An Experiment of 3 Teams

[allenciox]

So my Sabercats-like team has never had a winning season in perfect league, but it is possible this season that will change. The Weston Pointe Caspers are, ironically, in the same division as your Sabercats, but at least in the early going is doing much better than usual (16-10 after first day --- but their pyth. record is 17-9). I am currently working on upgrading this team (I have about 18k points saved up) so we will see if I can make it good enough to get in playoff in perfect.

The problem with these power teams is that the high MOV on pitchers you encounter at the perfect level dramatically decreases the amount of home runs they hit, while the higher CON reduces the number of walks you get. The other problem is that, according to statistical analysis I have done, avoidK turns out to be quite important (over and above contact) for batters, and high power hitters inevitably have low avoidK.

Oh, by the way, for anybody else creating such a team, it behooves you to save for perfect Trout --- at the diamond and higher levels, he is almost essential to be effective with a power team --- and, at 44k, he is probably the biggest deal in all of Perfect Team. If he weren't a LIVE player, he would be going for at least three times that.

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by allenciox

The other problem is that, according to statistical analysis I have done, avoidK turns out to be quite important (over and above contact) for batters, and high power hitters inevitably have low avoidK.

I'm very curious about your statistical analysis regarding Avoid K. It seems like there's always been a little bit of back-and-forth on this rating as to what it does. We know that Avoid K and the hidden BABIP number make up most of the Contact rating (along with a little Power). But does Avoid K have an independent use? So far the most convincing argument I've seen goes like this:

Player 1: 80 Contact / 80 Avoid K
Player 2: 80 Contact / 10 Avoid K

According to the most accepted theory, these players will have around the same batting average. Naturally, Player 2 will strikeout more, which will be offset by Player 1 hitting a lot more routine balls to the shortstop. Player 1 will generate more fielder's choice, sacrifices, and errors... but conversely also generate more double plays.

Another theory is that Avoid K goes head-to-head with the Stuff rating, and is thus more valuable than the above would indicate. Does the OOTP engine first decide there is an out, and then Avoid K only affects what type of out it is? Or is Avoid K involved in the process of deciding an out? I don't know.

[chazzycat]

I'm reasonably confident in my assessment that Avoid K does matter - it helps advance runners, which is significant in general. This is why I prioritize it quite highly on my SmallBallers team, who relies mostly on singles & doubles to score. So every base really counts. But when your offense revolves around walks and homers, it just doesn't seem as important. After all, it doesn't matter which base people are on when someone hits a homer. At least, that's my line of thought.

[Argonaut]

Curious whether advancing more runners is enough to offset the extra double plays? I also run a speedy team that always finishes 1st in BsR, and I suspect they avoid a lot double plays by virtue of their quickness. Maybe then Avoid K on its own is something to look for (besides its effect on Contact).

Would be interesting to see a simulation based on two players like I listed above. Does Player 1 come out ahead everytime? Does he come out ahead more in an AVG friendly park? Does Player 2 come out ahead in a pitcher's park?

I'll have time to do simulations in August, but for now I defer to chazzycat if he's interested.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by allenciox

The problem with these power teams is that the high MOV on pitchers you encounter at the perfect level dramatically decreases the amount of home runs they hit, while the higher CON reduces the number of walks you get.

While definitely true, competition is just much stiffer in the higher levels across the board. The pitchers don't only have higher MOV and CON ratings, they also have higher STU ratings, and better defense, which brings down contact-based offenses as well. So I'm not quite sure about that. You may well be right - especially considering high MOV is considered the "meta" for pitchers...I don't know.

Don't get me wrong, contact does seem a much wiser bet overall - I mean this thread is exhibit A. But I still believe that's more due to the rarity of players with the right skills, not necessarily that it's an inherently better strategy.

Originally Posted by allenciox

Oh, by the way, for anybody else creating such a team, it behooves you to save for perfect Trout --- at the diamond and higher levels, he is almost essential to be effective with a power team --- and, at 44k, he is probably the biggest deal in all of Perfect Team. If he weren't a LIVE player, he would be going for at least three times that.

Absolutely agree with that!

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

Curious whether advancing more runners is enough to offset the extra double plays?

I would think so. For starters, one of the benefits of players with high "avoid K" rating is you can set the "hit and run" slider higher...without fearing a strike-em-out throw-em-out double play, the hit and run is more viable. I think this prevents some double plays. Also, contact based players (high avoid K) tend to be faster than sluggers (low avoid K), another thing that will cut down on DPs.

And of course, double plays are only a factor in one specific situation - a runner on first combined with a groundball. There are many situations in which a groundball or flyball are much better than a strikeout. Especially in my park with max doubles & triple factors, and really good gap hitters...there are lots of runners on second and third base too. Any time there's a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs, that avoid K is super valuable. In fact having more Avoid K would not only help in those situations...it would help create more of those situations as well. Consider a leadoff double....a grounder could move him over and a flyball bring him home.

[allenciox]

So, as to the AvoidK thing. A priori, there is no specific reason to figure that AvoidK should be important over and above the Contact rating, since, against an average pitcher, the batting average is completely determined by the Contact rating; already taking AvoidK into consideration.

The question is what happens when you exceed those averages, as in the higher levels of perfect team. And that is an empirical question.

So I analyzed statistically several seasons of data at iron, bronze, and silver level and found that there was no "additional" effect on batting average for AvoidK over and above what contact determined.

However, the same analysis over many perfect level perfect league seasons shows a substantial effect of AvoidK on batting average over and above Contact alone. This effect is significant at a p level substantially lower than .00001, which is less than one thousandth of one percent; meaning there is less than that chance of occurring if there wasn't actually an effect. So it isn't really a question of whether avoidK does affect batting average over and above Contact at the perfect level, the only question is really why.

[Argonaut]

Take for example a comparison between Frankie Frisch 88 (Legend) and Heinie Groh 80 (Hardware). They are quite similar cards except for CON/Avoid K.

Frisch: 67 CON/98 AvK
Groh: 77 CON/66 AvK

Is Frisch's elite AvK enough to offset a CON that is 10 points lower? Frankie is a bit better defender too.

Right now I prefer Groh, but maybe if I was convinced Avoid K mattered a lot, I might change my mind. Not sure if all those advancing runners scenario add up to a lot of value over a season?

EDIT: Very interesting, allenciox.. maybe an environment of tons of pitchers with elite Stuff really impacts things.

[allenciox]

So, Argonaut, CON is clearly a much more important stat than AvoidK in both wOBA and batting average calculations. My latest analysis indicates that, at perfect level, each point in CON is worth about eight points of AvoidK. So, in the case you mention, Frisch's AvK should NOT be enough to offset a CON that is 10 points lower.

[OMGPuppies]

Chazzy, for a high contact, low homer, fast, good baserunning, avoid k team would you recommend flyball or groundball pitchers in a high average, high doub/trip and low homer park? And how much should i emphasize defense at each position?

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by OMGPuppies

Chazzy, for a high contact, low homer, fast, good baserunning, avoid k team would you recommend flyball or groundball pitchers in a high average, high doub/trip and low homer park? And how much should i emphasize defense at each position?

Well I can tell you my strategy...but honestly I'm not that confident it's the best way to go or anything. My pitching rankings are usually towards the bottom of the league. The 1.1 AVG factor is just murder to pitchers ERAs, any way you slice it.

Basically my line of thinking was that with max AVG factors, I should prioritize defense pretty much everywhere. So in the end I didn't really care too much about grounders vs. flyballs. Actually most of my pitching staff is currently "neutral" I believe.

What I do consider important is limiting baserunners as best as possible. With hits & runs coming easy, every runner is a threat to score, so my strategy has been to keep them off the bases. That means I want strikeouts to limit hits (stuff), and high control to limit walks. Homers I can live with somewhat...they are harder to hit in my park, and if they are mostly solo shots, they won't kill me. So I'm just looking for pitchers where their 3 main skill bars are shaped like this: <

But not too extreme. That's why I got rid of Verlander recently, his MOV dipped into the 30s and that doesn't cut it. However in general, the low-MOV pitchers are generally much more affordable because MOV is all the rage. So I think that does help me stretch the PPs a bit further.

It was an extremely effective strategy up to perfect level, I can tell you that. But in perfect it's only been good enough to put up a neutral run differential. Then again...are there many $10 teams who are actually better than average in perfect?

[allenciox]

So another question, chazzycar: do you prioritize speed and stealing with your smallball club? Because I don't with the Bunnies because I feel that with the increased extra base hits that doing a lot of stealing might be detrimental, as when they fail they get an out, and many players will be scoring from first anyway on an extra base hit. But I also hit into a lot of double plays, which is the downside, of course.

[chazzycat]

I do prioritize speed and baserunning ability, but not so much stealing. I started out with more of a focus on that, but found it difficult to make it pay off. It seems like really only super-elite base stealers (100 speed/stealing) can reliably add a significant amount of value on the basepaths, and I couldn't really afford those types. Over time my team gravitated more towards gap hitting than true small-ball. I also have been steadily working on improving my eye ratings, trying to improve my OBP. Bases-loaded doubles are my favorite

But I do still put a lot of effort into baserunning strategies. Certainly much moreso than my other teams. Every player has their own custom strategy sliders, which I regularly look at and fine tune. Usually at the end of the season my team is near the top of the league in baserunning value. But yeah it's not from stealing.

[OMGPuppies]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I do prioritize speed and baserunning ability, but not so much stealing. I started out with more of a focus on that, but found it difficult to make it pay off. It seems like really only super-elite base stealers (100 speed/stealing) can reliably add a significant amount of value on the basepaths, and I couldn't really afford those types. Over time my team gravitated more towards gap hitting than true small-ball. I also have been steadily working on improving my eye ratings, trying to improve my OBP. Bases-loaded doubles are my favorite

But I do still put a lot of effort into baserunning strategies. Certainly much moreso than my other teams. Every player has their own custom strategy sliders, which I regularly look at and fine tune. Usually at the end of the season my team is near the top of the league in baserunning value. But yeah it's not from stealing.

What do you consider a good baserunning rating? It is tough to afford the top of the line basestealers, and yeah, if they are only good base stealers they will get caught more than you'd want.

[Argonaut]

80/80 Speed/Stealing works at the lower levels. In the higher levels it looks like only near 100/100 generates value from stealing. I have a 50 speed minimum and a lot of guys around 80/80, but only Tim Raines and Buck Ewing generate consistent value from stealing. But I give the rest of the team at least somewhat of a green light because it's "fun".

There may be better DHs out there, but I'll never give up my Tim Raines!

[OMGPuppies]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

80/80 Speed/Stealing works at the lower levels. In the higher levels it looks like only near 100/100 generates value from stealing. I have a 50 speed minimum and a lot of guys around 80/80, but only Tim Raines and Buck Ewing generate consistent value from stealing. But I give the rest of the team at least somewhat of a green light because it's "fun".

There may be better DHs out there, but I'll never give up my Tim Raines!

It sure is fun. No matter how many times my gus get caught. What is the most steals Buck Ewing has had in a season? Trying to get over a hundy with Sliding Billy this year.

[chazzycat]

Sometimes the baseball gods retribution is swift. The SmallBallers are playing fairly well this season, with the best run differential in their division, unlike last year. But with a -5 pythag record and the guy ahead of me +6, things aren't looking good (7.5 back). Can't really complain though after the miraculous luck in the previous season. There's still time to snag a wild card spot if I get hot.

The SaberCats are not doing too great, to put it bluntly. This doesn't surprise me too much, as they didn't really look like a strong perfect level team in the first place, and I think they are disadvantaged in this league. It's actually the run prevention that has fallen apart, not the offense. All my pitchers ERAs are way up from the previous year, and it looks like it's mostly driven by BABIP, which is up across the board. My best guess is that is a result of this league having a lot of contact-based offenses and park factors. I'm hoping a little of it is just bad luck...we'll see. Currently, they are just a few slots above the relegation teams and last in their division.

The Balancers are also having a pretty disappointing season so far, playing just .500 ball in diamond with a matching, neutral, run differential. Seems like the entire offense just kinda went cold. They are still just a couple games out of the wild card though, with a couple months left. So they are in similar spot as the SmallBallers...with a hot streak they have an outside chance at making the playoffs.

[chazzycat]

The SmallBallers actually ended up sneaking into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. And they put together another decent playoff run, winning the wild card game and then the division series, in a rematch of last season's WS. They fell in the CS round in 6 games. By regular season run differential, this was actually one their best seasons (around +100).

The SaberCats were in real danger of relegation, especially when they went on a 8-game losing streak to finish the season. They finished just one win above the threshold. Hopefully they can do better this week.

The Balancers ended up with a mediocre season compared to usual, well out of playoff range. We'll see if they can return to being a playoff team this week.

[chazzycat]

Well, this was unexpected:



The SaberCats are outperforming the SmallBallers! That's a first.

I think mostly it just goes to show how important conference placement can be. The SmallBallers are in a conference with two mega-whales, including one in my division, whereas the SaberCats have none in that conference.

[OMGPuppies]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Well, this was unexpected:



The SaberCats are outperforming the SmallBallers! That's a first.

I think mostly it just goes to show how important conference placement can be. The SmallBallers are in a conference with two mega-whales, including one in my division, whereas the SaberCats have none in that conference.

Sabercats took 2 of 3 from Kaneohe. 4 game series vs. Aina Haina about to start.