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08-21-2019, 10:01 AM | #1 |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 735
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Do all historical cards of same rarity have same probability?
So we know the probability that a card of a given rarity will show up when a deck is opened --- it is placed right on the pack. Also, the developers have disclosed the probability that a given card will be LIVE (70%) or other.
But I haven't seen anybody post whether historical cards of the same rarity are equally likely to come up or whether LIVE cards of the same rarity are equally likely to come up. So... the question I have is: Is a Waite Hoyt (98) (average auction price 440k) as likely to come up as, say, a Vic Rashi (90) (average auction price of 6300)? And is a perfect Mike Trout (44k average auction) as likely to come up as any other LIVE perfect? Thanks for the information!
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Last edited by allenciox; 08-21-2019 at 10:05 AM. |
08-21-2019, 11:55 AM | #2 | |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 560
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Quote:
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08-21-2019, 01:01 PM | #3 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Posts: 1,328
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Here are two links to This Week In Perfect Team where rare cards are discussed:
For 20: https://youtu.be/l0UQ5jsiLXA?t=1215 For 19: https://youtu.be/gz1adl2lGXc?t=726 Kris does specifically mention that the pulls are equal for the different card categories (ie a Legend has the same chance to be pulled as an All Star). Nothing is mentioned here about card pulls being affected by overall ratings. However, the 5 rarest cards in 20 were all between 95 and 98 OVR, while all but 3 of the 15 rarest cards in 19 were between 96 and 98 OVR, with the outliers being 2 historic perfects and 1 random 92 OVR card. This is all that a very brief search returned on the subject, so more information may well be out there.
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08-21-2019, 01:15 PM | #4 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 2,152
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I would be shocked if a higher overall rating didn't play a factor in rarity.
For perfects though I expect them to all be the same within a category. |
08-22-2019, 09:41 AM | #5 |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 735
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Ok, based on these posts, my guess is that the top half of a particular rarity is less likely than the lower half.
So the indication that the rarest cards were all in the top half of the diamond level could be explained either if that top half were less likely than the bottom half, or if there were far more cards in the top half than the bottom half. However, the reverse appears to be the case. There are a total of 307 cards rated 95 - 99, but 376 cards rated 90-94. So the indication that the most rare diamond cards are in the top half (fewer to choose from) solidifies the case that these are sampled less often.
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08-22-2019, 11:40 AM | #6 | |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 560
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