We put Manny Machado and Bryce Harper on a lot of teams - an OOTP/FiveThirtyEight collaboration

Rich Grisham · 02-08-2019, 05:10 PM

Since no one in the real world seems to want to sign the two prize free agents of the off-season, we decided to work with FiveThirtyEight.com to figure it out ourselves.

Enjoy!

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...fferent-teams/

paul.m.w. · 02-09-2019, 05:50 AM

Thanks for sharing

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pgjocki · 02-09-2019, 11:09 AM

Living in the DC area and having the unique circumstances to have seen both Harper and Machado play in person I feel that I am in the minority that would rather see Machado in St. Louis than Harper.

I think 2015 was a fluke and that Harper won't age well over a long term contract. If Manny can get a positive role model and go back to 3B and realize he can be a dominant force for the next 7 to 10 years he could be a boss.

Orcin · 02-09-2019, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgjocki

Living in the DC area and having the unique circumstances to have seen both Harper and Machado play in person I feel that I am in the minority that would rather see Machado in St. Louis than Harper.

I think 2015 was a fluke and that Harper won't age well over a long term contract. If Manny can get a positive role model and go back to 3B and realize he can be a dominant force for the next 7 to 10 years he could be a boss.

Can we have both? It's not my money...

Hrycaj · 02-09-2019, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgjocki

Living in the DC area and having the unique circumstances to have seen both Harper and Machado play in person I feel that I am in the minority that would rather see Machado in St. Louis than Harper.

I think 2015 was a fluke and that Harper won't age well over a long term contract. If Manny can get a positive role model and go back to 3B and realize he can be a dominant force for the next 7 to 10 years he could be a boss.

I'm glad the Tigers are in no position to sign either to be honest. However, if I had to pick one it would be Machado. He has been more consistent at a more valuable position (whether that is SS or 3B). I know the Harper camp is all about selling a "brand" with him and that he will put people in the stadium. However, I think Machado does the same thing even as he seemingly is becoming a baseball villian. Which is something that may be missing from the sport anyway.

NoOne · 02-10-2019, 04:46 PM

the tigers are no longer the same organization with new ownership. they will not be spending 180-200+M /year with this current iteration of the illitch family. this is a cash cow, now, or soon to be sold. it's not the toy/obsession of their father anymore.

had they spent more wisely 2006-2013ish, they would have had more success. so many over-reaching mistakes of a desperate person -- doubly so the last couple years of his ownership when the ship had already sailed on any WS hopes. sorry, i view that period of detroit baseball as a gigantic wasted opportunity and numerous examples of financial mismanagement and other problems -- like a total ignorance of basic applications of math.

tbh, we'd be better off if the sister was running this portion of the illitch holdings. it's unfotunate we get the gomer offspring with a little hint of white powder on his upper lip at any moment in time that's running the sports side of their business. he's the 'lesser' family option, lol. nepotism.... highly inefficient

neither of these guys are good on a 10 year contract. few would be, if any. that's a cultural issue amongst mlb gm -- if you are most likely not to be there when the bill comes due, why worry about that bill? nature of that job to have a short-term outlook for selfish reasons not pertaining to the benefit of the team.

harper probably brings more wins, but at what cost (heh, 538 agrees on production)? 30M or more? no way, for either of these players. both players' offenses have holes, but if machado comes in cheaper, you could argue that's the better sign. only the largest markets can even consider such a horrendously bad contract from either of these guys for upto ~5 years at the end. that's only assuming those large markets aren't already over-extended in this window of time on other bad contracts. these guys are young enough that a 7-8 year contract may not have nearly as many risks as 10 years.

i think their seasons accurately represent what they are. the quantative data is there and available for all. so, if there's any inside info on how hard they keep themselves in shape, that would be key. harper isn't his peak season and he isn't his worst, either. if i recall, his bad seasons are him playing through injuries? which questions his durability.

Hacksaw86 · 02-11-2019, 09:57 AM

This simulation got mentioned on local sports talk radio this morning in St. Louis. Nice to see OOTP getting some exposure and love! Now if only the Cardinals could actually sign Harper for 7 years and $151 million......

pgjocki · 02-11-2019, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hacksaw86

This simulation got mentioned on local sports talk radio this morning in St. Louis. Nice to see OOTP getting some exposure and love! Now if only the Cardinals could actually sign Harper for 7 years and $151 million......

For $150 I'd change my mind. The Giants are rumored to be offering around $150 on a 4 year deal so we shall see.

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02-08-2019, 05:10 PM	#1
Rich Grisham Biz Dev Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 350	We put Manny Machado and Bryce Harper on a lot of teams - an OOTP/FiveThirtyEight collaboration Since no one in the real world seems to want to sign the two prize free agents of the off-season, we decided to work with FiveThirtyEight.com to figure it out ourselves. Enjoy! https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...fferent-teams/

02-09-2019, 05:50 AM	#2
paul.m.w. Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 417	Thanks for sharing Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ Using Tapatalk

02-09-2019, 11:09 AM	#3
pgjocki All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Maryland - just outside DC Posts: 1,483	Living in the DC area and having the unique circumstances to have seen both Harper and Machado play in person I feel that I am in the minority that would rather see Machado in St. Louis than Harper. I think 2015 was a fluke and that Harper won't age well over a long term contract. If Manny can get a positive role model and go back to 3B and realize he can be a dominant force for the next 7 to 10 years he could be a boss. __________________ - - - World Series championships: 1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, 1982, 2006, 2011

02-10-2019, 04:46 PM	#6
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	the tigers are no longer the same organization with new ownership. they will not be spending 180-200+M /year with this current iteration of the illitch family. this is a cash cow, now, or soon to be sold. it's not the toy/obsession of their father anymore. had they spent more wisely 2006-2013ish, they would have had more success. so many over-reaching mistakes of a desperate person -- doubly so the last couple years of his ownership when the ship had already sailed on any WS hopes. sorry, i view that period of detroit baseball as a gigantic wasted opportunity and numerous examples of financial mismanagement and other problems -- like a total ignorance of basic applications of math. tbh, we'd be better off if the sister was running this portion of the illitch holdings. it's unfotunate we get the gomer offspring with a little hint of white powder on his upper lip at any moment in time that's running the sports side of their business. he's the 'lesser' family option, lol. nepotism.... highly inefficient neither of these guys are good on a 10 year contract. few would be, if any. that's a cultural issue amongst mlb gm -- if you are most likely not to be there when the bill comes due, why worry about that bill? nature of that job to have a short-term outlook for selfish reasons not pertaining to the benefit of the team. harper probably brings more wins, but at what cost (heh, 538 agrees on production)? 30M or more? no way, for either of these players. both players' offenses have holes, but if machado comes in cheaper, you could argue that's the better sign. only the largest markets can even consider such a horrendously bad contract from either of these guys for upto ~5 years at the end. that's only assuming those large markets aren't already over-extended in this window of time on other bad contracts. these guys are young enough that a 7-8 year contract may not have nearly as many risks as 10 years. i think their seasons accurately represent what they are. the quantative data is there and available for all. so, if there's any inside info on how hard they keep themselves in shape, that would be key. harper isn't his peak season and he isn't his worst, either. if i recall, his bad seasons are him playing through injuries? which questions his durability.

02-11-2019, 09:57 AM	#7
Hacksaw86 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 97	This simulation got mentioned on local sports talk radio this morning in St. Louis. Nice to see OOTP getting some exposure and love! Now if only the Cardinals could actually sign Harper for 7 years and $151 million......