Historical Random Debut

[Jerry Helper]

I know several of us are very interested to see if this feature is bug free come next week. Who else is going to be running a league right away to check? Maybe we can all post our results in this thread

[silvam14]

Originally Posted by Jerry Helper

I know several of us are very interested to see if this feature is bug free come next week. Who else is going to be running a league right away to check? Maybe we can all post our results in this thread

I wanted to try this for the first time. What exactly are some bugs that are present that might give me pause?


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[Jerry Helper]

Originally Posted by silvam14

I wanted to try this for the first time. What exactly are some bugs that are present that might give me pause?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The 17 and 18 versions seem to feature a lot of super seasons for stars. At least that's what I've seen and what i've heard from some other guys. Most numbers will look ok, but guys who lead the league will lead the league by a lot. I did a ten year sim where I ended up with something like 20 different 50 home run seasons, 7 60 home run seasons, and 3 70+ home run seasons. To the point where the high numbers are too whacky to be considered realistic.

I know at least a couple people have had similar issues. But I'm hopeful that this won't be the case for 19!

[JaBurns]

The above is correct, league averages appear to be in the normal range but individual players seem to have “once in a decade, lifetime, whatever...” seasons far too often, David Watts has posted many examples in the Bugs Report forum in 18.http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=284430

[Reed]

IÂ’ll be checking neutralized stats. In 18 when I started a league many OF like Sam Crawford, Ty Cobb, etc., were showing up as 1st basemem. I want to make sure thatÂ’s been corrected.

[Chico Guilbault]

I recently added random debut to my fictional league, just to spice things up. The first year I didn't have nearly enough players in the draft and had to manually create fictional players to complete it. I am wondering if anyone knows if this is how it's supposed to work or if maybe I did something wrong. It could be that it just isn't meant to work with an existing fictional league I suppose.

[JaBurns]

I am going to start a RD in 1901 with stats and strategy frozen to an as yet undetermined year but probably between 1975-1985. Development engine on, Real Stats with a five year recalc. Reserve rosters to be set at 10, if possible, 15 if this has not been changed in 19. I will not have historical minors. I am going to use a variation of TigerFan’s setup that I have experimenting with in 18. Once the free agent pool grows I will setup an unaffiliated AAA league with an option for the players to be purchased by the Majors. Financials will progress with the league starting in 1901. Expansion turned on for MLB while expansion and a second league in AAA will occur when the FA pool allows for additional teams/leagues.

I can report here if people want; problems I have seen in 18 is the infiltration of fictional players that I have not yet figured out a good way to filter out of the draft or league.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Chico Guilbault

I recently added random debut to my fictional league, just to spice things up. The first year I didn't have nearly enough players in the draft and had to manually create fictional players to complete it. I am wondering if anyone knows if this is how it's supposed to work or if maybe I did something wrong. It could be that it just isn't meant to work with an existing fictional league I suppose.

How many rounds was your draft supposed to be? I'm not sure how it works with an existing fictional league, because I've only ever done historical leagues with it.

You start off a historical random debut with 44 players for every major league team in your league. So, I set the Inaugural Draft to 44 rounds.

As for the amount of players, maybe you missed a setting or two. That's quite possible. There are quite a lot of them, and you do have to get every one just so.

Because of the amount of players that teams debut with in historical random debuts, I find that a five round draft is plenty (with enough players for five rounds, six in seasons when expansion is coming because the new expansion teams get a seat at the draft table in the draft before their inaugural seasons). Let me know if you have any other questions CG.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by JaBurns

I am going to start a RD in 1901 with stats and strategy frozen to an as yet undetermined year but probably between 1975-1985. Development engine on, Real Stats with a five year recalc. Reserve rosters to be set at 10, if possible, 15 if this has not been changed in 19. I will not have historical minors. I am going to use a variation of TigerFan’s setup that I have experimenting with in 18. Once the free agent pool grows I will setup an unaffiliated AAA league with an option for the players to be purchased by the Majors. Financials will progress with the league starting in 1901. Expansion turned on for MLB while expansion and a second league in AAA will occur when the FA pool allows for additional teams/leagues.

I can report here if people want; problems I have seen in 18 is the infiltration of fictional players that I have not yet figured out a good way to filter out of the draft or league.

I have yet to see this infiltration of fictional players you're talking about in 18. I think we've been over this before though, and you've told me you have both the "Enable Amateur Draft" and "Disable automatic Creation of Free Agents and Fictional Draft Class" boxes checked. If that's the case, I have no idea what's going on with your game. Hopefully it doesn't carry over to OOTP19. *Fingers Crossed*

Also, are you going five year double weighted recalc, or just five year recalc?

[JaBurns]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

I have yet to see this infiltration of fictional players you're talking about in 18. I think we've been over this before though, and you've told me you have both the "Enable Amateur Draft" and "Disable automatic Creation of Free Agents and Fictional Draft Class" boxes checked. If that's the case, I have no idea what's going on with your game. Hopefully it doesn't carry over to OOTP19. *Fingers Crossed*

Also, are you going five year double weighted recalc, or just five year recalc?

Double weighted recalc, I may adjust the percentage weights. What do you use for weight distribution? I know it is posted but I am too lazy to find it...But you know me I can change my mind 48 times in 48 hours. I know I will not get the settings correct out of the box but that is the fun I have; can you make a template of a template? I am getting faster and better at setting up RD leagues and imagine I will get more practice in 19...

[Reed]

Please correct me if IÂ’m wrong but for random debut so many things go into determining the number of outliers. For example playing with or without the DH, weakening/adjusting hitters/pitchers, the total number of players in your current season, etc.. For example, if you play with the DH, since his offensive stats will be higher than the pitcher they replace, the game engine will have to dampen the offensive stats of the other 8 players to come up with the same league wide stats. Your setting for weaken and adjust, and the number of players in your current season will also have a direct effect on outliers. The more players in your league then better players will be in the starting lineup and again the game engine will dampen their overall ratings to get the same league stats. I think using 3 year or 5 year stats is another way to dampen the indivual players outlier seasons which decreases the chances of them having an outlier season in OOTP, for example Maris best season using 5 year recalc based on real stats might be 35 or so instead of 60 so his chances of hitting 60+ in OOTP with 5 year recalc would be almost zero. I think Action Jackson does have a good setup and the point is the setup is critical for your results. Using neutralized stats might have an effect and maybe there is a difference in the game engine between 16 and 18, if so hopefully 19 will be better.

Random debut could have itÂ’s own manual talking about settings.

[sprague]

Originally Posted by Jerry Helper

The 17 and 18 versions seem to feature a lot of super seasons for stars. At least that's what I've seen and what i've heard from some other guys. Most numbers will look ok, but guys who lead the league will lead the league by a lot. I did a ten year sim where I ended up with something like 20 different 50 home run seasons, 7 60 home run seasons, and 3 70+ home run seasons. To the point where the high numbers are too whacky to be considered realistic.

I know at least a couple people have had similar issues. But I'm hopeful that this won't be the case for 19!

Hey Jerry
Here is the real reason the stats don’t work In Random debut
I think the big issue is that it uses real stats. Thus as players come from all through history, if you have a bunch of pre 1940 guys in your league and mostly deadball, they will be rating like 8 hr.
Then you sprinkle in a few post 40 guys with 30-40 real homers, and the way the game calculates stats, it has to find more home runs than the league has and of course awards them to the high guys, hence a 35 hr guy hits 55 in random debut because where else are those hr going to go?
It’s not broken just does not fit with the league engine.
Neautralized stats won’t work either. They don’t alter dead ball hr or k much so even those will be way off. You need instead a stats folder of direct translated stats, where 4 hr in 1904 is 30 hr today.
Really for proper random debut should have something like the Davenport translations. While not 100% they are the closest available for what random debut requires

[JaBurns]

I am still going to try with Real Stats rather than Neutralized Stats I have looked at the Davenports translations but I get confused trying to wrap my head around what I would have to do to use the translated stats.

I am going to set my TCR to ~125 and then in my mind I can justify some of the outliers. But if the "super season(s)" begin to appear in 19 it will be back to the drawing board for me, but I am hoping not........

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by JaBurns

Double weighted recalc, I may adjust the percentage weights. What do you use for weight distribution? I know it is posted but I am too lazy to find it...But you know me I can change my mind 48 times in 48 hours. I know I will not get the settings correct out of the box but that is the fun I have; can you make a template of a template? I am getting faster and better at setting up RD leagues and imagine I will get more practice in 19...

I believe the weight distribution is static. In other words, with five year, double weighted, and the player's season being 1985, 1983 would be worth 1/6, 1984 would be worth 1/6, 1985 would be worth 1/3, 1986 would be worth 1/6, and 1987 would be worth 1/6. If that makes any sense. At least all the fractions add up to one, so my math isn't off.

[Chico Guilbault]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

How many rounds was your draft supposed to be? I'm not sure how it works with an existing fictional league, because I've only ever done historical leagues with it.

You start off a historical random debut with 44 players for every major league team in your league. So, I set the Inaugural Draft to 44 rounds.

As for the amount of players, maybe you missed a setting or two. That's quite possible. There are quite a lot of them, and you do have to get every one just so.

Because of the amount of players that teams debut with in historical random debuts, I find that a five round draft is plenty (with enough players for five rounds, six in seasons when expansion is coming because the new expansion teams get a seat at the draft table in the draft before their inaugural seasons). Let me know if you have any other questions CG.

It's a ten round draft, but complicated by the fact that I have promotion/relegation set up for 4 leagues. The draft is shared by all 4 leagues and I think the game only generated players for 10 rounds of one league.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by sprague

Hey Jerry
Here is the real reason the stats don’t work In Random debut
I think the big issue is that it uses real stats. Thus as players come from all through history, if you have a bunch of pre 1940 guys in your league and mostly deadball, they will be rating like 8 hr.
Then you sprinkle in a few post 40 guys with 30-40 real homers, and the way the game calculates stats, it has to find more home runs than the league has and of course awards them to the high guys, hence a 35 hr guy hits 55 in random debut because where else are those hr going to go?
It’s not broken just does not fit with the league engine.
Neautralized stats won’t work either. They don’t alter dead ball hr or k much so even those will be way off. You need instead a stats folder of direct translated stats, where 4 hr in 1904 is 30 hr today.
Really for proper random debut should have something like the Davenport translations. While not 100% they are the closest available for what random debut requires

Not true with Neutralized Stats. Shoeless Joe Jackson and Home Run Baker would like a word. These are from an OOTP16 historical random debut where the stats output is always 1984. Not sure about Real Stats because I don't have extensive history with them.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by silvam14

I wanted to try this for the first time. What exactly are some bugs that are present that might give me pause?


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Come join the Historical Random Debut Geek Club. This is just one thread from the OOTP18 - Historical Simulations section of the forum. There are about 3 or 4 others down there. Come hang out with us. We'd be honoured to have such a modding legend in our presence.

[DCG12]

Originally Posted by sprague

Hey Jerry
Here is the real reason the stats don’t work In Random debut
I think the big issue is that it uses real stats. Thus as players come from all through history, if you have a bunch of pre 1940 guys in your league and mostly deadball, they will be rating like 8 hr.
Then you sprinkle in a few post 40 guys with 30-40 real homers, and the way the game calculates stats, it has to find more home runs than the league has and of course awards them to the high guys, hence a 35 hr guy hits 55 in random debut because where else are those hr going to go?
It’s not broken just does not fit with the league engine.
Neautralized stats won’t work either. They don’t alter dead ball hr or k much so even those will be way off. You need instead a stats folder of direct translated stats, where 4 hr in 1904 is 30 hr today.
Really for proper random debut should have something like the Davenport translations. While not 100% they are the closest available for what random debut requires

I don't believe this is correct. Markus explained in a beta forum post (hence I can't link it) from a couple years ago that the game looks at how the player relates to the rest of the league in his real life year. The example he uses is Hank Aaron in his 32 y.o. season (1966). He hit 44 hr's and the league avg for 602 ab's was 17 hr. Therefore he was 3X better than avg. So whatever season you apply to your game that corresponds to Aaron's 32 y. o. season he will be 3X better then league avg. Now if you have a deadball player who hit 8 hr in an environment where the league avg was 3 he will get a power rating that is just under 3X better then league avg.

I believe the problem can come in if you have a lot of poor power hitters in a high hr environment like the steroid years. Then the few power hitters get a boost.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by Jerry Helper

The 17 and 18 versions seem to feature a lot of super seasons for stars. At least that's what I've seen and what i've heard from some other guys. Most numbers will look ok, but guys who lead the league will lead the league by a lot. I did a ten year sim where I ended up with something like 20 different 50 home run seasons, 7 60 home run seasons, and 3 70+ home run seasons. To the point where the high numbers are too whacky to be considered realistic.

I know at least a couple people have had similar issues. But I'm hopeful that this won't be the case for 19!

That's not a bug, that's simply the way it works. Player stats are simply the result of individual ratings and the competition. Individual ratings are normalized to a neutral era (which is pretty simple mathematically), so the competition is the culprit here, and since it is random, funny things may happen at times. It's not unrealistic at all.

[silvam14]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

That's not a bug, that's simply the way it works. Player stats are simply the result of individual ratings and the competition. Individual ratings are normalized to a neutral era (which is pretty simple mathematically), so the competition is the culprit here, and since it is random, funny things may happen at times. It's not unrealistic at all.

That’s kind of what I’m thinking. If you are playing a game where Derek Jeter is facing Cy Young, how realistic can you expect things?


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