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OOTP 21 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 03-23-2020, 09:09 PM   #1
Hrycaj
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Historical Fun

I am not planning to write about this project so I feel that it is better served here than in the "Dynasty Reports" thread. This is just a fun historical project to pass the time when I am going through writer's block with my other projects.

Premise: Create a fun way to crown a team as the ultimate OOTP Champion. Every team 1900-2019 will once more have a chance to hit the field and prove their worth.

Methodology: I broke down all the teams into 6 eras. 1900-1919, 1920-1939, 1940-1959, 1960-1979, 1980-1999, 2000-2019.

Round 1 in each era: I will replay each season starting with 1900 but with the following changes:

1. All teams will be placed in the same league.
2. There will be a balanced schedule.
3. These are single season replays with development turned off.
4. Ratings are based on the imported season.
5. Trading/Draft/Suspensions/Postseason are all disabled. (Tiebreakers are turned on)
6. Simulate the season and the team with the best record will move on to Round 2.

***Because I'm curious each replay will be done twice. Once with injuries disabled and once with them set at realistic high modern day. The 2 paths do not cross. They are separate but it is easier to save the season I'm in as a quickstart and just click a single button to run it again.

Round 2: After Round 1 I will have 20 teams for each era. Those 20 will be placed in a league and follow the same steps as Round 1 and the top 3 teams will qualify for the final league.

Round 3: 3 teams from each era will give me 18 for the final league. Pattern stays the same and we will see who stands above the rest.

It is a pretty simple format. I will post final standings for each replay season here if anyone cares to follow along. I'm not posting stats or anything since my goal is to do this relatively quickly and not get caught in the details. I will run rounds 1 and 2 for each era before going to the next era.
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Old 03-23-2020, 09:42 PM   #2
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1900

1900 was a weird replay. The issue was that I just couldn't import the season and make my button clicks. All imported leagues before 1901 are hardwired to have an inaugural draft. So I needed to create a fictional setup and import the clubs manually. I was careful to make sure all the settings were correct before I ran the simulation. The other issue with this season lies in the fact that this was the last season before the AL was introduced. So with only 8 teams, to get my balanced schedule I needed to run a 168 game schedule. No a big deal since all the seasons are run in a vacuum. From 1901 till the expansion of the MLB in the 60's we will have one 16 team division where teams will play each other 10 times. One 5 game series at home and one away. 150 game seasons.

Anyway, in real life the 1900 NL champions were the Brooklyn Superbas. In our replays Brooklyn does finish first in the injury field but in the non injury field the Pittsburgh Pirates took the title.

Qualifiers:

Injuries disabled: Pittsburgh Pirates
Injuries enabled: Brooklyn Superbas
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Old 03-23-2020, 10:18 PM   #3
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1901

Our first of several 150 game replays. In real life there was no World Series because the leagues were not playing nice yet. The Pirates took the pennant in the National League while the White Sox won the inaugural American League pennant. In our replay neither historic club did all that well in the injuries disabled setup. That is one of the beauties of having a completely balanced schedule, it provides some interesting results. Brooklyn's 103 wins gave them a 3 game edge over Boston. Brooklyn now has an entry in the injury and non-injury field for round 2. With injuries in the mix the Pittsburgh Pirates claimed top spot. Boston was 3 games short in this replay making them the bridesmaids twice in 1901.

Injuries disabled: Brooklyn Superbas
Injuries enabled: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Old 03-24-2020, 09:27 AM   #4
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It might be interesting at some point to run a single year's results multiple times (maybe 10 times each for both injury and non-injury) to see how different the results are. I'm guessing the non-injury results would be fairly consistent and the injury results far more variable due to the luck involved in injuries -- but just how variable would be interesting to see.
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:51 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scipio Africanus View Post
It might be interesting at some point to run a single year's results multiple times (maybe 10 times each for both injury and non-injury) to see how different the results are. I'm guessing the non-injury results would be fairly consistent and the injury results far more variable due to the luck involved in injuries -- but just how variable would be interesting to see.
I agree that it would be interesting to see. I had thought about doing that but decided against it simply because I wanted to be able to finish it.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:02 PM   #6
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1902

The real life version of the 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the most dominant teams of the deadball era. The Pirates had a winning percentage of .741 in 1902 mostly because of a ultar-effective pitching staff. In our OOTP models the Pirates were just as dominate. With or without injuries set they tore through the 1902 season.

Injuries disabled: Pittsburgh Pirates
Injuries enabled: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Old 03-25-2020, 01:10 AM   #7
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Historical Fun

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hrycaj View Post
The real life version of the 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the most dominant teams of the deadball era. The Pirates had a winning percentage of .741 in 1902 mostly because of a ultar-effective pitching staff. In our OOTP models the Pirates were just as dominate. With or without injuries set they tore through the 1902 season.

Injuries disabled: Pittsburgh Pirates
Injuries enabled: Pittsburgh Pirates

Whoa...123 wins (30 games ahead) without injuries. That’s a very dominant squad.
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Old 03-25-2020, 01:33 PM   #8
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Whoa...123 wins (30 games ahead) without injuries. That’s a very dominant squad.
They were unreal. I think the team ERA was just over 2.00!
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Old 03-25-2020, 01:41 PM   #9
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1903

1903 was the first year of the actual World Series. It was a best of 9 game affair back then and in the first one the Boston Americans beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 5 games to 3. In our simulation we do not have a World Series since all the teams are lumped together playing a balanced schedule. Still, it would seem the cream still rose to the top. In the no injury bracket it was Cy Young's Boston Americans claiming top spot while the Pittsburgh Pirates took the injury portion of the simulation.

No injury: Boston Americans
Injury: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:37 PM   #10
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1904

Thanks to John McGraw of the Giants feuding with AL President Ban Johnson there was no 1904 World Series. If there had been McGraw's Giants would have been a tough out. In our simulations they were a tough out as well winning both runs. This would also mark the first time that a Pittsburgh club is not represented in one of the brackets.

No injury: New York Giants
Injury: New York Giants
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Old 03-30-2020, 06:51 PM   #11
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What a GREAT project!! As a Bucco fan, I am pleased to see that the 1902 squad obliterated everyone just as they did in real life!

I'll be following this project quite enthusiastically!
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Old 04-01-2020, 09:48 AM   #12
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1905

With a return of the World Series in 1905 it was the NY Giants over the Philadelphia Athletics 4 games to 1. Both of our replays held true to history as the New York Giants won over 100 games in each scenario for the 2nd straight season.

No injury: New York Giants
Injury: New York Giants
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Old 04-01-2020, 10:13 AM   #13
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1906

1906 was the year that the baseball universe shifted to Chicago as both the White Sox and Cubs faced off in the World Series with the White Sox winning the title in 6. While our replays did feature the Cubs the real life World Champs did not factor at all into either simulation.

In the no injury portion it was the real life 3rd place Cleveland Naps that led the way for most of the season. The Cubs caught fire late and caught he Naps going into the last day of the season. While the Cubs beat the Reds 2-1 the Naps lost to the White Sox (so I guess they did play a factor after all ) by the same score of 2-1. With the Cubs winning the no injury portion I felt it was safe to assume that the Naps anomaly was over. I was wrong. With injuries enabled the Naps stayed relatively healthy and easily ran away with the title. This was a fun replay to watch.

no injury: Chicago Cubs
Injury: Cleveland Naps
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Old 04-01-2020, 10:39 AM   #14
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1907

In 1907 the Chicago Cubs defeated the Detroit Tigers 4 games to 0 with a tie (YES! Game 1 was a 3-3 tie). It was the first of a dominant run by some Tiger teams. In our replay the Tigers didn't factor in at all but the Cubs were absolutely in the thick of things.

In the no injury field it played out exactly like 1906 where one team led the way the entire year just to be caught and overtaken on the final day of the season. This time it was the Cubs with the lead butthe upstart Philadelphia A's (historically 2nd place in the Al that year) that caught the Cubs. The A's beat a 63 win Brooklyn team 1-0 while the Cubs were beat by their cross town rivals (White Sox play spoiler again!) 1-0. The Cubs would have their revenge however when we flipped the switch and enabled injuries. In this simulation the Cubs ran roughshod over the league and won it easily.

no injury: Philadelphia A's
injury: Chicago Cubs
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Old 04-02-2020, 12:17 PM   #15
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Can I ask perhaps a dumb question?

How do you get information from the game - to post in the forums?
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Old 04-02-2020, 12:41 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsmooth View Post
Can I ask perhaps a dumb question?

How do you get information from the game - to post in the forums?
Not a dumb question at all! If you are referring to the images that I have attached to the posts my process is pretty basic.

1. Copy screen button on whatever screen I want in game
2. Paste screen in paint.net or similar type program
3. Crop out what I don’t want
4. Save image
5. Then when I make a forum post there is an option to attach images. Select that, upload, and post!

There may be other ways to accomplish the same thing but this one works for my technologically limited mind! Hope that helped.
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Old 04-06-2020, 09:18 AM   #17
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1908

The real life 1908 season featured a strong Chicago Cubs team overtaking the Detroit Tigers 4 games to 1 to win the World Series. In our replay both Chicago teams would play a prominent role. In the no injury simulation the Chicago White Sox fought hard and took the league by 5 games over the Cubs. The Cubs would get there revenge in the injury portion of the simulation by winning the league by 12 games over the Giants.

no injury: Chicago White Sox
injury: Chicago Cubs
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:36 PM   #18
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1909

The real World Series in 1909 featured a thrilling 7 game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Detroit Tigers. The Pirates would win the series and would also factor in our simulations. In the no injury field the Pirates were able to hold off both the Cubs and the A's as all three teams won at least 100 games. With injuries enabled the Pirates won a few less games but were easily the class of the simulation.

no injury: Pittsburgh Pirates
injury: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:58 PM   #19
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1910

The Philadelphia A's were the world champs in 1910 by beating the Chicago Cubs in 5 games. Well the Cubs would have their revenge in the replay. In the no injury field Chicago absolutely cruised to 119 wins taking the league by 22 games. With injuries enabled things normalized a bit but it was still the Cubs that won out.

no injury: Chicago Cubs
injury: Chicago Cubs
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Old 04-06-2020, 01:23 PM   #20
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1911

The Philadelphia A's won the 1911 World Series over the New York Giants in 6 games. In our simulation the A's were able to hold serve. With injuries disabled the A's easily won the league by 15 games. With injuries, the A's lost Chief Bender after 9 starts and it opened the door for the Giants to keep pace all season long. In the end however, it was the A's winning the league and sweeping the sim.

no injury Philadelphia A's
injury: Philadelphia A's
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