Football thoughts - week 17

[thehef]

Interesting tidbit from the Philly/Atl pregame show: Each of this weekend's matchup features a Super Bowl QB (winners Brady, Brees, Ben, and last year's runner-up Ryan) vs one with little-if-any postseason experience... Two of those SB QB's are heavy favorites. We'll see if that holds, and if the other two SB QB's make the difference in the other two tossups...

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by ukhotstove

Not sure about that, only 1 of the Steelers interceptions was in the Jags territory so nothing saying if the other 4 interceptions had not happened Pittsburgh would have scored on them and the Jags did score 17 points without the defence scoring. I’ve picked the Jags but like I previously said when an underdog beats the favourite then there’s a rematch usually the favourite takes the underdog apart but still think it’s a blinkered view people thinking the Steelers only have to turn up.

Blake is 27 of 57 for 245 yds. He ain't even avg 5 yds per completion. As long as the Steelers don't go Plaxico on themselves they will win. Bortles will provide all of the help they will need.

[Bluenoser]

Ok, who thought Jacksonville would put up 45 pts?

Ok, who thought Jacksonville would give up 42 pts?

That's what I like about Football - any given Sunday

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

Ok, who thought Jacksonville would put up 45 pts?

Ok, who thought Jacksonville would give up 42 pts?

That's what I like about Football - any given Sunday

Jags D is not what we thought they were.

Pitts D is worse than we thought they were.

Patriots will be in the SB again.

[ukhotstove]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

Ok, who thought Jacksonville would put up 45 pts?

Ok, who thought Jacksonville would give up 42 pts?

That's what I like about Football - any given Sunday

No to both but this game stunk of an upset, Jags had already beaten them easily in wk 5, Roethlisberger is now 1-4 in games against the Jags at home and I’ll say it again Pittsburgh’s 13-3 record was smoke and mirrors in those 13 wins 8 of them were by less than a TD, they only beat the Browns by 3 & 4 pts that’s the 0-16 Browns and they only beat the 4-12 Colts by 3 pts.

Will the Jags beat the Patriots, no because I don’t think the Patriots make the same mistakes. I don’t think they onside kick and I’m thinking that Brady uses the QB sneak, that’s the one I can’t understand with the Steelers you have probably the biggest and strongest QB but he doesn’t carry the ball on a yard or less.

[ukhotstove]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Jags D is not what we thought they were.

Pitts D is worse than we thought they were.

Patriots will be in the SB again.

The only defence I’ll give the Jags defence is that those Steelers passing TDs are incomplete at least 4/5 times out of 10, I don’t think you can cover them better to be honest.

[thehef]

Poor clock management (which is all too frequent in the NFL), some questionable play calls, and some questionable decisions by Will Farrell - I mean Ben Roethlisberger... But Tomlin's decision to try the onside kick was monumentally stupid. One of the dumber decisions I've ever witnessed, made worse by the magnitude of the game & situation.

None of that, however, takes away from the fact that Jacksonville came to play. Describing their performance vs Buffalo as lackluster would be giving them way too much credit. So what they did today was surprising, to me at least.

[MorseMoose]

#Skol

[Cobra Mgr]

The defensive gameplan for the Steelers was cow manure. Everyone knows Marone doesn't trust Bortles. Yet on obvious passing situations the Steelers let screens and flat routes continuously go uncovered.

Everyone made a fuss about the onside kick. But I only have a problem with the execution. The Pitt D hadn't demonstrated a Y chromosome all afternoon. I would have tried to avoid putting them back on the field too. The problem was the kicker not getting it 10 yds & the subsequent penalty that resulted.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Everyone made a fuss about the onside kick. But I only have a problem with the execution. The Pitt D hadn't demonstrated a Y chromosome all afternoon. I would have tried to avoid putting them back on the field too. The problem was the kicker not getting it 10 yds & the subsequent penalty that resulted.

Yep, the execution of the onside kick itself was brutal. But I would've definitely kicked deep. Taking everything into account - including that the Jags had mostly shredded the Steeler defense to that point - the odds are still much better of getting a three-and-out and getting the ball back with just under 2 minutes left, vs a successful onside kick. We're talking about a 15% of chance of recovering the onside kick, vs somewhere around a 50/50 chance (hard to say, but certainly better than 15%) that the Steelers D could stop the Jags in that situation. With momentum (after just having scored a TD) & the home field crowd, it's a no-brainer, IMO.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by thehef

Yep, the execution of the onside kick itself was brutal. But I would've definitely kicked deep. Taking everything into account - including that the Jags had mostly shredded the Steeler defense to that point - the odds are still much better of getting a three-and-out and getting the ball back with just under 2 minutes left, vs a successful onside kick. We're talking about a 15% of chance of recovering the onside kick, vs somewhere around a 50/50 chance (hard to say, but certainly better than 15%) that the Steelers D could stop the Jags in that situation. With momentum (after just having scored a TD) & the home field crowd, it's a no-brainer, IMO.

I disagree about it being a no-brainer. I think it was a situation of having to choose between 2 bad options. I don't believe either could have been faulted. And the momentum thing I completely disagree with. Steelers scored 2 TD's in the 4th and saw Jax score 6 immediately afterward. Momentum on offense never carried over to the D. The only disadvantage to a "correctly executed" failed onside kick was field position. Pitt was still going to have to get a 3 & out (and they barely did). Give credit to Jax PK for putting it thru in a tough stadium to kick in while Pitt's couldn't get it 10 yds.

Either way, Pitt's put themselves in a desperate situation due to their Plaxico syndrome & poor game planning on D. Take out the TO's & botched kick & it's a 14 pt Steeler victory.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

I disagree about it being a no-brainer. I think it was a situation of having to choose between 2 bad options.

Fair enough.

We know that the odds of recovering an expected onside kick are about 15%. We don't know what the odds are of the Steelers stopping the Jags had Pitt kicked deep. For me, however, it's got to be considerably better than 15%. I'd have to say about 45%-50% - and I like the idea of the game essentially on the line, the Steeler crowd going nuts, and Jax & Bortles having come this far but needing to do it one more time with all the pressure in the world on them - but who knows... At any rate, I'm assuming you must - by definition - think Pitt stopping Jax in that sitch is closer to 15%. So again, fair enough. Agree to disagree

[ukhotstove]

The Steelers were never going to recover that kick, Its that long ago since they did recover one I’m betting there wasn’t a player on there roster who had recovered a kick. You could also tell with the panic of the coach waving his arms about, players running on in the last second that an onside kick was a last second thought, also throw in the fact if you don’t recover it your giving a good kicker excellent field position. 15%? That game was wrapped up as soon as they said onside kick.

[Ragnar]

Will Marcus Williams be a Saint next season? He is the Vikings most valuable player in that game by whiffing on Diggs and taking out the only other player that could have tackled Diggs.

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Will Marcus Williams be a Saint next season? He is the Vikings most valuable player in that game by whiffing on Diggs and taking out the only other player that could have tackled Diggs.

He is in the best rookie DBs and per football outsiders could be a Pro a Bowl player off his rookie season.
He made a horrible mistake but getting rid of a rookie DB would compound the mistake.
31 other teams would love to have a good rookie defensive player on a rookie contract.

[TribeFanInNC]

I can't believe, for supposedly how important the position is in the NFL, the 4 QBs left are:

Tom Brady
Case Keenum
Nick Foles
Blake Bortles

[thehef]

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

I can't believe, for supposedly how important the position is in the NFL, the 4 QBs left are:

Tom Brady
Case Keenum
Nick Foles
Blake Bortles

Yep, interesting. However, it's more of a one-off than significant of anything, IMO. And had it not been for a fluke play, Drew Brees would be in that group and then it would be more-representative of a normal final-four QB list.

Along those lines, yesterday's result really sucked for Brees, who otherwise wrote a pretty brilliant entry in his career compilation: Bringing his team back from a 17-point second half road deficit in the playoffs. Like Tim Duncan's ultra-clutch shot in the 2004 NBA playoffs, it's now merely a footnote, undone through no fault of his own by a subsequent lucky play. But it is still no less impressive. Or at least it shouldn't be.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by thehef

Yep, interesting. However, it's more of a one-off than significant of anything, IMO. And had it not been for a fluke play, Drew Brees would be in that group and then it would be more-representative of a normal final-four QB list.

Along those lines, yesterday's result really sucked for Brees, who otherwise wrote a pretty brilliant entry in his career compilation: Bringing his team back from a 17-point second half road deficit in the playoffs. Like Tim Duncan's ultra-clutch shot in the 2004 NBA playoffs, it's now merely a footnote, undone through no fault of his own by a subsequent lucky play. But it is still no less impressive. Or at least it shouldn't be.

I think the Vikings had one timeout. If you look at the replay closely Diggs catches the ball with 4 seconds left. If Williams makes the immediate tackle I am sure they could have called timeout in time. The ball would be anywhere between the 34 and 32 yard line. Not a sure thing I know, but very makeable.

[rudel.dietrich]

I purchased Madden 18 for Xbox One at a 40% discount and I am really enjoying it.
I started a franchise with the Browns and by playing out the games from week to week I am learning the game and the players.
The Browns are awful but their defense is young and has some talent. But I will need multiple drafts to build up an offense. They have no QB and WRs and have a few holes on the line.
Also their special teams is pretty bad.


But despite an 0-16 real life record they have some pieces in place.
Two good HBs, a good D-Line, some young secondary players.
A good rookie TE and some good OL players.
Just a lot of holes that need to be filled via the draft and wise FA spending.
And of course I hope this first season is a disaster so I can have my pick of a top end QB is one is available.
But he will have no one to throw to.


I also have started plans on a new stadium and will keep the team in Cleveland.
All in all I am having a really fun time and playing out the full 60 minute games on simulation is getting me pretty accurate results.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

I purchased Madden 18 for Xbox One at a 40% discount and I am really enjoying it.
I started a franchise with the Browns and by playing out the games from week to week I am learning the game and the players.
The Browns are awful but their defense is young and has some talent. But I will need multiple drafts to build up an offense. They have no QB and WRs and have a few holes on the line.
Also their special teams is pretty bad.


But despite an 0-16 real life record they have some pieces in place.
Two good HBs, a good D-Line, some young secondary players.
A good rookie TE and some good OL players.
Just a lot of holes that need to be filled via the draft and wise FA spending.
And of course I hope this first season is a disaster so I can have my pick of a top end QB is one is available.
But he will have no one to throw to.


I also have started plans on a new stadium and will keep the team in Cleveland.
All in all I am having a really fun time and playing out the full 60 minute games on simulation is getting me pretty accurate results.

I used to love Madden. Wasted a lot of hours on it. But I loved the NCAA football franchise more. When they discontinued it, I lost interest.