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Old 03-20-2020, 02:02 PM   #1
AlpineSK
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League Total Modifier Help!

So I'm trying to figure out LTM's. I've been playing the game for 17 years and I've never so much as touched any of them, but this year, individual strikeout totals are unusually high (240, 250, 270 for multiple players) that I'm trying to get them down to a realistic number and it appears that the only way to do that is going to be to make adjustments to the LTM's myself because its not going to be fixed.

Anyway, I've been tinkering with the LTM for strikeouts which started at 1.044. Its now now to .993, and I am still seeing the same results.

Should I be tinkering with the LTM's? Should I be tinkering with the totals? Both? Should I be making adjustments to things like hits to adjust for it?

Any help that anyone can offer would be very helpful. I want to see league leaders in K's at a more realistic 180-190, and I can't figure out how much I have to lower things.
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Old 03-20-2020, 03:58 PM   #2
atlbrave1
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The modifiers are what you want to mess around with. General bit of wisdom - move them more than you think, sim a season and see what happens. Then adjust. There is a lot of trial and error at play. Plus you can start to modify the PCMs. Then your life is over, like mine, and you spend hours tweaking and tweaking to get exactly what you want. You can adjust the totals, but I haven't been able to discern as much impact from those. See images for how I got to my 80s / early 90s totals.
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:10 PM   #3
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If you are starting a new season\game the easiest way is to hit the autocalc button. OOTP will set the modifiers for you. It is one of the best features Markus added to the game several years ago.

It is only available before the season starts. Best time to hit it is on opening day before any games are played. Once a game is played the option goes away until the next season.

Once you do this you will be very close to your target numbers, IE your League Totals. It is then fairly simple to dial things up or down using the LTMs at a percentage change. Now I have never done this since autocalc was introduced as it has always given me the stat output I want +\- a small percent.
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:17 PM   #4
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If you are starting a new season\game the easiest way is to hit the autocalc button. OOTP will set the modifiers for you. It is one of the best features Markus added to the game several years ago.

It is only available before the season starts. Best time to hit it is on opening day before any games are played. Once a game is played the option goes away until the next season.

Once you do this you will be very close to your target numbers, IE your League Totals. It is then fairly simple to dial things up or down using the LTMs at a percentage change. Now I have never done this since autocalc was introduced as it has always given me the stat output I want +\- a small percent.
Yeah when I autocalced I still got a dozen plus hitters striking out 200+ times a season with Sano leading the way at like 270-280. That's just way too high for me.
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:56 PM   #5
atlbrave1
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I wouldn't suggest using the auto-calc. I've never been able to get it work well - also I believe it is something you need to to do before every season, which doesn't help when you want to sim 20 years and walk away for a couple of hours.

LTMs and PCMs are the way to go, in my opinion.
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Old 03-20-2020, 06:07 PM   #6
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Alpine-

Are there certain league totals you are looking to achieve? Let me know and I can try and point you in the right direction for LTMs and PCMs.
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Old 03-20-2020, 06:27 PM   #7
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Yeah when I autocalced I still got a dozen plus hitters striking out 200+ times a season with Sano leading the way at like 270-280. That's just way too high for me.
How were the total Ks league wide? IOW are you getting the right amount of Ks but too many are going to those guys with 200 +?

Or are you getting too many Ks league wide and that is why the leaders are getting 200+ Ks?
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Old 03-20-2020, 08:40 PM   #8
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How were the total Ks league wide? IOW are you getting the right amount of Ks but too many are going to those guys with 200 +?

Or are you getting too many Ks league wide and that is why the leaders are getting 200+ Ks?
Thanks for the input. Here is what I am seeing... The 2018 and 2019 are real ML numbers..

2018 - 41,207 - Top 3 for AL - 217, 211, 207; Top NL - 178
2019 - 42,823 - Top for AL - 178; Top for NL - 189
2020 - 42,078 - Top 5 AL - 261, 231, 212, 207, 202 Top 2 NL - 214, 209
2021 - 42,345 - Top 5 AL - 276, 236, 229, 226, 215 Top 4 NL - 250, 243, 207, 204
2022 - 37,122 - 2 players (208, 204 SO)
2023 - 34,573 - 1 player (209 SO)

I dialed down the LTM's for strikeouts each year, bottoming out at .850 in 2023.

So what appears to be happening is the strikeouts that the game engine is producing are REALLY top heavy. In order to get it down to what appears to be a more realistic player total, you have to cut the league totals significantly.

The problem is, I am paying for it on the other end. The league ERA for the AL in 2023 was 5.12.

I just can't figure out how to solve it, but I just dont think that seeing guys strike out 250+ times a year is very realistic. In some of the other sims I've run through Build .30, Sano, for example, was striking out 280 times while hitting .186, and he spent most of the year batting cleanup.
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Old 03-20-2020, 09:25 PM   #9
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The Quickstart is a bit harder to work around. Let me see what I can do. Are you looking to keep total K's at same level, but want to see the distribution curve tweak?
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Old 03-20-2020, 09:29 PM   #10
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The Quickstart is a bit harder to work around. Let me see what I can do. Are you looking to keep total K's at same level, but want to see the distribution curve tweak?
I mean, that would be ideal if possible. Hence why I was looking for input because there are a lot of people who are A LOT smarter than I am with LTM's.

Thanks!

Also I've pretty much thrown out the idea of playing in Challenge Mode this year because of this, but i guess its a sacrifice I am going to have to make if i want the realism I'm looking for.
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Old 03-20-2020, 09:54 PM   #11
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The problem with tweaking the distribution curve is that you can do that through a combination of the PCMs and the LTMs (mostly PCMs in my experience). The PCMs don't have any effect on the Quickstart because the player ratings are set out of the box.

You can get the ERA down -- as you reduce K's, you need to reduce BABIP. That is most likely the cause of the ERA increase.

Using PCMs and LTMs together will allow you to get the level you want 20 years in the future, but going to be very difficult to do in the near future with the Quickstart.
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Old 03-20-2020, 10:07 PM   #12
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Here's an example of using K modifier and BABIP together. BA is still bit high, but can still be tweaked. That's the fun(???) part.

Its also one of the reasons I do fictional - don't have the hardcoded ratings to work around. Also don't think about guys like Sano and how they perform within the game.
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Old 03-20-2020, 10:19 PM   #13
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Just from looking at this output, I would probably reduce contact some and maybe reduce BABIP as well to get the batting average down.

Like I said, play around with it until you get what looks good to you. To get the 5 to 10 year numbers look right, you may have to tweak a lot more as the hard coded prospects start to come through.

Hope this helped.
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Old 03-20-2020, 10:27 PM   #14
crowhop
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Best way I think to keep the numbers in check is to reference them using this link...
https://www.baseball-reference.com/l.../MLB/bat.shtml

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Old 03-20-2020, 11:01 PM   #15
atlbrave1
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Agreed. I have multiple excel workbooks based off the baseball reference totals so I can see league totals for multiple years, random years etc.

Sean Forman (creator and administrator of the site) should be in the Hall of Fame in my opinion. And I'm a a small hall of fame guy. That's how important I think that site was and is for baseball.

But to Alpine's point, the totals are good to shoot for (I do the same when I mess around with the modifiers), but the distribution is also important and more difficult to reproduce in OOTP. After I ran a year in the Quickstart the totals looked good, but I also had a Sano season with 260+ Ks and a couple more (Gallo) over 250. Possible? Perhaps. More likely wouldn't happen because their productivity would be impacted enough to get benched.
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Old 03-21-2020, 06:31 AM   #16
AlpineSK
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Best way I think to keep the numbers in check is to reference them using this link...
https://www.baseball-reference.com/l.../MLB/bat.shtml

Agreed. Baseball reference is like my Bible hence my argument that this whole thing is top heavy..
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:17 AM   #17
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Thanks for the input. Here is what I am seeing... The 2018 and 2019 are real ML numbers..

2018 - 41,207 - Top 3 for AL - 217, 211, 207; Top NL - 178
2019 - 42,823 - Top for AL - 178; Top for NL - 189
2020 - 42,078 - Top 5 AL - 261, 231, 212, 207, 202 Top 2 NL - 214, 209
2021 - 42,345 - Top 5 AL - 276, 236, 229, 226, 215 Top 4 NL - 250, 243, 207, 204
2022 - 37,122 - 2 players (208, 204 SO)
2023 - 34,573 - 1 player (209 SO)

I dialed down the LTM's for strikeouts each year, bottoming out at .850 in 2023.

So what appears to be happening is the strikeouts that the game engine is producing are REALLY top heavy. In order to get it down to what appears to be a more realistic player total, you have to cut the league totals significantly.

The problem is, I am paying for it on the other end. The league ERA for the AL in 2023 was 5.12.

I just can't figure out how to solve it, but I just dont think that seeing guys strike out 250+ times a year is very realistic. In some of the other sims I've run through Build .30, Sano, for example, was striking out 280 times while hitting .186, and he spent most of the year batting cleanup.
Thanks for posting these. Yeah, looks like totals for league were fine but distribution was off for the "lots of K guys"? My game is an on going import from v4 'til now so I have never had this issue. My league totals are from an old version and Ks are set at 31,828 with present day at ~42,000 wow! A quick look at BBR shows me my LT are from 2004.

I watch a lot of baseball, meaning my Cubs almost exclusively so mostly pay attention to their players and stats. When I was a young man I knew league stats, players, etc. league wide, I just don't take the time anymore.
I really had no idea there were so many 200k guys IRL. If a Cub was approaching that (think Baez in his first year) I figured he'd never stick around.

Having said that and looking at your LT and results I don't have a good answer other than.... maybe Markus is right and OOTP is a good predictor of where it is all going. If they play a full season this year will these numbers come to be? Will it be acceptable in current MLB if a player's other numbers fit the new metrics? I don't know. lol

I know I wouldn't spend time trying to tweak a lot of things trying to lower Ks for just the top guys. I don't think there is a way to affect that without affecting everyone anyway. As you note the only success you've had is to return to LT Ks in the mid to low ~30,000(s). My only other thought is since this is a handmade roster set being followed by handmade prospects it will come more in line as the league grows to fictional by attrition?

We're all different and I get that you have a hard time accepting these numbers, I probably would too However if it were me I would play on, as is, and see where it took me. Again just me but I would not have the time or inclination to try to tweak this. It would drive me nuts every time I tweak A then B would be off. Wish I could be more help.
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:48 AM   #18
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Thanks for posting these. Yeah, looks like totals for league were fine but distribution was off for the "lots of K guys"? My game is an on going import from v4 'til now so I have never had this issue. My league totals are from an old version and Ks are set at 31,828 with present day at ~42,000 wow! A quick look at BBR shows me my LT are from 2004.

I watch a lot of baseball, meaning my Cubs almost exclusively so mostly pay attention to their players and stats. When I was a young man I knew league stats, players, etc. league wide, I just don't take the time anymore.
I really had no idea there were so many 200k guys IRL. If a Cub was approaching that (think Baez in his first year) I figured he'd never stick around.

Having said that and looking at your LT and results I don't have a good answer other than.... maybe Markus is right and OOTP is a good predictor of where it is all going. If they play a full season this year will these numbers come to be? Will it be acceptable in current MLB if a player's other numbers fit the new metrics? I don't know. lol

I know I wouldn't spend time trying to tweak a lot of things trying to lower Ks for just the top guys. I don't think there is a way to affect that without affecting everyone anyway. As you note the only success you've had is to return to LT Ks in the mid to low ~30,000(s). My only other thought is since this is a handmade roster set being followed by handmade prospects it will come more in line as the league grows to fictional by attrition?

We're all different and I get that you have a hard time accepting these numbers, I probably would too However if it were me I would play on, as is, and see where it took me. Again just me but I would not have the time or inclination to try to tweak this. It would drive me nuts every time I tweak A then B would be off. Wish I could be more help.
Again, yeah thanks for the feedback. We are a lot alike I'd say in our appreciation and attention to the stats. I could see some guys being over 200, but its the top end that erks me. I think 250-280 is unreasonable that's all.

Like I said, I've pretty much thrown the hopes of playing in Challenge Mode out the window since Markus made it pretty clear that he sees no issue with this, so I might as well just go full commish mode and edit guys like Sano or Gallo since they seem to be the worst offenders.

Appreciate all the help though!
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:56 AM   #19
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Again, yeah thanks for the feedback. We are a lot alike I'd say in our appreciation and attention to the stats. I could see some guys being over 200, but its the top end that erks me. I think 250-280 is unreasonable that's all.

Like I said, I've pretty much thrown the hopes of playing in Challenge Mode out the window since Markus made it pretty clear that he sees no issue with this, so I might as well just go full commish mode and edit guys like Sano or Gallo since they seem to be the worst offenders.

Appreciate all the help though!
After I posted and went to get some breakfast this idea occurred to me too as the "best" solution. Edit those players to K less and those Ks will go to someone else It will be interesting to see how that works as you move ahead and new talent comes into the league. Will there be new offenders?

Also, if MLB gets up and running will OOTP actually be getting a new trend right? Who knows?

Good luck
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:11 AM   #20
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Having a similar season in my fictional league I imported, i think a few top starters have like 18 k per 9 but I'm just calling it the year of the strikeout I'm my head...
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