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Perfect Team Discover the new amazing online league competition & card collecting mode of OOTP! |
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03-08-2019, 11:50 AM | #1 |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 103
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Opening Day Dice Roll?
I've noticed that a handful of players on my team each year seem to be in year long slumps, playing well below their career average. And, conversely, a few each year play better than expected.
The likelihood of this being random seems rather small, since ratings for PP players are static and landing six (for instance) month long slumps in a row would be statistically unlikely. I'm wondering if there may be a pre-season dice roll of some sort that prompts good or bad seasons for players. If this is the case, it would make a lot of sense to keep a strong reserve roster, identify slumping players a quarter of the way into the season and get them off the field. Not a strategy I've personally employed much, but I often look back at the season's individual stats on a Sunday and wish I had. Anyone put any thought into it?
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03-08-2019, 11:59 AM | #2 |
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I'd say definitely nope.
Every card has ratings and those ratings are used for each and every play that player is involved in all season every season. It's just math. Fiddling with hot and cold players seems insane to me. They are cards, not people. The card with the better ratings will always do better in the long run, so putting worse players in is a mistake. |
03-08-2019, 12:03 PM | #3 |
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I agree. No need to force anything internally. Sometimes you simply can't roll doubles no matter what you do.
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03-08-2019, 12:04 PM | #4 | |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 103
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Quote:
Are we sure about that? Could there be a hidden modifier, say called "season", which plays a factor? Not sure how one could say definitively that this is not the case...
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03-08-2019, 12:07 PM | #5 |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 762
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The devs have said there's nothing like this. Whether you choose to believe them is your call.
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03-08-2019, 12:29 PM | #6 | |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 637
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Quote:
Take that same 5 star player and place him in a PT perfect league, ours for instance. That player isn't going to have a great year every year because nearly every single player in the league is a 5 star player. Something's gotta give somewhere, all PT perfect league pitchers can't have a great year along with all PT perfect league batters also having a great year. It's just not possible. At 77 years old and as wise/knowledgeable as he is, my dad is the king of not understanding this concept. Take any NFL ballgame on TV, every breath he says something like this, "I can't believe the receiver didn't make that catch, the defender barely touched him, he should've caught it and scored a touchdown. They're making millions of dollars to make that catch." He doesn't get/care that the defenders are also making millions of dollars to make sure that same receiver doesn't make the catch or score a touchdown. Every card can't have a great season every season when each card on all 30 teams is basically the equivalent of an OOTP 5 star player. |
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03-08-2019, 12:44 PM | #7 |
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Location: Wichita Falls, TX
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And this is exactly why you should rotate out those who are having bad seasons with cards from the reserve roster who might not be having the same poor season
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03-08-2019, 12:50 PM | #8 | |
Minors (Double A)
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Ah, alright I wasn't aware of that. Certainly that is meaningful info!
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03-08-2019, 12:58 PM | #9 |
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Sure, maybe if you have identical quality cards on reserve. But if they're worse, you're more likely to get a good season out of the better card moving forward. To believe otherwise is only superstition, not science or math.
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03-08-2019, 12:58 PM | #10 |
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I don't try to time the stock market. I invest for the long haul in blue chip stocks that pay a good, steady return. Maybe others can make a fortune day-trading and that's great if it works for them. I was never able to make that work. I always missed the ups and rode the downs. Every time I bought, the stock went down and every time I sold, the stock went up. Maybe I was just making bad decisions but, since I started (a long time ago) to invest and hold, I have done very well with my method. So I concluded that it was silly for me to try to manipulate that which I do not understand or control.
I have decided PT works the same way for me. I buy blue chip players and let them play. Your mileage may vary. |
03-08-2019, 12:59 PM | #11 |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 103
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I suppose the wide variance in outcomes for same-card players also made me wonder about this. If you've got 20 Mike Trout '18s in a league, some will hit .210, some will hit .290 in any given year. That's a ~30% difference in outcomes, based on over 600 plate appearances. How likely is that, statistically, if we were to assume a fully neutral environment? I honestly don't know how to do those calculations, so please if anyone does feel free to make me look like an idiot here...
Of course environments aren't fully neutral, so while some of that varience might be luck, some might be park factors or differing divisional competition in an unbalanced schedule... but seems like the swings are very wide to me, considering that parks are capped at 10% modification, and only effect you for half your games. Its harder to quantify competition variance -- though maybe someone has a good model for that. Is there a general "slump" mechanic in OOTP, that (if not yearly) generates shorter periods of variable productivity?
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03-08-2019, 01:02 PM | #12 | |
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03-08-2019, 01:09 PM | #13 |
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Seriously though, I swear I've seen others before on these boards talk about rotating in and out players like this.
Also, forget rotating cards in and out - I can't even afford proper platoons yet! (And my top players have been targeted with this in mind)
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03-08-2019, 01:12 PM | #14 | |
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Combine that with a bad luck run and you have a slump that seems unlikely. |
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03-08-2019, 01:17 PM | #15 |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Nov 2018
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I looked around on the internet, and found an article stating that if you were to flip a coin 1000 times, an occurrence of 550 heads or tails is like 99.7 percentile chance.
https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...oin-1000-times I'm no math guy, but I think that's only a 10% deviation from the mean. If Mike Trout was regularly hitting between .275 and .225 (in a fully neutral environment), seems like that would be remarkable, according to the math. Not sure it matters how good or bad the competition is, as long as its static.
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New York Ospreys Last edited by max venerabel; 03-08-2019 at 01:19 PM. |
03-08-2019, 01:19 PM | #16 | |
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"And, Masters, do not forget to specify, when time and place shall serve, that I am an [censored]." (Much Ado About Nothing 5.1.255-256) Primary Team Collection Rewards (Cards & Packs) F2P Theme Team Movers F2P Theme and Adam Schlesinger Memorial Team |
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03-08-2019, 01:30 PM | #17 | |
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If it were, consider Mike Trout to be heads and Perfect Pedro to be tails. Now Trout might have a 75% chance of coming up heads because he's really good. And Pedro might have a 75% chance of coming up tails because he's really good. What happens when they face each other and they both have a 75% success chance? They'll both underperform by 25% on average. |
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03-08-2019, 01:40 PM | #18 |
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Dogberry99, They're not exclusive.
Using BA as an example... We're not talking about .500 being the average here, where there's as much chance of hitting 1.000 than there is of hitting .000. The average BA is let's say .275. To get that average your averaging between .000 and .550 (in a fixed environment). If the competition is greater, your restricting the higher end of that range - say to .450 - thus the average is now .225. This is the "lower performance" component. The "variance component" is also effected. If your possibilities are now limited to .000 - .450, your Hot Streaks are shorter and your slumps are longer - because your constricted to a smaller (and lower) range of possibilities. Last edited by HRBaker; 03-08-2019 at 01:42 PM. |
03-08-2019, 01:59 PM | #19 |
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20 live mike trouts even in the same league also arent all the same. different home ballparks. different player strategies. different spots in the order. different surrounding team talent. different pitchers in the division. add all that to natural variance and I'm not surprised at all you could get a range between .210 and .290 with most towards the middle.
now if every single mike trout in a league hit right at .275 with a .900 ops, THAT would be concerning Last edited by dkgo; 03-08-2019 at 02:01 PM. |
03-08-2019, 02:02 PM | #20 | |
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