WAR Miscalculation?

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Snider&Hodges

Hi guys,

Thanks for the replies. You guys were definitely on the right track. I looked at his fielding stats from the season (1910) and it's ATROCIOUS. At first, before I posted about this, I looked at errors. He made a fair share but there weren't at all terrible, compared to the league average. Then I looked at ZR today as it was mentioned, and GOOD LORD. I admittedly know little about ZR but I can take a guess that that is awful. And while his Infield Error rating is 75/100, his range is 20/100, so it makes sense.

This is a spectator league so I have no control over what that team does. There's no DH so if they want to keep playing him for his bat, even though he's an actual stalagmite on defense, more power to them.

It is in fact Nap Lajoie, but player development is 'average talent change randomness'. Fielding ratings are based on a 3-year period. There is no player rating recalc - I'm letting the OOTP engine develop these guys. To clarify, I don't mind at all that this happened, I think oddities like this is part of the OOTP fun. It just took me by shock because with how he's been swinging the bat, I never pictured this version of Lajoie as a less than replacement player, even at this age.

Yes!!! I guessed Nap Lajoie!!! WOOO!!! Already -6.5 ZR in 1911? Zoiks!!!

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Must be new in XX. I don't see it in 19.

In 19 and 16 as well (far right column in both cases)...

[Snider&Hodges]

Admittedly, this is the first time I've looked at his BSR. It sees to be all over the place. I'm not sure what happened in 03 but overall, he seems pretty average, if not slightly below. No bomb in 1910 like with the fielding. For what it's worth, his rating for Baserunning is 83/100.

But yeah, he's still trotting out at 2B and his defense is only getting worse. Ironically, the manager slightly favors defense over offense according to his ratings, lol. I could be far off, but I feel like ZR is a harder stat for the AI to comprehend than say, fielding percentage or errors. But who am I to say.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Must be new in XX. I don't see it in 19.

UBR is new in OOTPXX, but BsR has been around for quite a while. Step by step guide for BsR in OOTP19 coming up...

[actionjackson]

I failed to mention that I'm doing this on the Player Search & Shortlist page. Also, please excuse the horrible "Paint" skills in the third picture pointing out where to select BsR. Once you've customized your view the "Save View..." will appear between "Customize..." and "Default" in the View menu. Save it under a new name, and there you go...

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

I failed to mention that I'm doing this on the Player Search & Shortlist page. Also, please excuse the horrible "Paint" skills in the third picture pointing out where to select BsR. Once you've customized your view the "Save View..." will appear between "Customize..." and "Default" in the View menu. Save it under a new name, and there you go...

Hmm...it's right there.

Merci

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Snider&Hodges

Admittedly, this is the first time I've looked at his BSR. It sees to be all over the place. I'm not sure what happened in 03 but overall, he seems pretty average, if not slightly below. No bomb in 1910 like with the fielding. For what it's worth, his rating for Baserunning is 83/100.

But yeah, he's still trotting out at 2B and his defense is only getting worse. Ironically, the manager slightly favors defense over offense according to his ratings, lol. I could be far off, but I feel like ZR is a harder stat for the AI to comprehend than say, fielding percentage or errors. But who am I to say.

If anything, he's been better since 1906. Who knows.

Originally Posted by actionjackson

UBR is new in OOTPXX, but BsR has been around for quite a while. Step by step guide for BsR in OOTP19 coming up...

Weird that OOTP had BsR before UZR since UZR is a component of BsR.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Snider&Hodges

Admittedly, this is the first time I've looked at his BSR. It sees to be all over the place. I'm not sure what happened in 03 but overall, he seems pretty average, if not slightly below. No bomb in 1910 like with the fielding. For what it's worth, his rating for Baserunning is 83/100.

But yeah, he's still trotting out at 2B and his defense is only getting worse. Ironically, the manager slightly favors defense over offense according to his ratings, lol. I could be far off, but I feel like ZR is a harder stat for the AI to comprehend than say, fielding percentage or errors. But who am I to say.

The AI will almost always trot out an utter fielding catastrophe with an elite bat (think 2019 Josh Bell [2.5 fWAR despite a 135 wRC+ over 613 PA]), while leaving the amazing glove/noodle bat guy on the bench (think 2019 Andrelton Simmons [1.7 fWAR despite an 81 wRC+ over 424 PA]). The WARs of the two players cited are not that far apart, but Bell will probably be a regular, and Simmons might not see too much action. I suppose a more extreme/better example than Simmons' 2019 season historically would be Mark Belanger's 1975 season (4.3 fWAR with a 66 wRC+...Uh...How exactly does that happen?). I can pretty much guarantee that the AI would've stapled Belanger to the bench, and possibly put him in the minor leagues with that bat, even though his defense at SS would reeeally have helped the team win games. This tendency may have gotten better though. I'm not 100% sure, but the AI will probably favour the bat first guy when players are very strong at one skill and very not strong at the other.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Weird that OOTP had BsR before UZR since UZR is a component of BsR.

Isn't UZR a defensive metric, while BsR is an offensive one?

EDIT: I still don't see UZR in game. I believe ZR represents UZR though.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

Isn't UZR a defensive metric, while BsR is an offensive one?

Or are you talking about the Statcastish stuff (with the Routine, Likely, Even, Unlikely, Remote percentages)?

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

Isn't UZR a defensive metric, while BsR is an offensive one?

UBR, I meant

I must be getting old. I can't keep track of my UBRs, UZR's, VORPS, FLORPS, Ubers, or Lyfts.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

UBR, I meant

I must be getting old. I can't keep track of my UBRs, UZR's, VORPS, FLORPS, Ubers, or Lyfts.

Oh now you've done it. Here come the alphabet soup stat deniers.

Psst! NB: It's perfectly fine to look at whatever stats you want to look at. This is merely a joke, a funny, a ha-ha. Pay no attention to the idiot with the handle from a 30+ year old Carl Weathers movie. We now return you to your regularly scheduled postings.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

Oh now you've done it. Here come the alphabet soup stat deniers.

Psst! NB: It's perfectly fine to look at whatever stats you want to look at. This is merely a joke, a funny, a ha-ha. Pay no attention to the idiot with the handle from a 30+ year old Carl Weathers movie. We now return you to your regularly scheduled postings.

No.
I'm a big stat dude. Just slightly embarrassed I mixed up UBR and UZR. And I wanted to make that UBR/Uber joke, which was a good joke, BTW.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

No.
I'm a big stat dude. Just slightly embarrassed I mixed up UBR and UZR. And I wanted to make that UBR/Uber joke, which was a good joke, BTW.

That was a good joke actually. So good it whooshed over my head. Is UBR how Uber would be listed on the stock market (if indeed it is)?

[actionjackson]

I guess UBR and BsR are also on the Expanded Stats tab of each player's individual batting stats tab in OOTPXX as well, so they're kind of everywhere. They're not there in OOTP19 however.

[Snider&Hodges]

To give you guys an update - as if the game has been listening to our conversations - Lajoie started the season (1911) as the starting 2B but got benched about game 50.

Lajole has started in 49/66 games in this season. His OPS+ is down to 122, so his offense is starting to fade too, which probably made the decision a little easier for the manager. Lajoie's WAR is even worse now, at -1.2. His ZR is at -20.1. He's still the depth choice at 2B and the first pinch hitter off the bench. The game doesn't register 1B as a plausible choice for him.

He's very unhappy now because he expects to be in the middle of the lineup, so we'll see if the team ends up offloading him. I'd like to hope that the adventure of the best worst player in my league right now isn't over!

[Argonaut]

I don't think the AI is smart enough to move players down the defensive spectrum once their fielding declines. Players only seem to learn new positions if there's a lack of other players at that position, as is often the case in the minors. I'm talking about the development engine of course, if it's re-calc only you're stuck with what you've got.

Also, to actionjackson: I've seen firsthand the AI letting a Gold Glove caliber Mark Belanger ride the bench during the 70s in my historical dynasty. So you're right.

[Jamee999]

Weirdly, just before I saw this thread, I noticed that something similar had happened to Nap Lajoie in my alt-historical universe. I play with recalc off, so this is all development engine.

You can see that his defense rapidly deteriorated, going from being positive at 2B in 1906, to -15 as a 2B/SS in 1908, and then off a cliff in 1911 and 1912, before moving to Minnesota and playing purely as a pinch-hitter. You can see that he's still a really good hitter in 1912, with an OPS+ of 136, and leading the league in doubles, but apparently he was such a liability at second base (-54!!) that he was replacement-level.

I think that in real life, these guys almost always end up moving to first base or a corner outfield (or DH) rather than sticking at their original position, but that doesn't seem to be how OOTP's positional development scheme works. Lajoie's only career game at 1B in the sim came as a rookie. I don't get how he can be able to lead the league in doubles while apparently being a statue in the field.

(CC and WL are major leagues of roughly equal quality.)

[Reed]

I try to avoid the development engine but I wonder if it hits key defensive positions sooner and harder than other positions?

[Snider&Hodges]

Thanks Jamee, that's super interesting. It's funny to see how our Nap's were slightly different but, big picture, the same thing happened. That's wild that yours hit .362 in 1912 and then never started a game again in his career.

And Reed, I'm not sure but I wouldn't surprised. I used to play a fictional league and had a CF that turned like 31 or 32 and his defensive rating got absolutely tanked. I think I ended up trading him but he still kept playing because, as it's been said, the AI tends to excuse awful defense if a guy can hit, and that guy could hit pretty well.