Many MLB Live rating changes are jhead-scratchers

allenciox · 04-23-2019, 04:56 PM

Case 1: Atlanta Braves Max Fried (started as 70, has dropped to 66):

Below is his stat-line for last year and this year, along with his steamer projections for the rest of the year --- note that Steamer is projecting him as the best Braves starting pitcher this year with a projected full-year ERA of 3.69: however his rating is far lower than any of the other Brave starters. I do know that he has his era over 1 now, but every start both this year and in September last year has been a quality start.

Code:

2018	Braves	1	4	2.94	14	5	0	0	0	1	0	33.2	142	26	12	11	3	20	0	2	2	0	44
2019	Braves	3	0	1.38	6	4	0	0	0	0	0	26.0	104	20	5	4	1	7	0	1	0	0	18
2019	Steamer (R)	5	4	3.69	13	13	0	0	0	0	 	71.0	307	64	32	29	7	34	 	4	 	 	74

Case 2: Same team: RP Minter: He has had a hard go of it so far, but he has been rewarded with a jump from 87 rating to 91 rating with his 6.75 ERA:

Code:

2019	Braves	0	2	2	8	0	6.2	10.80	5.40	2.70	.333	76.1 %	25.0 %	22.2 %	6.75	6.40	5.07	-0.2

Case 3: Indians Carlos Carrasco: has moved from 89 up to 91 largely on the basis of his sterling ERA so far this year of 7.41.

Code:

2019	Indians	2	2	0	4	4	17.0	15.35	2.65	1.59	.524	63.4 %	26.7 %	13.6 %	7.41	3.04	3.21	0.5

Note that Steamer projections for Carrasco are about the same as for Max Fried, but one gets a 91 the other a 66.

There are many others, I have just chosen a few examples here, but I am having a hard time figuring out how the adjustments are being done. It seems like Max Fried might win rookie of the year this year as a bronze card (or maybe he will be marked down to iron by then ;-) )

chazzycat · 04-23-2019, 05:23 PM

well for starters, they use Zips not Steamer projections. Secondly they also use a FIP-like model for pitching. So the key indicators are strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. ERA is not considered. This is so pitchers who have just gotten unlucky with BABIP are not overly penalized (as is the case with Carrasco whose BABIP is insane at over .500).

I also learned recently that strikeouts & walks impact their respective ratings much quicker than HR-allowed, which takes more time to impact the ratings. AJ Minter has been burned mostly by homers, so it's likely that's the explanation for that one.

04-23-2019, 04:56 PM	#1
allenciox All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 735	Many MLB Live rating changes are jhead-scratchers Case 1: Atlanta Braves Max Fried (started as 70, has dropped to 66): Below is his stat-line for last year and this year, along with his steamer projections for the rest of the year --- note that Steamer is projecting him as the best Braves starting pitcher this year with a projected full-year ERA of 3.69: however his rating is far lower than any of the other Brave starters. I do know that he has his era over 1 now, but every start both this year and in September last year has been a quality start. Code: 2018 Braves 1 4 2.94 14 5 0 0 0 1 0 33.2 142 26 12 11 3 20 0 2 2 0 44 2019 Braves 3 0 1.38 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 26.0 104 20 5 4 1 7 0 1 0 0 18 2019 Steamer (R) 5 4 3.69 13 13 0 0 0 0 71.0 307 64 32 29 7 34 4 74 Case 2: Same team: RP Minter: He has had a hard go of it so far, but he has been rewarded with a jump from 87 rating to 91 rating with his 6.75 ERA: Code: 2019 Braves 0 2 2 8 0 6.2 10.80 5.40 2.70 .333 76.1 % 25.0 % 22.2 % 6.75 6.40 5.07 -0.2 Case 3: Indians Carlos Carrasco: has moved from 89 up to 91 largely on the basis of his sterling ERA so far this year of 7.41. Code: 2019 Indians 2 2 0 4 4 17.0 15.35 2.65 1.59 .524 63.4 % 26.7 % 13.6 % 7.41 3.04 3.21 0.5 Note that Steamer projections for Carrasco are about the same as for Max Fried, but one gets a 91 the other a 66. There are many others, I have just chosen a few examples here, but I am having a hard time figuring out how the adjustments are being done. It seems like Max Fried might win rookie of the year this year as a bronze card (or maybe he will be marked down to iron by then ;-) ) Last edited by allenciox; 04-23-2019 at 05:00 PM.

04-23-2019, 05:23 PM	#2
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	well for starters, they use Zips not Steamer projections. Secondly they also use a FIP-like model for pitching. So the key indicators are strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. ERA is not considered. This is so pitchers who have just gotten unlucky with BABIP are not overly penalized (as is the case with Carrasco whose BABIP is insane at over .500). I also learned recently that strikeouts & walks impact their respective ratings much quicker than HR-allowed, which takes more time to impact the ratings. AJ Minter has been burned mostly by homers, so it's likely that's the explanation for that one.