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Old 10-16-2019, 11:22 PM   #1
krownroyal83
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I created my own saber metric

So i'm 20 years into a fictional save and i'm always looking for ways to judge players. Take home runs in a season for example. The record for my league is 36 home runs in 66 games. It got me thinking is that the best home run out put in league history for one season? It sure is the highest number but games played also is a factor. But you can't just take home runs hit and divide by games played to decide who had the best home run season because some years offence in higher and defense is lower so not every year is created equal so i decided to try to run some numbers.

My league started with only 8 teams and a 54 game season but has now increased to 18 teams and a 68 game season so, it makes it hard to compare who had the best season ever in terms of home runs since players are playing more games then other players in the beginning of the fictional league.


Keep in mind ball parks will not play a factor as all ballpark factors are exactly the same. The formula is HR's hit that season divided by that seasons league ERA divided by games played by player. This won't be perfect but i feel like it's solid enough to give some good results.


Here is an example of two players.

Tyreek Lyons hit 36 home runs in 66 games (most HR's in a season)
Guy Dupuis hit 31 home runs in 60 games (6th most HR's in a season)

At first glace it's hard to tell which guy had the best season but when you take their HR's and divided by games played you get this....

Lyons 0.54 home runs per game
Dupuis 0.52 home runs per game

Based on this Lyons has just slightly edged Dupuis. But wait a minute. The year Lyons hit 36 the league ERA was 4.52 and the year Dupuis hit 31 the league ERA was 4.04. So in theory it was harder to hit home runs the year Dupuis hit 31. So factoring this and using my crude formula above.

Lyons hit 36 HR's in 66 game he get's a score of 121
Dupuis hit 31 HR's in 60 games he get's a score of 129

While those numbers don't mean a hell of a lot i believe it shows that given the time period Dupuis had the better season in terms of HR's.

I'll call my new stat assuming it doesn't already exist wHR or Weighted Home Runs

Last edited by krownroyal83; 10-16-2019 at 11:25 PM.
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Old 10-17-2019, 12:19 AM   #2
Curve Ball Dave
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A simpler thing would be to take the average home runs per ab for the league for a season and compare a given player's rate against that average. The problem with your metric is that you don't take the league rate into account. Even if the league ERA was lower one year it does not mean the home rate was lower as well. It could have been higher for all we know, but runs were down because perhaps there were fewer base hits or walks so fewer runs were driven in by a given home run even if more home runs were hit.
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Last edited by Curve Ball Dave; 10-17-2019 at 12:26 AM.
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Old 10-17-2019, 09:51 AM   #3
BIG17EASY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
A simpler thing would be to take the average home runs per ab for the league for a season and compare a given player's rate against that average. The problem with your metric is that you don't take the league rate into account. Even if the league ERA was lower one year it does not mean the home rate was lower as well. It could have been higher for all we know, but runs were down because perhaps there were fewer base hits or walks so fewer runs were driven in by a given home run even if more home runs were hit.
This is correct. League-wide home run rate is the relevant baseline, not ERA. ERA has way too many factors that aren't relevant to home runs. For exampel, one error with two outs in an inning that's followed by four home runs would negate those four home runs from factoring into ERA.
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Old 10-17-2019, 10:24 AM   #4
CurlyKarkovice
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG17EASY View Post
This is correct. League-wide home run rate is the relevant baseline, not ERA. ERA has way too many factors that aren't relevant to home runs. For exampel, one error with two outs in an inning that's followed by four home runs would negate those four home runs from factoring into ERA.
Great point, Earned Runs doesn't tell you anything relevant about HRs hit off of. Too much noise there to just call it a weighted HR stat. Somehow use the league's average of HRs hit per 9 innings pitched could be a better way to go.
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Old 10-17-2019, 12:42 PM   #5
NoOne
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export the stats and get a historical average for all seasons.

then you can create some sort of conversion factor.

hr/9 isn't the only thing you can use. in ootp you can use ratings in a way that will be much better than using historical hr/9 as a method of normalizing the data. their competition will be the biggest factor in any ebb and flow (static LTM assumed, or can't do it well).

as long as you don't change LTMs this will work.. if your LTMs float, this is all a futile endeavour and can only be a very forgiving guesstimate.. in either case, i don't think the precision will be good enough to overcome volatility of the context.. comparing 1 player to another. then, you have to adjsut for career oddities etc etc... it's just a mess. there is a good equation for it, but it can't be used so specifically, except for entertainment purposes.
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Old 10-18-2019, 01:02 AM   #6
itsmb8
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If we're using the league average of home runs per 9 innings, i think percentage over/under would be better than pure number over/under.

For example .2 HR/9 vs .1 HR/9 is a lot different than 1 HR/9 vs .9 HR/9
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:11 AM   #7
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I think a stat that neutralized home runs and re-weighted them on a 0-80 scale to predict how many HRs the player would have hit in an average MLB season (of an average number of at-bats) would be cool. You could call it HR+ or wHR+
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