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OOTP 15 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 07-29-2014, 04:35 PM   #1
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OOTP HOF using RL Model (v. 15) for Random Debut

I set down OOTP for a while. I picked up the latest version at the All Star break and have been playing with the new version in the context of setting up a league similar in structure to those that I wrote about in the forums for the previous versions.


I started the current league in 2003 and will have the inaugural HOF class in 2039. I was hoping to time this posting with the RL induction ceremony this past Sunday, but I am only in 2033 now.


Version 15 has no alterations that change how I go about this project. This is more good than bad, for sure. While I would have liked to have found Ink and HOFs/m numbers tabulated in this version, they are not. However, nothing was changed to make the manual data grab more difficult. No change is better than a bad change, as far as I am concerned.


I am interested to see how the changes in the game affect the no name players who became things of legend in the previous leagues. So far, those guys are still producing, and there will be the "unfamiliar familiars" returning to the HOF in this run through.


The basic structure of this league is the same as those I have done previously. More detail on this can be found in the ver 14 and 13 historical forums.


This league I am using 1 year recalc with development on. Injuries are set at Very High and position fatigue is at at None. These and other game option settings were arrived at by a weighted random number determination.


Notables who entered the initial draft pool at the age of 35+ include:


Satchel Paige
Jim H O'Rourke
Manny Mota
Tony Taylor
Phil Cavarretta
Rogers Hornsby
Bob Ewing
John Candelaria
Roger Connor
Willie Davis
Deacon McGuire
Red Faber
Carl Furillo
Jason Giambi
Sal Maglie
Jim Palmer
Pee Wee Reese
Babe Ruth
Taffy Wright
Donn Clendenon
Al Dark
Nap Lajoie
Jackie Robinson
Deacon White


The RL Inductions of 2014 are being factored into the method of selecting players for this HOF. The impact is numerically slight, but the previous exercises have demonstrated that a razor thin margin is sometimes the difference. The chances for a pitcher to enter have slightly increased (thanks to 2 pitchers entering out of 3 players), while the value of pitching points has slightly decreased (thanks to Maddux having such high totals in all).


I turned on league evolution after the 2014 season. Columbus and Jacksonville have added teams to make the league total 32. I am running my contraction algorithm, but no contraction has taken place, yet.


No changes to offensive production have occurred due to league evolution, yet.


In keeping with my previous successes, I was fired without completing one season as Astros GM. Though I take comfort in that it does look like I did draft a HOFer, in the one year I made selections, who is not a RL HOFer. I will not be running a team until 2075.


In the next day or two, I hope to have the inaugural class enshrined.

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David Watts (07-29-2014)
Old 07-29-2014, 05:32 PM   #2
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Glad you're back. I look forward to reading this thread.
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Old 07-30-2014, 06:40 AM   #3
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Three Timers

The following are those players who have made the HOF in each of my previous three documented run throughs:


Al Rosen (retired; possible HOFer)

Charlie J Ferguson

Duke Snider * (active; prob HOFer)
Ed Walsh* (retired; not in HOF)
Eddie Collins Sr*
Gavvy Cravath
George Sisler *
Hal Newhouser*

Jim Wynn (retired; possible HOFer)
Johnny Mize *
Ken Griffey Jr (active; 4 yrs service)
Larry Doyle

Matt Kilroy
Mickey Mantle * (retired; future HOF)
Nap Lajoie * (retired; not in HOF)
Pablo Sandoval
Pedro J Martinez (active; 6 yrs)
Pete Rose Sr
Sandy Koufax *

Shoeless Joe Jackson

Tim Keefe *
Walter Johnson *

Willie Mays*



Asterisk denotes RL HOF.


I will update this post after each season.
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Old 07-30-2014, 07:27 AM   #4
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Pre HOF Activity

Two players have hit 700 career HR. Two players have hit 70 HR in a season. No one has done both.


Ozzie Guillen had a 72 game hit streak while batting .337 for the year. Though he did not suffer a CEI, injuries shortened his career and he retired with only 9 ys 72 days of service. He missed two weeks with an injury during the streak.


Ewell Blackwell had one of the best/worst days ever. He pitched 10 innings of no hit ball before his team got him a run in the 11th inning. He retired the first batter, then a man reached via error. Blackwell got the next batter. Were it not for the error, he would have had an 11 inning no hit shutout. Instead, he surrendered a double and left with men at second and third. He was pulled for a relief pitcher who gave up the game winning hit on the first pitch he threw.


Sal Bando did something horrible. It is unknown if he fixed a game, took steroids, fixed a game with steroids, or gave a bad interview to Sports Illustrated. Whatever it was he got banned for life. He got unpersoned. His entire history was erased. Some might speculate that he was the victim of computer operator error, but no one is admitting to that, here.


Bando was a computer selection for the HOF based on his VORP (800+). He had 392 HR and may have eventually made it into the HOF. He will not be enshrined.
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Old 07-31-2014, 09:38 AM   #5
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Class of 2039

The newly remodeled converted tractor shed near Dyersville, Iowa opens its doors, today. Three hitters comprise the Inaugural Class.


To veteran Shed watchers, the class is a pleasing mix of old favorites and new blood.


Differing from previous HOF threads, each player will receive his own entry post.
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Old 07-31-2014, 10:27 AM   #6
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1B - Rod Carew

The career hits leader and the player with highest career batting average gives the first speech at the first ceremony for the first OOTP15 Hall of Fame.


Carew was the 10th player chosen in the 2005 draft, taken by the Atlanta Braves.


In his Rookie of the Year season of 2006, Carew played in 158 games and collected a league best 230 hits, scoring a league high 130 runs. His .363 batting average was third best, but he would take the batting crown in each of the next four seasons.


Carew collected 200 hits in each of his first 8 seasons. He would reach that mark a total of 10 times in his career. He has the top 3 hit totals for a season in league history.


Many players have chased .400. Rod Carew is the only player who caught it.


In 2010, Carew won his 4th batting title by hitting .411 and collecting what stands as a record 264 hits. He also 30 HR (184 career HR), stroked a league best 57 doubles, scored a league high 139 runs, and collected a league best 134 RBI, all of which are career highs. He won the Barry Bonds Best Basher Award, Brought to you by Balko (commonly referred to as the MVP) for this output.


He played in all 162 games. He would do so each of the next three seasons.


In 2011, he signed a one year extension with the Braves on June 7th. He went 5 for 6 that day. He would lead the Braves to their first World Series title that season.


In the winter of 2013, he signed a two year deal with the Tigers. In 2014 he led them to their first WS win in franchise history. In 2016, he brought a second title to Detroit.




Rod Carew finished his career with a .3399 career batting average. No player is within 10 points of that figure.


His 3374 career hits are more than 150 ahead of the next closest career total. No active player threatens this mark.


Rod Carew is the only player to hit 100 career triples. He retired with exactly 100 career triples.


He holds the record for most career singles with 2483, as well as singles in a season, with 195.


His career OBP of .399 ranks him 8th at the time of his induction. He scored 1603 career runs (6th), hit 607 doubles (4th), drove in 1357 runs (27th). He also carries a .477 career slg%.


In 2016 he played in 110 games. He walked 55 times while striking out only 53 times. In what is a very high strikeout environment, this is an amazing footnote to a HOF career. He retired following the 2027 season.

A 7 time All Star, Rod Carew enters the HOF at the age of 53 with a 162 game average of 211 hits.

Black Ink: 67
Gray Ink: 151
HOFm: 258.7
HOFs: 60

Gorilla Composite: 6.5
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Old 07-31-2014, 11:55 AM   #7
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1B- Paul Goldschmidt

The career Home Run king is properly enshrined in the converted tractor shed.


Paul Goldschmidt was taken in the third round of the 2003 Inaugural Draft by the Chicago Cubs.


By the time he retired 22 years later, his 734 HR, 1909 runs scored, 2145 RBI, and 5933 Total Bases were all league bests that remain unsurpassed 14 years later.


A 3 time MVP, Goldschmidt won 2 Gold Gloves at 1B and appeared in 8 All Star games.


In 2004 he hit a career best and league high 66 HR and drove in a league best 169 runs while posting a slash line of 336/420/719 (npa OPS+ 198) to win his first Barry Bonds Award. More astoundingly, he led the Cubs to WS victory.


In 2006, he almost pulled off the amazing feat, again. Winning the MVP with Triple Crown numbers of .394/52/149 while bringing Wrigleyville another pennant, but falling to the Yankees in the Classic. His OBP of .475 coupled with a .796 slg gave him a npa OPS+ of 224. He drew 81 walks while striking out just 78 times. He also stole a career high 16 bases....in 16 attempts.


Twice in his career he hit for the cycle.


Despite being injured for 4 weeks, or more, 13 times in his career, Goldschmidt is one of 3 players to reach the 3000 hit plateau, finishing with 3012 (3rd). He hit 589 doubles (5th), 65 triples(t-13th), and walked 1587 times (2nd).


He hit 30+ HR in 14 seasons, driving in 100+ in each of his first 9 seasons, and in 13 seasons overall.


His finished with a career slash line of 291/384/573 (95th/25th/14th).


Paul Goldschmidt is the oldest member of the Class of 2039, entering at the age of 59.


Black Ink: 47
Gray Ink: 204
HOFm: 256.6
HOFs: 65


Gorilla Composite: 6.2

ADD: Goldschmidt's SLG and OPS from 2006 stand as single season league records.
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Old 07-31-2014, 06:45 PM   #8
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3B - Eddie Mathews

My browser froze while making this post...grrr....truncated redo:


Mathews may be the best of the three some in the first induction class.


Chosen 4th, but not signed, by Milwaukee in the 2010 draft, Mathews went to the Tigers as the second pick in 2012. He won Rookie of the Year in 2012 by leading the league with 44 HR in only 123 games. Milwaukee fan can take comfort that he didn't leave them for Atlanta.


A 4 time MVP, he led the league in HR 6 times, and hit 40+ HR 9 times in his career.


He won the WS with the Tigers in 2014 and 2016, along with classmate Carew.


On Sept 21, 2021, he collected his 500th HR while going 6 for 6 at the plate.


In 2024 he won his third WS, this time with Tampa.


Mathews is #1 in both career WAR and VORP. Paul Goldschmidt is second in VORP and 4th in WAR. Carew is 10th in VORP and 12th in WAR.


Mathews ranks 6th on the career hit list, 2nd in HR, RBI and R, 1 spot behind Rod Carew for 5th place in doubles, and tied for 53rd in triples.


He has a career slash line of 295/397/581 (70th/9th/9th).


A 13 time All Star, Mathews won 4 GG at 3B. He enters the HOF at the age of 47.


Gray Ink: 78
Black Ink: 184
HOFm: 312.3
HOFs: 79


Gorilla Composite: 7.9
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Old 07-31-2014, 10:16 PM   #9
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Thoughts

In case there is a first timer reading:


The Gorilla Composite is a metric I derived that measures the relative strength of a player's career to all others in the history of the game. The average HOF Gorilla Composite is a 4.0.


The GC posted on the players inducted here is in relation to the Real Life Hall of Fame. Once this league is complete, I will recalculate the scores based on the HOF population here.


I will sometimes comment on a player's RL career and whether or not it is Hall worthy, based on the algorithm in place, here.


Of the 2014 inductees, Greg Maddux is the only player that would have entered on the First Ballot standard that is in place, here. Thomas and Glavine are certainly Hall worthy, but I would have anticipated them taking longer than one year to get in.


I think the writers factored in that no one was elected last year, and with the withholding of votes from known/suspected juicers, many abstentions from the 2013 ballot became votes for Glavine and Thomas, this year, in order to make up for the 2013 result.


Greg Maddux has a 6.6 Gorilla Composite, which is comparable to the Inaugural Class, here.


Tom Glavine has a 3.8, which is certainly a solid HOF score, but not one typical of a First Ballot inductee.


Frank Thomas has a 4.6, which is above average, but still not what we typically get from a player entering on his first ballot. Thomas ranks 43rd out of 146 HOF batters. He ranks just behind George Sisler and just ahead of Billy Hamilton.


Sisler was elected the fourth year he was on the ballot.


Hamilton was inducted by the Vet Committee 60 years after he retired.


Glavine ranks 33 out of 66 pitchers, He is just ahead of Fergie Jenkins and just behind Early Wynn.


Jenkins was elected on his third ballot, Wynn on his fourth.


Greg Maddux ranks 7th on the list. He is one spot behind Lefty Grove and one spot ahead of Nolan Ryan.


Ryan was a first balloter. How Lefty Grove was not inducted long before he was in 1960 is completely mindless, imo.


In any case, the illustration is made. Maddux was a no brainer first balloter. Had the voters not decided to withhold votes from Clemens and Bonds and others, I do not think you would have seen Glavine and Thomas get in the HOF in 2014.
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