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Old 02-29-2020, 11:55 AM   #1
BIGSIX
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What Scouting Accuracy do you use?

I am looking to build in a fog of war for my management play in OOTP. I find myself not feeling the need or desire to play a poorer rated player over a higher rated player even if the higher rated one is preforming poorly. Logic leads me to feel that over time the law of averages will win out and the higher rated player will out preform the lower rated one.

I can "pretend" that my 5 star guy is in a slump and needs time on the bench to reflect upon his poor play and I need to put my "hot hitting" 3 star player into his spot in the line up but my head tells me this is nonsense and the statistical best move is to continue to play my 5 star guy.

This kind of takes the fun of management out of the game for me. Seems that I just need to plug and play my best rated players as much as possible.

One way around this I suppose is to turn off most all of the ratings and then I would be forced to rely on just the statistical performance of my players to decide how to play them. This isn't bad but I miss seeing alot of the good stuff that rounds out the player profile page.

My other thought is to set the Scouting Accuracy to Low or Very Low. Then when I am comparing my 5 star guy to my 3 star guy it may be that the 5 star guy is "Really" a 3or4 and the 3 star guy could "Really" be a 4or5. Then deciding to play the 3 guy over the 5 guy might not be as crazy as I would normally think.

The weaker scouting setting would still give me a rough idea of the skill of my players I would think. The 5 star guys hopefully would certainly be better than the 1 and 2 star rated guys. ( My scouts can't be that blind, Can They?)

So what do you guys think?
How do you play it?
Does the Scouting Accuracy setting effect the AI also? (Do they then make mistakes in valuing their talent? I would hope the setting just effects my view of the players.)
Are there better way of creating the fog of war view of your players?
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Old 02-29-2020, 02:31 PM   #2
mytreds
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I used to use normal, but lately I’ve been lazy and just use 100% accuracy
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Old 02-29-2020, 07:32 PM   #3
NoOne
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turn off ratings and you are forced to use the stats -- which lag behind any ratings changes, assuming its a large enough sample to begin with to make it useful

lots of fog of war there. more than real life in many ways...

i think even if you reduce the accuracy, MLB players still stay pretty obvious. likely need a bit more time for the youngens to show themselves, but mainly will impact guessing on younger prospects.

Last edited by NoOne; 02-29-2020 at 07:45 PM.
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Old 02-29-2020, 10:03 PM   #4
BIGSIX
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Quote:
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turn off ratings and you are forced to use the stats -- which lag behind any ratings changes, assuming its a large enough sample to begin with to make it useful

lots of fog of war there. more than real life in many ways...

i think even if you reduce the accuracy, MLB players still stay pretty obvious. likely need a bit more time for the youngens to show themselves, but mainly will impact guessing on younger prospects.
Right you are. The current players are mostly known by us. It is in the fictional leagues or, like you said, when the younger players come up that I would like a bit of uncertainty to factor in.

How does changing the "Talent Change Randomness" effect your view and or analysis of the ratings for your players? If you ramp up the TCR to a very high level what is the effect to the performance of your high and low rated players?
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:33 PM   #5
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I use High accuracy.

Minors and young players are still very much all over, especially if the scout isn't ideal at them (or the budget is bad).

I think with how much analytics is getting into the game, scouting info is getting more accurate.

As far as using your best players...To me, the challenge isn't so much "do I sit Trout because he's in a slump" (because that indeed makes no sense - you have to ride with him and hope the very likely reversal will occur), but "what do I do if this is actually a bad year by Trout...how will I keep the team winning games?"

Where the question gets more interesting is in the mid ranges and lower.

If you have two 50-55 level players and one is slumping and one is streaking and both could play the position in question similarly...what do you do? Likewise, two back ups both around 40, but with different profiles. Or even a streaking 40 vs a slumping 50.

That is where nuances like skill profile, batted ball profile, intangibles, your intuition/preferences, etc. come in to play more. And this is where your scouts opinion can have the most sway. And you'd be surprised how blind the scouts are, especially if they aren't wonderful (i.e. blue rating in whatever category, imo). Double so if you can't afford a good budget for scouting.

Elite vs anyone other than another very, very good player...you play the Elite, imo. I think the only way scouting would impact this is if the scout is mis-rating the elite to the point where he doesn't look elite. But if he's at the majors and been around a while...that's not likely to happen, imo.

As far as stats-only, even then, if Elite has experience and has played up to his billing, his track record will still suggest to stick with him, imo. If Trout batting .230/.300/.380 through May this coming season, people would very likely write that off as a bad slump, given his skill set and track record.

Last edited by KBLover; 03-05-2020 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 03-07-2020, 10:20 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BIGSIX View Post
Right you are. The current players are mostly known by us. It is in the fictional leagues or, like you said, when the younger players come up that I would like a bit of uncertainty to factor in.

How does changing the "Talent Change Randomness" effect your view and or analysis of the ratings for your players? If you ramp up the TCR to a very high level what is the effect to the performance of your high and low rated players?
simply: i'm not a fan of TCR.

however, i think it's best to leave it on or at least don't tweak it too far down. i think some percentile of talent is somewhat dependent on this mechanism being present.

i think it'll help with an extra superstar or 2 that can go even higher in talent than a typical created draftee without TCR. does it even out as far as same that go up as go down? possibly, but i don't reference quantity of that upper tier, but quality of it.

i don't like it because nothing lacks cuasality in reality - no such thing as magic, and 'random' is only from our limited perspective and general knowledge an average person has gained. it's a silly mechanism to simplify something that may be too difficult to code or too unwieldly to integrate into the current code etc etc... it very well be neccessary and unavoidable, i don't want describing how somehting works to be construed as criticism of the game.. there could be very good reasons it has to exist, despite it not being modeled after anythign in reality specifically. "Something" has to fill that gap no matter what.
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Old 03-07-2020, 10:46 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KBLover View Post
I use High accuracy.

Minors and young players are still very much all over, especially if the scout isn't ideal at them (or the budget is bad).

I think with how much analytics is getting into the game, scouting info is getting more accurate.

As far as using your best players...To me, the challenge isn't so much "do I sit Trout because he's in a slump" (because that indeed makes no sense - you have to ride with him and hope the very likely reversal will occur), but "what do I do if this is actually a bad year by Trout...how will I keep the team winning games?"

Where the question gets more interesting is in the mid ranges and lower.

If you have two 50-55 level players and one is slumping and one is streaking and both could play the position in question similarly...what do you do? Likewise, two back ups both around 40, but with different profiles. Or even a streaking 40 vs a slumping 50.

That is where nuances like skill profile, batted ball profile, intangibles, your intuition/preferences, etc. come in to play more. And this is where your scouts opinion can have the most sway. And you'd be surprised how blind the scouts are, especially if they aren't wonderful (i.e. blue rating in whatever category, imo). Double so if you can't afford a good budget for scouting.

Elite vs anyone other than another very, very good player...you play the Elite, imo. I think the only way scouting would impact this is if the scout is mis-rating the elite to the point where he doesn't look elite. But if he's at the majors and been around a while...that's not likely to happen, imo.

As far as stats-only, even then, if Elite has experience and has played up to his billing, his track record will still suggest to stick with him, imo. If Trout batting .230/.300/.380 through May this coming season, people would very likely write that off as a bad slump, given his skill set and track record.
stats only will directly correlate to ratings -- if given a large enough sample. simply inevitable based on the game itself and how it creates the outcomes.

it lags behind current ratings, though. you don't see any changes in ratings for months or years, depending on what kind of change it is. plus, you have to figure out when that change occured and discount all stats before that point for a clearer picture of what that player is in this moment (or a few months behind is as best you can hope for)

this is the added difficulty. greater cloud of war... greater inaccuracy of how good they are in any moment -- even with a track record. you will have to flesh out any negative impacts to the player, liek age, through their outcomes, and it will take a year or 2 to know for sure, or you will be trading away a guy who had a bad stretch of 80 games for no reason.

----

barring an unseen injury, you should always play your best player. if it is a toss-up, then you can play musical chairs, but know that statistically it makes no difference. the only time you should waffle is when the 2 choices are nearly equal realtive to context.

now, in real life if you know one guy is going through a divorce and is on a 2-week drunken bender, you know to sit him over a lesser talent if he is in a "slump." ..BWAHAHAH ... or a nagging injury that isn't in the newspapers, etc. This sort of stuff doesn't really exist in the game, so there's not much that can be gained by musical chairs in any predictable/meaningful way.

point is... law of independent results... if no cuasality exists or you can't see any problems in their personal life, there's no reason you ever sit the 'better' player without cause to do so.

you don't go to vegas and bet against the odds just because the last two outcomes played out that way.

you could use a slump to flesh out unreported injuries, but it'd still be a blind guess unless the injury is so bad they guy's outcomes are so bad they are beyond any volatility you'd normally see. ... so, very rarely you'd know for sure.

i'm not a fan of that setting, like TCR. some injuries you can hide, but in general you can see a person's awkward movements compensating for pain or other issues. you would see a batter favoring a leg or a pitcher struggling with velo or mechanics etc.

Last edited by NoOne; 03-07-2020 at 10:56 AM.
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Old 03-13-2020, 08:03 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne View Post
i don't like it because nothing lacks cuasality in reality - no such thing as magic, and 'random' is only from our limited perspective and general knowledge an average person has gained. it's a silly mechanism to simplify something that may be too difficult to code or too unwieldly to integrate into the current code etc etc...

This is why I use it and crank it up a few notches.

I agree, what appears to be "purely random" is simply beyond our ability to decipher or quantify.

I also think it would be a very difficult thing to do right in code for that very reason. If we don't know or can't decipher what's going on, how do we tell a computer to do it?
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