Bad teammate or bad luck?

[Mudster]

With 14 games to go and having a firm lead on my diamond division in 2031, I decided to bring in a ringer for the playoffs in Heinie Zimmerman, a 98 rated 3rd baseman who should knock the crap out of the ball. I went on to lose those last 14 games, lose the division by a couple games, then get blasted in the wildcard round. Chalking it up to bad luck, I figured next season will prove better....I started 2-9. I deactivated him and sold him to the next unexpecting soul. I put Machado, an obvious statistical downgrade in at 3rd and have now gone 10-5 in my last 15. I know it's a small sample size, but how big of a dick must Heinie be in the clubhouse and dugout to make a strong playoff team go 2-24?

[Kushiel]

Maybe you were a pretender, not a contender.

[stl jason]

I had that with a closer (Wilcy Moore) on my pre-ww2 team.... brought him in hoping he'd help stabilize the later innings and instead he ended up going something like 4-22 in less than 2 seasons, so he was sent back to the AH pretty quick

I'm sure he does just fine with some teams, but I wasn't willing to drag that out any longer

[uschi_baerchen]

Originally Posted by Mudster

With 14 games to go and having a firm lead on my diamond division in 2031, I decided to bring in a ringer for the playoffs in Heinie Zimmerman, a 98 rated 3rd baseman who should knock the crap out of the ball. I went on to lose those last 14 games, lose the division by a couple games, then get blasted in the wildcard round. Chalking it up to bad luck, I figured next season will prove better....I started 2-9. I deactivated him and sold him to the next unexpecting soul. I put Machado, an obvious statistical downgrade in at 3rd and have now gone 10-5 in my last 15. I know it's a small sample size, but how big of a dick must Heinie be in the clubhouse and dugout to make a strong playoff team go 2-24?

You said it: small sample size. The correct sample size is 3000 at bats. And Heinie is way better than Manny if EYE/POWER/CONTACT have any meaning. Nevertheless good luck to you with manny

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by uschi_baerchen

You said it: small sample size. The correct sample size is 3000 at bats. And Heinie is way better than Manny if EYE/POWER/CONTACT have any meaning. Nevertheless good luck to you with manny

Heine has 2877 PAs for my team and has been a very big disappointment. I haven't been that long at the Perfect level, but my players have just over 1000 PAs at Perfect. So far at Perfect level, Heine (86/83/36) has been outhit by guys like Garry Maddox (77/23/25), Ray Fosse (70/68/38), and Cleon Jones (85/55/53). The only person he has out hit so far (at Perfect) is Ozzie Smith, and not by much (83 OPS+ to 80).

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Heine has 2877 PAs for my team and has been a very big disappointment. I haven't been that long at the Perfect level, but my players have just over 1000 PAs at Perfect. So far at Perfect level, Heine (86/83/36) has been outhit by guys like Garry Maddox (77/23/25), Ray Fosse (70/68/38), and Cleon Jones (85/55/53). The only person he has out hit so far (at Perfect) is Ozzie Smith, and not by much (83 OPS+ to 80).

I wonder if it's because pull hitters get penalized when teams shift a lot. I looked up his card and he is listed as a pull hitter. I remember some other disappointing cards were also pull hitters.

[Mudster]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

I wonder if it's because pull hitters get penalized when teams shift a lot. I looked up his card and he is listed as a pull hitter. I remember some other disappointing cards were also pull hitters.

That's an interesting point....does the AI play a shift against pull hitters? I've found most of my other pull hitters are underperforming as well. Altuve trends above .300, but others seem to struggle. Any other thoughts on this?

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

I wonder if it's because pull hitters get penalized when teams shift a lot. I looked up his card and he is listed as a pull hitter. I remember some other disappointing cards were also pull hitters.

He's terrible at walking and not striking out. He's at the mercy of the BABIP gods.

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr

He's terrible at walking and not striking out. He's at the mercy of the BABIP gods.

That doesn't explain why they always do worse than expected. It would explain variability of outcomes.

Pull hitters also have much lower BABIPs IRL because they're easier to shift on. I'm just trying to figure out if the pull hitter designation is built into the Contact rating or if they will do worse against managers that have the Frequently use shifts strategy set the maximum (which is the setting I use). Or if the type of hitter is just cosmetic like fastball velocity seems to be.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

I wonder if it's because pull hitters get penalized when teams shift a lot. I looked up his card and he is listed as a pull hitter. I remember some other disappointing cards were also pull hitters.

I'll have to see if I can find a correlation to the type of hitter (Pull/Spray using league wide stats), but it hasn't made much of a difference on a small scale (my team) as my spray hitter (Cy Seymour) has been a bigger disappointment than Zimmerman, and Rod Carew (Pull) has been the only guy to hit consistently better than I expected at Perfect.

Though I did another study trying to find out performance and how it correlates to Avoid K (I didn't find anything significant to indicate low Avoid Ks would struggle more than High Avoid Ks), I may revisit that as well.

EDIT - Should mention that when I say they perform at or below expectations, that is considering that they are playing at a high level of competition but are performing higher or lower based on ratings when compared to each other (ie - Hitting worse than someone with lower ratings or better than someone with better ratings at the same level with equal competition).

[<Pion>]

I may be missing it, but I didn't see the hitter type (Spray/Pull) as an option in sortable stats...

[chazzycat]

I don't think you are missing anything. I've tried to export the same data to prove my hunch along the same lines (all my "extreme pull" guys always struggle to hit for AVG). But for now it's still just a hunch with no data to back it up.

Would make perfect sense though. Presumably most of the managers in the higher levels are aware of basic sabre concepts like using the shift heavily. And shifts are pretty new in MLB, so a lot of historical cards with pull tendencies managed to hit for good AVG during their era because no one was shifting. But they would have suffered tremendously from the shift if they played today's game.

[Abnerdoubleday]

Originally Posted by uschi_baerchen

You said it: small sample size. The correct sample size is 3000 at bats.

Are you suggesting waiting 5 or 6 seasons before deciding if a player is a stiff?

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

I may be missing it, but I didn't see the hitter type (Spray/Pull) as an option in sortable stats...

That's what makes it so difficult.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Abnerdoubleday

Are you suggesting waiting 5 or 6 seasons before deciding if a player is a stiff?

That's a bit extreme IMO...many stats are worthwhile in much smaller samples.

If you really want to understand sample sizes in baseball, this is a really good resource: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

It's a lot to digest. But if you have some time to fall through the rabbit hole, it can be enlightening

[KleineBiere]

Heinie's BABIP is OK. But too many strikeouts and no walks




Some of the top guys are pull hitters


BABIP perfect leagues

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by KleineBiere

Heinie's BABIP is OK. But too many strikeouts and no walks




Some of the top guys are pull hitters


BABIP perfect leagues

I'm curious how the OPS calculations for pull hitters compare to their actual OPS's. Is there an estimated BABIP formula?

[KleineBiere]

Brouthers, Brett & Sisler have a low K%


Seymour & Lajoie have a high K% with a very high BABIP


Foxx has a very high K%

[Dogberry99]

Does the "Batted Ball Profile" not matter?

[uschi_baerchen]

Originally Posted by Abnerdoubleday

Are you suggesting waiting 5 or 6 seasons before deciding if a player is a stiff?

No, I am saying that:


1.The Performance of a hitter is dictated by CON, POWand EYE (and lightly by GAP),


Corollary: If hitter 1 is better or equal in allfour categories than hitter 2, than hitter 1 is equal or better than hitter 2in hitting performance.


2. In my calculations e.g. Heinie is better thanMaddox by about the same amount than Mike Trout is better than Lorenzo Cain,which is quite a bit. (Under the assumption, that my calculations arerealistic of course)


3. Say you use a suitable metric: how many seasons ofTrout and Cain do you have to compare in order to get an idea, how much betterTrout than Cain is? Answer: about 3000 PA, which translates to about 5 seasons. You mustnot wait for five of your own easons of course, since you get the data of all youropponents by end of a season.


4. IMHO: I would estimate, that Trout (and Heinie forthat matter) are about 3 WAR better than Cain (or Maddox).