RNG pack drop rate a joke!

[webdox]

I had 55K left the other day from AH purchases I wanted to make and thought what the hell, I have never had any luck with Packs before but I have been seeing people stating they had opened 2, 3 even 4 Perfects so I thought why not...

Of the 55 packs:

Perfect: 0
Diamond: 0
Gold: 6
Silver: 13

Didn't count the lower levels...

Kind of bummed I wasted all that on 6 very common Golds that go for only slightly above $1000 in the AH.

I've spent way too much, again, to be mediocre.

Fool me one shame on you, fool me twice... Not happening. Going to grab some real fresh air and catch some Toledo Mud Hens games in real life and leave this all behind for a while. Uninstalled.

[Westheim]

Nobody fooled you. Nobody promised you a perfect etc...

[OMGPuppies]

Packs are a crapshoot. I designated one of my teams a f2p pack only team. Got lucky and pulled a card that sold for 75k. Then i bought packs with those funds. Got horrible pulls. Even then my team was able to win their bronze league in season one and is now in silver. That being said I won't be opening any packs for the rest of the year other than for my packs only team. The auction house is a much more efficient way of building a team. Thank goodness for those who bust packs to supply the auction house.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by webdox

I had 55K left the other day from AH purchases I wanted to make and thought what the hell, I have never had any luck with Packs before but I have been seeing people stating they had opened 2, 3 even 4 Perfects so I thought why not...

Of the 55 packs:

Perfect: 0
Diamond: 0
Gold: 6
Silver: 13

Didn't count the lower levels...

Kind of bummed I wasted all that on 6 very common Golds that go for only slightly above $1000 in the AH.

I've spent way too much, again, to be mediocre.

Fool me one shame on you, fool me twice... Not happening. Going to grab some real fresh air and catch some Toledo Mud Hens games in real life and leave this all behind for a while. Uninstalled.

those people are probably lying

you opened 275 cards that could have been perfect and the 1/1000 odds are right there in your face. thats a 76% chance you WOULD NOT pull a perfect.

[Charlatan]

I doubt people are lying about their pulls. One thing you have to understand though is people are gonna post their great pulls here - the vast majority of people who open packs and get nothing will not be here talking about that. So threads like this one are definitely not representative of the overall odds of getting a good card.

For every guy who posts his 2 diamonds and a perfect in three packs, there are 50 guys who opened 10 packs and got 1 silver and 1 gold (if they were lucky!)

[a5ehren]

Yeah, I've been doing pack-only f2p while waiting for the main game to stabilize and have had decent enough luck to get to a point where my roster (outside of bullpen) is all silver/gold.

I haven't gotten any diamond+ cards yet, but I haven't opened enough packs to where I would expect to have one.

Gold Live cards seem to be worthless on the AH, so I keep those and sell any Gold static cards (peak, award heroes, etc) to fund more packs.

[Thornbreaker]

I appreciate those of you who are having worse odds than me. It makes my 3 diamonds in about 20 packs feel like gluttony.

If it makes any of you feel better, I've only pulled 2 golds and a couple silver on another 20 or so on one of my other teams.

All Free PP. I haven't spent an extra dime. Will probably only do that if there's something I'm just short on at the Auction House in the future.

[waylander]

Originally Posted by Thornbreaker

I appreciate those of you who are having worse odds than me. It makes my 3 diamonds in about 20 packs feel like gluttony.

If it makes any of you feel better, I've only pulled 2 golds and a couple silver on another 20 or so on one of my other teams.

All Free PP. I haven't spent an extra dime. Will probably only do that if there's something I'm just short on at the Auction House in the future.

Your extremely luck my friend . I pulled one extra gold in the first pack set - and 20 or so packs later nothing but a few silvers. No perfect or diamonds yet....

[waylander]

Originally Posted by waylander

Your extremely luck my friend . I pulled one extra gold in the first pack set - and 20 or so packs later nothing but a few silvers. No perfect or diamonds yet....

I've gotten used to a lot of this:

[mrbucket]

Originally Posted by dkgo

those people are probably lying

you opened 275 cards that could have been perfect and the 1/1000 odds are right there in your face. thats a 76% chance you WOULD NOT pull a perfect.

You'd expect Diamonds in there but even then, the chance of pulling zero diamonds from 55 packs is 16% -- or slightly worse than rolling a six on a six-sided die. The results posted are well within what you expect from the posted odds. Imagine having a tantrum over probability.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by mrbucket

You'd expect Diamonds in there but even then, the chance of pulling zero diamonds from 55 packs is 16% -- or slightly worse than rolling a six on a six-sided die. The results posted are well within what you expect from the posted odds. Imagine having a tantrum over probability.

Imagine reason prevailing on an internet forum. You'll pull two historical perfects from the same pack before reason will kick in...

[Neezer]

I have to be somewhere around 1200-1400 packs and not any 100 cards. I feel like I have to be doing something wrong or set up wrong. I did get a good share of diamonds, but none of them of that extra special kind that people sell for high amount of PP. FWIW after my last opening of 150 packs and really getting nothing, its definitely got me deflated and losing interest in the game. Ill always play OOTP, but Im down on Perfect Team thats for sure.

[mrbucket]

Originally Posted by Neezer

I have to be somewhere around 1200-1400 packs and not any 100 cards. I feel like I have to be doing something wrong or set up wrong. I did get a good share of diamonds, but none of them of that extra special kind that people sell for high amount of PP. FWIW after my last opening of 150 packs and really getting nothing, its definitely got me deflated and losing interest in the game. Ill always play OOTP, but Im down on Perfect Team thats for sure.

If you really opened 1200-1400 packs then you've experienced some extraordinary bad luck in not getting a perfect. 1200 packs with no perfects is 0.25% and 1400 packs is 0.09%.

[dkgo]

I just wonder how many packs it takes before someone realizes the EV is like 200 points

thought it would be way less than 1000 for sure

playing the lottery can be fun and sure someone is going to win, but I dont get mad when it isnt me

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by Neezer

I have to be somewhere around 1200-1400 packs and not any 100 cards. I feel like I have to be doing something wrong or set up wrong. I did get a good share of diamonds, but none of them of that extra special kind that people sell for high amount of PP. FWIW after my last opening of 150 packs and really getting nothing, its definitely got me deflated and losing interest in the game. Ill always play OOTP, but Im down on Perfect Team thats for sure.

Certainly you had to have pulled at least a decent historical diamond. Maybe not one of the 98/99 Peak SP cards, but something in the 50k range. I prefer those over the live perfects.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by dkgo

I just wonder how many packs it takes before someone realizes the EV is like 200 points

I opened 100 packs and averaged 1000 points per pack.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by dkgo

I just wonder how many packs it takes before someone realizes the EV is like 200 points

...except for the odd lucky idiot who pulls a historical perfect worth 800k.

After opening some 50 packs (didn't count them all) and snatching a Walter Johnson, and other cards I would generously value at 25k, I would have to open over 5k packs with nothing but minimum returns to get back to an average return of 200 PP/pack. One dumb/lucky draw settles you for life in this game.

That is why all of us idiots (lucky and unlucky) open packs, and we tolerate it that you scrub off the spoils on the auction house while sitting on a pretty high horse...

[dkgo]

I love it when people open packs. they are needed to keep the AH flowing for everyone.

congrats on being lucky, but expected value means...expected, so I dont know what you are trying to counter argue. someone is going to hit a jackpot on the slot machine, for everyone else you just see your credits trend towards zero.

[dkgo]

Also have no idea where the high horse comment is coming from. Just because someone knows how probability works?

I get that gambling is fun. I love casinos. I just know that in the long run I'm going to lose, so when I do lose there's no point complaining about it.

[Thornbreaker]

Originally Posted by Neezer

I have to be somewhere around 1200-1400 packs and not any 100 cards. I feel like I have to be doing something wrong or set up wrong. I did get a good share of diamonds, but none of them of that extra special kind that people sell for high amount of PP. FWIW after my last opening of 150 packs and really getting nothing, its definitely got me deflated and losing interest in the game. Ill always play OOTP, but Im down on Perfect Team thats for sure.

This also means you spent 120k - 140k on packs...which could have easily bought you a couple of 100s.