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03-22-2019, 11:19 AM | #21 | |
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It depends I can look at video of the players' home runs. Balls hit farther are hit harder, that's simple physics. If one guy is hitting pop ups that fall an inch beyond a short fence in a hitter friend stadium and the other guy is hitting moonshots that would go out of any park, both easily visible to the naked eye, I'll say the latter player is more likely to hit home runs at a higher rate in the future all other variables constant. I really don't need to know the average exit velocities. Granted this is an extreme comparison. I'll grant that knowing the average exit velocity might help when comparing two very similar players and may verify your scouts' observations, but context is everything. I'd also look at his K rate and generally how often he swings and misses. You can't hit a home run if you can't hit the ball. In the case of veteran players with a big sample size, average exit velocity is meaningless. You are what your record says you are.
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"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn. Last edited by Curve Ball Dave; 03-22-2019 at 11:22 AM. |
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03-22-2019, 11:22 AM | #22 | |
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03-22-2019, 11:23 AM | #23 | |
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Are you also watching all the 410 foot line drive outs for those players? |
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03-22-2019, 11:24 AM | #24 |
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Well that wouldn't happen unless they rated the card ridiculously inaccurately. I'm not sure what you're talking about with making up stats.
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03-22-2019, 11:24 AM | #25 | |
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I'm talking real world application of the stat where you do have people who do watch every inning of every game.
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03-22-2019, 11:26 AM | #26 | |
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03-22-2019, 11:27 AM | #27 | |
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How? |
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03-22-2019, 11:27 AM | #28 |
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So you really think OOTP knows what the exit velocity is of a Bobby Higginson home run? No it doesn't. It would simply assign a random velocity for pbp eye candy.
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03-22-2019, 11:27 AM | #29 | |
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If I want to know I can watch the video. Balls that used to be home runs that are warning track outs mean he isn't hitting the ball as hard. That could mean he's injured or simply declining. Knowing the actual velocity just puts a number on my observation.
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03-22-2019, 11:29 AM | #30 |
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03-22-2019, 11:30 AM | #31 | |
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Also, exit velocity has a huge effect on non-home runs as well. Last edited by zrog2000; 03-22-2019 at 11:31 AM. |
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03-22-2019, 11:34 AM | #32 |
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Our minister keeps a hidden stat sheet of the exit velocity of church members.
I really do not see how it would be a useful stat in OOTP, maybe in real life to some extent. What effect does the pitcher speed have on exit velocity? Maybe there should be a stat on that. |
03-22-2019, 11:38 AM | #33 | |
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03-22-2019, 11:41 AM | #34 | |
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Lets' say we have a batter who saw his home rate decline. We can look at his flyouts and strike outs and if both are up that can only mean he's lost bat speed and that's a very bad sign. He can't get around on pitches like he used to so he either flies out or strikes out. If only his strike outs are up that means pitchers have found the hole in his swing or the pitch he can't hit. That can possibly be corrected, we hope. If just his fly outs are up we know he's losing bat speed but can still make contact with the same pitches. In no case we need to know the exit velocity because the fly outs tell us that already.
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"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn. Last edited by Curve Ball Dave; 03-22-2019 at 11:42 AM. |
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03-22-2019, 11:44 AM | #35 | |
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Considering how the rest of his season went he had a rough month. It can happen to anyone. You don't evaluate a player based on a four week stretch anyway.
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03-22-2019, 11:48 AM | #36 | |
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03-22-2019, 11:50 AM | #37 | |
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It will quantify what you're seeing with your own two eyes. It's not telling you what you didn't know, it's just giving it a number. 4 weeks is too small of a sample to draw a conclusion anyway.
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"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn. Last edited by Curve Ball Dave; 03-22-2019 at 11:54 AM. |
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03-22-2019, 11:51 AM | #38 | |
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For the record, JBJ had a historically unlucky month. He was hitting the ball super hard and got nothing to show for it. It was extremely easy to predict that he'd greatly improve because of his statcast data and he did. Also, I have to assume that you watched every one of his at bats that month. What stood out for you? Last edited by zrog2000; 03-22-2019 at 11:55 AM. |
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03-22-2019, 11:52 AM | #39 | |
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Taking this one step further, you are trying to apply this to people in baseball. You're right that managers and players know if a ball was hit hard. Fans don't always know that. And they don't always understand why someone's 0-5 wasn't cause for concern. Hit velocity is another metric. Another way to view the beauty of everything in baseball. Here's a better question than the first one since your answer would be ridiculous anyway (hint: no one watches every inning of every game): If you love baseball so much, why do you want less information about the game than more? |
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03-22-2019, 11:52 AM | #40 |
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My memory probably isn't as perfect as yours is. I don't remember every single at bat for a player over a month. So I rely on actual numbers that do it for you.
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