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OOTP 18 - General Discussions Everything about the 2017 version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA.

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Old 11-24-2017, 06:40 AM   #1
jmknpk2
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Should relievers truly be handled differently than starters?

I am throwing this question out more as a point for discussion and pondering rather than as any hint of suggestion for changing the actual internal workings of the game.

In an ideal world, the OOTP game would simulate real life.
In an ideal world, pitchers would be pitchers regardless of role. In an ideal world, human pitchers would perform more like robots optimized for performance.
My belief is that the perception of pitching role is only in the mind. More of a figment of imagination than reality (in a scientific perspective) regarding pitching mechanics.

Having said that,
Should any pitcher truly be treated (or perform) differently from another, except for metrics such as stamina and stuff?

I say "No", in an ideal world.

If we could erase the notion or concept in ballplayer and manager minds that there are refined pitching roles, it seems like a pitcher just throws pitches until he's tired, or the offense has gained an edge (already seen this reliever's only two pitches during my last two plate appearances)?

Every pitcher should prepare and be ready to act as either starter or reliever on any given day, and any moment throughout that day.

Of course trainer/medical issues such as rest and any treatments/preparations would need to be different.

A designated starter needs to prepare mentally (aware of the book on all batters). And of course, the starter's warmup necessarily begins before the game as opposed to a reliever's warmup during the game.

A starting pitcher/catcher/manager game plan over the long haul of a game, would certainly be different than the game plan of a closer. But with current technology, it seems a tablet or laptop could provide a game plan for the pitcher, which could be reviewed moments before entering the game and between innings.

And a pitcher needs to have some idea about how long he's expected to last in the game, so he doesn't empty the tank in one inning when he's expected to go five or seven.

Aside from those type considerations, I believe in an ideal world, all pitchers should be treated the same. And in an ideal world, OOTP Baseball would handle all pitchers identically (regardless of designated role or the point in the game when he begins pitching).

Other than a mental paradigm or perception, there is no reason any pitcher should perform differently than any other, independent of the game situation. A pitcher begins his day with the first pitch and ends his day when the game ends or he's removed.

If we wish to consider the importance of a third pitch for a starter, that third pitch should only come into play after batters have seen said pitcher already once in the game or the pitch has already been thrown.

In real life, it does seem as if baseball management continues to diverge from traditional style to a more sabermetric or scientific approach.

Also, there is certainly a lot more baseball history without closers than with closers. And probably likewise without a significant bullpen than with a bullpen expected to be used in about 4/9ths of every game.

But, I wouldn't want OOTP to actually work in that manner. Because relief appearances and such need to be categorized and balanced against history (things like the recalc function). And, most of us, would prefer the OOTP game mimic current real life, wherein major league players do have specific roles as pitchers.

Maybe some day we could have the best of both worlds. Where traditional verses sabermetric is less than an AI lineup type setting, and more of a choice about how the game internals work.
And maybe by then, the chips in our foreheads would allow us to play OOTP Baseball with our eyes literally closed (lol).

Last edited by jmknpk2; 11-24-2017 at 07:04 AM.
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Old 11-24-2017, 02:16 PM   #2
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the peope that get well defined bullpen roles are the small portion at the top of the distrubution curve.

most pitch with exactly what you described. setup/closer being the exception. all 30 teams don't even have each of those positions filled with good players.

"Should any pitcher truly be treated (or perform) differently from another, except for metrics such as stamina and stuff?"

well, excluding ability, i assume? based on context i think you meant something akin to: it shouldn't matter when they pitch, they should be as good as they currently are at any 1 particular time. ie a closer shouldn't be worse whether pitching 9th or a high leverage situation in the 7th.

i agree with this... and the strong/better players can do this. weak-willed, superstitous dummies cannot. people that knowingly become dependent on a strict and unbending habits that prevent them from being useful at any time are a weak link.

"foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." - by whomever

it's "your" fault if you cannot handle pressure or pitchign in different situation. especially if you have conditioned yourself to be terrible outside of your comfort zone. it's not something that is out of 'your' control. *you - plural about baseball players.

just like a fear of dogs or <insert noun>. you avoid it, you never get over the irrational nonsense in your head. so, if you coddle players and bend to their irrational requests liek only being used in certain situation, they are making "it" worse.

there will be a change in how players are developed and it will take a generation to turnover the league. if you want players comrfortable with the new strategy, you need to start preparing them properly for it. i.e. don't use high-end prospects exclusively as a closer or setup etc.

in game none of this matters, imo. maybe personality affects success?

i hope there's no penalty for using a closer outside of the 9th inning beside morale/chemistry side effects -- which is man-made irrational nonsense when it's toxic.

Last edited by NoOne; 11-24-2017 at 02:20 PM.
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Old 11-25-2017, 12:49 AM   #3
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Except that people are people, with all of our illogical, irrational, unique ways. We are not computers.

Baseball is not simply a game of metrics. There are people behind the decisions and actions upon which all of the fancy math is based upon.

Remember the 1980's movie War Games? Tic-Tac-Toe ends up stumping the supercomputer as illogical - yet people have played and enjoyed the game for years.

If we are expecting OOTP to "evolve" to the supercomputer in War Games and remove all human element - than sure, any pitcher can pitch anytime.

If we do that than we will reach the Tic-Tac-Toe stalemate from War Games - and then what is the point of playing?
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Old 11-29-2017, 06:22 PM   #4
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i agree we are creatures of habits, but habits can change.

Also, if you can't get "up" for your outing because of what the scoreboard says... i don't think that's the type of behaviour you want to reinforce... what a little baby, if true. that's pure selfishness, not due to our nature as living creatures... that's a poor choice of being and 100% in a person's control. you shape your perspective of the world by choice.

the current gen of players will be lil babies bout expectations and realities not meshing as how it once worked.

this is almost a certainty during any progressive change. (social, politics, sports, somethign in your daily life)

firmer understanding of usage and recovery time along with being more selective about timing of the beck-end guys are definiteyl areas in which we can do better going forward. new habits are no different than old habits, and if they are better odds, you are insane not to take them. go to vegas and bet on the hard way because you have a 'feeling' lol.

the systmatic part is the data mining portion, not necessarily how the players will be treated. they will learn to adjust to the new way of doing things, and the kids will not know anything different, eventually.

i think they do alot of it already. their would be changes and mostly overblown, overreactions by fearful and insecure people -- common men/women who happen to play MLB.

i don't think things can change that drastically from how they work now. the biggest thing would be prima donnas not getting their panties in a bunch over arbitrary nonsense. the save would become less important to contract negotiations... setup pay may rise and closer may drop a bit (new labels #1 vs #2-3+ in rank), but teh same or more would be spent... this type of change is inevitable and futile to fight against it. a new norm is reached and people chill out once it's 'normal' to them.

their real concern is with their money. they don't actually care if they are used in the 8th or 9th or their routines and superstitions, but if it costs them money because of fewer saves, they will use any excuse possible, because greed doesn't play well in public relations.

Last edited by NoOne; 11-29-2017 at 06:36 PM.
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Old 11-29-2017, 06:56 PM   #5
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Also, if you can't get "up" for your outing because of what the scoreboard says... i don't think that's the type of behaviour you want to reinforce... what a little baby, if true. that's pure selfishness, not due to our nature as living creatures... that's a poor choice of being and 100% in a person's control. you shape your perspective of the world by choice.
Isn't that an argument that so called "clutch" players are really just babies?
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Old 11-29-2017, 08:54 PM   #6
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Isn't that an argument that so called "clutch" players are really just babies?
I think the difference would be that clutch players show up whenever it is their turn and perform when most needed. I think mostly of batters as clutch players. But a pitcher who has loaded the bases with less than two outs, can really rise to the occasion. Rather than wanting to show up only in certain spots, according to the player's preferred timing..
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Old 11-30-2017, 12:54 AM   #7
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i think he means when it's used for those that don't perform as well when the game is not on the line.

a different, more positive version of 'clutch' is what you are thinking of.

no such thng as clutch, you either get the most out of your abilities or you do not. the rest is small sample related results.

you can always hurt yourself relative to potential, but you cannot make yourself better than what you are. that would require some advanced genetic engineering that we are not capable as of yet.

so instead of calling 'normal' clutch, they shoudl call those that are unable to be consistent* weak-willed. (includes normal volatility)

you see it on the golf course alot. a little bit of trouble on the horizon and all of a sudden they can't hit the da^n ball.

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Old 11-30-2017, 12:43 PM   #8
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I wonder how many people posting on here have actually pitched beyond the high school level. A lot of these comments seem like they are from an outside perspective on what ballplayers "should" do without the necessary experience of being there.

Baseball is a mental game and you can boil it down to numbers all you want but there are still humans executing at every phase. Preparation, both mentally and physically are vitally important to pitching effectively. From the outside looking in it is easy to say "just grab the ball and throw it and try not to let the guy holding the stick hit it". Sorry, but that just is not how it works. It is not as simple as 'babying' players. Every person no matter the job wants to know what is expected of them. "Get people out" isn't a sufficient expectation. I certainly would not set expectations for my employees that broad.

What is clutch and why are players different in certain situations? Well, they are humans. People react to higher pressure situations differently. Just look at the corporate world or even holiday family gatherings where Pappy has had a little too much to drink and still wants to drive home.
In baseball, hitters are known to sometimes have a different approach at the plate if there is a runner on second or third. Those approaches vary from just making contact to try to get the runner in to try and swing as hard as they can so no one can catch it. Some don't change their approach no matter the situation. Throwing all situations into a single bucket is also a bit unfair to determining if someone is "clutch". Runner on third? Runner on second or third? Does the number of outs matter or the inning?

For a simple illustration, if someone has 100 plate appearances in a season with a runner on third and they don't record a hit are they not clutch? What if those 100 plate appearances resulted in 100 runs scored?
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Old 11-30-2017, 03:51 PM   #9
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If they didn't get a hit and drove in 100 runs then they're not clutch. If they'd been able to turn some of those outs into hits they would have not only driven in a similar amount of runs, but would have given their team an opportunity to score more than 1 run. In that situation, 100 runs isn't that impressive, as you could get a high number of runs by making fewer outs and extending the inning.

As for your earlier comment, the problem is not mental, but financial. Pitchers would be willing to come into any situation, but at least in arb, they get paid based on saves. Betances got screwed over - he's an elite RP, but because of his low save total he didn't get nearly as much as he should. So why would RP want to come earlier in the game, even though it helps the team, if it hurts their salary in pre-FA years?

Compare it to guys like Andrew Miller, established guys, who are now more willing to enter the game in any situation, and don't have to worry about financial issues or needing to get saves.

For established guys making big $$ they can come in any time, but for RP until payment in arb has nothing to do with saves, players are going to want to have a stricter role (or ideally, be the closer) to maximize their salary.

It's a less a mental issue than it is a financial issue. You can convince a player to come in for any situation, if you compensate him for pitching at an elite level vs getting saves.

Last edited by ThePretender; 11-30-2017 at 03:52 PM.
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Old 11-30-2017, 05:05 PM   #10
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If their goal is to drive the run in and they accomplish that how is that not clutch? A walk off sac fly accomplishes the same thing as a walk off homer. The hit does not matter.

Financials certainly play a role. Betances is the perfect example for why arbitration exists. You are not elite if your manager doesn't trust you to pitch in the playoffs so you shouldn't get paid like you are elite. Get a big enough sample size to show you deserve the money.

There is a big trend over the last couple years of non-closers getting paid 5+ million a year for multi year deals. Unheard of a decade ago. As the role and importance of the reliever is better understood and adopted they will get paid accordingly. It is just going to take a little more time for more of these archaic stats to stop driving the machine.
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Old 11-30-2017, 06:38 PM   #11
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If their goal is to drive the run in and they accomplish that how is that not clutch? A walk off sac fly accomplishes the same thing as a walk off homer. The hit does not matter.
That's only the case in a walk off situation. In any other situation, it matters a ton. Having one out, and one or more guys on base, plus having driven in the run, is significantly more valuable than having 2 out, and none or one runner on base.

It's simply not clutch to hit a sac fly. While you get the run in, the clutch at bat would be driving in the run and not making an out, allowing the guys behind you to drive you in, in addition to the run you drove in.

Quote:
Financials certainly play a role. Betances is the perfect example for why arbitration exists. You are not elite if your manager doesn't trust you to pitch in the playoffs so you shouldn't get paid like you are elite. Get a big enough sample size to show you deserve the money.
Oh, that's nonsense. Betances has been one of the best pitchers in the game for several years now. Between 2014-2016, which his arb was based on, he lead the majors in WAR among RP, was fifth in ERA-, fourth in FIP-, and #1 in ERA.

Oh, and he threw the most innings of any RP, and basically had a top 5 ERA and FIP. He was one of the best RP in baseball, but because he didn't have many saves, he didn't get a lot of money. Does that make sense? No.

Seriously, if you can look at that and tell me he's not one of the best relievers in the game, and that he doesn't deserve to be paid like one...then I would strongly question your ability to evaluate baseball players.

As for " You are not elite if your manager doesn't trust you to pitch in the playoffs so you shouldn't get paid like you are elite", you'll note that they didn't retain that manager when given the opportunity, which means the front office didn't approve of all of his decisions. Betances also had a 2.87 ERA/3.22 FIP in the regular season, so let's not pretend he's this awful player who nobody wanted. He had an awful September, so something was clearly wrong with him heading into the playoffs, and that played a bigger part in him not being used in the playoffs more than some ridiculous notion that he's not an elite pitcher.

Quote:
There is a big trend over the last couple years of non-closers getting paid 5+ million a year for multi year deals. Unheard of a decade ago. As the role and importance of the reliever is better understood and adopted they will get paid accordingly. It is just going to take a little more time for more of these archaic stats to stop driving the machine.
That's only happening in FA, though. It's not happening in arbitration.

Last edited by ThePretender; 11-30-2017 at 06:40 PM.
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:58 PM   #12
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Perhaps none of us are wrong, or completely right.

In a really complicated fancy OOTP Baseball game (maybe in the year 2037), we might see things along the following lines in addition to chemistry, morale, and personalities:

"Player is extremely self-disciplined and able to keep his focus no matter what".

"Player doesn't handle pressure well and gets flustered easily under pressure".

"Player is extremely alert and aware of all aspects and considerations of the entire game, including off field circumstances. Yet his mechanics seem to slip out of the groove for unknown and seemingly random reasons".

"Player shows up either with great stuff or horrendous stuff. It's a gamble every time he toes the rubber".

"Player XYZ had a blowup with his girlfriend last night and got drunk".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dock_Ellis
https://www.snopes.com/sports/baseball/ellis.asp

Who knows exactly what happened to Rick Ankiel in the playoffs? Even a team of top psychologists across the world might not have a cut and dried answer (or solution). Rick Ankiel (and the entire team staff) may not even have had the answer. If he did, he might have been able to overcome and succeed as pitcher the following season. And who knows? He might have had a great pitching career if he hadn't chosen the outfield.

I recently heard it described in the Ken Burns Baseball documentary that Rube Waddell could be distracted by the opposing team holding up puppies or toys. How could something like that be coded into the game?

Aspects could be broken down along these lines:
a) optimum performance (current rather than something like future potential) and minimum performance ranges for individual players
b) current day's performance level (how's the pitcher doing today?)
c) consistency vs sporadicallness
d) ability to handle pressure/stress (I think this one is already hidden in the personality settings)
e) focus/distraction levels
f) determination when the chips are down. 0-2 with two outs and bases empty down 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth. Or bases loaded no outs in the bottom of the ninth with cleanup hitter at bat (for a pitcher's clutch ability)
g) Always gives 100% vs. slacks off from time to time, even in critical moments.

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Old 12-01-2017, 10:18 AM   #13
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First off, thank you for a healthy, well thought out discussion.

It is only happening in Free Agency currently but my belief is that is what free agency is for; market correction. At that point in your career you have shown the ability to earn what is given to you rather than having only one or two good years. If a high arb number is set for you in your first year of eligibility the expectation from that point going forward is that is what your performance has to be. After that, if your performance dips you can be non-tendered so they can bring the next flash in the pan reliever in to replace you. I guess based on my mindset int he business I work in my thought process always veers back to "you cant make decisions that are going to screw the company". In that case my opinions would certainly not be considered pro-player.
Don't forget that each arbitration case sets a precedent, not only for that player but for each subsequent arb case for all other comparable players as well. If a first year arb eligible reliever wins a case to earn $5 mil then that is now the new standard for about 2 years of great relief pitching at the beginning of your career. Relievers are wonky beasts that for some reason have issues with consistency in performance. If every reliever that had one or two good years is now expected to make at least $5 mil a year your salary dynamics for organizations will drastically change. Now we can also begin a discussion about how the exponential growth of salaries makes paying $5 mil for a good reliever a bargain these days but i digress.

I agree that it is pretty crappy to use stupid stats to make a case one way or another. Just listen to Scott Boras talk about one of his clients for more than a minute and a half...
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Old 12-02-2017, 02:31 PM   #14
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argument over clutch doesn't require knowing the sport. it's the same in all sports, and the same for all similar contexts.

clutch - thought of as someone that "raises" their performance in certain situations... (buahahah)

mostly the concept is the result of misperception of small samples of data being used to 'prove' things in irrational ways. e.g. how people evaluate the handful of ABs when barry bonds happened to make a playoff appearance. to judge by so few AB is just retarded... full retard.

so, individually you shouldn't even take note of it because it's irrational to do so with such shoddy data that tells you nothing but what you want to see... when you look at it from a wider league and multi-year perspective, the #'s show there is no such thing "clutch".

as far as not playing a college sport? totally irrelevant and fallacious reasoning. simply stated, there are numerous facets of this sport that the human eye is incapable of resolving. playing the game will never bring you to the right conclusion on numerous decisions. observing, tracking, mining can enlighten even a pro... simply look at how successful the organizations that have embraced being 'smart' about baseball as opposed to having feelings about it.

a baseball player knows more about when to lift weights so that they aren't sore on gameday... they have a better idea of what pitch is coming next etc etc. things that are intimately intertwined with day-to-day activites and on-field mind-games etc etc. i.e. functional knowledge.

despite what people say, baseball is quite simple and easily resolved. no argument about it. incontrevertable statement. arguing over different small sample results compared to what was predicted by that players track record is a total lack of understanding of what the stats are meant to convey.

it's a finite amount of rules, knowledge and situations that even a sub-100IQ can learn and master. there is nothing spectacularly sophisticated about it. saying the opposite doesn't change facts and you don't have to be good at nor physically play it to understand it.

you can influence your chance of success through preperation and wokring to reach your potential. you can never circumvent the law of independent results and over-confidence is not some magical substance that makes you 'better' at the right time.

getting used to somethign that makes you nervous or fearfull is not descriptive of 'clutch', imo... and that's really what's happening.. those that can get over the nerves remain in teh mlb, those that cannot will fail and likely leave the mlb sooner than later. their #'s are margninalized by those that remain = no such thing as clutch.

if it's about the actual results, absolutely no, no, no.
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Old 12-02-2017, 02:42 PM   #15
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relievers are volatile due to sample size...

as a comparison... start logging your SP after the first ~60ip of each year. they are likely nearly as volatile. (ANY 60ip.. even if randomly choosen as long as similar in ability in that time period - that's the point)

(**# of pitches and differences between RP/SP in uses makes some difference likely, but still going to ebb/flow around a baseline in similar ways.)

you'll see the same variance from year to year if you only look at a small slection of innings of SP. it's not the RP, it's more a function of use and small sample sizes.

ankiel had 1 good pitchign year, btw... easily a random blip. not unlike the "Bird". he wasn't a good pitcher.. he had one good year. very obviously possible that it's nothign to do with clutch and more about ability, yet common perception is that it has to be that Ankiel 'blew a tire'.

hmm high walk rate- temporarily dips for a year - high walk rate again... must be that he isn't clutch.. only possible conclusion
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