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OOTP 18 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 04-06-2017, 04:59 AM   #1
italyprof
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1962 Mets do over 2.0

So, other times I had the idea, which I posted elsewhere on this site but never got finished, of giving the expansion 1962 Mets a do-over, and to take on the challenge of whether I could turn them into a respectable team, or even a competitor, on some other basis, or schedule, than actually happened with the Miracle 1969 team (though I do still have great affection for that team, the first one I ever followed, at age 9).

But the problem with doing it as it occurred historically is, predictably, that it gets boring real quick: losing almost every game gets old fast. If you go with the expansion draft as it happened historically, you occasionally find a mediocre player or two that weren’t in the original draft, but otherwise the draft choices are nearly pre-selected – you either draft someone Houston got who is marginally better, or the people the Mets drafted.
The Mets did have a few decent seasons from players here and there, but the problem is that those players last a single year and slide back, or retire – so Richie Ashburn and Gene Woodling are great OBP men, but 1962 was the end for them. Gil Hodges hit well in a very part time role, but also ended his career right afterward, and Felix Mantilla or Frank Thomas in 1962 again had single useful years but not even regular contributions to make. The league did not give them much to work with.
But messing with the draft parameters by allowing fewer protected players on the expansion protection lists, or by allowing auto-protect only for players with a single year of pro experience or none at all, led, when I experimented, to ridiculously rich draft pools – Bobby Richardson and Willie Stargell were suddenly available. To have that kind of expansion draft pool seemed to violate the spirit of the game here.
So, I came up with a cheat that split the difference in an acceptable way: I started the game in 1962, with the four expansion teams – Angels, Senators, Mets and Colt 45s already in existence with rosters. Then I eliminated all four, making their players into free agents. THEN I re-created all four by expanding the league (I had unclicked the option to expand the league automatically, so I could control the expansion schedule). I allowed the usual 15 players to be protected in the subsequent expansion draft, now one for four teams and not just two, but allowed auto-protect only for players with 2 years or fewer.
This move enabled me to have a draft of mediocre players with the occasional prospect, and to then have all 20 teams, including the four expansion ones, participate in a free agent draft for the players previously with the original four expansion teams I had eliminated.
In the expansion draft we got the usual people near, but fewer that were at the end of their careers, and were able to pick up Tommie Agee, Denis Menke, Cookie Rojas, Max Alvis, Jim Perry, and Sam McDowell, all of whom can play well in future seasons. The rest of the roster was retreads.
In the free agent draft that followed, Dean Chance was available when it came our turn and we drafted him, but then traded him and three other players for Jim Kaat. This gives us an eventual front three of Kaat, McDowell and Jim Perry. We obtained Roy Face in another trade to have some semblance of a bullpen, but except for long relief and spot starts from Dallas Green that is about all we got.

Our starting lineup on Opening Day, 1962, then, is:
Against LH pitchers:
Chuck Hiller 2B
Ruben Amaro SS
Vic Power 1B
Lou B. Johnson RF
Max Alvis 3B
Gino Cimoli CF
Mike Hershberger LF
Doc Edwards C

Against RH pitchers
Chuck Hiller 2B
Ruben Amaro SS
Frank Torre 1B
Charlie Maxwell RF
Max Alvis 3B
Marty Keough LF
Mike Hershberger CF
Russ Nixon C

The starting rotation is
Jim Kaat
Al Jackson
Hank Aguirre
Jim Perry
Sam McDowell

The pre-season prediction of the AI is that we will win 68 games in 1962, finishing last.

I will keep you all posted as to how we do.

Last edited by italyprof; 04-06-2017 at 05:19 AM.
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Old 04-06-2017, 09:51 AM   #2
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Interesting as I started a game in 1955, simmed to 1961, and then took over the Houston Colt 45's. I make the rules for the expansion draft even more challenging, as I do 20 players protected, and four years or under for experience. Using 15 is too unrealistic. I know it can get tough to hang in there since there's no free agency, but I tried to find some decent players in the Rule V draft.

I just finished my first season, and Houston won 48 games, the Mets won 41. And the year before that, the Washington Senators only won 38. I like this challenge though. I'm an old guy, and a big Phillies fan, and my very first game I attended was at Connie Mack stadium as the Phils took on Houston.
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Old 04-06-2017, 07:18 PM   #3
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progen, you are a more disciplined player than I am.

I did have a moment of thinking "well, maybe I overdid it, making it too easy" when we won our first two games. But we then lost 6 straight and I started worrying we would never win again. We got killed by the Pirates three straight for instance. But we won a couple straight from the Cards and we are 4-6. Not the same as starting really from the bottom of the universe, as happens in reality to expansion teams most of the time, but fun, and we are bad enough that it will be a challenge to improve and build a winner if I can. Good luck with your teams.
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Old 04-06-2017, 07:47 PM   #4
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I don't think you made it too easy. Your everyday players are pretty ordinary. Your pitching might be better than a normal expansion team, but not overpowering by any means. Good luck with this team.
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Old 04-06-2017, 08:35 PM   #5
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Well, if OOTP could actually simulate an expansion draft correctly, then 15 players protected wouldn't be easy at all

http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/...psu78qi2ud.png


If you read the link, you'd see that making an expansion team is much more of a challenge if done correctly, because the teams drafting are forced to take one player off of each MLB team, that would be a single round and each expansion team would have 14 players, then teams are allowed to add 3 more guys to their protection list and the process repeats.

In my HSBL Online league we just did the expansion draft and teams were allowed to protect 24 players (3 year auto)
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Last edited by Painmantle; 04-06-2017 at 08:36 PM.
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Old 04-08-2017, 12:39 PM   #6
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And the reason I do four years or less, is because when I did a modern game, simmed seven seasons for some history, and then added two teams, when I left it on default for three years or less, there were young studs available, that would never be there in real life, and would've made the game less of a challenge. So I always do four years now. Hey, for historical though, take my lumps early, and hope that through the draft, waiver wire, and rule V draft, I can have a halfway competitive team.
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Old 04-08-2017, 04:39 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by progen View Post
And the reason I do four years or less, is because when I did a modern game, simmed seven seasons for some history, and then added two teams, when I left it on default for three years or less, there were young studs available, that would never be there in real life, and would've made the game less of a challenge. So I always do four years now. Hey, for historical though, take my lumps early, and hope that through the draft, waiver wire, and rule V draft, I can have a halfway competitive team.
Yeah, I think protecting 20 and 4yr auto or 24 and 3 yr auto work out to about the same thing in general. in both scenarios the expansion teams would look very similar. One preserves more youth, the other just gives a little more flexability to the protecting teams, and in an online league I choose to go with the flexibility of the 24/3 system.
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Old 04-10-2017, 11:16 AM   #8
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Thanks all for interesting ideas. The draft could be made more realistic if I draft for all expansion teams for instance. Thanks Orcin, your comment is reassuring. I exactly wanted ordinary players with some fans of life for the future. The 1962 mets are currently 10-12.
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Old 04-10-2017, 07:51 PM   #9
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Would love to have "Sudden" Sam and "Kitty" Kaat in my rotation. Kaat won 18 games in 1962, although it was with the Twins. Let's see what he does with those Mets. And even Perry who won 12 that year with a mediocre Indians team.

I had Torre with Houston that first year and in 76 games he hit .138 and I eventually released him. I also picked up Warren Spahn late in the year, hoping it would boost my fan base some. The old man(40) went 1-9 in 17 starts. In real life he won 18, but with a much better Braves team. I've been playing another game starting with the 1945 Phillies, but maybe I'll go back to this one and we can compare notes.

Hey, and I will backtrack a minute, as I too had Jim Perry. Picked him up off waivers, and he went 10-4 with 20 saves in 63 games. Not bad for a team that only won 48.

Last edited by progen; 04-10-2017 at 08:01 PM.
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Old 04-13-2017, 07:51 PM   #10
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So...we completed 1962, which was fun for the first half, as we flirted with .500. But injuries to mostly everyone on our young staff, and to some of our old fuddyduddies (Charlie Maxwell went down 3 or 4 times for one reason or another).

The 1962 NY Mets as amended by my changed expansion draft set-up went 68-94, finishing 8th, ahead of the Milwaukee Braves, who played most of the season without Henry Aaron, and the Chicago Cubs.

With injuries at one time or another to Jim Perry - who is out until early 1963, Jim Kaat for a few weeks, Al Jackson and Dallas Green, who along with Vinegar Bend Mizell was intended to be a spot starter and insurance policy against injuries to starters, as well as some other minor injuries to staff and position players, we faded badly in the second half and needed to hold things together with scotch tape. I played about one-third of the games through on the season, playing every inning, and "simmed" through one week at a time so I could make adjustments frequently through the other two-thirds.

Not too many highlights to talk about - Kaat went 11-8 with a 3.50 ERA before going down for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Reliever Roy Face actually led the staff in wins going 12-6, 2.92 ERA with 16 saves. Al Jackson went 10-12 before injuries ended his season as well. Dallas Green before he was injured for the rest of the season as well, and Vinegar Bend Mizell combined for 26 starts, though neither began the season in the rotation. Without them we could not have even fielded a team one day in five, and went a combined 7-17. Hank Aguirre went 8-11 and just before the trade deadline we had to, ironically, trade Gary Kolb, a catcher for our AAA club for Jay Hook, so bad was our need for a starter with all the rotation regulars going down one after the other and the rest suffering from fatigue. Hook was a starter for the original 1962 Mets. So the AI of OOTP had its revenge on me.

Among position players, Rookie Third Baseman Max Alvis, who started the season very poorly, turned his season around in May and ended up at .296 with 18 home runs, and decisively became our third baseman for the coming years. (having a third baseman already puts us ahead of the original Mets, who did not really have one until...um, David Wright? No, Robin Ventura I think, though Ray Knight gets honorable mention, before that? Not so much at third).

Shortstop Ruben Amaro had a .359 OBP and 2B Chuck Hiller hit .280, so we have people on base sometimes at the top of the order. Left fielder Marty Keogh hit .290 and with 11 home runs was the only other member of the team after Alvis to have double-digit homers. We need power-hitting outfielders and a first baseman very badly. Catcher Russ Nixon hit .299, but had to platoon with rookie Chris Cannizzaro who, having been obtained in the Rule 5 draft had to be on the roster all season, but did not produce much.

Gino Cimoli and Charlie Maxwell and Mike Hershberger, which is to say 3 of our four starting OFs along with Keogh, were all injured for months at a time. So our OF production was very substandard. All three are aging anyway and we need to make OF and 1B priorities for our draft picks, since our starting staff is young, and if they can stay healthy should be a good staff in coming years, and Alvis, along with Cookie Rojas and Denis Menke, both of whom got some playing time due to minor injuries or fatigue by veteran starters at their positions give us a good infield with two good catchers for the next few years.

Tommie Agee, our top OF prospect is considered to be 3-4 years away from the big leagues. We need help now.
We could only envy established winning teams like AL and NL champs the White Sox and Giants for 1962, who face each other in the upcoming World Series and wait for the future. Harmon Killebrew of the Twins hit 60 home runs, just one short of Roger Maris' record from last season. Maris and Mantle hit 46 and 45 respectively for the third-place Yankees. Dick Stuart led the NL with 50 for Pittsburgh. Tommy Davis, .362 and Frank Malzone, .341 led the two leagues in Batting. Sandy Koufax won 20 games for the Dodgers and led the NL with a 2.21 ERA and Ken Johnson's 2.20 ERA for Baltimore was the best in the majors. Bill Monboquette won 24 games for Boston and Juan Marichal won 23 for the pennant winning Giants.

Unfortunately, none of those guys played for us. Now to the 1962 rookie draft.
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Old 04-13-2017, 09:01 PM   #11
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Nice write up! Not a bad year, and at least you have some "keepers". I just finished my third season with the Colt 45's, and we definitely took a step backwards. From 48 wins the first season, to 51 the second, dropped to a dreadful 44 this season. Injuries were key, and players terribly underperforming. One bright spot was in the 1963 draft, I took Steve Carlton number one. As a Phillies fan, he was the man when I was growing up. Will never forget 1972 when he won 27 games, while the team only won 59.

I'm turning 62 tomorrow, and I grew up with many of these players, and playing through this league brings back many fond memories of players I idolized as a kid. Johnny Callison for sure, as well as Mays of course. Sad to realize that many of these players are gone now. OOTP allows me to live some of my past, and it's amazing the memories that will pop up when I see a players name.
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Old 04-13-2017, 09:27 PM   #12
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Our top draft picks:

Jim Wynn
Jim Ray Hart
Sam Bowens
Jim Duckworth


We may try to get Hart to learn to play 1B to keep Alvis at 3B. If that does not work out, we will have to trade one of them, probably Alvis but he performed well as a rookie. Wynn is immediately called up to NY where we need immediate help in the OF. We are also calling up some rookies from AAA - Mike dela Hoz, Al Weis and Doc Edwards, sending Chris Cannizzaro down to AAA.
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Old 04-14-2017, 09:35 AM   #13
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Italyprof,

Just turned 62 today, so I grew up in the 60's and 70's with some bad Phillies teams, but the best game I ever saw was when my dad took me to Connie Mack Stadium on August 2nd, 1970 to see the Phils and the Giants. The Giants had Mays, McCovey, Jim Ray Hart, and the Phillies were down 6-3 in the bottom of the 9th when Tony Taylor stepped to the plate with the bases loaded and hit a grand slam to win the game. I will never forget that game and how excited 10,000 fans were on that day. That was the last year for Connie Mack Stadium as the Phils moved into "lovely" Veterans Stadium the following year.
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Old 04-14-2017, 04:12 PM   #14
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Italyprof,

Just turned 62 today, so I grew up in the 60's and 70's with some bad Phillies teams, but the best game I ever saw was when my dad took me to Connie Mack Stadium on August 2nd, 1970 to see the Phils and the Giants. The Giants had Mays, McCovey, Jim Ray Hart, and the Phillies were down 6-3 in the bottom of the 9th when Tony Taylor stepped to the plate with the bases loaded and hit a grand slam to win the game. I will never forget that game and how excited 10,000 fans were on that day. That was the last year for Connie Mack Stadium as the Phils moved into "lovely" Veterans Stadium the following year.
What a game that must've been to see in person!
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1...020PHI1970.htm
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