My new Historical Random Debut (Starting in 1901 with 1984 stats output and strategy settings)

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

But then I scrolled down to the pitching staff and oh, my, there it is. Especially that bullpen. Brutal!

Yeah. I just threw up in my mouth a bit. I missed Burks, but the rest for me were all pretty mediocre. Barrett was averagey. Benzinger and Horn had some value, but didn't really play enough. The rest were kinda meh.

[actionjackson]

1906 Season/Postseason Recap:

NLCS:

The next two series I'll be looking at (NLCS and WS) were more...um...one-sided than the wonderful ALCS between the Tigers and the Americans. The Giants (103-59) faced off against the Phillies (94-68) in this series, and it was pretty much no contest after the first three innings of Game 1. In Game 1, back-to-back doubles by Bill Madlock and Dale Murphy made it 1-0 Phillies in the top of the first inning. They would erupt for four more runs in the third on a wild pitch with Murphy at the plate, followed by a Murphy RBI triple, an RBI double by Devon Travis, and capped off by an RBI double by C Jocko Fields. A 2-run HR by Scooter Gennett, and an RBI double by 1B Chuck Hinton carved into the Phillies lead in the fourth and made it 5-3. Dale Murphy answered that on the second pitch of the fifth inning with a leadoff HR to make it 6-3. That knocked starter Garrett Richards from the game. From there the Giant bullpen would shut things down with five shutout innings, 2 hits, 1 BB and 4 K. This afforded the offense a chance to get back in the game, and they took advantage of it. The bottom of the sixth saw Ian Happ score on a passed ball with Chuck Hinton at the plate. In the seventh SS Honus Wagner took Darryl Kile deep for a 2-run shot, and Ron Kittle would follow that up the next inning with a 2-run shot of his own off RP Ted Power to give the Giants the 8-6 lead that they would not relinquish.

In Game 2, a first inning sac fly by Gennett to score Wagner from third would get the Giants on the board first and the Phillies would never hold the lead in this one, as they were drubbed by the Giants 9-3. The Giants 14-hit attack was led by Gennett and Happ who went 2 for 3 with 2 runs, 1 HR, and 4 RBI, and 3 for 4 with 3 runs, 2 HR, and 3 RBI respectively in the rout. In fact the Giants would get multi-hit games from five players (Wagner, Gennett, Happ, Kittle, and 3B Roy Howell), and once again stellar relief, this time from Alejandro Pena and Ed Hodge. Two themes were emerging that would continue: 1) Wagner, Gennett, Happ, and Kittle were absolutely crushing the Phillies, and 2) the Giants' bullpen was absolutely locking up the Phillies with 11.1 shutout innings in the series, allowing 6 hits, with 1 BB, and 8 K.

The Phillies were hoping that the change of venue in Game 3 would help put some wind in their sails. Sadly for them, it did not. An RBI double by Gennett in the first inning to score C Chief Zimmer (who had reached on a bunt single), a grand slam by Wagner in the 2nd inning, and a solo HR by Chuck Hinton gave the Giants a 6-0 bulge that they would not surrender, as they cruised to a 9-4 victory. Once again the bullpen locked it down for SP Bert Inks, who allowed 4 runs in 5.2 IP. It was not looking good for the Phillies, and it wasn't about to get much better.

Game 4 saw a better start for the Phillies on a solo dinger by 1B Pete Runnels in the bottom of the first to put them up 1-0. The Giants would score the next six runs though and cruise to a 6-2 victory to ice the series in four straight. Wagner's two-run HR in the top of the 3rd started the onslaught, and a two-run double by Roy Howell in the eighth finished it off. The bottom of the eighth saw the Phillies cash a run on a fielder's choice grounder by Jean Segura, but it was a mere whimper, in a series that had started out promisingly with a 5-0 lead in Game 1. From that point on, the Phillies were outscored 32-10 in an absolutely thorough thrashing. MVP could've gone to any one of the quartet of Wagner, Gennett, Happ, or Kittle, and in the end the latter of the four was chosen for the honour. Pictures below:

[actionjackson]

1906 Season/Postseason Recap:

World Series:

The Tigers began this mauling of a series with a three-run 1st inning that set the tone for the whole series. An RBI single by LF Lefty O'Doul scored Craig Biggio (who had doubled), and following a Steve Garvey K, Trevor Story ripped one into the seats to give the Tigers a 3-0 lead. From there, they cruised to a 7-2 triumph, succeeding at what every team wants to do in the postseason, thereby guaranteeing at least a split on the road. Chuck Hinton hit a 2-run blast in the bottom of the second to bring the Giants back to a 1-run deficit, but Eppa Rixey (despite allowing 12 hits and chucking 151 pitches) would hold them in check the rest of the way, and Story would add a solo bomb in the 3rd, with Biggio capping things with a three-run tater in the sixth.

If things had been bad for the Giants in Game 1, it was kicked up a notch in Game 2 as the Tigers plated six in the top of the first on a two-run double by Story, an RBI single by 2B Bernie Allen, and a two-run double by RF Jon Nunnally. Even SP Chase Anderson got into the act with an RBI double to score Nunnally and close out the scoring. The Giants would answer with three runs in the bottom of the first on a 3-run jimmy jack by CF Ian Happ, but the six run first would hold up in an eventual 7-5 Tigers' win. Steve Garvey would add a solo bomb in the 5th to make it 7-4, and the Tigers were off to Motown fully in control of the series.

Somebody must've sabotaged the Giants' wakeup call at their hotel because they did. not. show. up. in Game 3. The Tigers didn't hit any homers, but they didn't need to, as they beat the everliving tar out of the Giants in this one with one in the 1st, one in the 2nd, four in the 3rd, and three more in the sixth, for a 9-0 whitewash. Bucky Walters went all the way for the Tigers, scattering nine hits (all singles) and striking out 11 against no walks. I mean...at least show some desperation Giants, or this is going to be over in a hurry.

A little more fight from the Giants in Game 4, but in the end more of the same. For once the Giants broke out on top (the first, and only time they would hold the lead in the series, and it was oh so brief - not exactly conducive to winning). An RBI double by Ian Happ and a sac fly from Chief Zimmer gave the visitors a 2-0 lead before the Tigers got their hacks in. That lead was erased in the bottom of the 2nd, when a bases loaded walk to Nunnally brought home Bernie Allen with the game tying run. A sac fly by Alexi Casilla put the Tigers ahead 3-2, and they would never look back, winning 10-5. Ian Happ busted his hump for the Giants, hitting two HR and a double in the loss. His solo blast in the fifth inning would bring the Giants back to a 5-4 deficit, but that was as close as they would get.

In the end, the Tigers outplayed the Giants in every sense of the word. They outscored them 33-12. They made zero fielding errors while the Giants made eight. The only departments that were close were hits and homeruns, as the Tigers outhit the Giants 46-41, and outhomered them 5-4. It was not close where it mattered though, and in the end the Tigers hoisted the flag for the second time in their history (having also won it all in 1902). Pictures of the trampling below:

[Edster007]

I see Garvey wins the MVP, lost him along the way after the Cliff Lee trade. End of the day how did Lee end up doing after the trade and when did Garvey move on the Motor city? I had a busy June IRL so I have only been skimming some posts

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Edster007

I see Garvey wins the MVP, lost him along the way after the Cliff Lee trade. End of the day how did Lee end up doing after the trade and when did Garvey move on the Motor city? I had a busy June IRL so I have only been skimming some posts

The Lee/Garvey trade happened just after the end of the 1903 season. So the three seasons since are what we have to go on for comparison. Difficult to compare a position player and a pitcher, but here goes nothing.

Cliff P Lee (1904-1906): 89 GS, 32-37, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.48 H/9, 0.95 HR/9, 1.74 BB/9, 5.31 K/9, 10.6 fWAR, 8.4 rWAR, -1.5 WPA

Looking at the sum of these three seasons, he still appears to be a mid-rotation starter, except that his most recent season was quite bad (by his standards): 25 GS, 9-12, 4.36 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 11.10 H/9, 0.68 HR/9, 2.08 BB/9, 4.31 K/9, 3.2 fWAR, 1.1 rWAR, -1.3 WPA

He'll probably be able to hold down a job until his control gives out. His stuff has obviously waned as at his peak, he was a 7.2 K/9 guy, and his K rate has cratered. He also had a .337 BABIP this year, which could be bad luck or bad fielders or hard contact. I suspect given his plummeting stuff that he was hit pretty hard though. He is now going into his age 37 season, and unless he pulls an out of nowhere comeback season, I suspect the end is nigh. He's now become one of those one year at a time free agent guys, so nobody's trusting him enough to give him a multi-year contract (and they probably shouldn't).

Steve Garvey has been traded twice more since this infamous trade. On July 7th, 1905, the Highlanders moved him with 3B Stan Hack to the Pirates for RP Rocky Stone, SP Brian J Anderson, and 1B/3B Hiroo Ishii (Spritze guy). Then on November 17th, 1905, he was traded by the Pirates to the Tigers for 1B/LF/CF Whitey Lockman, and SP Ryan Vogelsong. This either indicates that he's difficult to get along with, or lots of teams want his services, or maybe a little of both.

Steve Garvey (1904-1906): 479 GS (AVG: 160), 2,130 PA (AVG: 710 PA [very durable]), 242 R (AVG: 81), 594 H (AVG: 198), 93 2B (AVG: 31), 8 3B (AVG: 3), 59 HR (AVG: 20), 307 RBI (AVG: 102), 105 BB (AVG: 35), 228 K (AVG: 76), 29 SB (AVG: 10), 16 CS (AVG: 5), .297/.330/.441/.771, 8.2 WAR, 2.9 WPA, 112 wRC+, 113 OPS+.

Looking at the last three seasons, I'd say these two have been remarkably similar. Garvey's numbers wouldn't put him at the top of the class amongst 1B, probably closer to the middle to slightly above average. Lee's numbers are sort of averageish too, and Garvey (like Lee) had his worst season in 1906: .271/.312/.396/.709, 1.6 WAR, -1.0 WPA, 17 HR, 105 RBI, 95 OPS+, 95 wRC+. It looks like they're both on the downside of their careers, which is to be expected for Lee, but Garvey's only headed into his age 30 season. Garvey probably still has some good, possibly very good seasons ahead of him, but he's definitely not the same player he was from age 24 - age 27.

Garvey was the better bet in terms of longevity, but I'm not so sure he's produced more value than Lee has. He's a free agent right now, and still out on the market on March 1st (as is Lee), so we'll see how teams value him in the next little while.

[Dukie98]

Did Garvey enter the league mid-career, or was he drafted as a rookie? I ask because in my 48-team league, he's rated as a 3B, 2B, and SS - but not as a 1B, and he's been playing primarily at shortstop (about as effectively as you might imagine). I know he came up originally as a 3B, but it doesn't seem quite right that he's been playing in my league at a position he never played in reality, while he's not even rated at the position he's most associated with.

[Edster007]

I wouldn't be surprised if Garvey doesn't have some good years left. In the league I just scrapped he played 19 years and until year his last year he played 159-162 games a year. Power dropped a bit but ended with .304/.337/.451/.788 352 HR's and 1742 RBI. He was inducted into the HOF in his third year of eligibility.

[Edster007]

Originally Posted by Dukie98

Did Garvey enter the league mid-career, or was he drafted as a rookie? I ask because in my 48-team league, he's rated as a 3B, 2B, and SS - but not as a 1B, and he's been playing primarily at shortstop (about as effectively as you might imagine). I know he came up originally as a 3B, but it doesn't seem quite right that he's been playing in my league at a position he never played in reality, while he's not even rated at the position he's most associated with.

He was drafted at age 19 in mine and at the age of 23 became a full time first baseman (although in some years he did log 9-12 games at 3B)

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Dukie98

Did Garvey enter the league mid-career, or was he drafted as a rookie? I ask because in my 48-team league, he's rated as a 3B, 2B, and SS - but not as a 1B, and he's been playing primarily at shortstop (about as effectively as you might imagine). I know he came up originally as a 3B, but it doesn't seem quite right that he's been playing in my league at a position he never played in reality, while he's not even rated at the position he's most associated with.

Sort of mid-career, but towards the beginning of his career. His debut season (the inaugural season of 1901) in my league was his age 24 season. IRL, his debut season (brief as it was) was his age 20 season.

What you'll get for fielding ratings probably depends a lot on what you select for "Base fielding ratings on...". This setting can be found at Game > Game Settings > League Settings > Historical > Historical Player Ratings. Mine is set to Entire Career for both Fielding Ratings and Pitcher Stamina. I also use 5-year double weighted recalc + player development, base my ratings on Real Stats, and base my potential ratings on Remaining Years of Career. Under no circumstances should he be rated at 2B or at SS, and he should definitely be rated at 1B and 3B, and possibly LF (7 GS in 1973 IRL). Not sure what's going on there and would need to know more about your settings to figure it out.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Edster007

He was drafted at age 19 in mine and at the age of 23 became a full time first baseman (although in some years he did log 9-12 games at 3B)

In my league, he has spent all but one inning at 1B (no time at DH either). That one inning, he played at 3B, but he has never started there.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Edster007

I wouldn't be surprised if Garvey doesn't have some good years left. In the league I just scrapped he played 19 years and until year his last year he played 159-162 games a year. Power dropped a bit but ended with .304/.337/.451/.788 352 HR's and 1742 RBI. He was inducted into the HOF in his third year of eligibility.

Personally I like to see better On-Base ability (i.e. please don't make too many outs), and Slugging ability out of my first basemen. He showed some power early on, but that seems to be dipping lately. The latest season with the .271/.312/.396/.709 slash line is particulary worrisome and un-first basemanlike to me. He seems to always find a way to drive in runs, but is that placement in the batting order or is it part of his skill set? I would say it's more likely the former just from looking at his split stats from 1906.

Interestingly enough when he was in Close/Late situations, his ability to get on base isolated from his batting average went up considerably, and his isolated power dipped as well as his .243/.333/.345/.678 slash line suggests. His slash line was up a tick with men in scoring position at .283/.335/.392/.726, but I don't see that as statistically significant relative to his overall slash line. He did a ton of damage with the bases loaded (in a very small sample size of 19 PA) with a .400/.368/.800/1.168 slash line which helped him collect 19 of his 105 RBI. In innings 7-9, he hit .242/.316/.337/.653.

On the positive side, he got better as the situation went from 0 outs to 1 out to 2 outs. His batting average was exactly the same at .271 in all three situations, but his on-base, slugging and (of course) OPS numbers went up as it moved from 0 to 1 out, and up again as it moved from 1 to 2 outs. In "High Leverage" situations he was kind of abysmal at (.232/.294/.310/.604). I suspect his RBI had more to do with the fact that 665 of his 733 PA (about 91%) happened in the cleanup spot, and the other 68 happened in either the three or the five spot. Those are all thought of as RBI slots, and he was on a team that scored 804 runs for the season. You've still got to drive in those runs, and he did go over 100 RBI for the fourth time in his career, so there's that, but I think the Tigers could have done better with Biggio, or Lefty O'Doul, or Trevor Story (who interestingly enough was traded in another blockbuster after the season - see post #217), or Bernie Allen, or even (yeesh!) Ty Wigginton in that spot, but they chose Garvey, and he benifited from that choice.

[JaBurns]

The Left Arm of God did make it into HOF first ballot 99.8% of votes. A current investigation is ongoing to find out the voters who left him off their ballot. They will immediately have their voting privileges revoked while other punishments are considered including exile.
Reached 1920 and have decided to follow the strategy and financials year by year. I have a backup just in case I mess this up, or I start again.
Do I recalc the LTMs every year on the day before Opening Day?

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by JaBurns

The Left Arm of God did make it into HOF first ballot 99.8% of votes. A current investigation is ongoing to find out the voters who left him off their ballot. They will immediately have their voting privileges revoked while other punishments are considered including exile.
Reached 1920 and have decided to follow the strategy and financials year by year. I have a backup just in case I mess this up, or I start again.
Do I recalc the LTMs every year on the day before Opening Day?

I don't use recalc, or auto-calc. I have all those boxes unchecked (financials, strategy, PCMs, LTMs, Lock league total stats etc). I simply enter "1984" (enter whatever year you want) in the "Totals from Year:" box on the day before Opening Day, and off I go. Works like a charm.

EDIT: I do use recalc of course. 5-year, double weighted.

[Edster007]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

Personally I like to see better On-Base ability (i.e. please don't make too many outs), and Slugging ability out of my first basemen. He showed some power early on, but that seems to be dipping lately. The latest season with the .271/.312/.396/.709 slash line is particulary worrisome and un-first basemanlike to me. He seems to always find a way to drive in runs, but is that placement in the batting order or is it part of his skill set? I would say it's more likely the former just from looking at his split stats from 1906.

Interestingly enough when he was in Close/Late situations, his ability to get on base isolated from his batting average went up considerably, and his isolated power dipped as well as his .243/.333/.345/.678 slash line suggests. His slash line was up a tick with men in scoring position at .283/.335/.392/.726, but I don't see that as statistically significant relative to his overall slash line. He did a ton of damage with the bases loaded (in a very small sample size of 19 PA) with a .400/.368/.800/1.168 slash line which helped him collect 19 of his 105 RBI. In innings 7-9, he hit .242/.316/.337/.653.

On the positive side, he got better as the situation went from 0 outs to 1 out to 2 outs. His batting average was exactly the same at .271 in all three situations, but his on-base, slugging and (of course) OPS numbers went up as it moved from 0 to 1 out, and up again as it moved from 1 to 2 outs. In "High Leverage" situations he was kind of abysmal at (.232/.294/.310/.604). I suspect his RBI had more to do with the fact that 665 of his 733 PA (about 91%) happened in the cleanup spot, and the other 68 happened in either the three or the five spot. Those are all thought of as RBI slots, and he was on a team that scored 804 runs for the season. You've still got to drive in those runs, and he did go over 100 RBI for the fourth time in his career, so there's that, but I think the Tigers could have done better with Biggio, or Lefty O'Doul, or Trevor Story (who interestingly enough was traded in another blockbuster after the season - see post #217), or Bernie Allen, or even (yeesh!) Ty Wigginton in that spot, but they chose Garvey, and he benifited from that choice.

It is placement in the batting order for sure. Look at him IRL .294/.329/.446/.775 272 HR 1308 RBI. He was glued to the 3 hole even with the Padres when his power was all but gone but I guess to be fair the Padres weren't loaded with power-Nettles and Garvey passed their prime along withMcReynolds, Carmelo Martinez and Terry Kennedy

[Dukie98]

Originally Posted by Edster007

It is placement in the batting order for sure. Look at him IRL .294/.329/.446/.775 272 HR 1308 RBI. He was glued to the 3 hole even with the Padres when his power was all but gone but I guess to be fair the Padres weren't loaded with power-Nettles and Garvey passed their prime along withMcReynolds, Carmelo Martinez and Terry Kennedy

Fun fact: Garvey received MVP votes in 1984 even though five NL pitchers (Rick Rhoden, Rick Mahler, Eric Show, Tim Lollar, and Dan Schatzeder) had more offensive WAR than he did (0.5 oWAR), as he hit .284/ .307/ .373, and for good measure, hit into the most double plays in the league.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...-batting.shtml

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Dukie98

Fun fact: Garvey received MVP votes in 1984 even though five NL pitchers (Rick Rhoden, Rick Mahler, Eric Show, Tim Lollar, and Dan Schatzeder) had more offensive WAR than he did (0.5 oWAR), as he hit .284/ .307/ .373, and for good measure, hit into the most double plays in the league.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...-batting.shtml

He was quite the charmer. I can see him being able to charm some baseball writers into voting for him.

[actionjackson]

I've received some interest via PM re: my draft method, so I figured I'd post my spreadsheet here, so folks can check it out and see if they wish to use it or not. Currently it's 118 kb in .ods (Open Office) form, but when converted to .csv form it shrinks to 87 kb for some reason. I use my formula to determine the draft order. In the event of a tie, the draft value for the player in the default stats folder master.csv file (DDV in my spreadsheet) is the tiebreaker. If it's still tied, the tiebreaker is the draft value from the Spritze DB master.csv file (SDV in my spreadsheet) is used. So far, this has resolved all ties that I've seen. If it doesn't in the future, I guess I'd go to personal preference or something.

When I bring in a Spritze player (either someone who played in MLB who has some missing ratings [usually fielding ratings, sometimes hold rating for pitchers] via the default database), I take the player's ranking in the Spritze draft value column. The tiebreaker is the default draft value, and then the formula. Any players that didn't play in MLB will have zeroes in these columns, so they probably (but not necessarily) will fall to the bottom among the tied players. In cases where I have players who have no defensive ratings or no hold ratings, and they aren't in the Spritze database (usually players who debuted in 2016 or later), I sink them to the bottom of the draft. Anyway, here it is and if you have any questions fire away:

EDIT 1) The three stats I use are fWAR, rWAR, and rWAA (fangraphs Wins Above Replacement, bb-ref Wins Above Replacement, bb-ref Wins Above Average). I multiply Wins Above Average by 1.8 thanks to the work of this guy (who's an OOTP forum member, just not very active). How he gets to 1.8 is explained here. The reason I add value to Wins Above Average is that an average MLB player has more value than a replacement level MLB player, so it needs to be more highly valued.

2) N.B.: In the inaugural draft, the stats are calculated by the player's performance from his age at debut in my league through the end of his career. That's how a 20-year old Dale Murphy goes in the 1st round, while a 36-year old Lou Gehrig goes in the 28th round. 20-year old Murphy has his whole career ahead of him, while 36-year old Gehrig is about to die a horrific death. We all know that Gehrig was a far better overall player than Murphy, but he wasn't in the years that we're looking at. You want this because Gehrig's draft value will put him ahead of Murphy, but obviously he isn't going to be a better player than Murphy. Not sure how the inaugural draft would go without the use draft value box checked. Just know that it would have Gehrig ahead of Murphy if it were.

[actionjackson]

One other thing about my draft value method is that catchers kind of get a raw deal due to less playing time than other position players (although Yogi did manage to go 1st overall in my 1906 draft). Also relief pitchers will come out less valuable than starting pitchers, but I'm OK with that because it means they'll (for the most part, outside of the reeeally good ones) fall below starting pitchers in the draft. Players losing RL seasons to military service are not adjusted for either, which is unfortunate, but it would be quite difficult to do unless I was to insert average seasons for the missing seasons. But then what do you do for players who missed seasons due to injuries/ineffectiveness? Postseason performance is also not included. I'm big on sample size, and those sample sizes are very small. What about David Ortiz you ask? Massive outlier I answer. Those are the limitations of my method (that I know of). Of course the anti-WAR (WAR, what is it good for?...) people will argue that the entire method is limited and flawed, but that's OK by me. I'll let them use the game's draft AI or historical draft values, or come up with their own methods of evaluating players careers if they want to.

[JaBurns]

Learned another good thing today, Wes Ferrell hit 3 out in one game in my sim. Seemed odd to me, so off to baseballreference.com we go, he actually hit 7 in one season during his career. Looks like he was used as a PH.

Anyone have similar results with Mr. Ferrell?

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by JaBurns

Learned another good thing today, Wes Ferrell hit 3 out in one game in my sim. Seemed odd to me, so off to baseballreference.com we go, he actually hit 7 in one season during his career. Looks like he was used as a PH.

Anyone have similar results with Mr. Ferrell?

Ferrell was a terrific hitter and a very underrated pitcher. Yes he had a 4.04 ERA, but he pitched in an extremely offensive era (1927-1941), and because of that he had an ERA+ of 116. Just to put that in perspective, Jack Morris just went into the HoF with a 105 ERA+, and (not that he ever had a chance to showcase it) he was nowhere near Ferrell's hitting ability. He might've been able to be the Shohei Ohtani of his day had they given him a chance. A 2.4 bWAR with the Red Sox in 1935, as a hitter alone. Gee-hee-hee-heezus!