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Old 09-04-2019, 07:52 AM   #41
CeeBod
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Thanks for the interesting read, which I stumbled across while looking for the answer to a completely different question, as is usually the way!


I actually have a similar example where I went the other way in my current game: Tommy Thorpe a 1-star pitcher I had as roster filler at AAA suddenly had a breakthrough in his age 28 season and magically transformed into a 5-star ace with unhittable stuff and 5 good pitches (including a maxxed out change up) but his movement was poor.


I called him up and in the 2021 season he set the team record for striking out 15 in a game, but he was tagged for big home runs often enough that I felt like I wasn't getting the production that you'd expect from a guy that every scout thought was an ace, so I traded him away part way through the 2022 season for 2 good pitching prospects (one of whom became an excellent mid-rotation guy) a middle infielder I flipped for other prospects and a long-shot that didn't amount to anything - so I feel like I got decent value from the trade.


Here's the player I traded away some time later, and based on him having a career ERA+ of 93, a career ERA of 4.80, and leading the league twice in HRs given up, I feel like I made the right choice!





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BirdWatcher (09-07-2019)
Old 10-02-2019, 08:00 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kjb023 View Post
There's no hard and fast rule that says he's gonna fail just because of low movement. Best way to find out is to call him up and see what happens...
Especially with really high stuff. It should be that way. High K pitchers have historically given up more home runs they are usually with no one on base. Nolan Ryan has the 10th most grand slams given up.
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Old 10-02-2019, 08:12 PM   #43
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I look at like this.

All of these can work. A high walk guy can make it if he doesn't allow hitters to take advantage. A high HR can make it if he doesn't walk much and can strike out people. A low K guy can make, if he keeps the ball in the park, and doesn't walk much.

A moderate movement guy might be a Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens type if he has great stuff and good control. A moderate stuff guy can be more like Maddox or Glavine who won't lead in Ks but don't give up many dingers or walk many. A moderate control guy can make it if the ball stays in the park and he can get above average Ks.

So discarding a guy on moderate movement (low in comparing to an elite pitcher) is like saying I don't Nolan Ryan because he gave up 10 career grand slams. Discarding a moderate stuff guy is like saying I don't want Glavine because he won't lead the league in Ks. Discarding a guy with just moderate control is like saying I don't want Rick Ankiel. ok maybe the last is correct.

Note: I am just saying one rating in the moderate range isn't going to kill a guy, unless you expect to have 5 Justin Verlanders starting for you, he is still a prospect.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:05 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Biggio509 View Post
I look at like this.

All of these can work. A high walk guy can make it if he doesn't allow hitters to take advantage. A high HR can make it if he doesn't walk much and can strike out people. A low K guy can make, if he keeps the ball in the park, and doesn't walk much.

A moderate movement guy might be a Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens type if he has great stuff and good control. A moderate stuff guy can be more like Maddox or Glavine who won't lead in Ks but don't give up many dingers or walk many. A moderate control guy can make it if the ball stays in the park and he can get above average Ks.

So discarding a guy on moderate movement (low in comparing to an elite pitcher) is like saying I don't Nolan Ryan because he gave up 10 career grand slams. Discarding a moderate stuff guy is like saying I don't want Glavine because he won't lead the league in Ks. Discarding a guy with just moderate control is like saying I don't want Rick Ankiel. ok maybe the last is correct.

Note: I am just saying one rating in the moderate range isn't going to kill a guy, unless you expect to have 5 Justin Verlanders starting for you, he is still a prospect.
Well, the guy in question, Harry Lyerly, does indeed strike out a ton of hitters. He has led the league, IIRC, in K/9 pretty much every season he has been in the league. He was the Pitcher of the Year in his first full season. Since then he has been solid but not spectacular and this season he got off to a horrible start but is settling into pretty much league average performance at this time- though again leading in K/9.
He gives up a lot of homers, but thus far not quite as many as one might expect. (Granted, this league is mirrored on MLB in the 70's to early 90's and isn't the homer happy environment we see in the MLB today.)
Early on his control was pretty good but he is starting to have more struggles in that area.

My sense is that he will continue to be a pretty solid mid-rotation guy for at least a few more years but as soon as he sees any dip in stuff he might be toast. But overall, yes, I'm very glad I didn't take the advice of many here that said I should unload him as quickly as possible. That would have been foolish.
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