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Old 07-07-2008, 01:49 AM   #1
BPS
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Minor league stats in 1870s WAY off

I have 8 team ML league beginning in 1871 with AAA, AA, A, R, C, and HS. (edit: it's a fictional league.) Using defaults for league totals/modifiers along with having "Automatically adjust league total modifiers after each season for historical accuracy" for all league levels.

In 1871 and 1872 ML and minor league stats were appropriate given the era.

Then starting in 1873: my ML totals are not too far away from the totals of the National Association in the 1870s and HS numbers also seem reasonable.

But AAA, AA, A, and Rookie league totals are WAY off: league-wide BAs are in the low- to mid-.100 and Ks are huge. For instance, eight pitchers in the rookie league averaged over 20ks per 9 innings. I've got prospects hitting in the .070 range in the minors and some are not very happy about this. ;> The problem continued in 1874.

Is anyone else running minor leagues in the 1870s having the same problem?

Last edited by BPS; 07-07-2008 at 01:51 AM.
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Old 07-07-2008, 02:36 AM   #2
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Thinking perhaps my one game file was weird, I started a fresh game with defaults for stats and with "automatic adjustment of league modifiers" check marked. I didn't change anything created automatically by the game but left all at the defaults.

Here's what I got for league average BA for 1871 to 1874:

ML: .287, .287, .288, .274
COL: .269, .266, .280, .260
HS: .307, .308, .331, .303

These three leagues seem okay, although HS is perhaps a bit high

but I also get for league average BA:
AAA: .253, .178, .181, .181
AA: .222, .149, .157, .172
A: .212, .132, .150, .159
SA: .214, .143, .147, .151
R: .233, .150, .146, .147

And here's part of the history listing of one minor league pitcher (who in one game stuck out 31 players!): [edit: note he was not good enough to ever be identified as a top prospect...just a run-of-the-mill player]

Player History
04-06-1872 Pitches a 4-hit shutout against the Union Night Hawks with 15 strikeouts and 0 BB allowed!
04-21-1872 Pitches a 3-hit shutout against the Glendale Backburners with 16 strikeouts and 1 BB allowed!
04-25-1872 Injured (torn back muscle), out for 2-3 months.
07-29-1872 Pitches a NO-HITTER against the Louisville Titanics with 22 strikeouts and 0 BB allowed!
08-04-1872 Strikes out 16 against the Chesapeake Traders.
08-10-1872 Pitches a 2-hit shutout against the Corpus Christi Stealers with 18 strikeouts and 2 BB allowed!
01-01-1873 OSA scouting updated ratings (potential): Stuff: 9 (10); Movement: 15 (15); Control: 17 (18).
05-18-1873 Pitches a 1-hit shutout against the Norfolk Militia with 18 strikeouts and 5 BB allowed!
05-28-1873 Strikes out 24 against the Davidsville Redcaps.
06-09-1873 Pitches a 1-hit shutout against the Baton Rouge Kingfishers with 20 strikeouts and 1 BB allowed!
06-18-1873 Strikes out 20 against the Norfolk Militia.
07-01-1873 Strikes out 24 against the Atlanta Swallows.
07-29-1873 Pitches a NO-HITTER against the Baton Rouge Kingfishers with 20 strikeouts and 0 BB allowed!
08-04-1873 Strikes out 20 against the Chula Vista Jailbreakers.
08-11-1873 Strikes out 20 against the Union Night Hawks.
08-16-1873 Strikes out 16 against the Atlanta Swallows.
08-17-1873 Pitches a 5-hit shutout against the Atlanta Swallows with 17 strikeouts and 3 BB allowed!
08-23-1873 Strikes out 23 against the Glendale Backburners.
08-30-1873 Pitches a 1-hit shutout against the Chula Vista Jailbreakers with 18 strikeouts and 1 BB allowed!
08-31-1873 Won the 1873 FBL Single A Round 1 with the Cleveland Threshers!
01-01-1874 OSA scouting updated ratings (potential): Stuff: 10 (10); Movement: 14 (14); Control: 17 (18).
04-22-1874 Strikes out 18 against the Madison Pirates.
04-26-1874 Strikes out 17 against the Bakersfield Salamanders.
05-02-1874 Strikes out 15 against the Louisville Leprechauns.
05-04-1874 Strikes out 31 against the Madison Pirates.
05-24-1874 Strikes out 15 against the Tampa Sinks.
06-20-1874 Pitches a 4-hit shutout against the Arlington Albacores with 13 strikeouts and 7 BB allowed!
06-24-1874 Strikes out 18 against the Mount Healthy Spearmen.
06-30-1874 Strikes out 15 against the Bakersfield Salamanders.
07-06-1874 Pitches a 2-hit shutout against the Louisville Leprechauns with 17 strikeouts and 2 BB allowed!
07-09-1874 Strikes out 20 against the Birmingham Bayonets.
07-12-1874 Strikes out 21 against the Birmingham Bayonets.
07-24-1874 Pitches a 5-hit shutout against the Bakersfield Salamanders with 14 strikeouts and 0 BB allowed!
07-25-1874 Strikes out 21 against the Bakersfield Salamanders.
07-29-1874 Pitches a 6-hit shutout against the Louisville Leprechauns with 20 strikeouts and 4 BB allowed!
08-06-1874 Strikes out 16 against the Mount Healthy Spearmen.
08-12-1874 Strikes out 15 against the Arlington Albacores.
08-18-1874 Strikes out 18 against the Tampa Sinks.
08-23-1874 Strikes out 17 against the Louisville Leprechauns.
08-26-1874 Pitches a 6-hit shutout against the Bakersfield Salamanders with 28 strikeouts and 8 BB allowed!

Last edited by BPS; 07-07-2008 at 02:40 AM.
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Old 07-07-2008, 02:45 AM   #3
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I have a developing theory. What schedule are you using? Are you using one man rotations with the game generated schedules?
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Old 07-07-2008, 02:55 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swampdragon View Post
I have a developing theory. What schedule are you using? Are you using one man rotations with the game generated schedules?
For the league referenced in the second posting above, I used everything automatically generated by the game (including schedules) but used 1870s settings (one-man rotation).

But in the league referenced in the first posting, I generated my own ML schedule with games every other day with one-man rotations. I found in previous trial leagues that the automatically generated schedules (with games played mostly without a break between game days) pitchers got too tired to get the appropriate number of appearances. The total games played in a season ran from about 30 to about 60. With an every-other-day game schedule, pitchers seemed to get about the right number of games started in a season.

The minor leagues played a somewhat fewer games than the ML teams but still used automatically generated schedules. But I set rotations to 2-man so that more pitchers would get innings.

Perhaps related, but I'm not sure, is the drafting policy of teams in this era: they take almost nothing but pitchers for the first dozen rounds of the draft. But even very top hitters do very poorly against these pitchers and, so, I'm not sure the role this draft policy plays.

I'm not sure that drafting almost only pitchers makes any sense when most pitchers end up getting no innings in the minor leagues and, so, they likely fail to develop at all.

(some edits made above for clarity)

Last edited by BPS; 07-07-2008 at 02:59 AM.
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Old 07-07-2008, 11:14 AM   #5
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My theory (still to be proved by anything other than anecdote) is that exhausted pitchers with very low Stuff ratings will actually roll over backwards in mid-game to 255 or whatever the theoretical maximum Stuff rating actually is. Check your Ks in some of the sillier boxscores and see if they actually pick up as the game goes along. If you have both starting pitchers striking out the side in innings 10-12, that would tend to validate my theory. If they're being pulled for pinchhitters, I'm probably wrong.
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Old 07-07-2008, 01:03 PM   #6
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Although I can't speak to swamp's theory, I've read here and there that minor league total modifiers probably need to be adjusted by you apart from the auto-adjusted majors to get meaningful stats out of players who are created with low ratings (ie your minor league players). I don't think the game handles this automatically, as one always hears this problem in other leagues, 1870's or not. The low player ratings bring down the stat level of the league, usually causing dominant pitching, and after year 1 in your case, quite dramatically. Are the strange stats you find true in year 1 for the minors or only after that first year? Your feeder leagues are essentially stable, but I think they're setup by the game like a separate major league rather than like an affiliated minor league.

This is one area of the game that needs looking at.
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Old 07-07-2008, 02:18 PM   #7
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If the strikeouts also go crazy in non-1870s leagues, then that would mean that there is a simpler explanation than my theoretical bug. I've had some weird results involving 1871 and exhausted pitchers, but it could be sample size.
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Old 07-07-2008, 05:36 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swampdragon View Post
Check your Ks in some of the sillier boxscores and see if they actually pick up as the game goes along.
I can do this later today. But why problems exist only in minor leagues (and not ML, COL, and HS) is not clear. The rollover to from 1 to 255 is an interesting idea but it if it happens it seems that it should happen more in lower minors than in upper minors as ratings for players improve as they move up the minor league system which should cause fewer AAA players to rollover to 255 than, say, A players. But, based on BA, it seems the problem hits all the minor leagues about equally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by No Pepper View Post
...I've read here and there that minor league total modifiers probably need to be adjusted by you apart from the auto-adjusted majors to get meaningful stats out of players who are created with low ratings (ie your minor league players). I don't think the game handles this automatically, as one always hears this problem in other leagues, 1870's or not.
It seems, given that you can adjust the stats/modifiers for minor leagues, that Markus intends for minor league stats to be relatively unaffected by the undeveloped ratings of minor league players. Plus the ratings of minor league players in, say, AAA likely didn't change much between 1871 and 1872 although the stats changed dramatically between these two years. This might suggest that something else is involved...but who knows.

I wonder if the routine intended to generate the "correct" stats in various minor leagues has a goof in it. For instance, perhaps some of the data used to adjust stat outcomes in minor leagues accidentially comes from a higher league. That is, the routine that should use the ratings from, say, AAA to adjust AAA stats uses, rather, ratings from ML players to adjust AAA stats.
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Old 07-07-2008, 07:11 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BPS View Post
I can do this later today. But why problems exist only in minor leagues (and not ML, COL, and HS) is not clear. The rollover to from 1 to 255 is an interesting idea but it if it happens it seems that it should happen more in lower minors than in upper minors as ratings for players improve as they move up the minor league system which should cause fewer AAA players to rollover to 255 than, say, A players. But, based on BA, it seems the problem hits all the minor leagues about equally.
If my theory has any validity, the low BA is strictly due to the humongous number of strikeouts, and the BABIP is about where it should be. And in the 1870s even the major leaguers have extremely low stuff ratings. You should get the same results in the majors if you use a one man rotation and the generated schedules, although possibly fictional players have ratings that are a little bit higher than the historical major leaguers did. (All of the 1871 historical major leaguers have stuff ratings between 1 and 3 on a 100 point scale.)
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Old 07-08-2008, 12:06 AM   #10
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This situation is largly the result of the number of games in a minor league season in the 1800's (which has been scheduled for probable adjustment in the next patch) and the strategic modifiers in the game setup screen (the 20 or so on the bottom part of the screen). You need to pay careful attention to those. It also helps an incredible lot if you start your league using other modifiers than the default 1.0000. Several posts have suggestions as to what modifiers you should start 1871 using.
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Old 07-08-2008, 12:56 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swampdragon View Post
My theory (still to be proved by anything other than anecdote) is that exhausted pitchers with very low Stuff ratings will actually roll over backwards in mid-game to 255 or whatever the theoretical maximum Stuff rating actually is. Check your Ks in some of the sillier boxscores and see if they actually pick up as the game goes along. If you have both starting pitchers striking out the side in innings 10-12, that would tend to validate my theory. If they're being pulled for pinchhitters, I'm probably wrong.
In a kinda random sample of 3 pitchers at the A level (in 1874) I find that stuff ratings are in the 30s (out of 250). I also find that the Ks start in the very FIRST inning. I looked at the game log for two games: in the FIRST inning all the outs for both teams were Ks at the very beginning of the season when they should be fresh after vacationing for a couple of months in the Poconos.

This suggests that the cause of the K mania in the minors in the 1870s is not due to tired pitchers whose stuff ratings are right near zero to begin with (and flip down into the 200s as innings go by once they get tired).

At the same time, in the ML the one pitcher I looked at had stuff in the 20s (out of 250) and he stuck out maybe 1 player a game (versus minor league pitchers averaging 15 Ks or more a game) with their 30s stuff.

So while Mr. SwampD's theory at first glance seems plausible, it appears my observations have not been too kind to his theory.
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Old 07-08-2008, 01:06 AM   #12
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It also helps an incredible lot if you start your league using other modifiers than the default 1.0000. Several posts have suggestions as to what modifiers you should start 1871 using.
I'd prefer to not have to engage in trial-and-error for all my minor leagues every year when I'm guessing that Markus thought all you'd have to do is use the automatic stats/modifiers.

I'm guessing a bug exists somewhere...but perhaps some of us, say folks who live in Redmond, are used to software having lots of unfixed bugs for years. ;>

But, be that as it may...I've not been able to find the suggestions for minor league stat adjustments mentioned above.
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Old 07-08-2008, 02:08 AM   #13
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For the 1875 season I used 0.100 modifier for Ks in AAA and left everything else in all leagues automatically set.

AAA K's per game leader fell to about 3 K's per 9 innings. In A ball, the leader had 18 Ks per 9 innings. In the ML the leader had about 2 Ks per 9 innings.

So even with the extreme modifier of 0.100, AAA pitchers still had more Ks than seen at the ML level.
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Old 07-08-2008, 06:39 PM   #14
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These settings work pretty well. Change the modifiers from 1 to these numbers starting from the top of the league totals
Hits=.939 2b=.639, 3b = .986, hr .513, bb .302, hbp .196, k .148, err 6.54, dp 1.461, sp end 1.339, rp = 1, gb% .865, wp .764, balks .063, pb 11.604, sac fly .401, sac bunt .253, sba .783, sb% .819

Also you need to check these yearly as the SP endurance modifier can grow exponentially. I have seen it attain 154,000 and some. Keep it under 2.0 and all will work out.

Also around 1900 the league wide minor league batting averages drop to around .200 so watch for that and adjust as necessary.

Last edited by Spritze; 07-08-2008 at 06:41 PM.
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