Leaving a lot of runners on base

Pallas · 04-02-2019, 05:53 PM

In my White Sox rebuild, we're 2nd in the AL in hits, 4th in batting average, and only 13th in runs scored. I'm routinely getting ten, eleven, and twelve hits a game but am struggling to score runs.

Is there anything I can do strategy-wise to turn more of these hits into runs? Or is this just a byproduct of just not being very good? I'm still trying to learn the game and how the engine works, so any advice how to better run a rebuild is appreciated.

BirdWatcher · 04-02-2019, 06:12 PM

How many games into the season are you?
This sounds like it might just be an issue with sequencing, meaning that what really matters most in terms of run scoring is when good outcomes happen, not just that that good outcomes occur. I'm realizing I'm not explaining this well. But basically it matters most that hits and/or walks are clumped together in an inning and not just scattered throughout a game. Obviously, the more good hitters you have getting hits the better the chance they combine these in meaningful ways that lead to runs.

Upshot is, I'm thinking this is a small sample size issue that will correct itself given time.
Then again, you've mentioned hits and batting average but not whether your team has a good OBP or good slugging. If the hits are mostly singles, and if you don't have many players who walk often, and especially if those things are true but you don't have great team speed and maybe you have guys who hit into double plays, well, a lot of hits might not lead to a lot of runs.

What can you do about it? Probably just wait a bit for it to self-correct. Batting order can play some role, but most evidence seems to indicate it doesn't make a very big difference, though every little advantage counts. (For instance, I try to make sure my number 2 guy in the lineup isn't someone prone to hit into a lot double plays.)

(Now, re-reading, I am reminded that you say this is a White Sox rebuild, and I'm guessing that means using the current White Sox team. So, yes, the answer might indeed be the "not being very good" thing you said above. Then the trick is to identify why your offense isn't very good and try to fix it. Which hopefully means some of what I typed above is still relevant and slightly helpful.)

jimmysthebestcop · 04-02-2019, 06:31 PM

Prob not very good. Need to up those extra base hits, dinners, cut down on k's etc

Pallas · 04-02-2019, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

How many games into the season are you?
This sounds like it might just be an issue with sequencing, meaning that what really matters most in terms of run scoring is when good outcomes happen, not just that that good outcomes occur. I'm realizing I'm not explaining this well. But basically it matters most that hits and/or walks are clumped together in an inning and not just scattered throughout a game. Obviously, the more good hitters you have getting hits the better the chance they combine these in meaningful ways that lead to runs.

Upshot is, I'm thinking this is a small sample size issue that will correct itself given time.
Then again, you've mentioned hits and batting average but not whether your team has a good OBP or good slugging. If the hits are mostly singles, and if you don't have many players who walk often, and especially if those things are true but you don't have great team speed and maybe you have guys who hit into double plays, well, a lot of hits might not lead to a lot of runs.

What can you do about it? Probably just wait a bit for it to self-correct. Batting order can play some role, but most evidence seems to indicate it doesn't make a very big difference, though every little advantage counts. (For instance, I try to make sure my number 2 guy in the lineup isn't someone prone to hit into a lot double plays.)

(Now, re-reading, I am reminded that you say this is a White Sox rebuild, and I'm guessing that means using the current White Sox team. So, yes, the answer might indeed be the "not being very good" thing you said above. Then the trick is to identify why your offense isn't very good and try to fix it. Which hopefully means some of what I typed above is still relevant and slightly helpful.)

All very good points, and I understand what you mean. To answer some of your questions, we're 42 games in (17-25, on pace to surpass the 56-win projection). My OBP is low -- .304, 14th in the AL. And we do strikeout a lot. Usually at the worst times.Our home runs are also low -- 35, 15th in the AL.

So I guess, yeah, I'm just focusing on the wrong things. And we're just not very good. Eloy Jimenez is having a very good rookie year, so that's a bright spot.

Pallas · 04-02-2019, 07:32 PM

Another frustrating stat: We're 2-10 in one-run games.

jimmysthebestcop · 04-02-2019, 07:36 PM

Your the white Sox be grateful your owner doesn't relocate you lol

Pallas · 04-02-2019, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

Your the white Sox be grateful your owner doesn't relocate you lol

Fair.

BirdWatcher · 04-02-2019, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pallas

All very good points, and I understand what you mean. To answer some of your questions, we're 42 games in (17-25, on pace to surpass the 56-win projection). My OBP is low -- .304, 14th in the AL. And we do strikeout a lot. Usually at the worst times.Our home runs are also low -- 35, 15th in the AL.

So I guess, yeah, I'm just focusing on the wrong things. And we're just not very good. Eloy Jimenez is having a very good rookie year, so that's a bright spot.

Yeah, those all sound like bad signs. Likely this will be a problem all season unless you can make some moves to change the talent in the lineup. It sounds like it will be a pretty inefficient offense.
But hey, get some more young talent like Jimenez and the future looks brighter, at least.

NoOne · 04-02-2019, 08:06 PM

batting average alone isn't much. without any slugging it's not going to score you many runs if you have a lineup of singles-machines -- even if they steal bases like ricky henderson it make get you sub-average to average results in a modern-power-esque league.

you could leage the lead in BA and have a bottom 1/3rd offense. it'd be really had to do that with slugging or OBP. (or even better metrics like woba / wrc+ etc)

obp is more correlated to RS than BA, as poorly weighted as OBP is. a higher obp with a larger portion of BA is better than the reverse, for obvious reasons. singles > bb, but ignoring walks isn't wise. not as important in ootp as RL as far as in-game strats and the little side-games of manipulation and nuance that isn't quite modeled except lumped into an overall average of the #s over time.

so a 350ba/356obp is better than a 280/356 guy, hands down and twice on sunday in OoTp... and likely RL if oyu hit 350, but in less extreme cases it may not be plausible in RL to have that small of a difference between ba and obp... pitchers would take advantage of the too-aggressive approach and he'd go the way of brennan boesch and the like. bosch? whatver...

in ootp i wouldn't worry one bit about walk rate, if obp is "high". in fact, favor those types of players, for reasons laid out above.

if ~14th in obp/slugging, expect to be middle of the road in RS (+/- 5-10 places @ 1/3rd of season). if it's deviating significantly from that estimate, it's more likely bad luck, good luck or small sample size ramifications than anything else. lots of volatility to account for early in season and even a full season of data.

USF · 04-03-2019, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pallas

In my White Sox rebuild, we're 2nd in the AL in hits, 4th in batting average, and only 13th in runs scored. I'm routinely getting ten, eleven, and twelve hits a game but am struggling to score runs.

Is there anything I can do strategy-wise to turn more of these hits into runs? Or is this just a byproduct of just not being very good? I'm still trying to learn the game and how the engine works, so any advice how to better run a rebuild is appreciated.

You can try tweaking your batting lineup. Look for players that might be killing you with double plays.

KBLover · 04-03-2019, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

so a 350ba/356obp is better than a 280/356 guy, hands down and twice on sunday in OoTp... and likely RL if oyu hit 350, but in less extreme cases it may not be plausible in RL to have that small of a difference between ba and obp... pitchers would take advantage of the too-aggressive approach and he'd go the way of brennan boesch and the like. bosch? whatver...

I'm surprised the manager AI wouldn't identify this player as having a poor eye rating (I mean he's taken like 10 walks in half a season or something...) and pitch around him and let him chase, especially if the pitcher has high Stuff and/or the batter has anything short of an elite AvK (i.e. he's not a Vlad type who can swing at pitch that bounces and hit a home run)

04-02-2019, 05:53 PM	#1
Pallas Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 25	Leaving a lot of runners on base In my White Sox rebuild, we're 2nd in the AL in hits, 4th in batting average, and only 13th in runs scored. I'm routinely getting ten, eleven, and twelve hits a game but am struggling to score runs. Is there anything I can do strategy-wise to turn more of these hits into runs? Or is this just a byproduct of just not being very good? I'm still trying to learn the game and how the engine works, so any advice how to better run a rebuild is appreciated.

04-02-2019, 06:12 PM	#2
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,262	How many games into the season are you? This sounds like it might just be an issue with sequencing, meaning that what really matters most in terms of run scoring is when good outcomes happen, not just that that good outcomes occur. I'm realizing I'm not explaining this well. But basically it matters most that hits and/or walks are clumped together in an inning and not just scattered throughout a game. Obviously, the more good hitters you have getting hits the better the chance they combine these in meaningful ways that lead to runs. Upshot is, I'm thinking this is a small sample size issue that will correct itself given time. Then again, you've mentioned hits and batting average but not whether your team has a good OBP or good slugging. If the hits are mostly singles, and if you don't have many players who walk often, and especially if those things are true but you don't have great team speed and maybe you have guys who hit into double plays, well, a lot of hits might not lead to a lot of runs. What can you do about it? Probably just wait a bit for it to self-correct. Batting order can play some role, but most evidence seems to indicate it doesn't make a very big difference, though every little advantage counts. (For instance, I try to make sure my number 2 guy in the lineup isn't someone prone to hit into a lot double plays.) (Now, re-reading, I am reminded that you say this is a White Sox rebuild, and I'm guessing that means using the current White Sox team. So, yes, the answer might indeed be the "not being very good" thing you said above. Then the trick is to identify why your offense isn't very good and try to fix it. Which hopefully means some of what I typed above is still relevant and slightly helpful.)

04-02-2019, 06:31 PM	#3
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,728 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	Prob not very good. Need to up those extra base hits, dinners, cut down on k's etc

04-02-2019, 07:32 PM	#5
Pallas Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 25	Another frustrating stat: We're 2-10 in one-run games.

04-02-2019, 07:36 PM	#6
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,728 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	Your the white Sox be grateful your owner doesn't relocate you lol

04-02-2019, 08:06 PM	#9
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	batting average alone isn't much. without any slugging it's not going to score you many runs if you have a lineup of singles-machines -- even if they steal bases like ricky henderson it make get you sub-average to average results in a modern-power-esque league. you could leage the lead in BA and have a bottom 1/3rd offense. it'd be really had to do that with slugging or OBP. (or even better metrics like woba / wrc+ etc) obp is more correlated to RS than BA, as poorly weighted as OBP is. a higher obp with a larger portion of BA is better than the reverse, for obvious reasons. singles > bb, but ignoring walks isn't wise. not as important in ootp as RL as far as in-game strats and the little side-games of manipulation and nuance that isn't quite modeled except lumped into an overall average of the #s over time. so a 350ba/356obp is better than a 280/356 guy, hands down and twice on sunday in OoTp... and likely RL if oyu hit 350, but in less extreme cases it may not be plausible in RL to have that small of a difference between ba and obp... pitchers would take advantage of the too-aggressive approach and he'd go the way of brennan boesch and the like. bosch? whatver... in ootp i wouldn't worry one bit about walk rate, if obp is "high". in fact, favor those types of players, for reasons laid out above. if ~14th in obp/slugging, expect to be middle of the road in RS (+/- 5-10 places @ 1/3rd of season). if it's deviating significantly from that estimate, it's more likely bad luck, good luck or small sample size ramifications than anything else. lots of volatility to account for early in season and even a full season of data.