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Old 04-11-2015, 03:49 PM   #1
skoormit
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Can't trade C- prospect for $1. Why?

I have a question about the AI trade evaluation.

Current league date is 1/1/2017. Here's a player in my minors:



His overall rating is 21. OSA thinks his potential is 28. My scout thinks his potential is 34. (Edit: I'm using the 20-80 scale.)

Clearly, he doesn't look like a future all-star. He might be a not-quite-average MLB player, if everything works out. Maybe a .250 hitter with 20HR at his peak, unless there's some unexpected talent development.

But he's better than a lot of guys in the minors, who have 20 or 21 potential, and not a single rating that projects as above average. At least Mr. Terry here has potential plus power.

But I don't need him on my roster, so I went to each team and tried to see what they would give me.

Turns out, they will give me less than nothing for him. When I offer him in exchange for $1 in cash, almost every team says "That's a very bad deal for us. I won't even bother discussing this." The only teams that don't say that are the ones that don't actually have any cash, so they can't even give a reaction. The one team that isn't outright laughing in my face is the Red Sox, who say "That's not a fair deal, you have to offer us some more."

My trade settings are Hard/Neutral, and evaluation settings are 40/30/20/10.

To get any team to provide a positive reaction, *I* have to give money to *them* in the deal. Some amount between $100k and $1M is enough for them to take this C- prospect off my hands.

My question is this: how does any of this make any sense? Why am I unable to get anything, not even one dollar, in return for this guy? Sure, he's a long shot to ever provide value to the MLB club. But he's got a better chance than tons of guys in every minor league system. He's only 20 years old, he just OPSed .930 in Rookie-league ball, and it costs nothing to roster him. What am I missing?

Last edited by skoormit; 04-11-2015 at 04:20 PM.
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Old 04-11-2015, 03:51 PM   #2
ezpkns34
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Just a heads up: if you set trade difficulty to Very Hard, then you'll run into the same thing when trying to move many blue chip prospects

Typically the only time the AI is willing to part with cash is when they're trading away a player that has a major league contract. And even then, depending on the player(s) you're sending them, they may not part with any cash

Last edited by ezpkns34; 04-11-2015 at 03:52 PM.
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Old 04-11-2015, 04:00 PM   #3
skoormit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ezpkns34 View Post
Just a heads up: if you set trade difficulty to Very Hard, then you'll run into the same thing when trying to move many blue chip prospects

Typically the only time the AI is willing to part with cash is when they're trading away a player that has a major league contract. And even then, depending on the player(s) you're sending them, they may not part with any cash
So it's just a limitation of the evaluation algorithm, then? If any cash at all is included, even just $1, the AI evaluates the deal differently?
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Old 04-11-2015, 04:03 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by skoormit View Post
So it's just a limitation of the evaluation algorithm, then? If any cash at all is included, even just $1, the AI evaluates the deal differently?
There's definitely something odd with the way the AI evaluates cash in trades (& it has been this way for years), but as for the reasons for that...that's above my pay grade
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Old 04-11-2015, 04:09 PM   #5
skoormit
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Originally Posted by ezpkns34 View Post
There's definitely something odd with the way the AI evaluates cash in trades (& it has been this way for years), but as for the reasons for that...that's above my pay grade
Well, okay, I can accept that. It is difficult to write an AI that can deal with the complexity of deals that involve differing asset types.

But I can't even trade my guy for any generic 25 yr old 20overall 20potential guy who hasn't even made it to AA.

It almost seems like the AI is assessing the value of my guy, then subtracting a million dollars, and that's what he will give in return.
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Old 04-11-2015, 04:19 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by skoormit View Post
Well, okay, I can accept that. It is difficult to write an AI that can deal with the complexity of deals that involve differing asset types.

But I can't even trade my guy for any generic 25 yr old 20overall 20potential guy who hasn't even made it to AA.

It almost seems like the AI is assessing the value of my guy, then subtracting a million dollars, and that's what he will give in return.
Yeh, if there are MiLB players you don't want, then you've got the following choices:
1. Just release them
2. Offer them with cash (for new 2015 league, $1M is enough) for other prospects/players
3. Either go into commish mode & force trades or set trade AI to Easy & offer AI teams trades for the prospect that would make sense for them (or that wouldn't make sense if you don't care about ripping off the AI)
4. Just keep the guys in your system anyway (this almost always leads to you then choosing Option #1 for them the following season)

Personally, the entire way OOTP handles finances is what I feel like has needed the most attention for awhile, but it appears that either nobody else feels that way or it's more hassle than it's worth to make improvements to it
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Old 04-11-2015, 10:10 PM   #7
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To be honest, I wouldn't take that guy if you tried to trade him to me. He "might" develop into a below average MLB player but what do I want him if that is his only upside? He's just taking away at bats from someone else. I undertand its only a $1 but that just a guy I wouldn't take so it's not unreasonable for the CPU not to want him...
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Old 04-11-2015, 10:35 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by majesty95 View Post
To be honest, I wouldn't take that guy if you tried to trade him to me. He "might" develop into a below average MLB player but what do I want him if that is his only upside? He's just taking away at bats from someone else. I undertand its only a $1 but that just a guy I wouldn't take so it's not unreasonable for the CPU not to want him...
Yeah that's how I see it. Turn the question around how many such prospects would you (the OP and others) take in reverse. I think not many.
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Old 04-12-2015, 12:33 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by majesty95 View Post
To be honest, I wouldn't take that guy if you tried to trade him to me. He "might" develop into a below average MLB player but what do I want him if that is his only upside? He's just taking away at bats from someone else. I undertand its only a $1 but that just a guy I wouldn't take so it's not unreasonable for the CPU not to want him...
You wouldn't take him for $1? Why not? Your minor league teams have no players with less potential than this guy?

I look around at the other teams' minor league systems and I see lots of guys with potential of just 20, at 25 years old. Why wouldn't an AI GM rather have this guy, and release one of his 25 yr olds that are clearly less likely to ever provide value?
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Old 04-12-2015, 12:53 AM   #10
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But wait, it gets worse.

With the trade difficulty on Very Hard, and eval still at 40/30/20/10, the Mariners (who still won't even discuss giving me $1 for this guy) are eager to trade me a MLB RP (Yoervis Medina) and $2.75M in cash. Medina has a 1-year contract (via arb) for $1.92M.

Medina isn't a bad pitcher, but this trade, coupled with their refusal to give me $1 for Terry, could only make sense if the Mariner's were trying to dump Medina's contract. But if that were the case, couldn't they just release Medina and cost themselves only $1.92M? Why are they willing to pay me at least $830k in surplus cash value to get Terry in exchange for Medina, but they won't give me $1 for Terry in a standalone deal?
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Old 04-12-2015, 12:57 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by skoormit View Post
You wouldn't take him for $1? Why not? Your minor league teams have no players with less potential than this guy?

I look around at the other teams' minor league systems and I see lots of guys with potential of just 20, at 25 years old. Why wouldn't an AI GM rather have this guy, and release one of his 25 yr olds that are clearly less likely to ever provide value?
I agree with you 100%, however with the trading on Hard, the AI values your players less and his players more, so from his viewpoint his player with 20 POT is better than the player you are offering. This is what you asked for by setting it to Hard. That way you must give more value to enact a trade.

Take off his skewed glasses by setting trading to Neutral and he should be more willing to trade his scrubs for your near-scrubs.
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Old 04-12-2015, 01:16 AM   #12
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Make a house rule: no cash in trades. The AI does not handle it well. And leave trading difficulty on Very Hard. At Neutral you can rip off the AI.
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Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 04-12-2015, 01:24 AM   #13
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The Neutral Trading setting is fair and balanced and you will not rip off the AI if you stick to 1 for 1 trades. The easiest way to take advantage of the AI on any trade setting is by giving them piles of warm bodies.
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Old 04-12-2015, 01:34 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by The Wolf View Post
Make a house rule: no cash in trades. The AI does not handle it well. And leave trading difficulty on Very Hard. At Neutral you can rip off the AI.
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The Neutral Trading setting is fair and balanced and you will not rip off the AI if you stick to 1 for 1 trades. The easiest way to take advantage of the AI on any trade setting is by giving them piles of warm bodies.
"Neutral" is a setting for Trading Preference (as opposed to favoring vets or prospects). Wolf, did you mean that, or did you mean "Average" trading difficulty?
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Old 04-12-2015, 01:38 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by majesty95 View Post
To be honest, I wouldn't take that guy if you tried to trade him to me. He "might" develop into a below average MLB player but what do I want him if that is his only upside? He's just taking away at bats from someone else. I undertand its only a $1 but that just a guy I wouldn't take so it's not unreasonable for the CPU not to want him...
He's still going to easily be better than 50-100 guys in your minors though. I can't see why you wouldn't take him for free?
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Old 04-12-2015, 01:41 AM   #16
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"Neutral" is a setting for Trading Preference (as opposed to favoring vets or prospects). Wolf, did you mean that, or did you mean "Average" trading difficulty?
Average, Neutral...the middle setting. Never use anything but Very Hard unless you really like ripping off the AI.
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Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 04-12-2015, 03:36 AM   #17
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I'd take this guy. I love hoarding even marginal talent. But he's not a catcher.
25 ability/25 arm? No thanks.
He's a third baseman.

Edit: And he's going to be 21 all of 2017? Holy hell I'd take this guy in a nanosecond. Stick him in St. Lucie, at third base. This is the type of guy I look for, tbh.
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Old 04-14-2015, 01:28 PM   #18
skoormit
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Make a house rule: no cash in trades. The AI does not handle it well. And leave trading difficulty on Very Hard. At Neutral you can rip off the AI.
I appreciate the advice, and I will probably abide by that house rule for the time being.

To be honest, I find it frustrating that the AI is so poor at trade valuation that we need to operate under house rules just to have a playable experience.

I know that it is very hard (or near impossible) to make an AI that is absolutely unexploitable by humans. But the AI trade reactions that I see fail to exhibit even elementary valuation rules.

Unless I'm missing something. Which is why I'm here asking.

To recap the situation:

AI will not give me $1 for Curtis Terry. Won't even discuss the idea. This indicates that the AI values Curtis Terry at either $0 or some negative amount. (While I find it hard to believe that he's not worth $1, I can accept that perhaps my scout thinks more highly of him than all the other team's scouts, and all the other teams think more highly of all of their own 1B/3B prospects than they think of Mr. Terry, and therefore no one wants Mr. Terry taking up valuable playing time.)

AI will give me Yoervis Medina and $2.75M in cash for Curtis Terry. This could only make sense (alongside the zero-or-negative value of Terry) if the AI places a value of $2.75M or more on getting rid of Medina. But Medina has a 1-year contract for $1.92M. If the AI values getting rid of him at $2.75M or more, they are better off by just releasing him outright than by trading him to me along with this much cash.

Can anyone provide a cogent explanation for the above scenario?
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Old 04-14-2015, 01:38 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by skoormit View Post
I appreciate the advice, and I will probably abide by that house rule for the time being.

To be honest, I find it frustrating that the AI is so poor at trade valuation that we need to operate under house rules just to have a playable experience.

I know that it is very hard (or near impossible) to make an AI that is absolutely unexploitable by humans. But the AI trade reactions that I see fail to exhibit even elementary valuation rules.

Unless I'm missing something. Which is why I'm here asking.

To recap the situation:

AI will not give me $1 for Curtis Terry. Won't even discuss the idea. This indicates that the AI values Curtis Terry at either $0 or some negative amount. (While I find it hard to believe that he's not worth $1, I can accept that perhaps my scout thinks more highly of him than all the other team's scouts, and all the other teams think more highly of all of their own 1B/3B prospects than they think of Mr. Terry, and therefore no one wants Mr. Terry taking up valuable playing time.)

AI will give me Yoervis Medina and $2.75M in cash for Curtis Terry. This could only make sense (alongside the zero-or-negative value of Terry) if the AI places a value of $2.75M or more on getting rid of Medina. But Medina has a 1-year contract for $1.92M. If the AI values getting rid of him at $2.75M or more, they are better off by just releasing him outright than by trading him to me along with this much cash.

Can anyone provide a cogent explanation for the above scenario?
Yes. Money & contracts are valued in a very complex way in trades, and also when the trade difficulty setting comes into play, the AI may not accept contracts that would seemingly make sense somewhat for them, this is to prevent making ripoffs harder.

In your case, I'd have to look at the league files, but something causes the AI to value the contract it loses (not only current year, but also arbitration estimates) pretty high because they likely have a proper replacement for the role lost in the bullpen.
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Old 04-14-2015, 02:50 PM   #20
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Thank you for the response, Markus. I know dev time is valuable and I greatly appreciate the time that you and your team invest with the player community.

Would you mind a couple quick follow-ups?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Money & contracts are valued in a very complex way in trades, and also when the trade difficulty setting comes into play, the AI may not accept contracts that would seemingly make sense somewhat for them, this is to prevent making ripoffs harder.
Does increasing the trading difficulty have an effect tantamount to increasing a discount amount that the AI applies to their end of trades? For example, the AI values an offered player at $3M, applies a discount of $1M, and will therefore offer no more than $2M for that player.

If something like that is the case, then perhaps the AI values Mr. Terry some amount less than the discount being applied, which is why I have to offer the AI money just to get them to take Terry.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
In your case, I'd have to look at the league files, but something causes the AI to value the contract it loses (not only current year, but also arbitration estimates) pretty high because they likely have a proper replacement for the role lost in the bullpen.
I'm trying to follow your logic about the AI placing a high value on the contract it loses. You are saying, I think, that the AI is willing to include more cash in a deal if it has an attractive replacement on hand for the outgoing player. That makes sense, certainly, but does the AI recognize that the maximum cash it should include for any outgoing player is the guaranteed value of that player's contract? In this case, the AI should not being willing to include more than $1.92M with Medina, because that is what it would cost them to release him outright.

If the AI does recognize that limit when it considers how much cash to include with a player, then it seems the AI is not applying the same discount on Mr. Terry that the AI seems to apply when I offer Mr. Terry in a straight-up deal. The AI is willing to add at least $830k (to the max $1.92M value of getting rid of Medina's contract) in this case in order to get Mr. Terry.


FWIW, I'm not doing anything out of the ordinary in my league settings. It's just an MLB 2015 start, simmed to 1/1/2017 before I took over a team. I'm using 40/30/20/10 for valuation and the scenario I've described is stable across difficulties from Average to Very Hard and across preferences from Neutral to Heavily Favor Prospects. I haven't tested it on difficulties easier than Average or with preferences towards veterans.
I'd be surprised if identical scenarios couldn't be easily recreated with a fresh league using the base MLB 2015 database.

Thanks, again, for your time.
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