2019 NFL Offseason Thread

[damientheomen3]

The NFL offseason is my favorite part of following sports (my being a Jets fan probably plays into that). The coaching carousel, player movement and free agency, the draft, I love every minute of it. Also, I know it's not technically the offseason, but with all the coaching movement the last couple days I figured this would be a good place for all that talk and all that will follow.

I touched upon this in the Packers thread, but I think Matt Lafleur is a risky move for Green Bay. I figure this young offensive coach bubble will burst and eventually NFL teams will be hiring coaches that have no ability to manage their team or command respect. Lafleur is off to a solid start, though, retaining an experienced coach in Mike Pettine, so at least the defense won't see a dramatic scheme shift.

I think the Cardinals messed up big time bringing in Kliff Kingsbury. He's being touted as a QB whisperer because he worked with Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield and Pat Mahomes at various points of their college careers. But Manziel busted, Mayfield (imo) was going to be successful regardless of his guidance and saw a lot more development influence from Lincoln Riley, and Mahomes came out looking more like a raw, moldable QB that needed the right coaching to get the most out of his considerable raw talent. Kingsbury has never held a coaching position in the NFL, went sub-.500 at Texas Tech, and never went better than 7-6 once the roster was made up primarily of players he brought in (including with Mahomes).

I think Arians to TB was a strong move. He's bringing in a lot of his old assistants, including Byron Leftwich and reportedly Todd Bowles. If that grouping hasn't grown stale, they have a good shot at improving Tampa at spots that have long been a weakness. Arians, as a no-nonsense guy, is also the perfect coach to get the most out of Jameis Winston in his last shot to prove he's the franchise guy. I'm still concerned about the presence of Jason Licht, though; to me he's proven to be one of the worst GMs in the NFL.

I've been hoping all offseason that my Jets hire Adam Gase or Todd Monken to run the show. Glad to see they're both still out there, we'll see how that all shakes out though.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

I touched upon this in the Packers thread, but I think Matt Lafleur is a risky move for Green Bay. I figure this young offensive coach bubble will burst and eventually NFL teams will be hiring coaches that have no ability to manage their team or command respect. Lafleur is off to a solid start, though, retaining an experienced coach in Mike Pettine, so at least the defense won't see a dramatic scheme shift

I don't get the trend to be trendy on personnel decisions. I'm not saying LaFleur won't work out. But I agree w/what I heard Tony Dungy said on the radio this morning. What you want from a pro HC is leadership. Strategies & philosophies ebb & flo. Over the years, we've never seen one style dominate the landscape. But all the great coaches were great leaders.

I think the Cardinals messed up big time bringing in Kliff Kingsbury. He's being touted as a QB whisperer because he worked with Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield and Pat Mahomes at various points of their college careers. But Manziel busted, Mayfield (imo) was going to be successful regardless of his guidance and saw a lot more development influence from Lincoln Riley, and Mahomes came out looking more like a raw, moldable QB that needed the right coaching to get the most out of his considerable raw talent. Kingsbury has never held a coaching position in the NFL, went sub-.500 at Texas Tech, and never went better than 7-6 once the roster was made up primarily of players he brought in (including with Mahomes).

I don;t get the Kingsbury love. I'd get him as a position coach. But there is a reason why he got fired @ Texas Tech. Some coaches will always be great coordinators, but will never be good head coaches.

I think Arians to TB was a strong move. He's bringing in a lot of his old assistants, including Byron Leftwich and reportedly Todd Bowles. If that grouping hasn't grown stale, they have a good shot at improving Tampa at spots that have long been a weakness. Arians, as a no-nonsense guy, is also the perfect coach to get the most out of Jameis Winston in his last shot to prove he's the franchise guy. I'm still concerned about the presence of Jason Licht, though; to me he's proven to be one of the worst GMs in the NFL.

I think Arians is a mad genius. The problem is he might be more mad than genius. Some of his decision making on the field leaves heads scratching. Now you match him w/Jameis. Whose decision making on the field leaves heads scratching. This hire could be genius. It could be mad.

[damientheomen3]

Cleveland promotes Kitchens and Denver hires Fangio. I think Cleveland's taking a big chance here, the amount of times a player or scheme has looked amazing early on only to be 'figured out' by defensive coaches is innumerable, so in that sense going with someone that has less than a full season of play-calling is a huge risk. Hell, Jim Bob Cooter looked like he would be on the fast track for a head coaching job early on in his run as Detroit's OC, now he's unemployed.

My other take here is that Gregg Williams had that defense playing on its head. I watched a really in-depth video outlining how well Williams uses Jabrill Peppers as a swiss-army knife, and how that creative use has allowed Cleveland to make big strides on that side of the ball. Not endorsing Williams for the job, but his loss stings for the team and they have to make sure they get a strong coordinator for that defense.

I've seen many times over the years that Fangio is an amazing play-caller and well-respected coach that just doesn't interview well, limiting his ability to land a head coaching job. As far as I know, Fangio is mainly known for productive, exotic blitzing schemes. Denver doesn't necessarily need that with their talent up front (assuming they're not moving Von Miller), they need to develop their secondary and improve at inside linebacker. Fangio did have Kyle Fuller and Bryce Callahan play the best football of their lives, and probably played a big hand in Eddie Jackson's development, so I think there's hope for him to turn that defense back around quickly.

I've always felt Kubiak was somewhat overrated as a coach. Still, I think him becoming Denver OC is a good fit if Keenum is still the QB. Keenum is a strong play-action QB and that's the most important part of Kubiak's offense. They certainly have the RB talent necessary to make play-action effective if Lindsay is ready to go for the start of next season.

Now, here's hoping the Jets can land Gase or Monken!

[damientheomen3]

Yes!!!

[damientheomen3]

On to my thoughts on recent hirings.

I stated multiple times I hoped the Jets hired Adam Gase or Todd Monken. I'm ecstatic they were able to bring in the former. Supposedly reactions from the fanbase have been negative (I don't social media at all but have seen that that is apparently the case in a couple of articles), which is a strong sign for the hiring. Gase received a lot of praise from Peyton Manning when he was the OC in Denver, and piloted Jay Cutler to a season of actually looking like a legit QB while extending Josh McCown's career by a half decade in his time in Chicago. In Miami he was working with extremely limited resources, including Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, who missed nearly half his tenure with injury and was half-effective in the games he did play with less serious injuries. The supposed clashes with Jarvis Landry were concerning, but Landry seems to be becoming something of a diva receiver. In short, I have absolute faith that Gase can build this offense around Sam Darnold to push the Jets to the forefront of the division in the near future.

Supposedly he is bringing on Dowell Logains as his OC (afaik Gase will call plays) and Gregg Williams as the DC. Williams has done a good job at his last few stops but goes into the beginning of his stint with a pretty bare cupboard. The Jets need to land an elite pass rusher at 3 (although I believe they'll trade down since they lack a second round pick) to fit Williams' heavy blitzing scheme.

The Bengals are believed to be signing Rams quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor to be the new head coach. This one has me firmly believing that one of these new, young coaches will burst the bubble of young offensive head coaches, and considering Cincinnati's long-running ineptitude prior to bringing in Marvin Lewis, it could very well be this one.

The Dolphins are believed to have pegged Patriots defensive playcaller Brian Flores as their next coach. Considering Flores is a young defensive coach, I'm sure idiots on twitter are roasting the Dolphins for it. From what I've read, Flores has a ton of respect in coaching circles, has been a leader at every level of his football involvement, and was believed by Bill Belichick to be someone that would rise to a head position sooner than later. I'm interested to see how this one plays out in the long term.

In coordinator news, the Cardinals hired Vance Joseph to be the DC. I'd be concerned if I was a Cardinals fan. Joseph was a fast riser, with only one season of DC experience in Miami before going to Denver as the HC. He then proceeded to turn one of the NFL's perennial top defenses into a below-average unit last season despite a terrific pass rush. Not a great start for Kingsbury imo.

The Browns are believed to be signing Steve Wilks as the DC. Wilks is respected for his ability to coach defensive backs, but it was his disinterest in finding a way to use Tyrann Mathieu that led Steve Keim to let his best draft pick walk. It'll be interesting to see what Wilks can do with Jabrill Peppers, another swiss-army-knife type, or if he's gonna just pigeonhole him into one role. I also would have liked Freddie Kitchens to get someone with more leadership experience for that role, but there are only so many of those coaches out there.

Quick hits on these last two. Greg Roman becomes the Ravens OC, replacing Marty Mornhinweg. Roman has shown the ability to get a lot out of a good running QB before but those 49ers teams shot themselves in the foot at times. Chuck Pagano will be replacing Vic Fangio as DC in Chicago. I think Pagano would have been a nice hire for Arizona or Cleveland considering the youth of their head coaches, but he clears a path for himself back to head coaching by taking the most desirable DC job in football.

[damientheomen3]

AB to the Raiders. It's an interesting move to be sure, especially considering the Raiders gave up a 3 and a 5 for him after giving up a 3 for Martavis Bryant during the previous draft. He'll also be reveiving a 3 year deal that puts him slightly over OBJ in terms of AAV.

On the one hand, the surplus of early round picks made the Raiders able to easily give up these picks. And of course, that's ignoring the nonsensical way NFL teams value draft picks to begin with. And this all fits in-line with Gruden's 'build for Vegas' strategy. But, I'm also thinking, Gruden has been known to chew out his players early and often. How is AB gonna respond to that the third or fourth time it happens? If his issue really is that he doesn't want his QB getting preferential treatment, I guess that won't be the issue, as Derek Carr/Kyler Murray will get chewed out plenty as well.

I've always been partial to Brown despite his being a headcase. I happened to catch his last college game at Central Michigan where he broke some NCAA single season or career record, and then recognized his name when he was putting up numbers in year 2 in Pittsburgh. I was hoping the Jets would make a push, but Maccagnan seems allergic to taking any risks (aside from drafting a QB as bad as I am in the second round), an aversion that could cost him his job sooner than later.

[TheMaus2]

watch AB waste away for 2 years before getting traded to an actually good team

[BaseballMan]

Originally Posted by TheMaus2

watch AB waste away for 2 years before getting traded to an actually good team

I dont think so. This is different than when the Raiders got Randy Moss. That team had no qb and the draft picks.
I would have been happy if they only gave up a late first rd pick but to keep all 3 1st rd picks plus 2 next year to get the #1 or #2 receiver in the game. That's a steal.
Carr only threw 2 ints after the 5th game. So getting a guy that rarely drops the ball should help the offense keep the chains moving and in the long run help the defense.
If the raiders gave up the #4 pick then i would have said they lost. Though they could still lose if those draft picks are busts.

[damientheomen3]

If anything it definitely clears Oakland to use all their firsts towards the defense. They need it, that's for sure. The issue for them though is that, post-combine, none of the top corners really fit their range.

I can see them trading back a bit from 4 and grabbing Devin White, but then Murphy, Williams and Baker could all be off the board by their next first rounder. If none of them falls, maybe they can go Ya-Sin or Oruwariye with one of those later firsts, or with their second.

[Cobra Mgr]

I blame a lot of the Steeler problems on Mike Tomlin because he has allowed the students to run the classroom. He has been way too permissive. Maybe the Rooneys have encouraged it.

So for AB to put himself into a position that Tomlin told him he wasn't welcomed to play says something. The Rooneys hurt themselves by saying AB had to go. It lessened what their asking price could be. But I think AB's disruptive behavior wasn't worth his output.

[damientheomen3]

okIt's a hard balance to strike. The issue is that Ben wouldn't get chastized for things that other players would have, but when you have a quarterback who outputs at a franchise quarterback level but maybe isn't always as much of a leader as you need him to be (not to mention the off-the-field stuff with Ben), what can you really do? Ben's one of the couple guys in the NFL that can tell ownership 'it's me or the coach' and wouldn't be laughed out of the room. Peyton Manning wouldn't have done that, Tom Brady meshes well with BB's style, Drew Brees has one of the best play callers in the league as his head coach, and Philip Rivers has already had a revolving door of coaches. But I wouldn't put it past Ben to do that if he wasn't happy with Tomlin, so I can understand his hesitancy to not push his QB.

All-in-all, I fall in Larry Fitzgerald's camp as far as AB is concerned. Things don't always look so rosy when you're not playing with an all-time quarterback.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by BaseballMan

I dont think so. This is different than when the Raiders got Randy Moss. That team had no qb and the draft picks.
I would have been happy if they only gave up a late first rd pick but to keep all 3 1st rd picks plus 2 next year to get the #1 or #2 receiver in the game. That's a steal.
Carr only threw 2 ints after the 5th game. So getting a guy that rarely drops the ball should help the offense keep the chains moving and in the long run help the defense.
If the raiders gave up the #4 pick then i would have said they lost. Though they could still lose if those draft picks are busts.

Brown is going to be 31. He wasn't the best WR on the Steelers, he certainly is not 1 or 2 in the league. Don't live in the past. He's been out of the game an entire year and has lost a few steps.

But not a bad deal for the Raiders. He's still a very good WR, just don't expect what you saw 3-5 years ago.

[damientheomen3]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Brown is going to be 31. He wasn't the best WR on the Steelers, he certainly is not 1 or 2 in the league. Don't live in the past. He's been out of the game an entire year and has lost a few steps.

But not a bad deal for the Raiders. He's still a very good WR, just don't expect what you saw 3-5 years ago.

You might be putting Brown and Le'veon Bell together. He just led the league in touchdown receptions despite being a fairly small receiver. His size has been the knock against his claim to the best receiver in the game, but he remained incredibly productive this past season, and just tied the record for most 100 reception seasons while setting the record for longest streak of consecutive 100 reception seasons.

Of course, he hasn't looked nearly as good with anyone but Ben throwing him the ball, but his ability to get open considering all the defensive attention he faced is pretty damn good. Even when he loses a step, strong route runners tend to age well when they aren't guys that rely on their size (Steve Smith for example).

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

okIt's a hard balance to strike. The issue is that Ben wouldn't get chastized for things that other players would have, but when you have a quarterback who outputs at a franchise quarterback level but maybe isn't always as much of a leader as you need him to be (not to mention the off-the-field stuff with Ben), what can you really do? Ben's one of the couple guys in the NFL that can tell ownership 'it's me or the coach' and wouldn't be laughed out of the room. Peyton Manning wouldn't have done that, Tom Brady meshes well with BB's style, Drew Brees has one of the best play callers in the league as his head coach, and Philip Rivers has already had a revolving door of coaches. But I wouldn't put it past Ben to do that if he wasn't happy with Tomlin, so I can understand his hesitancy to not push his QB.

I know ppl put a lot of value on a franchise QB. While they may have more leverage than others, it is still limited when compared to the owner. That's where management steps in. I definitely understand Tomlin's position because he has to deal w/Ben's popularity, plus being a black man in charge. I know the tightrope he must walk. But good organizations have a defined hierarchy. Not a dictatorship. But a firm chain of command. And when management says publicly that Ben can say whatever he wants, they have put a break in that chain. And they have undercut Tomlin.

Tomlin, for his part, has to step up for his position. Bell, Brown, Ben & Villanueva have all undercut Tomlin's authority at some point or another and put personal interests over the team's. That is not acceptable and cannot go unaddressed. Tomlin's philosophy is to let men be men. That mantra has, and should have, limits. Being a player's coach can only go so far. Pittsburgh needs to eject all of that bull. There is room to allow frank constructive criticism that goes both ways. But at the end of the day, it needs to be clear that coach has the final word.

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Brown is going to be 31. He wasn't the best WR on the Steelers, he certainly is not 1 or 2 in the league. Don't live in the past. He's been out of the game an entire year and has lost a few steps.

But not a bad deal for the Raiders. He's still a very good WR, just don't expect what you saw 3-5 years ago.

AB played 15 games this season and had a career high 15 TD's.

Are you thinking of Bell? He skipped the season.

[damientheomen3]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

I know ppl put a lot of value on a franchise QB. While they may have more leverage than others, it is still limited when compared to the owner. That's where management steps in. I definitely understand Tomlin's position because he has to deal w/Ben's popularity, plus being a black man in charge. I know the tightrope he must walk. But good organizations have a defined hierarchy. Not a dictatorship. But a firm chain of command. And when management says publicly that Ben can say whatever he wants, they have put a break in that chain. And they have undercut Tomlin.

Tomlin, for his part, has to step up for his position. Bell, Brown, Ben & Villanueva have all undercut Tomlin's authority at some point or another and put personal interests over the team's. That is not acceptable and cannot go unaddressed. Tomlin's philosophy is to let men be men. That mantra has, and should have, limits. Being a player's coach can only go so far. Pittsburgh needs to eject all of that bull. There is room to allow frank constructive criticism that goes both ways. But at the end of the day, it needs to be clear that coach has the final word.

I agree with you for the most part, but it can be extremely difficult for a coach to change their mantra to the same group of players and have them fully buy in. I think the Seahawks are a good example of that, a bunch of players said the coaching was getting stale and then the team let a lot of the core go and found success again.

I just feel like, for a player's coach to succeed long-term with a franchise that has a true franchise quarterback, that quarterback has to be at least as much of a tone-setter as the coach, if not more. As far as I know, Tony Dungy was a player's coach, but through Pat McAfee's awesome podcast, we can get a great idea of how much Peyton Manning meant to the long-term culture of success in Indy. In a game where ego is a nearly a necessity to have elite success at a lot of positions, a player's coach is ripe to be stepped all over without the proper structure of player leadership.

For the Steelers' sake, maybe having Bell and Brown out of town will help shape up the locker room, and maybe it'll open Tomlin's eyes to holding Ben more accountable, but considering the fire he and Colbert are probably feeling for mismanaging Brown's whims to the point of having to take pennies on the dollar for him, we'll see if he can really do that.

[damientheomen3]

Also, on the Osemele-to-the-Jets front, I think moving down from the 5th to the 6th is a great price to pay considering the upside if he has a bounceback year. I won't pretend to know how his big contract is structured, but considering most long deals are essentially free releases in the last year, I'd imagine they can cut bait easily if he doesn't play well. This also alleviates concerns I had that the Jets were set to overpay for Roger Saffold.

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

If anything it definitely clears Oakland to use all their firsts towards the defense. They need it, that's for sure. The issue for them though is that, post-combine, none of the top corners really fit their range.

I can see them trading back a bit from 4 and grabbing Devin White, but then Murphy, Williams and Baker could all be off the board by their next first rounder. If none of them falls, maybe they can go Ya-Sin or Oruwariye with one of those later firsts, or with their second.

There biggest need is a real coach. Not one who was out of football nine years and during his tenure at ESPN never had anything interesting or original to say.

Last season when I did my pre season betting I took every Oakland under I could find and I cleaned up. I don't know a whole lot about football but when I read some of his comments after being hired I knew they would be a dumpster fire and I was correct.

[BaseballMan]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Brown is going to be 31. He wasn't the best WR on the Steelers, he certainly is not 1 or 2 in the league. Don't live in the past. He's been out of the game an entire year and has lost a few steps.

But not a bad deal for the Raiders. He's still a very good WR, just don't expect what you saw 3-5 years ago.

Huh?
Other than Odell Beckham theres no one that compares to him. Juju was able to get 100 catches because of Brown and Brown still got over 100 receptions. You can question his attitude but i dont think you can question that he is at this point the #1 or #2 receiver in the game.

[damientheomen3]

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

There biggest need is a real coach. Not one who was out of football nine years and during his tenure at ESPN never had anything interesting or original to say.

Last season when I did my pre season betting I took every Oakland under I could find and I cleaned up. I don't know a whole lot about football but when I read some of his comments after being hired I knew they would be a dumpster fire and I was correct.

It's one of those things where the media people that were older football heads overrated the hire and since then everyone's jumping on the chance to talk bad about him. I don't think he's done awful so far. The team was competitive in many games considering the state of their roster, and even with Khalil Mack they had no chance of making Vegas' projection of 8.5 wins I think it was. At least they have the picks to remake the team in Gruden's image, for better or worse.

Originally Posted by BaseballMan

Huh?
Other than Odell Beckham theres no one that compares to him. Juju was able to get 100 catches because of Brown and Brown still got over 100 receptions. You can question his attitude but i dont think you can question that he is at this point the #1 or #2 receiver in the game.

I'd still put Julio Jones over AB as well, and could see Tyreek Hill potentially passing him up soon as well with that plus-plus athleticism. Like I said, we'll see how he does now that his QB is down a tier.