Fan Loyalty

tejdog1 · 08-29-2017, 10:50 AM

How the heck does this work?
I started a new expansion franchise, so I can understand if fans are hesistant to get behind it at first, especially because I did tank hard the first three seasons (50, 55, 67 wins), but the last six years we've made the playoffs with 5 WS wins (yeah solo league).

Fan loyalty has been "pathetic" since Day 1 and hasn't improved one iota. Neither has market size. What gives?

Snarf054 · 08-29-2017, 01:17 PM

Do you do a lot of wheeling and dealing? Fans get attached to players and if you have a constantly revolving door it will hurt your fan loyalty.

Matt Uk · 08-29-2017, 02:01 PM

Perhaps it takes a while for the players to become "locally" popular?

tejdog1 · 08-29-2017, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snarf054

Do you do a lot of wheeling and dealing? Fans get attached to players and if you have a constantly revolving door it will hurt your fan loyalty.

I have had to trade away some popular players, yeah. Unfortunately, my owner is ... um... very Bad.

But I've kept a core group around for years, and we've been consistently winning hardcore.

Shouldn't the consistent winning keep fans very loyal?

slugger922cubs · 08-30-2017, 01:51 PM

"Market size" equals how many baseball fans there are in a market to draw or who are particularly drawn to that team overall. It is not directly related to media markets or populations. Example is the Cubs have a much larger market than the White Sox. Likewise for the Giants and Athletics.
"Fan Loyalty" is how loyal those fans are to the team. Essentially this determines how likely fans are to stay committed to the team through bad seasons.
Neither of these factors changes fast in either direction.
Lastly, there is "Fan interest". This is how interested fan are on the team. This number is driven by winning and player popularity. Basically how hyped people are about the team. It is much more variable. My guess is the why you're thinking of Fan Loyalty you are actually thinking of Fan Interest.

Lamorak · 08-30-2017, 08:47 PM

8 season's into a franchise (Challenge mode).
6 playoff appearances.
2 championships.
.610 winning percentage.
6 Year franchise player face of the organization (RoY, 1 GG, 1 MVP, 6 time all-star, 5 silver slugger awards)
My fan interest has pretty much buried the needle every season.

I started as 'small market', 'below average' fan loyalty club. It hasn't moved a titch.

At some point the lack of improvement of my market or loyalty became a joke. I told my wife it was 'b#ll****! We're the sh#t!! If this was a real team kids would be wearing my ball caps from NY to LA."

tejdog1 · 08-30-2017, 08:55 PM

I mean if this were a real franchise, people would literally demand a statue of myself erected in front of the ballpark

Lamorak · 08-30-2017, 09:02 PM

Exactly! There will soon be a generation of fans growing up named after star players! Grand fathers will tell stories of having seen so-and-so do such-and-such to the children! And there will be tattoos. Tattoos a plenty!

I'm pretty sure at least some of them will be loyal fans.

joefromchicago · 08-31-2017, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tejdog1

Shouldn't the consistent winning keep fans very loyal?

I can't give you any insights into the ways that OOTP measures market size and fan loyalty, but history definitely shows that teams that win consistently don't necessarily draw bigger and bigger crowds.

The Braves made it to the playoffs every year from 1991 to 2005 (except for the 1994 strike year - and they probably would have made it to playoffs that year as well). Yet their highest attendance was in 1993 - and that was even after they moved into a new stadium in 1997;
The Yankees went to the postseason every year but one from 1995 to 2012, but their highest per-game attendance figure came in 2008 - the one year that they didn't reach the playoffs;
Likewise, the Yanks went to the World Series 14 times in 16 years from 1949 to 1964, but their per-game attendance in 1964 was almost half of what it was in 1949;
The Oakland A's won three consecutive World Series from 1972 to 1974 and their attendance was worse at the end than it was in beginning (that seems to be an A's curse - the same thing happened in 1910-14 and 1929-31);
The Orioles made it to the playoffs five times in six years from 1969 to 1974, but they drew about 1,300 fewer fans per game in 1974 than they did in 1969.

Now, it's true that there were many factors that can explain these results (e.g. the Yankees drew a lot of fans in 2008 because that was the last year for the old Yankee Stadium), and there are lots of counter-examples, but then that just proves that there are a bunch of things that go into determining attendance besides a team's won-loss record. OOTP models those factors imperfectly, it must be admitted, but it's not unrealistic to see attendance remain stagnant or even drop for a team that wins consistently.

slugger922cubs · 08-31-2017, 12:49 PM

I think people here are overvaluing winning in this equation. Loyalty and market size are underlying values that drive other factors. The LV Sharks drew over 3M many years. In OOTP that's fan interest, not loyalty. The Sharks Interest is high. Loyalty changes much more slowly. The Diamondbacks opened thier history with 5 winning seasons, 3 playoff appearances, and a WS title in thier first 6 years. It didn't amount to any sort of loyalty. In fact, today the franchise is 20 years old and struggling to get people to come to games even with having thier best season in 8 years. They are a little up attendance wise this year but theyve also found ways to give out cheap tickets and had a few highly attended weekend games while they were hot in early summer. Now its gotten rough again. Long story short winning is not the only thing that creates loyalty.

Matt Uk · 08-31-2017, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tejdog1

I mean if this were a real franchise, people would literally demand a statue of myself erected in front of the ballpark

Well they would have but 2022... Shocker.

The thing to bear in mind is that loyalty and the amount of fans don't go hand in hand. There will always be a hardcore support of any sports team but that doesn't mean the over all loyalty within the total crowd will grow.

As Sluggers says the crowd may grow if you're winning but that they are unlikely to be full of people who will come back once the winning stops.

matt2053 · 09-01-2017, 01:56 PM

My guess (just a guess) would be that attendance is driven by fan interest only.

Fan interest is driven by winning/losing, and player popularity.

Fan interest then would fluctuate.

I believe fan loyalty acts as a sort of elasticity monitor for fan interest. If loyalty is high, then fan interest is probably less dramatically impacted by losing seasons or by losing popular players. If loyalty is low, you'd see bigger fluctuations in fan interest based on results and popularity.

I don't think fan loyalty even changes over time, does it? It's just an attribute of that market, like population and market size.

08-29-2017, 10:50 AM	#1
tejdog1 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Danbury, CT Posts: 1,618	Fan Loyalty How the heck does this work? I started a new expansion franchise, so I can understand if fans are hesistant to get behind it at first, especially because I did tank hard the first three seasons (50, 55, 67 wins), but the last six years we've made the playoffs with 5 WS wins (yeah solo league). Fan loyalty has been "pathetic" since Day 1 and hasn't improved one iota. Neither has market size. What gives? __________________ It's amazing How you make your face just like a wall How you take your heart and turn it off How I turn my head and lose it all And it's unnerving How just one move puts me by myself There you go just trusting someone else Now I know I put us both through hell ~Matchbox 20, "Leave" Everyone knows it's spelled "TRAID", not trade

08-30-2017, 08:55 PM	#7
tejdog1 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Danbury, CT Posts: 1,618	I mean if this were a real franchise, people would literally demand a statue of myself erected in front of the ballpark __________________ It's amazing How you make your face just like a wall How you take your heart and turn it off How I turn my head and lose it all And it's unnerving How just one move puts me by myself There you go just trusting someone else Now I know I put us both through hell ~Matchbox 20, "Leave" Everyone knows it's spelled "TRAID", not trade

08-29-2017, 01:17 PM	#2
Snarf054 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 127	Do you do a lot of wheeling and dealing? Fans get attached to players and if you have a constantly revolving door it will hurt your fan loyalty.

08-29-2017, 02:01 PM	#3
Matt Uk Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: UK Posts: 450	Perhaps it takes a while for the players to become "locally" popular?

08-30-2017, 01:51 PM	#5
slugger922cubs Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 311	"Market size" equals how many baseball fans there are in a market to draw or who are particularly drawn to that team overall. It is not directly related to media markets or populations. Example is the Cubs have a much larger market than the White Sox. Likewise for the Giants and Athletics. "Fan Loyalty" is how loyal those fans are to the team. Essentially this determines how likely fans are to stay committed to the team through bad seasons. Neither of these factors changes fast in either direction. Lastly, there is "Fan interest". This is how interested fan are on the team. This number is driven by winning and player popularity. Basically how hyped people are about the team. It is much more variable. My guess is the why you're thinking of Fan Loyalty you are actually thinking of Fan Interest.

08-30-2017, 08:47 PM	#6
Lamorak Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 195	8 season's into a franchise (Challenge mode). 6 playoff appearances. 2 championships. .610 winning percentage. 6 Year franchise player face of the organization (RoY, 1 GG, 1 MVP, 6 time all-star, 5 silver slugger awards) My fan interest has pretty much buried the needle every season. I started as 'small market', 'below average' fan loyalty club. It hasn't moved a titch. At some point the lack of improvement of my market or loyalty became a joke. I told my wife it was 'b#ll****! We're the sh#t!! If this was a real team kids would be wearing my ball caps from NY to LA."

08-30-2017, 09:02 PM	#8
Lamorak Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 195	Exactly! There will soon be a generation of fans growing up named after star players! Grand fathers will tell stories of having seen so-and-so do such-and-such to the children! And there will be tattoos. Tattoos a plenty! I'm pretty sure at least some of them will be loyal fans.

08-31-2017, 12:49 PM	#10
slugger922cubs Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 311	I think people here are overvaluing winning in this equation. Loyalty and market size are underlying values that drive other factors. The LV Sharks drew over 3M many years. In OOTP that's fan interest, not loyalty. The Sharks Interest is high. Loyalty changes much more slowly. The Diamondbacks opened thier history with 5 winning seasons, 3 playoff appearances, and a WS title in thier first 6 years. It didn't amount to any sort of loyalty. In fact, today the franchise is 20 years old and struggling to get people to come to games even with having thier best season in 8 years. They are a little up attendance wise this year but theyve also found ways to give out cheap tickets and had a few highly attended weekend games while they were hot in early summer. Now its gotten rough again. Long story short winning is not the only thing that creates loyalty.

09-01-2017, 01:56 PM	#12
matt2053 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 55	My guess (just a guess) would be that attendance is driven by fan interest only. Fan interest is driven by winning/losing, and player popularity. Fan interest then would fluctuate. I believe fan loyalty acts as a sort of elasticity monitor for fan interest. If loyalty is high, then fan interest is probably less dramatically impacted by losing seasons or by losing popular players. If loyalty is low, you'd see bigger fluctuations in fan interest based on results and popularity. I don't think fan loyalty even changes over time, does it? It's just an attribute of that market, like population and market size.