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Old 01-15-2015, 11:58 AM   #1
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Lineups against GB or FB pitchers

Against pitchers with extreme FB ratings, would it be smarter to play more power hitters, i.e. players with good gap and power ratings? Conversely, against GB pitchers, do you want to throw contact hitters, whom arguably would see more pitches that they could hit for singles, or do you want to go with gap hitters?
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Old 01-15-2015, 12:43 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JCarter93 View Post
Against pitchers with extreme FB ratings, would it be smarter to play more power hitters, i.e. players with good gap and power ratings? Conversely, against GB pitchers, do you want to throw contact hitters, whom arguably would see more pitches that they could hit for singles, or do you want to go with gap hitters?
If you have an obvious spot in the lineup maybe you pick a player based on that. However the people who get paid to make lineups IRL rarely change them unless an obvious platoon split exists or someone needs a rest. Would you take the leagues best hitter or top HR guy out of the lineup based on a pitcher tendency? A divisional opponent would love that and would tweak their rotation to make it happen at your home park.

I'd like to hear a field manager explain to the GM why his best two hitters are out of the starting lineup at home with an arch rival and a critical weekend series for the division lead coming up.
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Old 01-15-2015, 01:17 PM   #3
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Remember that you have at most 14 options for at least 8 lineup spots, most likely even less. A lot of those will be filled by players that are simply your best for this position against any kind of pitcher. Add injuries and rest for catchers and you're down to even less choice.

Maybe in some, rare, cases there is no clear winner between two position players and this might give one of those a slight edge, but for me it is more likely that defense or speed on the basepaths would make the difference.

The most likely scenario for me is if you don't have a Ortiz-style designated designated hitter, but fill the position depending on who is available. Because positional requirements and defense aren't factors there, two bench players with similar overall batting capability, but differing styles (contact vs. power hitter) might compete for the slot.
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Old 01-15-2015, 01:24 PM   #4
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If my power hitter isn't good enough to play against a ground ball pitcher, even an extreme one, then I better start looking for a different power hitter.
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Old 01-15-2015, 09:36 PM   #5
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Don't real life platoon splits show that GB hitters do better against FB pitchers and vice versa?
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Old 01-16-2015, 12:00 PM   #6
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As the average between a groundball and a flyball is a line drive, this combination should hit at least .500
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Old 01-16-2015, 01:30 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Dyzalot View Post
Don't real life platoon splits show that GB hitters do better against FB pitchers and vice versa?
It's in "The Book" but it's usefulness is questionable vs the handedness split. I'm a fan of Tango et al but I'd like to see more recent data before considering this anymore than fringe fantasy league fodder

Also keep in mind that these particular stats are volatile and can change significantly from season to season. Dallas Keuchel for example has the following GB/FB ratios for the last 3 seasons.

1.70
2.41
3.30

I doubt if that 3.3 is sustainable going forward. GB/FB tendencies as Tango et al say are heavily grouped around 1 for both batters and pitchers. Bottom line is that no one is going to sit a regular player to take advantage of this unless the circumstances fit ie a scheduled day off or a minor injury and only then if the handedness split is favorable.
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Old 01-16-2015, 05:00 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RchW View Post
It's in "The Book" but it's usefulness is questionable vs the handedness split. I'm a fan of Tango et al but I'd like to see more recent data before considering this anymore than fringe fantasy league fodder

Also keep in mind that these particular stats are volatile and can change significantly from season to season. Dallas Keuchel for example has the following GB/FB ratios for the last 3 seasons.

1.70
2.41
3.30

I doubt if that 3.3 is sustainable going forward. GB/FB tendencies as Tango et al say are heavily grouped around 1 for both batters and pitchers. Bottom line is that no one is going to sit a regular player to take advantage of this unless the circumstances fit ie a scheduled day off or a minor injury and only then if the handedness split is favorable.
So yes, it's there, but it's not as important as the handedness split? That might be helpful in some specific situations. Thanks guys!
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Old 01-16-2015, 08:34 PM   #9
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So yes, it's there, but it's not as important as the handedness split? That might be helpful in some specific situations. Thanks guys!
It is there but opposite of what you think. Your big HR hitters do best against extreme GB pitchers.
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Old 01-17-2015, 10:32 AM   #10
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Is this mimicked in ootp? If my pinch-hitting options against a GB or EX GB pitcher are power and contact, will power perform noticeably better?
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Old 01-17-2015, 10:43 AM   #11
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Quote:
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Is this mimicked in ootp? If my pinch-hitting options against a GB or EX GB pitcher are power and contact, will power perform noticeably better?
If you don't leverage the handedness split then there is no way to tell. If you do it will be swamped by the handedness split. Park factors may come into play. So against an XGB LHP in a park with a 0.82 HRLHB factor will you use a power but low contact lefty with high K or a high contact RHB with good eye and low K. I think the answer is pretty obvious.

Have you read "The Book". If not then you should.
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“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

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Old 01-17-2015, 11:20 AM   #12
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Quote:
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As the average between a groundball and a flyball is a line drive, this combination should hit at least .500
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Old 01-18-2015, 03:14 PM   #13
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I haven't read "the book", I'm also not from a baseball country, but I know that I'd usually should look for the handedness split, but that isn't always sensible.

For example against lefties I platoon my switch-hitting, basically a lefty from platoon splits DH/1B and one of my lefty outfielders to the bench. The fattie hits as fatties do, for power, the outfielder is fast and hits for contact. Against a righty reliever, I then have to choose from this 2 guys if I want to pinch-hit, which I usually do, seeing that these guys are starters against righties.

Well, sometimes you want contact, sometimes power, but if I'm unsure this could make the difference - if it is modeled!
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Old 01-18-2015, 04:34 PM   #14
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I'll re-read that section and get back to you. There are several other variables involved so it would be better if I get my ducks in a row. I can't say with any certainty that GB FB effects are in-game but it wouldn't shock me if they are. The batter/pitcher confrontation in-game is very complex.

May I ask what country you are from?
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“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

So much for personality. Albert Belle, a complete nut job was never traded and was the highest paid player in the game, twice!

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