Batters with high BB ratings ? - Page 2

clarnzz · 08-22-2003, 08:06 AM

But did every other batter walk and the others get out?

I still do find those results pretty surprising though. Did your tinkering make it very difficult for anyone to get a hit in your park?

Wonder how many runs a team would score that batted .468 with no walks.

clarnzz · 08-22-2003, 09:07 AM

Just since I found your results so surprising. I figured Id attempt to duplicate it. I used the Royals in the OOTP5 default rosters and set all the walks ratings to 21 except, the rest to 0, except for k's I set at 5. I ran the league in replay mode, no trades, no position fatigue, and put the Royals on human so they wouldnt try to sneak anyone up from AAA.

The team went 38-124 and scored 539 runs. Not sure why my results were so differant. They did walk 2167 times as team for a league leading .354 OBP. What were the details of your test, not sure why mine turned out so differant?

Edit: I did notice that you had their K ratings set at 10, but I dont think that would of caused such a big differance.

Edit 2:
I ran another little test switching the walks down to 1 and the AVG up to .356. The team responded to hit .333 with a .340 OBP and scored 633 runs.

Least from this it only seemed a single was 1.2X more valuable than a walk. Anyways, Ive thought of about 10 differant tests I could run to attempt to put a value on BB, 1b, 2b, 3b and HR idependantly independantly and try to develop some sort of scale. In the end the results would still be flawed and due to the vast variables involved with lineup strategies would still likely be meaningless.

I'm not going down this road because I may not come back sane enough to function on a daily basis any longer.

"I'm not playing anymore."
*claps hands and walks off like Token after watching the "Lord of the Rings"*

"Five midgets, spanking a man... covered in Thousand Island dressing. Is that making love? "

sporr · 08-22-2003, 11:04 AM

Regardless, I'll still take the walk-guys if I can get them. If a high average guy is having an off year, his abundance of walks will still keep him valuable to you.

Springtime_for_Hunter · 08-22-2003, 01:17 PM

I suspect the difference is that I'm still using OOTP4, and v5's pitcher-pulling logic is not quite so insane. I did essentially what you did, except for the strikeouts bump (which would also help quite a bit for .000 avg guys).

But in v4 at least, if a guy has a no-hitter going, the AI will leave him in -- come hell, high water, or 96 walks.

ctorg · 08-22-2003, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by dougk62
I think my logic goes something like this: (I'm not sure if it's good logic though)

1) The BB rating is a rating of # of walks per 550 Plate Appearances

2) The HR and AVG ratings are based on 550 At Bats

3) Two players equal except for the BB rating will aquire a different amount of at bats for the same 550 plate appearances. The greater number of at bats for the guy with the lower BB rating will result in more singles doubles and HR's.

4) Conclusion: All things being equal except for the BB rating, the guy with more walks gets less home runs during the season.

I thought walks were also per 550 AB.

clarnzz · 08-22-2003, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ctorg
I thought walks were also per 550 AB.

Darn it, sucked back in. lol

Would that mean the more ya walk the less ya walk?

Gastric ReFlux · 08-22-2003, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Springtime_for_Hunter
Just for the hell of it, I took the 2002 Royals and converted all the hitters' ratings to 0/0/0/0/21/10, the most OOTP will allow (.464 OBP). The Royals finished last, but won a respectable 69 games, and were within five games of the division lead as late as August 10th.

The team batting average was .017 (the pitchers hit .160 in interleague play), they hit no home runs, the team leader in hits had 11, but the team scored an incredible 1138 runs. I can't give an accurate walk count because nearly every player overflowed. Had the pitching not stunk so much, the team probably would have done pretty darn well.

Notable victories were 48-9 over Cleveland on May 12 (64 walks), 36-9 over Cleveland again on May 17th (47 walks), 23-8 over Cleveland the next day, May 18th (43 walks), 36-5 over Florida on June 10th (52 walks), 23-10 the next day (37 walks), and 18-2 to finish the sweep (32 walks), 51-5 over Seattle on July 2 (70 walks), 48-3 over Chicago on July 27th (69 walks), 74-4 over Minnesota on August 5 (98 walks), and 37-2 over Tampa Bay on August 9th (58 walks).

They were no-hit 107 times.

A team of Eddie Gaedels, I love it.

ctorg · 08-22-2003, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by clarnzz
Darn it, sucked back in. lol

Would that mean the more ya walk the less ya walk?

Just because a walk is not an at bat doesn't mean you can't state walks in proportion to at bats. Actually, it would make more sense to do it that way, since other ratings are done that way. Either way, the point works anyway.

clarnzz · 08-22-2003, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ctorg
Just because a walk is not an at bat doesn't mean you can't state walks in proportion to at bats. Actually, it would make more sense to do it that way, since other ratings are done that way. Either way, the point works anyway.

My comment was in jest.

Actually it would make more sense to base it all on PA imo. Then the walks wouldn't be competeing against the homers.

HolyCow98 · 08-23-2003, 01:12 AM

In my O5B Braves team I have no starter who has higher than a 5 in AVG in rating. What I do have is 2 guys with 11 in BB, 2 guys with 8 in BB....and hand fule of guys that look like this 4-8-11 or 5-10-11 or 5-5-8....(AVG-HR-BB).

I'm mainly developing some good prospects this season but tried to field a team that could be atleast somewhat competitve. Anyway here are my league rankings (30 teams) at the All-Star break (88 games)

AVG: .265 (10th)
HR: 107 (7th)
BB 367 (2nd) 1 behind the leader
SB: 24 (27th)
Runs: 500 (2nd)

With this particular team, my No 3 hitter is Jeremy Giambi with AVG HR BB ratings of 4-8-11
my clean up hitter is Erubiel Durazo with a 5-10-11
my no 5 hitter off and on has been Earl Snyder who has ratings of 4-10-4.

Now I thought I wouldn't hit very well...especially with my hitters poor average ratings, and even more so with their lower abilities vs Left handed pitchers.

Earl Snyder does not walk much and strikes out a ton...but batting behind these BB guys his season stats are:

AVG: .244
AB: 270
H: 66
HR: 19
RBI: 63
BB: 21
SO: 75

Mel_Ott · 08-23-2003, 01:24 AM

This sounded intriguing, so I ran some quick calculations that turned out to state the obvious:

If you have two guys with identical averages and power numbers, but different walk rates, the guy that walks more will be more valuable. This is because, while the slugging percentage remains the same, the OBP for the walker will be higher - and therefore giving him a bigger OPS. The walker will have fewer RBIs, in all likelihood, but RBIs depend so much on the other batters that I think it would be hard to get a good grasp on what the effect was.

A more interesting question is whether a slugger with a low walk rate is more or less valuable than a walker with the same batting average. This will depend ultimately on how great the difference is between Homer's SLG and Walker's OBP. If you use some modified version of OPS, Homer's going to have to outpace Walker's OBP by anywhere from 1.4 to 3 times. This means that, contrary to what many of us (and the AI) believe, a hitter with a 4 average, 4 homers, and 6 walks rating is about as valuable as a slugger with 4/8/4.

clarnzz · 08-23-2003, 02:15 AM

But guys like Antonio Cervantes and Antonio Perez sometimes blow up and have a dominant year. The best case scenrio with the guy pulling the walks is likely a Bill Haselman Jr. or a Gustavo Vega.

crackpott · 08-23-2003, 04:20 AM

hardly a fair comparison. Give those guys the homrun ratings of the others and see what they can do.

clarnzz · 08-23-2003, 05:37 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mel_Ott
This means that, contrary to what many of us (and the AI) believe, a hitter with a 4 average, 4 homers, and 6 walks rating is about as valuable as a slugger with 4/8/4.

It was a reply to this. Guys didn't quite fit right into the mold but were close in proportion. One thing I didnt notice the first time I looked was that Haselman Jr., Cervantes, and Perez all have identical RC/27 outs. I find that very surprising.

Woodchuck · 08-23-2003, 11:41 AM

Give me walks or give me death!

Rack up the walks, burn out the opposing starting pitcher and get into his pen

Plus in OOTP can you even have a 10+ Hits guy? Seems like there are plenty of 10+ Walks guys in the leagues I'm in.

And has anyone ever figured out if strike zone guys (good BB and avoid Ks) develop any different in the game? In real baseball it seems like those players really start to blossom when they don't swing at first pitch curveballs in the dirt.

Specs · 08-23-2003, 06:09 PM

Guys who can draw walks and do little else are quite cheap and a very good pickup to fill out a team. Take, for example, my future CDL second baseman and third baseman, Lance Blankenship and Craig Worthington. In the last draft, I picked them up 51st and 62nd overall, but they will be starters on my future team, and their very presence in the draft enabled me to grab future top-of-the-rotation pitchers like Greg Harris and Ken Hill with my two first round picks that weren't spent on Gary Sheffield, another 100 BB guy. In one draft, I picked up three guys who will contribute in at least a platoon role, as well as two starters and a run producer. With another four of the top 27 picks next season, and another seven of the first 52, I should be able to fill out a very good young core, especially with those two young players Blankenship and Worthington who are, IMHO, more valuable than Good/Fair/Fair players, but will remain much cheaper. In OOTP, and in online leagues with a cap like the $72M one the CDL has now, they allow you to keep an affordable team on the field, meaning I can actually keep Sheffield for possibly his whole career.

ATypicalGiantsFan · 08-23-2003, 10:36 PM

I made a spreadsheet to look into the values of the various ootp ratings, I found that one walk point and one homerun point are nearly the same with an edge to walks.

One walk point in the ratings gives 12 extra walks per 550 PA, which using a basic linear weights formula (similar to Runs Created for those of you that don't know) produces 4.2 extra runs (.35 runs per each walk). While each home run point counts for 4 home runs, which produces 5.6 runs (1.4 runs per home run). This appears that the home run is more valuble but, the ratings affeect other values as well. For walks, walks take away an at bat totals, so the PA will be 550 which walks are base on. This in turn takes away any consequent hits because the hits are based on 550 at bats not 550 PA. The value of the outs taken away as a result of the lost AB's basically cancels out the value of the lost hits, so the value of a walk rating point is still 4.2 runs. However the homeruns added take away singles because each player only gets a certain number of hits based on the getting hits rating, so 4 home runs gained is 4 singles lost, which produces 2 runs (about .5 runs per single). This means a home run rating point nets a gain of about 3.6 runs as compared to 4.2 runs for a walk rating point.

I don't know if you can follow this, it makes sense to me. I can send you a copy of the spreadsheet I made if you want.

Specs · 08-23-2003, 11:33 PM

given G/B or B/G HR/BB talents, I would take the former with all things equal except those. Likewise for P/B and B/P.

clarnzz · 08-23-2003, 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ATypicalGiantsFan
I made a spreadsheet to look into the values of the various ootp ratings, I found that one walk point and one homerun point are nearly the same with an edge to walks.

One walk point in the ratings gives 12 extra walks per 550 PA, which using a basic linear weights formula (similar to Runs Created for those of you that don't know) produces 4.2 extra runs (.35 runs per each walk). While each home run point counts for 4 home runs, which produces 5.6 runs (1.4 runs per home run). This appears that the home run is more valuble but, the ratings affeect other values as well. For walks, walks take away an at bat totals, so the PA will be 550 which walks are base on. This in turn takes away any consequent hits because the hits are based on 550 at bats not 550 PA. The value of the outs taken away as a result of the lost AB's basically cancels out the value of the lost hits, so the value of a walk rating point is still 4.2 runs. However the homeruns added take away singles because each player only gets a certain number of hits based on the getting hits rating, so 4 home runs gained is 4 singles lost, which produces 2 runs (about .5 runs per single). This means a home run rating point nets a gain of about 3.6 runs as compared to 4.2 runs for a walk rating point.

I don't know if you can follow this, it makes sense to me. I can send you a copy of the spreadsheet I made if you want.

Yeah but walks are also based on AB so walks take away home runs and hits as well.

clarnzz · 08-24-2003, 12:01 AM

Also, by no means am I saying you don't want players with walks. Im just saying that with the current OBP craze, some sluggers can be had fairly cheap in most leagues. I really like what Holy Cow has going with his Braves. The values in most online leagues are the guys with low avg/low power/many walks and also the guys low avg/alot of power/low walks are the easiest and cheapest hitters to accquire in most leagues. While of course everyone would love to have a team full of guys who can do it all. I think the strategy of walks at top, guys who don't walk in the middle but hit alot of home runs could hold it's own in runs scored with the right balance. Even against the teams with guys who are decent at both spread out across. The point being, like when someone like Spec's Sheffield comes up after either his Blankenship or Worthington(both of which Id like alot better if they were a high defense MI) walk, that Sheffield wouldn't have a high chance to walk with a lower rating, but more likely to smack one out of the park and take advantage of the high OBP in front of him, rather than walking and passing the buck to the next guy in the order.

08-22-2003, 08:06 AM	#21
clarnzz All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Following everyone off a cliff. Posts: 1,522	But did every other batter walk and the others get out? I still do find those results pretty surprising though. Did your tinkering make it very difficult for anyone to get a hit in your park? Wonder how many runs a team would score that batted .468 with no walks. Last edited by clarnzz; 08-22-2003 at 08:29 AM.

08-22-2003, 09:07 AM	#22
clarnzz All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Following everyone off a cliff. Posts: 1,522	Just since I found your results so surprising. I figured Id attempt to duplicate it. I used the Royals in the OOTP5 default rosters and set all the walks ratings to 21 except, the rest to 0, except for k's I set at 5. I ran the league in replay mode, no trades, no position fatigue, and put the Royals on human so they wouldnt try to sneak anyone up from AAA. The team went 38-124 and scored 539 runs. Not sure why my results were so differant. They did walk 2167 times as team for a league leading .354 OBP. What were the details of your test, not sure why mine turned out so differant? Edit: I did notice that you had their K ratings set at 10, but I dont think that would of caused such a big differance. Edit 2: I ran another little test switching the walks down to 1 and the AVG up to .356. The team responded to hit .333 with a .340 OBP and scored 633 runs. Least from this it only seemed a single was 1.2X more valuable than a walk. Anyways, Ive thought of about 10 differant tests I could run to attempt to put a value on BB, 1b, 2b, 3b and HR idependantly independantly and try to develop some sort of scale. In the end the results would still be flawed and due to the vast variables involved with lineup strategies would still likely be meaningless. I'm not going down this road because I may not come back sane enough to function on a daily basis any longer. "I'm not playing anymore." claps hands and walks off like Token after watching the "Lord of the Rings" "Five midgets, spanking a man... covered in Thousand Island dressing. Is that making love? " Last edited by clarnzz; 08-22-2003 at 10:31 AM.

08-22-2003, 01:17 PM	#24
Springtime_for_Hunter All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 846	I suspect the difference is that I'm still using OOTP4, and v5's pitcher-pulling logic is not quite so insane. I did essentially what you did, except for the strikeouts bump (which would also help quite a bit for .000 avg guys). But in v4 at least, if a guy has a no-hitter going, the AI will leave him in -- come hell, high water, or 96 walks. __________________ "Only the utterly impossible, the inexpressibly fantastic, can ever be plausible again" Red Smith, New York Herald-Tribune, October 4, 1951

08-23-2003, 01:12 AM	#30
HolyCow98 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Douglasville, GA Posts: 2,735	In my O5B Braves team I have no starter who has higher than a 5 in AVG in rating. What I do have is 2 guys with 11 in BB, 2 guys with 8 in BB....and hand fule of guys that look like this 4-8-11 or 5-10-11 or 5-5-8....(AVG-HR-BB). I'm mainly developing some good prospects this season but tried to field a team that could be atleast somewhat competitve. Anyway here are my league rankings (30 teams) at the All-Star break (88 games) AVG: .265 (10th) HR: 107 (7th) BB 367 (2nd) 1 behind the leader SB: 24 (27th) Runs: 500 (2nd) With this particular team, my No 3 hitter is Jeremy Giambi with AVG HR BB ratings of 4-8-11 my clean up hitter is Erubiel Durazo with a 5-10-11 my no 5 hitter off and on has been Earl Snyder who has ratings of 4-10-4. Now I thought I wouldn't hit very well...especially with my hitters poor average ratings, and even more so with their lower abilities vs Left handed pitchers. Earl Snyder does not walk much and strikes out a ton...but batting behind these BB guys his season stats are: AVG: .244 AB: 270 H: 66 HR: 19 RBI: 63 BB: 21 SO: 75 __________________ NPBL Enjoying its 60th season Georgia GM

08-23-2003, 01:24 AM	#31
Mel_Ott Registered User Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Where the deer and the antelope play Posts: 924	This sounded intriguing, so I ran some quick calculations that turned out to state the obvious: If you have two guys with identical averages and power numbers, but different walk rates, the guy that walks more will be more valuable. This is because, while the slugging percentage remains the same, the OBP for the walker will be higher - and therefore giving him a bigger OPS. The walker will have fewer RBIs, in all likelihood, but RBIs depend so much on the other batters that I think it would be hard to get a good grasp on what the effect was. A more interesting question is whether a slugger with a low walk rate is more or less valuable than a walker with the same batting average. This will depend ultimately on how great the difference is between Homer's SLG and Walker's OBP. If you use some modified version of OPS, Homer's going to have to outpace Walker's OBP by anywhere from 1.4 to 3 times. This means that, contrary to what many of us (and the AI) believe, a hitter with a 4 average, 4 homers, and 6 walks rating is about as valuable as a slugger with 4/8/4. __________________ jgross's worst nightmare!!!!111 Owner, Sin City Swingers, OBTL

08-22-2003, 11:04 AM	#23
sporr Global Moderator Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Muscatine, IA Posts: 8,277	Regardless, I'll still take the walk-guys if I can get them. If a high average guy is having an off year, his abundance of walks will still keep him valuable to you.

08-23-2003, 02:15 AM	#32
clarnzz All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Following everyone off a cliff. Posts: 1,522	But guys like Antonio Cervantes and Antonio Perez sometimes blow up and have a dominant year. The best case scenrio with the guy pulling the walks is likely a Bill Haselman Jr. or a Gustavo Vega.

08-23-2003, 04:20 AM	#33
crackpott Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Toronto Posts: 2,961	hardly a fair comparison. Give those guys the homrun ratings of the others and see what they can do. __________________ Abandoned Planet - Check it out. The photos don't suck anymore.

08-23-2003, 11:41 AM	#35
Woodchuck Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 39	Give me walks or give me death! Rack up the walks, burn out the opposing starting pitcher and get into his pen Plus in OOTP can you even have a 10+ Hits guy? Seems like there are plenty of 10+ Walks guys in the leagues I'm in. And has anyone ever figured out if strike zone guys (good BB and avoid Ks) develop any different in the game? In real baseball it seems like those players really start to blossom when they don't swing at first pitch curveballs in the dirt.

08-23-2003, 10:36 PM	#37
ATypicalGiantsFan Registered User Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 105	I made a spreadsheet to look into the values of the various ootp ratings, I found that one walk point and one homerun point are nearly the same with an edge to walks. One walk point in the ratings gives 12 extra walks per 550 PA, which using a basic linear weights formula (similar to Runs Created for those of you that don't know) produces 4.2 extra runs (.35 runs per each walk). While each home run point counts for 4 home runs, which produces 5.6 runs (1.4 runs per home run). This appears that the home run is more valuble but, the ratings affeect other values as well. For walks, walks take away an at bat totals, so the PA will be 550 which walks are base on. This in turn takes away any consequent hits because the hits are based on 550 at bats not 550 PA. The value of the outs taken away as a result of the lost AB's basically cancels out the value of the lost hits, so the value of a walk rating point is still 4.2 runs. However the homeruns added take away singles because each player only gets a certain number of hits based on the getting hits rating, so 4 home runs gained is 4 singles lost, which produces 2 runs (about .5 runs per single). This means a home run rating point nets a gain of about 3.6 runs as compared to 4.2 runs for a walk rating point. I don't know if you can follow this, it makes sense to me. I can send you a copy of the spreadsheet I made if you want. __________________ According to the Chicago Tribune, the following statistic was given in the press notes for a Chicago-Oakland game: The Oakland Athletics are 32-0 in games in which they have scored more runs than their opponents. Phil Rizzuto - "Hey Yogi I think we're lost." - Yogi Berra - "Ya, but we're making great time!" "I knew I was going to take the wrong train, so I left early."-Berra

08-24-2003, 12:01 AM	#40
clarnzz All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Following everyone off a cliff. Posts: 1,522	Also, by no means am I saying you don't want players with walks. Im just saying that with the current OBP craze, some sluggers can be had fairly cheap in most leagues. I really like what Holy Cow has going with his Braves. The values in most online leagues are the guys with low avg/low power/many walks and also the guys low avg/alot of power/low walks are the easiest and cheapest hitters to accquire in most leagues. While of course everyone would love to have a team full of guys who can do it all. I think the strategy of walks at top, guys who don't walk in the middle but hit alot of home runs could hold it's own in runs scored with the right balance. Even against the teams with guys who are decent at both spread out across. The point being, like when someone like Spec's Sheffield comes up after either his Blankenship or Worthington(both of which Id like alot better if they were a high defense MI) walk, that Sheffield wouldn't have a high chance to walk with a lower rating, but more likely to smack one out of the park and take advantage of the high OBP in front of him, rather than walking and passing the buck to the next guy in the order.