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iOOTP - General Discussions Talk about iOOTP Baseball, the baseball management simulation for iPhone/iPod/iPad |
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08-16-2011, 02:52 PM | #1 |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: East Tennessee
Posts: 129
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batters right after a homer
Maybe I am just seeing things, but. . .
When a pitcher gives up a home run, maybe only when it is a multiple RBI situation, he seems to bear down on the next batter or maybe two and strike them out more often that I'd expect. I've played out (batter by batter) over a hundred games now and that is one trend that I think is real, though, before you ask, I haven't actually measured it. That said, is there any evidence that such a trend is present in real world baseball? Is this a feature (or bug) of OOTP in general, or iOOTP in particular? |
08-16-2011, 05:27 PM | #2 |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 198
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I will pay attention to that as I play and see if I notice a similar pattern.
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08-16-2011, 07:33 PM | #3 |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 814
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I have seen that. Maybe gives up a blast or even a bases clearing double and then strikes out the next two batters to end an inning. I have also seen it the opposite way where the first two batters will strike out and then a barrage of hits all over the place. I think it is random though. No correlation to a bug.
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08-18-2011, 11:37 AM | #4 |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: East Tennessee
Posts: 129
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Because I am crazy and obsessive like this, I did a little study to see if *in actual Major League Baseball* there is anything like this going on.
To recap, the situation I'm interested in is this: a pitcher gives up a home run to batter A, and the manager does NOT replace him. What happens to batter B who is the next one up? Is the pitcher able to "bear down" and change the outcome of the next plate appearance significantly? If you're a stats guy in general, you see that this is a test of whether the two batters are batting independently. . .are the two plate appearances independent of each other, or is the pitcher able to change the odds? To investigate, I used Retrosheet data (Retrosheet Home Page) and checked this situation over 648 games (half AL, half NL) selected at random from the 2000 season. There were 818 times where this situation came up in those games. I checked the outcome of the B batters and found that the HR rate was identical to the second decimal place (about 3.0 %), the strikeout rate was about 1% lower (16.5% overall vs 15.4% for batter Bs), and the walk rate was also about 1% lower (9.6% overall vs 8.4% for batter Bs). It is tempting to think that the K and BB rate reductions for batter Bs is "real" or "actual baseball knowledge" but don't be fooled. The rates would have to change MUCH more than that to suggest (or prove statistically) that batter B is in a different situation and that the pitcher is able to change the outcome all by himself. So, iOOTP programmers, as long as you are coding the game so that there is no lingering effect on the pitcher of surrendering a HR to a given batter, we're good. Each plate appearance should be independent of all the others. I'm sure you knew that, but it is good to check on these things every now and then. |
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