Are there issues calculating WAR for starting pitchers?

captainbuttercream · 12-05-2018, 03:01 PM

Right now, only 1 of my pitchers is on pace to surpass 2 WAR and it's my 4th best starting pitcher. My rotation has the second best ERA in the league, at 3.49, we are first is hits, runs, strikeouts, and opponent average.

All of my guys are on pace for ~200 innings and ~180+ strikeouts. I have a perfectly neutral ballpark, so it's not like they're in a pitcher's paradise.

An example: Carlos Carrasco has pitched 13 games, 83 innings, has an ERA of 3.25, a WHIP of 1.17, ERA+ of 129 and only 0.7 WAR. That just seems low.

Matt Arnold · 12-05-2018, 03:19 PM

It could be that your league is unusually pitcher-dominated. Pitcher WAR values are calculated based on FIP, so it could also be that your guys are running higher FIPs than ERAs, and so don't get as much credit there.

In the league I'm in, I have a couple starters on pace for almost 4 WAR, and the top arms in the league are on pace for ~7.

One Post Wonder · 12-05-2018, 03:32 PM

I didn't know pitcher WAR was determined by FIP. I wasn't sure other stats, or even OOTP, used FIP much at all.

So my solo strategy of acquiring an underperforming pitcher, sticking him in front of the best defense in baseball for a year, then trying to trade him at a higher value has just been crap all along?

Matt Arnold · 12-05-2018, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by One Post Wonder

I didn't know pitcher WAR was determined by FIP. I wasn't sure other stats, or even OOTP, used FIP much at all.

So my solo strategy of acquiring an underperforming pitcher, sticking him in front of the best defense in baseball for a year, then trying to trade him at a higher value has just been crap all along?

AI Valuation doesn't consider solely FIP when dealing with value, so your strategy might still work

captainbuttercream · 12-05-2018, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

It could be that your league is unusually pitcher-dominated. Pitcher WAR values are calculated based on FIP, so it could also be that your guys are running higher FIPs than ERAs, and so don't get as much credit there.

In the league I'm in, I have a couple starters on pace for almost 4 WAR, and the top arms in the league are on pace for ~7.

Interesting, I didn't know pitcher's WAR used FIP. That probably explains it. Most of their FIPs are pretty high, I guess it helps to have a good defense.

zrog2000 · 12-05-2018, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by captainbuttercream

Interesting, I didn't know pitcher's WAR used FIP. That probably explains it. Most of their FIPs are pretty high, I guess it helps to have a good defense.

fangraphs WAR uses FIP as a base. baseball-reference WAR uses RA9 as a base. Just a tangent to the conversation there.

Matt Arnold · 12-05-2018, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

fangraphs WAR uses FIP as a base. baseball-reference WAR uses RA9 as a base. Just a tangent to the conversation there.

And if you go to the expanded pitching stats 2 on a player page, you can see both WAR and rWAR on there.

12-05-2018, 03:01 PM	#1
captainbuttercream Minors (Double A) Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Indiana Posts: 109	Are there issues calculating WAR for starting pitchers? Right now, only 1 of my pitchers is on pace to surpass 2 WAR and it's my 4th best starting pitcher. My rotation has the second best ERA in the league, at 3.49, we are first is hits, runs, strikeouts, and opponent average. All of my guys are on pace for ~200 innings and ~180+ strikeouts. I have a perfectly neutral ballpark, so it's not like they're in a pitcher's paradise. An example: Carlos Carrasco has pitched 13 games, 83 innings, has an ERA of 3.25, a WHIP of 1.17, ERA+ of 129 and only 0.7 WAR. That just seems low.

12-05-2018, 03:19 PM	#2
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 14,143	It could be that your league is unusually pitcher-dominated. Pitcher WAR values are calculated based on FIP, so it could also be that your guys are running higher FIPs than ERAs, and so don't get as much credit there. In the league I'm in, I have a couple starters on pace for almost 4 WAR, and the top arms in the league are on pace for ~7.

12-05-2018, 03:32 PM	#3
One Post Wonder All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 538	I didn't know pitcher WAR was determined by FIP. I wasn't sure other stats, or even OOTP, used FIP much at all. So my solo strategy of acquiring an underperforming pitcher, sticking him in front of the best defense in baseball for a year, then trying to trade him at a higher value has just been crap all along?