Not to till I understand their process along with their reasoning. That's why I asked if there was a another metric out there that attempted to do the same thing.
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Old 10-19-2019, 12:22 AM   #346
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What does everyone think of QBR? What is the metric the math nerds swear by on QB's?
QBR is garbage and ESPN really needs to stop trying to make it a thing. I will never take it seriously.

The original rating formula is still the best way to go. Although, I'd love to see a new stat called "accuracy". or something similar. where it takes dropped passes into consideration. Completion percentage alone has always been too big of factor when figuring the rating and it's way overrated, IMO. Excuse my bias, but as an example Aaron Rodgers' last 4 INTs over the past two seasons have literally come from his receivers own dropped/tipped passes. Should this really count against his efficiency? I always thought it was strange. TD to INT ratio should definitely be a bigger factor as well.
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Old 10-19-2019, 12:51 AM   #347
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QBR is garbage and ESPN really needs to stop trying to make it a thing. I will never take it seriously.

The original rating formula is still the best way to go. Although, I'd love to see a new stat called "accuracy". or something similar. where it takes dropped passes into consideration. Completion percentage alone has always been too big of factor when figuring the rating and it's way overrated, IMO. Excuse my bias, but as an example Aaron Rodgers' last 4 INTs over the past two seasons have literally come from his receivers own dropped/tipped passes. Should this really count against his efficiency? I always thought it was strange. TD to INT ratio should definitely be a bigger factor as well.
I understand the reasoning. On the other hand, why should a QB get credit for a WR's one handed catch? How about one thrown behind him? What about a TE that breaks multiple tackles for extra yds or a TD? And should he be penalized if he completes a throw he threw short to a WR that beat his man deep by 2 yds? Should his rating be allowed a boost from 1yd TD runs on QB sneaks?

Like ragnar said, football is the ultimate team game. It is so easy to fail as an individual, but so hard to succeed as an individual. So to me it is really hard to measure a football player's individual performance. Maybe o-linemen are the only ones on the field who can actually succeed consistently w/o being necessarily helped or burdened by teammates. They have their assignment, it is up to them to clear the path or stop their man rushing the passer. Yet, they are the ones that don't generate stats.
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Old 10-20-2019, 05:14 AM   #348
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I understand the reasoning. On the other hand, why should a QB get credit for a WR's one handed catch? How about one thrown behind him? What about a TE that breaks multiple tackles for extra yds or a TD? And should he be penalized if he completes a throw he threw short to a WR that beat his man deep by 2 yds? Should his rating be allowed a boost from 1yd TD runs on QB sneaks?
And what happens to QBR if you lose your top WR? Or your team stinks? Does that mean you stink too if your QBR drops? I'm just not sure what that rating is trying to imply? What are we to make of it?

Like in the post from monkeyman576. Romo in '14 and Ryan in '16. Both good quarterbacks, not elite. Both happened to be on outstanding teams. Both saw Tom Brady and the Patriots win the SB.
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Old 10-20-2019, 03:34 PM   #349
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Just as an aside. Murray of the Cards is trash. I never thought he was an NFL QB coming in, but watching him confirms it. He's still a college QB. They hide his flaws with the run game, QB sneaks and short passes. The dude is not an NFL QB. I think the Cards will still beat the Giants because they suck even more than the Cards, but this guy is fools gold. Why they wasted a first overall on him just goes to show why that franchise is the worst in NFL history.

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Old 10-20-2019, 05:48 PM   #350
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So...........Deep in their territory, the Bears have a punt blocked by Orleans. the ball bounces into the end zone. On the ground & surrounded by Saints, the punter makes the decision to bat the ball on purpose out the back of the endzone in order to give up the safety & prevent a TD. Zebras throw a flag saying by rule that is illegal. And the penalty is......a safety.........

Query: What did they accomplish by having this rule? What did they prevent?
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Old 10-20-2019, 08:30 PM   #351
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I'm not sure how you're coming to the conclusion about Kyler Murray after X games. These are the rookie passing yards leaders:

Kyler Murray 1664
Gardner Minshew 1442
Daniel Jones 921

So maybe give the guy a chance?
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Old 10-20-2019, 08:34 PM   #352
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Doing awesome before SNF!

Week 7
KC(-3) @ DEN Pick: KC won(1-0)
LAR(-3) @ ATL Pick: LAR won(2-0)
MIA@BUF(-17) Pick: MIA won(3-0)
JAX(-4)@CIN Pick: JAX won(4-0)
MIN(-1)@DET Pick: MIN won(5-0)
OAK@GB(-4.5) Pick: GB won(6-0)
HOU@IND(-1) Pick: HOU loss(6-1)
ARI@NYG(-3) Pick: ARI won(7-1)
SF(-10)@WAS Pick: SF loss(7-2)
LAC@TEN(-2) Pick: LAC loss(7-3)
NO@CHI(-3.5) Pick: NO won(8-3)
BAL@SEA(-3.5) Pick: SEA loss(8-4)
PHI@DAL(-3) Pick: PHI
NE(-10)@NYJ Pick: NE

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Old 10-20-2019, 10:15 PM   #353
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U couldn't pay me to be a Charger fan. My heart doesn't need all of that grief.

Poor Charger fans. (If you still exist)

I will say I don't know how they reversed the 2nd one.
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Old 10-20-2019, 11:59 PM   #354
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https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...throwing-punch

https://youtu.be/79QxturUolohttps://...be/79QxturUolo

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Old 10-21-2019, 12:29 AM   #355
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If a man is guilty
4 what goes on inside of his mind,
then let me get the electric chair
4 all my future crimes.

- Prince
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Old 10-21-2019, 12:51 AM   #356
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__________________
If a man is guilty
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then let me get the electric chair
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Old 10-21-2019, 01:59 AM   #357
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I'm not sure how you're coming to the conclusion about Kyler Murray after X games. These are the rookie passing yards leaders:

Kyler Murray 1664
Gardner Minshew 1442
Daniel Jones 921

So maybe give the guy a chance?
I'll give the guy a chance, but not because of statistics. What I'm seeing from him is if his first read isn't there, he looks to take off or scramble for a busted play opportunity. His statistics doing this doesn't matter to me. It won't last long. But yeah, he may clean things up over time.
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Old 10-21-2019, 10:14 AM   #358
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Poor Charger fans. (If you still exist)

I will say I don't know how they reversed the 2nd one.
I went to a different video. One that didn't dim the screen when I paused it. He didn't get in. I lost 10 bucks on that game.
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Old 10-21-2019, 10:27 AM   #359
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And what happens to QBR if you lose your top WR? Or your team stinks? Does that mean you stink too if your QBR drops? I'm just not sure what that rating is trying to imply? What are we to make of it?

Like in the post from monkeyman576. Romo in '14 and Ryan in '16. Both good quarterbacks, not elite. Both happened to be on outstanding teams. Both saw Tom Brady and the Patriots win the SB.
So because the patriots have the best coach ever and a better defense it means that a different QB couldn't have had the better regular season? That's your premise?
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Old 10-21-2019, 10:31 AM   #360
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Just as an aside. Murray of the Cards is trash. I never thought he was an NFL QB coming in, but watching him confirms it. He's still a college QB. They hide his flaws with the run game, QB sneaks and short passes. The dude is not an NFL QB. I think the Cards will still beat the Giants because they suck even more than the Cards, but this guy is fools gold. Why they wasted a first overall on him just goes to show why that franchise is the worst in NFL history.
lol. The guy has played 7 games coming into the worst offense in the league and has already locked in a better record than last season. what does a player have to do to not be labelled a bust before half a season for you?

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