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Old 03-30-2020, 05:25 PM   #1
kcroyalty29
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Developing Prospects

As the 2020 Royals GM (now on 2022), I'm obviously focused on prospects.

I have noticed that many of my top prospects when I took over the game have gone down a MINIMUM of half a point (3.5 to 3.0 or 3.0 to 2.5, etc) but in at least half the cases, they've gone down a full point or more.

This actually doesn't bother me because that's how real baseball works. I want many of my prospects to fail because its challenging and its realistic.

What I'm wondering is, 1. how often do prospects that are 21 or under that drop a half point or a full point - how often do they "get back to where they once were thought of". Once they start going down and have been in the system 2-3 years, are they in most cases dead in the water?

2. Also, my second question, I spent a TON more money on organizational development this year (like $18 mil) and like $15 mil a year on scouting, AND I've spent more money on better coaches at AAA and MLB. Do these things help much or is it a total crap shoot with not much correlation?

3. LASTLY, once a guy gets to MLB - let's say he's 2.5 with a 3.0 potential, or 3.0 with a 3.5 potential - how many years does it normally take him to get to that potential IF in fact he does get there?

Thank you!
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Old 03-30-2020, 05:57 PM   #2
SirMichaelJordan
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1. If they are still young under 23 then they still have a chance to get back to where they were or even break the ceiling. After 23 is when their clock starts to tick and bought time they hit 25-26 they are pretty much developed.

2. No correlation. Better coaches and more money in those departments will help some but just like spending a fortune on lottery tickets doesn’t necessarily mean you are going to win the lottery.

3. Players stop developing at 26 years old or so. If he’s having a monster year he should reach full potential very fast. If he’s not ready for the majors, it will stunt his growth.

Last edited by SirMichaelJordan; 03-30-2020 at 06:12 PM.
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Old 03-30-2020, 06:21 PM   #3
Hrycaj
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcroyalty29 View Post
As the 2020 Royals GM (now on 2022), I'm obviously focused on prospects.

I have noticed that many of my top prospects when I took over the game have gone down a MINIMUM of half a point (3.5 to 3.0 or 3.0 to 2.5, etc) but in at least half the cases, they've gone down a full point or more.

This actually doesn't bother me because that's how real baseball works. I want many of my prospects to fail because its challenging and its realistic.

What I'm wondering is, 1. how often do prospects that are 21 or under that drop a half point or a full point - how often do they "get back to where they once were thought of". Once they start going down and have been in the system 2-3 years, are they in most cases dead in the water?

2. Also, my second question, I spent a TON more money on organizational development this year (like $18 mil) and like $15 mil a year on scouting, AND I've spent more money on better coaches at AAA and MLB. Do these things help much or is it a total crap shoot with not much correlation?

3. LASTLY, once a guy gets to MLB - let's say he's 2.5 with a 3.0 potential, or 3.0 with a 3.5 potential - how many years does it normally take him to get to that potential IF in fact he does get there?

Thank you!
This may help you. It’s from last years game but I’m pretty sure the concepts are the same.

http://manuals.ootpdevelopments.com/...er_development
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https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/showthread.php?t=326812
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Old 03-30-2020, 07:06 PM   #4
Biggio509
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Sometimes players decline. Sometimes your scout was just wrong. Hard to tell. Now the game lets you know how well the player is scouted. If you have a bad scout and don't play on 100% accurate scouting you never know if a kid burned out or if your scout just was crap on his evaluation.

Getting a good scout is number 1 priority when you want to build youth. Just starting '21 but in '20 and even previous versions when I had one of the best scouts for amatuer talent I rarely failed on a prospect and when I did it was often due to injuries setting the kid back. When I had meh or bad scouts I had a lot more misses. Playing KC I was competitive for years and even had a couple of WS appearances. I always had replacements for my players I had to trade or let go because of budgets. When my scout wasn't as good, not so much.

Your scout is the number 1 investment if you want to build minors and have a steady flow of players. I suggest this even if you are in huge market. Aging expensive veterans can decline quicker than you think.I didn't find the find the number 1 draft pick went to a scrub after playing in rookie league near as much with excellent scouts as I did when I had average or bad scouts.

I also do my own premotion/demotion in the minors. I haven't let the AI do it in a long while so I can't say how well it does this now.

Last edited by Biggio509; 03-30-2020 at 07:08 PM.
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