NFL QB's of the 1st Round...

[The Professor]

Whiling away some time, I decided to check out the state of QBs taken in the first round of the NFL draft since 1970-1995...generally, the reviews (IMHO) aren't so good.

In 1970 two QBs were taken in the first round: Terry Bradshaw of Louisiana Tech and Mike Phipps of Purdue. Of course we all know what kind of success Bradshaw had as the QB of the Steelers dynasty of the 70s, winning 4 Super Bowls. Phipps never panned out for the Browns, bounced around a while and hit his peak by leading the Bears into the playoffs in IIRC 1978 before falling back to earth in '79, out of football not long after. So, 1 for 2 for 1970.

1971 is kind of like 1983 before 1983. Three highly touted QBs came out his year in the first round. Jim Plunkett of Stanford was the #1 overall pick of the Patriots. Archie Manning of Mississippi (Saints) and Dan Pastorini of Santa Clara (Oilers) followed at #2 and #3. Plunkett started well for the Pats, fell off the planet not long after and yet reemerged as the success story of the early 1980s for the Oakland/L.A. Raiders. He was a bust turned success. Manning suffered with some of the worst teams in the NFL in the Big Easy and was washed up by the time he went over to Houston. A wasted talent. Pastorini was never brilliant, but did lead the Oilers into the playoffs during the peak years of the Phillips - Campbell 'Love 'Ya Blue' Era. When Phillips assessed what he felt was the missing ingredient for a Super Bowl run, it was at QB, so Pastorini was done, sent to Oakland and replaced by former Oakland QB Ken Stabler. Slated to start for the 1980 Raiders, he got hurt and was replaced by who? Jim Plunkett. So one might argue that 1971 was 0/3 in the 1st Round, but Plunkett's revival will garner a 1 for 3. No busts, but no legends. Oddly enough, the 3rd and 4th Rounds produced some decent NFL QB's (and arguably the two best of the whole crop) in K-State legend Lynn Dickey(Round 3; Oilers), who lit up the Lambeau endzone for a few years in the early '80s, Augustana passer Ken Anderson (3; Bengals) who led the Bengals to a Super Bowl in 1981 and was among the most accurate passers ever, and Notre Dame star Joe Theismann (4; Redskins) who crafted a very successful career in Washington before LT abruptly ended it.

1972 saw two passers taken in Round 1, but the best of this season's crop came in Round 13!!! Nebraska's Jerry Tagge and Florida's John Reaves were taken in the first round by the Packers and Eagles respectively. They have both been summarily forgotten - and for good reason. San Diego State's Brian Sipe was taken in the 13th Round by the Browns and emerged as a top flight QB in the late '70s-early '80s. He was the triggerman for the 'Kardiac Kids' of that era and will forver be known for throwing the pass on the infamous "Red Right 88" play. He bolted for big bucks in the USFL after 1983 and never returned to the NFL. This is a definite 0/2.

1973 was the year of LSU's Bert Jones, drafted as the heir apparent to Johnny U. in Baltimore. During the Colts successful run in the mid-late '70s under Ted Marchibroda the gifted Jones was well on his way to crafting a great legacy; then came the shoulder injuries, a stint with the Rams and eventual retirement. Super Bowl QB Ron Jaworski was taken by the Rams in Rd.2. Rd.3 saw the selection of Hall of Famer Dan Fouts by the Chargers and Arkansas's Joe Ferguson by the Bills. Not too bad. Jones was the real deal but was ruined by injuries. I say 1/1.

1974 saw no 1st Rounders, but Arizona State's Danny White was taken by Dallas in the 3rd Round. He set most statistical Cowboys passing records prior to Troy Aikman. 0/0

The prize of 1975 was California 'golden boy' Steve Bartkowski, taken #1 overall by the Falcons. "Black Bart" was a talented passer who led the Falcons to their first successes in the late '70s and early '80s. He never had enough talent around him to get to the big dance, but he was a true talent. The Patriots got a deal with 5th Round K-Stater Steve Grogan. Bart was a good, not great, QB. 1/1

1976 was a lean year, but Alabama's Richard Todd looked to be the next in a line of great 'Bama QBs (Starr, Namath) when he was taken in Round 1 by the Jets. He never did live up to Namath's legacy and his best year (1982, led Jets to AFC Championship Game -- "Mud Bowl" and threw 3 picks to A.J.Duhe) was followed by a plague of interception ridden seasons in New York and New Orleans. Todd was an OK passer who just never adjusted to the pro game. 0/1

1977 saw two first rounders. Steve Pisarkiewicz of Mizzou was taken, under dubious advice, by the Cardinals who had Jim Hart at the time. He was a miserable bust. The Vikings saw the heir to Fran Tarkenton in Rice passer Tommy Kramer, who apparently (according to some board members) is a royal @ss and who could pile up yards but also tended to pile up interceptions. Not a bust, but not a great either. Vince Evans of USC taken by the Bears in Round 6 outlasted both of them. 1/2

1978 saw Grambling's Doug Williams taken by the Bucs. Williams led John McKay's team into the playoffs a couple of times, all the way to the NFC Championship in 1979, but ended up bolting to the USFL after a contract dispute (arguable dooming the Bucs to a long run of misery). He resurfaced in 1987 to get a Super Bowl Ring and SB MVP Award with the Skins. Williams was a good NFL QB, a pioneer for black QBs, and it was a pity he missed some seasons in the USFL. 1/1

1979 saw three #1 QBs: Jack Thompson of Washington State was taken by the Bengals and promptly flopped. Morehead State's Phil Simms became the Giants' All-Time leading passer, and Clemson's Steve Fuller's greatest moment was getting to dance around on the Super Bowl shuffle video well after he was judged a backup quality player. 1/3 while the real steal was the 49'ers 3rd Round selection of Notre Dame's Joe Montana.

Two flops from 1980: BYU's Marc Wilson (Raiders fans surely loved this guy who couldn't beat out ancient Jim Plunkett most times) and Arizona State's Mark Malone who couldn't fill the shoes of Terry Bradshaw even after Cliff Stoudt had taken lumps for trying to do so. 0/2.

1981 was a laughable year as California's Rich Campbell was the lone #1 for the Packers. You ask: Rich who? Exactly. Far better was 2nd Rounder Neil Lomax (Portland State) who is probably the best QB ever to play for the Cardinals but who retired early due to an arthritic hip. 0/1

1982 was a 1/2, with Ohio State's Art Schlichter being a magnificent flop before he ever took a snap for the Colts. BYU's Jim McMahon was more personality than passer, but he did win a Super Bowl and set a fashion trend (for at least a while).

1983 saw 4 of the 6 famous first rounders have decent to great careers. Only Eason (Illinois) and Blackledge (Penn St.) flopped. O'Brien was decent for much of the time given his supporting cast and the Jets coaching situation. Marino, Elway and Kelly are all Hall of Famers. 4/6

No #1s in 1984. Maryland's Boomer Esiason was the first QB taken (2nd Round; Bengals). 0/0

Same for 1985, with Randall Cunningham (UNLV) going in Round 2 for the Eagles. 0/0

Two 1st Rounders in 1986. Purdue's Jim Everett (Oilers) ran the gamut from near greatness to abject patheticness while with the Rams. Iowa's Chuck Long was a laughable bust for the Lions. 1/2

1987 saw 4 1st Round QBs. Heisman winner Vinny Testaverde (Miami) was never the guy Tampa thought he'd be, but rebounded to post some good years for the Browns/Ravens and Jets. Kelly Stouffer of Colorado State refused to sign with the Cardinals and was expected to the heir to Dave Krieg in Seattle. He wasn't. Oregon's Chris Miller would have had a good career but for concussions and Michigan's Jim Harbaugh was a decent QB in general. Two 4th Rounders have crafted fine careers, as well: Deleware's Rich Gannon (2002 MVP) and Steve Beuerlein of Notre Dame. Only 1 true bust. 3/4

No #1s in 1988. Washington's Chris Chandler was taken by the Colts in Round 3. 0/0

1989 saw UCLA's Troy Aikman taken by the Cowboys. 1/1

1990 saw Illini star Jeff George gone to the Colts. George has been around, but given his talent, can he be anything but a major bust? 0/1

Two first rounders in 1991: SDSU's Dan McGwire (Mark's brother) was taken as the heir to Dave Krieg (since Stouffer wasn't it). He wasn't it either. Todd Marinovich (USC) was the next great Raider QB. He wasn't. Atlanta's #2 pick, So.Mississippi's Brett Favre wasn't going to be the guy according to Jerry Glanville. He is a Hall of Famer. 0/2

1992: Houston's David Klinger and UCLA's Tommy Maddox were both busts, but given Maddox's comeback, this verdict might change. 6th Rounder Jeff Blake of ECU was the best in this crop. 0/2

1993 saw Washington State's Drew Bledsoe taken. He has been a good, sometimes great, sometimes not QB. Took his Patriots to two Superbowls (he won the AFC title game in 2001). Should lead Bills back to playoffs in future. Rick Mirer (Notre Dame) was taken as the heir to Dave Krieg in Seattle (since Stouffer and McGwire weren't it). He appeared to finally be it, but he wasn't. 5th Rounder Mark Brunell of Washington was the real steal of the draft. 1/2

1994 saw Heath Shuler (UT) and Trent Dilfer (Fresno St.) go 1-2. Shuler was a huge bust. Dilfer wasn't half the QB he might have been, but has a Super Bowl ring. 1/2

1995 McNair and Kerry Collins taken in Round 1. McNair has been the franchise since he was taken. Collins has done well to resurrect the promising career he almost tanked in Carolina. 2/2

[blubbla]

Good analysis, although I disagree on the Jeff George point. Yes, he never turned into the player we thought he'd be, but he at least was a regular, so judging by the other QB's rated, I don't see how you can label him a complete bust.

[The Professor]

Fair nuff...though, I rate George a bust because he was such a phenomenal talent. I guess that is harsh, though.

[Steve Kuffrey]

Nice job...I'd say George was a HUGE bust simply on his attitude, what an AZZ. I suffered with him playing in Atlanta....

[blubbla]

We can also come to a conclusion about 1997.

Only 1st Rounder: Jim Druckenmiller. BUST.

[The Professor]

Yesssirr! I had that in originally, as I ran the course from 1970 all the way to 2002, but I overstepped the character limit

Druckenmiller was a really strange choice by the 49'ers. He was a big guy, pocket passer, not the prototype for a West Coast QB. Obviously, he didn't fit in to the Niners plans as he was gone after a very short stay.

[blubbla]

Would it be fair to say Jeff George creates the borderline between made it or bust?

[holyroller]

Excellent post! Great reading although, as a Seahawks fan, very difficult reading as well. No, I don't think Hasselbach is guy either. He has a chance, but one hot streak does not a QB make.

[The Professor]

The Seahawks and Cardinals are the two teams that come to mind, when thinking about the lineage of franchise QBs, as teams that have really been missing the boat. Obviously the Moon years in Seattle brought some successes, but by the late '90s, Moon wasn't a long term answer. The worst mistake the Hawks made was letting Krieg go after 1991 as he had at least 4-5 more seasons in him and could have allowed them to groom an heir. As it is, they haven't had a franchise QB since...I used to love the Hawks, but it was funny watching them roll through QB's like a hot knife through butter. Stouffer, McGwire, Gelbaugh, Mirer, Moon*, Kitna, Hasselbach, Dilfer, Huard from 1991-2002 when it was simply Zorn, Krieg from 1976-1991.

Plummer could be the long awaited heir to Lomax, but the Cardinals have such a lousy owner, he will never have talent around him and likely won't stick around anyway.

[holyroller]

Indeed. Krieg was still the QB when I first became a fan during the salad days of Warner, Largent, Easley, and Green. They have been nothing but mediocre since. I was optimistic when they brought in Holmgren, but his talent evaluation skills are obviously lacking. How long, oh Lord, how long?

[Dwolfson20]

Well, they're revoking his status as the GM this offseason, correct?

[Matt Davis]

Also another bust, but I forgot for what year it was, I believe 1999 was Ryan Leaf. He's already out of the league and never did anything when he was in it. Not to mention his immature personality that really screwed his chances of being an nfl qb.

[JSap]

Todd Marinovich (USC) was the next great Raider QB. He wasn't.

Todd is only 33 - is still might be Oakland's QB of the future!

[twins15]

Akili Smith and Cade McNown are busts so far. Akili has never played well, and Cade showed flashes, but hasn't really been good.

[holyroller]

Originally posted by Dwolfson20
Well, they're revoking his status as the GM this offseason, correct?

Yes indeedy. The hot rumor is that they are hot for former Saints GM Randy Mueller. I certainly hope that is true. He is the man responsible for the Saints bringing in Brooks, Deuce, Horn, Darrin Smith, etc. etc.

[The Professor]

Moving on:

1996: NA

1997: Jim Druckenmiller (Va Tech) by the 49ers at 26...not a West Coast prototype passer. Didn't develop into one, either.

1998: Manning and Leaf at 1 and 2, one outta two ain't bad but Leaf was gawd awful. Manning is headed for Canton.

1999: Couch, McNabb, Smith at 1-2-3, Culpepper and McNown at 11-12. Looking, at this point, like 2/5 turned out halfway decent.

2000: Chad Pennington at 18 by the Jets.

2001: Michael Vick, #1 overall

2002: Carr (1), Harrington (3), and Ramsey (32)

2003: Palmer (1), Leftwich (7), Boller (19), Grossman (22)

2004: Manning (1), Rivers (4), Roethlisberger (11), Losman (22)

2005: Smith (1), Rodgers and Campbell (24-25)

2006: ??

[fantom1979]

What made you think to revisit this after 2 years?

2000 Pennington, looked like a hit, might end up being a miss.
2001 Vick -- a hit, was he worth Tomlinson and others? TBD
2002 Carr -- not a bust, but not yet a hit, could do well with a new coach (and OL)
2002 Harrington -- About the same as Carr, but needs a new team.
2002 Ramsey -- Spurrier wrecked him and Gibbs finished the job, might be one of those guys who blooms when he is in his thirties.
2003 Palmer -- No brainer
2003 Leftwich -- a hit
2003 Boller -- Not looking good, but not in the Drunkenmiller category
2003 Grossman -- Still to be determined, hasnt been healthy enough yet
2004 Manning and Roethlisberger are hits already,Losman and Rivers are to be decided.
2005 To soon to tell, even for Smith.

[The Professor]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

What made you think to revisit this after 2 years?

2000 Pennington, looked like a hit, might end up being a miss.
2001 Vick -- a hit, was he worth Tomlinson and others? TBD
2002 Carr -- not a bust, but not yet a hit, could do well with a new coach (and OL)
2002 Harrington -- About the same as Carr, but needs a new team.
2002 Ramsey -- Spurrier wrecked him and Gibbs finished the job, might be one of those guys who blooms when he is in his thirties.
2003 Palmer -- No brainer
2003 Leftwich -- a hit
2003 Boller -- Not looking good, but not in the Drunkenmiller category
2003 Grossman -- Still to be determined, hasnt been healthy enough yet
2004 Manning and Roethlisberger are hits already,Losman and Rivers are to be decided.
2005 To soon to tell, even for Smith.

All the Vince Young discussion got me thinking about it, and someone (Spleen, maybe) in another thread mentioned the track record of #1 QBs. It isn't particularly good, is it?

I pretty much agree with all this. Pennington is sort of a lesser Bert Jones, IMO. Barring a magical comeback, injuries ruined a pretty solid passer.

I'm not sure about the Harrington/Boller situations. Both are Jeff Teford products, both seem to be strong examples for not drafting Tedford products (uh-oh Aaron Rodgers!). Boller seemed to be coming on in the final weeks...is it real? Harrington - if he is salvagable - needs a change of scenery in a bad way.

[Skipaway]

It's just a high risk high reward investment. If people are against drafting promising quarterbacks high, what's a good alternative?

When we do analysis like this, we would also have to review where are all the good quarterbacks coming from. Apparently it's mostly from the first round.

[The Professor]

Here are the HOF QBs:

George Blanda (Also PK) NA
Terry Bradshaw (1970-1; LaTech)
Len Dawson NA
John Elway (1983-1; Stanford)
Dan Fouts (1973-3; Oregon)
Otto Graham NA
Bob Griese (1967-1; Purdue)
Sonny Jurgensen NA
Jim Kelly (1983-1; Miami)
Bobby Layne NA
Dan Marino (1983-1; Pitt)
Joe Montana (1979-3; Notre Dame)
Joe Namath NA
Bart Starr NA
Roger Staubach NA
Fran Tarkenton NA
Y.A. Tittle NA
Johnny Unitas NA
Norm Van Brocklin NA
Bob Waterfield NA
Steve Young (1984-1 Supp; BYU)

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Non-HOF Greats or Goods or even Mostly Decent (or, "We Started for a Playoff Team") who were NOT drafted in the 1st Round:

1968: Ken Stabler (2nd Round)
69: James Harris (3rd Round)
71: Dickey, Anderson (2nd Round), Theismann (4th)
72: Brian Sipe (13th Round)
73: Ron Jaworski (2nd), Ferguson (3rd),
74: Danny White (3rd)
75: Steve Grogan (5th), Pat Haden (7th)
77: Vince Ferragamo (4th), Vince Evans (5th), Steve DeBerg (10th)
78: Pat Ryan (11th), Bill Kenney (12th)
79: Montana (3rd)
80: Eric Hipple (4th), Gary Hogeboom (5th), David Woodley (8th)
81: Neil Lomax (2nd), Wade Wilson (11th)
82: Mike Pagel (4th)
84: Boomer Esiason (2nd), Jeff Hostetler (3rd), Jay Schroeder (3rd)
85: Randall Cunningham (2nd), Frank Reich (3rd), Steve Bono (6th), Doug Flutie (11th)
86: Jack Trudeau (2nd), Bubby Brister (3rd), Mark Rypien (6th)
87: Cody Carlson (3rd), Rich Gannon (4th), Beurlein (4th), Don Majkowski (10th)
88: Chris Chandler (3rd), Stan Humphries (6th)
89: Rodney Peete (6th)
90: Neil O'Donnell (3rd), Scott Mitchell (4th), John Friesz (6th)
91: Favre (2nd)
92: Jeff Blake (6th), Brad Johnson (9th), Ty Detmer (9th)
93: Brunell (5th), Alex Van Pelt (7th), Elvis Grbac (7th), Trent Green (7th)
94: Jim Miller (6th), Gus Frerotte (7th)
95: Kordell Stewart (2nd), Rob Johnson (4th)
96: Tony Banks (2nd), Danny Kanell (4th)
97: Jake Plummer (2nd)
98: Batch (2nd), Brian Griese (3rd), Matt Hasselbeck (6th)
99: Shaun King (2nd), Aaron Brooks (4th)
00: Tom Brady (6th), Marc Bulger (6th)
01: Drew Brees (2nd), Quincy Carter (2nd)
02: Josh McCown (3rd), David Garrard (4th)
03: Chris Simms (3rd)
05: Charlie Frye (3rd), Kyle Orton (4th),
TBC