Does anyone have a spreadsheet or formula for estimating OPS?

captainbuttercream · 02-07-2019, 12:01 PM

I think I have an OK idea just looking at players ratings what their OPS could be but I was wondering if anyone was willing to share a spreadsheet they've made for estimating?

I'd like to be able to get a general idea before dumping a bunch of points on a player, and it would be a good way to test my own judgment.

joehart · 02-08-2019, 01:24 AM

I don't remember seeing one in the forums here. However, someone posted some links on reddit including one to a spreadsheet with formulas incl. predicting hits, doubles, triples, and all the other various stats.

I don't remember if he also adjusted his formulas for ballpark modifications.
I looked at it a while back but decided to start fresh so I could add my weekly seasonal data to my db.

2002halos · 02-08-2019, 01:48 PM

I'm working on this, but it's a slow project. It would be easier in normal environments, but when you throw in such high level competition.....

I've collected data and will be running linear regressions. The slow part is getting the data into meaningful format. Takes about a half an hour to an hour or more per team. (It takes so long because I'm determining the average ratings and park factors faced by each team's players.) I don't really have that kind of time, so I'm going to look for random and/or representative teams to get enough data for a baseline and then keep adding teams for a while until it begins to look like the data has settled on results that don't vary much when new data is added.

I will be testing pitching ratings, batting ratings, park factors and DER and their influence on both OBP and SLG. (Seems to me like separating these to predict and then adding the two predictions together will yield better results than just straight prediction of OPS, and I'd like to know both regardless)

When accomplished, will also predict OPS allowed by pitchers, so doubly useful.

Not certain I want to give away all that hard work to potential competitors, but perhaps I could be persuaded.

<Pion> · 02-08-2019, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2002halos

Not certain I want to give away all that hard work to potential competitors, but perhaps I could be persuaded.

Accept donations!

2002halos · 02-08-2019, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Accept donations!

Certainly!

2002halos · 02-08-2019, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by captainbuttercream

I think I have an OK idea just looking at players ratings what their OPS could be but I was wondering if anyone was willing to share a spreadsheet they've made for estimating?

I'd like to be able to get a general idea before dumping a bunch of points on a player, and it would be a good way to test my own judgment.

BTW, I have a rudimentary (limited data used, so maybe not that accurate yet) ERA predictor for pitchers already.
You can put in expected average ratings for batters and percentage of lefties pitcher will face and get an expected ERA.

I find it helpful in deciding which pitchers to go after, and also use it specifically for deciding who to pitch against key teams in September and October.

It seems to work fairly well... But my new project should obsolete it.

scipper · 02-24-2019, 12:59 PM

I made that post on reddit. You can find it if you go here: https://www.reddit.com/r/OOTP/commen..._perfect_team/ (alternatively, just search my name on /r/ootp). It covers how the game calculates the "expected" numbers in the editor tab, the formulas in the spreadsheets should be very close to the real numbers.

BidPro · 02-27-2019, 12:59 AM

@scipper how long did it take to do this! Wow, now if I understood what it meant. You are awesome!

scipper · 02-27-2019, 09:13 PM

It was pretty quick mostly - a lot of earlier work had been done on these forums that I based things off of.

02-07-2019, 12:01 PM	#1
captainbuttercream Minors (Double A) Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Indiana Posts: 109	Does anyone have a spreadsheet or formula for estimating OPS? I think I have an OK idea just looking at players ratings what their OPS could be but I was wondering if anyone was willing to share a spreadsheet they've made for estimating? I'd like to be able to get a general idea before dumping a bunch of points on a player, and it would be a good way to test my own judgment.

02-08-2019, 01:24 AM	#2
joehart All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 1,131	I don't remember seeing one in the forums here. However, someone posted some links on reddit including one to a spreadsheet with formulas incl. predicting hits, doubles, triples, and all the other various stats. I don't remember if he also adjusted his formulas for ballpark modifications. I looked at it a while back but decided to start fresh so I could add my weekly seasonal data to my db.

02-08-2019, 01:48 PM	#3
2002halos Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Don Julio Club, Big A Posts: 286	I'm working on this, but it's a slow project. It would be easier in normal environments, but when you throw in such high level competition..... I've collected data and will be running linear regressions. The slow part is getting the data into meaningful format. Takes about a half an hour to an hour or more per team. (It takes so long because I'm determining the average ratings and park factors faced by each team's players.) I don't really have that kind of time, so I'm going to look for random and/or representative teams to get enough data for a baseline and then keep adding teams for a while until it begins to look like the data has settled on results that don't vary much when new data is added. I will be testing pitching ratings, batting ratings, park factors and DER and their influence on both OBP and SLG. (Seems to me like separating these to predict and then adding the two predictions together will yield better results than just straight prediction of OPS, and I'd like to know both regardless) When accomplished, will also predict OPS allowed by pitchers, so doubly useful. Not certain I want to give away all that hard work to potential competitors, but perhaps I could be persuaded.

02-24-2019, 12:59 PM	#7
scipper Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 24	I made that post on reddit. You can find it if you go here: https://www.reddit.com/r/OOTP/commen..._perfect_team/ (alternatively, just search my name on /r/ootp). It covers how the game calculates the "expected" numbers in the editor tab, the formulas in the spreadsheets should be very close to the real numbers.

02-27-2019, 12:59 AM	#8
BidPro Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Eastern Washington Posts: 78 Blog Entries: 1	@scipper how long did it take to do this! Wow, now if I understood what it meant. You are awesome!

02-27-2019, 09:13 PM	#9
scipper Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 24	It was pretty quick mostly - a lot of earlier work had been done on these forums that I based things off of.