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Old 12-17-2019, 06:46 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AirmenSmith View Post
This is one of the main things I try to change in OOTP modern leagues. Smallball is my favorite as well.

Same goes for pitchers going the distance as much as possible.
You shouldn't have to "try"; just change the era (time) of your league and massage the strategic tendencies.
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“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

So much for personality. Albert Belle, a complete nut job was never traded and was the highest paid player in the game, twice!

#Alternativefacts=lies
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Old 12-18-2019, 12:53 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich View Post
Because you have to steal at a very high percentage to break even in adding runs created to your team.
In today's run scoring environment where the home run is so important you need to score at close to an 80% success rate in order to even break even.

Lets say a modern player goes crazy and steals 140 bases in a season at a 82% success rate.
All of that running make look impressive but they would be adding just over 5 runs created to their offensive total.


Stealing bases just does not get you a lot unless you can do it at such a high rate that your almost guaranteed to never be thrown out.

Here is a good article from 2011 for various stealing scenarios.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking...k-even-points/
In the 8 years since the %s have climbed to 80% for almost every situation.
Giving away outs is just not a very smart move in modern offenses.
It is why the smarter teams do not do things like sacrifice bunt or other such nonsense. You only get 27 outs per game and they are way too valuable to give up.
Even more so when all nine guys in your lineup are capable of hitting 15 HRs a year.

The three true outcomes style of modern offense may be boring to watch but smart people in front offices have figured out the most efficient ways of scoring runs.
A strikeout is the same kind of out as a popout or a groundout to second. So might as well swing hard and increase your chances at a EBH.
And it is drilled into every batter from HS level on up to work the count and try and get on base via BB. Many still cant do it but more can do it now than in the past.

Once you get on, even the fastest players add very little via base stealing and most actually hurt their teams run creation chances by getting picked off or thrown out.
If you're Rickey Henderson, and get on base 40% of the time, you can get thrown out occasionally, and not hurt your team.

Rickey has scored more runs than any player in baseball history, for a reason.

If you're Billy Hamilton (the new version, not the old one), then getting on base 28% of the time, and THEN getting thrown out gets you out of baseball by age 30.
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:58 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by dsvitak View Post
If you're Rickey Henderson, and get on base 40% of the time, you can get thrown out occasionally, and not hurt your team.

Rickey has scored more runs than any player in baseball history, for a reason.

If you're Billy Hamilton (the new version, not the old one), then getting on base 28% of the time, and THEN getting thrown out gets you out of baseball by age 30.
Looking at their career stats, Hamilton was actually a better base runner than Henderson.

Hamilton produced almost 11.7 runs per 600 PA's on the bases
Henderson produced 6.5 runs per 600 PA's on the bases

There are some caveats, of course

The first is, that Henderson had over 4 times as many PA's as Hamilton. Which means that Henderson played longer, which means that Henderson played when he was older and slower.

The second, I'm not sure that baserunning was measured the same way during Henderson's career and Hamilton's

Third, Hamilton may have been used more often as a pinch runner - allowing him to accrue baserunning value without adding a plate appearance.

That said,

If we look at just their 2 best seasons, then we get
Hamilton 17.3 runs per 600 PA's
Henderson 12.8 runs per 600 PA's

If we just look at their age 24-29 seasons (Hamilton's career) we get
Hamilton 12.2 runs per 600
Henderson 9.7 runs per 600

Hamilton is probably the greatest base runner in MLB history.
*source: FanGraphs' BSR

If he's out of baseball next year, it won't be because of him getting thrown out on the bases. It won't have anything at all to do with what Hamilton did on the bases. Unless you count not being able to run enough to make up for the fact that he can't hit (at the major league level. If you saw him at the batting cage, you'd still be impressed, of course).
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Old 12-18-2019, 10:10 AM   #24
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AS a Reds fan, I was always amused when people would say, about Hamilton, "why don't the Reds teach him to bunt!"

I am pretty sure that coaches have been trying to teach Billy to bunt since the first time they saw him run.

I was also disappointed, when the rule for stealing first was being tested, that it only applied when the ball got away from the catcher. I envisioned Billy taking off as soon as the pitcher started towards the plate!
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Old 12-18-2019, 12:58 PM   #25
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I was also disappointed, when the rule for stealing first was being tested, that it only applied when the ball got away from the catcher. I envisioned Billy taking off as soon as the pitcher started towards the plate!
He would've just stopped taking a bat to the plate with him
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Old 12-27-2019, 12:59 PM   #26
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Homeruns, strikeouts and 3 1/2 hour games. Boring.
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