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Old 12-03-2018, 05:38 AM   #21
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What I'd like to know is how a guy with three good pitches -- one of them a knuckle curve -- gets a 2 in movement when all three of those pitches are above average.

I realize it may be semantics, but one of my long-running criticisms of the game has been about this very issue: If your movement is next to nothing, you can't have above-average off-speed pitches. You probably can't have above-average fastballs either.

The two go hand-in-hand in real life, but apparently not in this game.
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Old 12-03-2018, 06:27 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ConStar View Post
What I'd like to know is how a guy with three good pitches -- one of them a knuckle curve -- gets a 2 in movement when all three of those pitches are above average.

I realize it may be semantics, but one of my long-running criticisms of the game has been about this very issue: If your movement is next to nothing, you can't have above-average off-speed pitches. You probably can't have above-average fastballs either.

The two go hand-in-hand in real life, but apparently not in this game.
Well, the problem is that maybe we haven't named movement very well in-game. We've talked about finding a different name for it at times, but it's hard to find something that's actually better.

Movement is not really a direct representation of how much actual physical movement a pitchers pitches have on them. If anything, stuff more directly correlates to that, or a combination of stuff and movement.

Long story short, movement is basically HR rate. So even for some pitchers in real life who typically have great physical movement on their pitches, but who tend to be a bit HR prone, their in-game movement ratings might be somewhat pedestrian. Clayton Kershaw would be a good real life example of this.

I guess this happens in reality because they throw too many bad pitches that get whacked, even when the majority of their pitches are hard to square up. So for better or worse, the movement rating is kind of what reflects that in-game.
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Old 12-03-2018, 07:06 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
Well, the problem is that maybe we haven't named movement very well in-game. We've talked about finding a different name for it at times, but it's hard to find something that's actually better.

Movement is not really a direct representation of how much actual physical movement a pitchers pitches have on them. If anything, stuff more directly correlates to that, or a combination of stuff and movement.

Long story short, movement is basically HR rate. So even for some pitchers in real life who typically have great physical movement on their pitches, but who tend to be a bit HR prone, their in-game movement ratings might be somewhat pedestrian. Clayton Kershaw would be a good real life example of this.

I guess this happens in reality because they throw too many bad pitches that get whacked, even when the majority of their pitches are hard to square up. So for better or worse, the movement rating is kind of what reflects that in-game.
Spin-Rate. spin rpm etc etc.. then relative to each pitch as far as how that actually influences results based on real-life data.

things we can't see may make that incongruent, but seems like that is what 'movement' is in ootp and how it is used as a factor for various things.

not only that, it's a rising buzz-word in baseball. not that that should override reality of the situation/context of ootp -- may not be representative of 'spin rate' at all or other issues due to how movement is used in game.

i see what constar is saying.. it makes sense as far as words used in the game. i think it's just inevitable issue/problem. there are multiple factors involved and ootp may not have whittled them down to their absolute most basic and exclusive forces. (like how you solve a physics problem).

i think movement encapsulates a few factors and that's why it can't sound right -- 'sounds right' != reality or necessarily right, but logicall sound as far as function and use in caclculating results of a simulation. it's just how the various forces have been defined and packaged together.

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Old 12-04-2018, 12:22 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
Well, the problem is that maybe we haven't named movement very well in-game. We've talked about finding a different name for it at times, but it's hard to find something that's actually better.

Movement is not really a direct representation of how much actual physical movement a pitchers pitches have on them. If anything, stuff more directly correlates to that, or a combination of stuff and movement.

Long story short, movement is basically HR rate. So even for some pitchers in real life who typically have great physical movement on their pitches, but who tend to be a bit HR prone, their in-game movement ratings might be somewhat pedestrian. Clayton Kershaw would be a good real life example of this.

I guess this happens in reality because they throw too many bad pitches that get whacked, even when the majority of their pitches are hard to square up. So for better or worse, the movement rating is kind of what reflects that in-game.

I would encourage you to think about three of the four main ratings, as they might need to all be tweaked a bit in what they're called or what they mean. Only the "Control" rating seems both self-explanatory and also accurate in the context of both the game and real-life situations.


Three of those, the "Stuff" rating, the "Movement" rating and the pitch velocity rating, all end up fighting for two plates at the dinner table. I'll give you some examples:


I've got a guy that has a "Stuff" rating of 13 (1-20 scale) but has a velocity rating of over 100 mph, and a decent off-speed pitch. In real life, that guy is going to strike out a metric ton of hitters. But strikeouts seem completely tied to the "Stuff" rating in this game, so he doesn't have impressive numbers.


Somewhere in there is an internal calculation I'm not privy to; "Stuff", to me, is a combination of movement, control, velocity and the knowledge of how to pitch. But it is primarily velocity, with movement second and the other two factors well back in third and fourth places. However, the game already has velocity and the "Movement" rating separated. So that would leave "Stuff" to be some combination of knowledge, the sheer number of different pitches the guy is able to throw and how well those individual pitches can be thrown.


As an experiment, I made a fictitious player who could throw only one pitch, a fastball. I gave him the highest velocity setting I could give him. I think his "Stuff" rating topped out at 9 or 10 (on a 20 scale).



I'm not sure this could easily be done, but if I could wave a wand over this situation, I'd have "Control" remain exactly as is, then have "Stuff" combine the player's Intelligence rating, the current "Movement" rating, and well back in third place, the number of different pitches he can throw and their ratings. For the third category, I'd have it be "Velocity of Non-Breaking Pitches," meaning the max velocity of fastballs, sinkers and/or cutters, whatever the guy's top "fast" pitch happened to be. I would then give this category minor interplay with the "Stuff" category. I have a very effective reliever who throws only a fastball and a cutter, and he has a "Stuff" rating of 18 (on a 20 scale) despite not having an off-speed pitch.
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Old 12-04-2018, 08:39 PM   #25
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The Lyerly Clone Project

So, when I first started this thread my reasons were pretty simple really:
1- I wanted to share something/someone I found fascinating.
2- I wanted some feedback regarding this particular combination of ratings and scouting forecast.
3- I hoped that there might be some sharing of anecdotes regarding players similar to this that you might all have seen in OOTP and how that worked out.

So, basically 1 and 2 worked out but not so much with 3.

Given that, and having thought a bit more about this, I decided to try another approach that might be fun. (If you think I use the word fun a bit excessively around here, that's okay. But, from my perspective, this is a game, an innocuous way of passing time pleasurably, a past-time. And therefore, if it's not fun, why do it?)

Here is my new plan, already well under way. I decided to create a number of pitchers who are virtual clones of Harry Lyerly and set them loose in one of my leagues/saves that I rarely return to. The save I chose is an historic random debut league. I advanced it forward a few decades to the time period that the WPK is set in so that the statistical environment would be at least somewhat similar to the one that Harry Lyerly is entering in the WPK universe.

A few notes about the clones: they are not exact clones for a number of reasons. The most important probably is that I refuse to peek behind the curtains to look up Lyerly's ratings in the editor. So this is all based upon the best information I currently have about Lyerly from the scouting departments. I have tried to make them as similar to Lyerly as possible though, including sharing his size, his handedness, his batting abilities, even his birthday (with some adjustments explained below.)So they enter this test universe at Lyerly's current age and stage of development, more of less with his current ratings. The less part is in the area of stuff. I can't seem to find a way to keep everything else correct and get the clones stuff up to the 10/10 (again, using a 1-10 rating system) without inflating some other area of his ratings (particularly boosting his 3 main pitches). So, if anything, these clones are mostly slightly Lyerly-light.

And they are not all exact clones of each other either. Though the variations are small and subtle. And mostly just there due to some variability in what might be for Lyerly, especially given that I am not in possession of all the behind-the-scenes facts. So, some might have a bit more potential for movement, or a bit more potential for good control, or a bit better chance of seeing his third pitch, the knuckle curve, develop to its full potential. And generally with some corresponding deficits too, compared to what we see of Harry Lyerly's ratings, beyond the already somewhat under-powered stuff ratings.

The method I am using is to insert 5 clones in for the upcoming draft every 5 years and simming five years at a time.

At this point there are 10 Lyerly clones in the league. The first 5 now mostly have 7-9 seasons in the majors, partial or full, under their belts.

And so far, this is what has happened.
Nobody totally sucks, nobody is all that good. (I guess depending upon your definition of the terms.) Though most of the first 5 are currently, at the age of 32, trending in the wrong direction. One of them improved quite a bit at year 10 of the experiment from where he was at the 5 year mark.
And one of them, the first clone I created, and probably the one who most closely mirrored Lyerly's ratings at creation, while having pretty mediocre career stats, had a quite nice three year stretch from age 26-28 and was named to the All-Star team in one of those seasons.

It's a bit early to reach many conclusions about the second wave of players, but interestingly the one with the highest overall ratings has been turned into a closer and another- on the same team, the Los Angeles Dodgers- seems to be transitioning into a relief role.

Here are some peeks at a few of the first wave clones. Mat Dixon, the first one created (forgot to give him Lyerly's birthday, but he is the same basic age), had the solid 3 season stretch. Josh Raab is the guy trending in the right direction. And Waldis Van Zant is the only one who is in danger at this point of being stuck in the minor leagues as he ages after being pretty decent at the major league level in the early stages of his career. But he is also the clone who has had the most serious injury issues. (I created the players to have quite low injury proneness, but not to be immune from these issues.)
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Old 12-04-2018, 08:39 PM   #26
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And Waldis Van Zant:
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Old 12-04-2018, 08:40 PM   #27
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Soon, tonight, I will be creating the next 5 clones and moving 5 years forward again.
I'll keep you posted.
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Old 12-04-2018, 11:18 PM   #28
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Instead of creating clones to see if Lyerly is worth keeping, how about letting us see how Lyerly does? That was one of the points of the thread
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Old 12-04-2018, 11:44 PM   #29
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Instead of creating clones to see if Lyerly is worth keeping, how about letting us see how Lyerly does? That was one of the points of the thread
Patience grasshopper.
Sorry, I probably should have made more clear that I don't move as fast as some of you in terms of game play. I play out every single game for my team in my W.P. Kinsella league save. So, I will do just that. But it won't happen right away.
In the meantime I thought this might be interesting. If it isn't interesting to you, that's cool.
Feel free to ignore it.
(And I didn't create the clones to see if Lyerly was worth keeping. I'm keeping him, for now, whether he is worth it or not.)

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Old 12-27-2018, 04:17 AM   #30
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So in case anyone is interested, here is what Harry Lyerly's rookie season looked like.

A few notes of context:
The Brewers pitching staff allowed the most HR's of any pitching staff. Then again, they pitch in the best park in the league for HR hitters. So even pitchers with quite good MVT ratings allowed more HR's then one would expect. In fact, Lyerly's HR/9 was not the worst on the team. It was tied for 6th highest on the team.
The Brewers pitching staff was, however, also one of the best, if not the best in the league. They allowed the fewest runs, struck out the most batters, allowed the lowest BABIP, BA, and OBP. While Lyerly came up to the big league club roughly mid-season and therefore had only 18 starts, he ended up with, by a fair margin, the best WAR and rWAR on the pitching staff.

The best K/9 among qualifying pitchers was 8.4. (And second place was 7.6.) Lyerly's K/9, as you can see, was 9.7. In his second WPK start (sorry, the log of games pitched here does not show the first two starts- and that horrible last start is in the World Series, where all of the Brewers pitchers were roughed up as they were swept), Lyerly tied the team single-game record with 12 strikeouts. He would tie it again in a shutout start on 08/14/69 and then set a new team record with 14 on 09/24/69. He also had starts where he struck out 11 and 10 and several where he recorded 9 K's.

He was the only pitcher to get any ROY votes, as he finished, tied with one other player, for a distant 4th in the voting.

Eighteen games is still a small sample size and does not make a career. Still, I'm not sure we would have made it to the post-season without his contributions coming down the stretch, so I'm very glad I kept him. Whether this solid start will prove to an aberration only time will tell.
But so far, he doesn't suck.
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Old 12-27-2018, 04:28 AM   #31
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Hell of a find man. He is doing great. A good #3 SP

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Old 12-27-2018, 06:44 AM   #32
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what are baselines for the league, otherwise it's impossible to make any evaluation on it. 1969 in ootp, not just 1969 in RL too.

i can guarantee that a player recreated in a 2018 league with those ratings could not be even average, which i bet his numbers are ~close to for a weak offensive environment. add 1 to era for a translation to modern e.r.a. once the sample gets larger it'll look worse almost certainly relative to baselines of that league. otherwise you can be nearly certain that the low home run totals in that envirnment marginalizes movement. i'd hope the game doesn't do that intentionally... and if unintentional that's worse.

if that guy has a good career, i'd remove movement column from anything i saw, because in that context it means nothing... you can see why i hope that isn't the case, i hope. kind of a waste of effort to have that rating at all, lol.

edit: oh god, it's 18 games. that information is anecdotaly fun for whomever, but objectively doesn't tell us about whether he'll be successful.

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Old 12-27-2018, 09:08 AM   #33
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It is 18 games, but it's also 141 1/3 innings, with a 79 FIP- and 3.4 WAR, for a 21-year-old rookie. I'm doubtful he'l continue at that pace, but he has plenty of room to regress and still be at least average. It's an impressive beginning.
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Old 12-27-2018, 09:52 AM   #34
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Quote:
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what are baselines for the league, otherwise it's impossible to make any evaluation on it. 1969 in ootp, not just 1969 in RL too.

i can guarantee that a player recreated in a 2018 league with those ratings could not be even average, which i bet his numbers are ~close to for a weak offensive environment. add 1 to era for a translation to modern e.r.a. once the sample gets larger it'll look worse almost certainly relative to baselines of that league. otherwise you can be nearly certain that the low home run totals in that envirnment marginalizes movement. i'd hope the game doesn't do that intentionally... and if unintentional that's worse.

if that guy has a good career, i'd remove movement column from anything i saw, because in that context it means nothing... you can see why i hope that isn't the case, i hope. kind of a waste of effort to have that rating at all, lol.

edit: oh god, it's 18 games. that information is anecdotaly fun for whomever, but objectively doesn't tell us about whether he'll be successful.
As I know I had mentioned in earlier comments in this thread, while the calendar year is 1969, the statistical modifiers are set to MLB 1986. So certainly not the kind of overall HR numbers that we see in today's game, but not terribly depressed totals either. I will be happy to provide more league context later- I was trying not to overload the previous post with context.
And I get the distinct impression that you never very thoroughly read what I write here, or you are just in a hurry to get to make your point. Because I already clearly stated that this was a small sample size. I haven't argued otherwise. This was merely an attempt to follow-up on my earlier promise to share reports along the way. This is the first small portion of that. Take it how you will.

As for league context, some of that can be gleaned from what is posted above. His ERA+, for instance, is 122. Nothing amazing, but clearly above average in league context. (And in case you missed it somehow, the ballpark context for his home games is very favorable to HR hitters. That context is valuable also.)
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Old 12-27-2018, 01:01 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
Well, the problem is that maybe we haven't named movement very well in-game. We've talked about finding a different name for it at times, but it's hard to find something that's actually better.

Movement is not really a direct representation of how much actual physical movement a pitchers pitches have on them. If anything, stuff more directly correlates to that, or a combination of stuff and movement.

Long story short, movement is basically HR rate. So even for some pitchers in real life who typically have great physical movement on their pitches, but who tend to be a bit HR prone, their in-game movement ratings might be somewhat pedestrian. Clayton Kershaw would be a good real life example of this.

I guess this happens in reality because they throw too many bad pitches that get whacked, even when the majority of their pitches are hard to square up. So for better or worse, the movement rating is kind of what reflects that in-game.
i've always like command for this attribute but i understand the confusion that could arrive between that and control. But what about Location as the name for that attribute? It mostly has to do with the pitcher's ability to keep the ball out of the batter's "happy" zone.
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Old 12-27-2018, 02:21 PM   #36
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Not in front of the game right now but was able to pull league totals for 1969 from my thread reporting on this save in the Fictional Simulations subfolder.
This is just the Moonlight Graham League, but as there is no inter-league play in the WPK, this is the relevant data to compare Lyerly to.

If I'm doing my math correctly, the league HR/9 was 0.85. Lyerly's was, of course, 1.0. (Well, really, 0.955 which rounds up to 1.0).
League BB/9 was 3.4. Lyerly's was 3.0. A bit better than league average and it should be noted that Lyerly is expected to develop a good deal more control over time.
League K/9 was 5.78. Lyerly's 9.7 is clearly well above league average.

League ERA was 3.61. I think it is fair to say that Lyerly's 2.99 is certainly better than close to average. (And is well supported by his FIP and FIP-.)
League batting average was .247. That one unfortunately I can't compare right now as I don't have Lyerly's batting average against in front of me. But that league average is admittedly quite a bit lower than the MLB overall batting average of 1986, the year upon which statistical modifiers for this WPK season were based.
League BABIP was .274. Lyerly's BABIP against was .280. So no particular clue to any undue good luck on his part.

It should be noted that he pitched in front of the best defense in the league, so that certainly likely skews his numbers a bit in his favor. Then again, he will continue to pitch in front of this great defense, so that isn't necessarily evidence that he can't maintain his present level of success.
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Old 01-06-2019, 04:59 PM   #37
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Now that Lyerly's second big league season is well under way and he is up to 30 starts in his career, I thought I would give an update.
As you will see below, his K/9 numbers are down from his first season, but so are his BB/9 and especially his HR/9.
Overall, pretty consistent results from year 1 to year 2 thus far. He leads the league in K/9, is tied with his teammate, who is a 2-time Pitcher of the Year and the highest paid player in the league, in WAR for pitchers, is second to that same teammate in FIP, 2nd in total K's behind another 2-time Pitcher of the Year who has 3 more starts than Lyerly at this point, he's tied for 2nd in Wins and tied for 1st in shutouts, is 4th in K/BB, 3rd in ERA+, 5th in rWAR, 7th in WHIP.

As you can see his FIP- is an impressive 69.
At what point are these numbers safely not a fluke?

(Some league context also provided below. If I've calculated correctly it looks like league HR/9 is 0.9 (0.85 rounded up), BB/9 is 3.3 and K/9 is 5.6. League ERA is 3.58 and league BABIP is .275.)
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Old 01-26-2019, 07:42 PM   #38
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Second season, first full season, in the books.

So, this will be my last report about Harry Lyerly in this thread.
You will find screenshots of his second season- his first full season as a big leaguer- below.
If anyone wishes to follow the rest of his career feel free to follow along here: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=289570

I'm going to answer my original question (which was probably a bit more rhetorical then some people took it here.) The answer, I think, is that almost all rules have exceptions.

As you will see below, Lyerly followed up his impressive rookie campaign with a superb sophomore season. He essentially became the staff ace. He finished first in the league in strikeouts and K/9 (both easily) in K/BB and also in shutouts, tied for second in wins, was second in WHIP and opponents batting average, third best in FIP , rWAR, and complete games. He finished fourth in ERA, ERA+, WAR (among pitchers), and winning percentage. He had the sixth best quality starts total.

On the final day of the season, with the team 1 game ahead of the second place challenger and needing a win to guarantee a return trip to the World Series, Lyerly was called on to get it done. And get it done he did. He held the potent San Francisco Velocity offense to 3 hits, getting his 7th complete game shutout of the season, striking out 7 and walking 2.

His best game of the season came on September 14th, when he hurled a 3-hit shutout, striking out 14 (a feat he has now accomplished 5 times in his Brewers career- 5 more than any other Brewer pitcher has), while walking just 1. (The 94 game score this game earned was the 2nd best on the season in the WPK- the best being a 95 score no-hitter with 9 K's and only 1 walk.)
His worst game- the kind of game that so many thought might be the norm for him- came on June 23rd when he allowed 6 HR's in one game, including 2 by the opposing pitcher, while giving up 8 runs on 12 hits in only 4 innings pitched. But that was the anomaly, not the norm.

Overall, Lyerly was slightly better in HR/9 than his rookie season, quite a bit better in BB/9 and had a slightly lower K/9. His FIP and FIP- were both better even then his very good rookie season numbers. Also significant is that his GB% was higher than his rookie season, which could bode well for him in the future if this trend continues. His BABIP was lower than his rookie season but given his other peripherals I don't see this as an indication of luck being a huge factor (somewhat of a factor, perhaps, but it needs to be remembered that he pitches in front of the best defense in the league also.)

Will he continue this in the future? Well, that is not something that can ever be foretold, is it. But indications are good that he might, especially given that his third pitch is still developing as is his control and even possibly his movement.
One thing I can say for certain- I'm awfully glad I didn't listen to those who said I should trade this guy away.
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Old 01-27-2019, 05:56 AM   #39
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To me the main thing to keep in mind about Harry Lyerly is that he is interesting as hell. From the beginning you have asked yourself many questions about him and his future, even reaching out to the community for opinions and thoughts.

This is part of what makes the game so fun, the intangible part that draws you in. The excitement about a fictional player that becomes however "real" you want them to be. From the exercise we have just gone through with Harry to creating entire stories surrounding either individual players, teams, leagues, worlds or more!

Concerning my experience with a player template of Harry's type, assuming you have poor movement, it is essential to have near to or topped out Stuff, minimum above average control (so as to minimize hr damage). Pitch speed as it develops you hope it maxes out. As far as pitches are concerned, the 4-seam fastball (aka Fastball in OOTP) is usually a default main pitch given to you of course. Hope for groundball pitches. 2-seam fastball (sinker), slider, curveball, split-finger, change up (including circle change) are good ones. In our template ideally you would like to see at least 2 near to or topped out pitches and at least one other average or better pitch.

The build you saw with Harry was actually right in line with this template. As he grows your first hope is for his movement to increase to at least average. Barring that, hope for his control to max out to his potential as well as his knuckle curve if possible (but we don't want to be too greedy). Even if he stays where he is I believe that he will have a fine career barring I#@%!Y (that is a dirty - 6 letter should not be uttered in polite or otherwise conversation - word).

Last of all, why in hell would you even entertain the thought to trade this guy anyway? Again, this is a game, the idea is to have fun and enjoy ourselves. We look for outliers like Harry all the time and say "How will he turn out?" They don't come around that often. When they do, run with them! Or not, your choice. From what I have read of your posts I believe you may think a little bit like I do. At least about this.

Enjoy...and I will be watching the Denver Brewers!
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Old 01-27-2019, 09:33 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Palaaemon View Post
To me the main thing to keep in mind about Harry Lyerly is that he is interesting as hell. From the beginning you have asked yourself many questions about him and his future, even reaching out to the community for opinions and thoughts.

This is part of what makes the game so fun, the intangible part that draws you in. The excitement about a fictional player that becomes however "real" you want them to be. From the exercise we have just gone through with Harry to creating entire stories surrounding either individual players, teams, leagues, worlds or more!

Concerning my experience with a player template of Harry's type, assuming you have poor movement, it is essential to have near to or topped out Stuff, minimum above average control (so as to minimize hr damage). Pitch speed as it develops you hope it maxes out. As far as pitches are concerned, the 4-seam fastball (aka Fastball in OOTP) is usually a default main pitch given to you of course. Hope for groundball pitches. 2-seam fastball (sinker), slider, curveball, split-finger, change up (including circle change) are good ones. In our template ideally you would like to see at least 2 near to or topped out pitches and at least one other average or better pitch.

The build you saw with Harry was actually right in line with this template. As he grows your first hope is for his movement to increase to at least average. Barring that, hope for his control to max out to his potential as well as his knuckle curve if possible (but we don't want to be too greedy). Even if he stays where he is I believe that he will have a fine career barring I#@%!Y (that is a dirty - 6 letter should not be uttered in polite or otherwise conversation - word).

Last of all, why in hell would you even entertain the thought to trade this guy anyway? Again, this is a game, the idea is to have fun and enjoy ourselves. We look for outliers like Harry all the time and say "How will he turn out?" They don't come around that often. When they do, run with them! Or not, your choice. From what I have read of your posts I believe you may think a little bit like I do. At least about this.

Enjoy...and I will be watching the Denver Brewers!
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This mirrors very much my own theory on why Lyerly has been successful so far and why he might be for at least a few years if not more. My sense always with this player was that he likely had a very high potential stuff rating. And with him having received several velocity boosts since the time I drafted him, and with his fastball having been very good from the start, I suspect that he may be one of those guys with a stuff rating in the outlier territory (over 200). I refuse to look behind the curtains to see his actual ratings in the editor as this would take some of the fun out of it for me. But given what I suspect is once in a generation stuff and control developing towards excellence, I believe that his weakness for giving up the long ball is pretty well mitigated. When he does give up homers, which he will, they are often of the solo variety. And the more strikeouts he accumulates, the fewer opportunities for hitters to make any contact, let alone power contact. And given that many of the hitters with the best HR power are also prone to striking out, this also is a factor.

Should he develop into more of a groundball pitcher, even more mitigation of his movement troubles.

That's just part of my theory. Getting over a bad cold so brain a bit fuzzy right now. But you pretty much hit on it above.

My expectation is that Lyerly will probably have several good years ahead of him. But I also expect that if and when the time comes that his stuff starts to drop and if he ends up having control that isn't as good as currently projected (or as currently trending) the drop off could come quick and be pretty brutal.

Regardless, it should be a fun ride.

Last edited by BirdWatcher; 01-27-2019 at 09:39 AM.
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