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OOTP 14 - General Discussions Discuss the new 2013 version of Out of the Park Baseball here!

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Old 05-11-2013, 11:38 AM   #21
sc_superstar
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how is that additional points in contact?
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Old 05-11-2013, 12:48 PM   #22
ezpkns34
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how is that additional points in contact?

.300avg (all singles), .370 obp, 50k




.250 avg (all singles), .370 obp, 125k



Probably should've done this in a fictional or modern league instead of my historical league, but I already had my historical league open

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Old 05-11-2013, 01:18 PM   #23
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Of course, that brings up an interesting point - are contact and eye not actually related to avoid Ks? That is, will a guy with 70 contact/10 eye and a guy with 70 contact/80 eye both have the same batting average?

It would be nice to treat them separately. Ideally I'd have the ratings as basically contact = BABIP, Gap power = iso (not counting HR), eye = bb/pa, avoid k = pa/k, HR power = hr/(pa-bb-k). It would be harder to compare players, but it might actually be a truer representation of player abilities. Thus a guy with great contact might actually have a low average if he strikes out a lot, but as he cuts down the Ks, his average will increase.
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Old 05-11-2013, 02:59 PM   #24
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You'd think that any player with a better contact rating would somewhat automatically have a higher Avoid K's rating, since he's going to make better contact with pitches in the strike zone, reducing his K's. Fouling off better pitches and looking for mistakes.

In ezpkns34's example, Thomas' contact rating is higher along with his avoid K's. So, for example, if a hitter can avoid striking out a little better, it's likely he already qualifies as a better contact hitter, just like the real game, whereas a power hitter could likely be a better eye hitter because he's constantly looking to hit the fastball, and has been trained to not swing and breaking balls.

Local example: Justin Smoak, M's 1B, historically good at drawing BB's in his earlier years while being a power threat. Pitchers would pitch around him, artificially elevating his would be "eye" rating because he could launch more pitches over the fence.

Maybe that's the dynamic: Eye rating is produced by HR or RBI potential threats, whereas Avoid K rating is developed by contact potential.
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Old 05-11-2013, 06:46 PM   #25
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The Contact rating tells you what batting AVG to expect. It is based on a hidden BABIP rating and the AvoidK rating. The only thing the AvoidK rating tells you is how often a batter will strike out, so it really doesn't matter unless you really think strikeouts are terrible (they aren't, but some old school baseball people seem to think they are). If you have two batters with 50/100 Contact ratings, and one has a 100/100 AvoidK, and the other has a 20/100 AvoidK, they will both hit about .265 in a season. The 100/100 AvoidK guy is just going to ground out or fly out all the time while the other guy will strike out all the time.
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Old 05-11-2013, 08:56 PM   #26
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The Contact rating tells you what batting AVG to expect. It is based on a hidden BABIP rating and the AvoidK rating. The only thing the AvoidK rating tells you is how often a batter will strike out, so it really doesn't matter unless you really think strikeouts are terrible (they aren't, but some old school baseball people seem to think they are). If you have two batters with 50/100 Contact ratings, and one has a 100/100 AvoidK, and the other has a 20/100 AvoidK, they will both hit about .265 in a season. The 100/100 AvoidK guy is just going to ground out or fly out all the time while the other guy will strike out all the time.
I respectfully disagree about your statement about strikeouts. Strikeouts are non-productive outs. At least, if a batter grounds or flys out, with a runner or runners on, those runners can advance, sometimes score. Strikeouts don't provide the same bonus. A high strikeout rate is also an indicator of a high LOB rate as well.

And, let's assume a 100/100 Avoid K's player exists and never strikes out. Even if, as your example shows, he hits .265, it must mean that he consistently puts the ball in play, forcing the defense to make plays. So his outs come with an increased chance of RBI's, since any baserunners on 3rd have a much better shot at scoring. Sure, his OPS might still not be high, but he's a more productive batter. And batter productivity isn't just reserved for old school baseball guys, the sabermetricians among us like productivity just as much.
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Old 05-11-2013, 09:53 PM   #27
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The counter to your side though is that strikeouts don't end in double plays. And to paint in a large brush, most guys who have low avoid K ratings, are power hitters, who are also...slow, and are the easiest to double off.


I'm mostly playing devil's advocate, because I'm really interested in the discussion going on, and want it to keep going.
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Old 05-11-2013, 10:05 PM   #28
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Anyone who has ever studied this question will tell you that a strikeout is only negligibly worse than another kind of out. The positive effects of getting out on a ball in play (possibility of advancing runners) is almost completely offset by the negative effect of hitting into double plays. There's a run value table here, for example, which indicates how much each type of out is worth:

How can strikeouts be great for pitchers, but not that bad for hitters? - Beyond the Box Score

And there are players in OOTP with 100/100 AvoidK ratings. Those aren't players who "never strike out" - everyone in OOTP strikes out sometimes - just as players with 100/100 Power ratings are not guys who hit HRs in every at bat.
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Old 05-11-2013, 10:46 PM   #29
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Both points have valid arguments, and I still prefer avoid K and will others as well, and some will still prefere eye, but attempting to shove "this is my opinion so you need to believe it" down people's throats is just silly
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Old 05-12-2013, 02:36 AM   #30
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I can't remember where/when I read it (Baseball Between the Numbers-Jonah Keri, or The Book - Tom Tango) but there was some data about non productive outs. The gist of it was that, historically, strikeouts reduce the likelihood of run production per game and per season.

So, I went to baseball-reference.com and looked up what happened in the 2012 season. I looked at each team's total runs scored vs their strikeouts. I wanted to see if there was a correlation between runs and K's. Turns out, there is.

In the AL, the best run scoring team, Texas, scored 808 runs while striking out 1103 times for a R/K rate of 1.36 K's per run scored. The AL average was 721/1187/1.64, while the worst was Seattle @ 619/1259/2.03. In the AL, with the exception of KC and Cle, the numbers show a reasonably steady climb in R/K rate.

In the NL, it's a more steady rate of increase. The best team in terms of R/K rate was SF (won the World Series...) @ 718/1097/1.53. The highest scoring team in the NL, Milwaukee, came in @ 776/1240/1.60, so not that much higher in rate than SF. The NL league average was 683/1238/1.81 (so again, the NL suffers because the pitchers hit). The worst team was clearly Houston @ 583/1365/2.34. You'd expect the NL's overall rate of R/K to be higher because the pitchers hit, but its pattern of R/K rate is more predictable as well.

Since my argument was basically that K's are non productive, and there are radically higher rates of K's to GIDP's per team per year, I'd emphasize reducing K's over worrying about GIDP's. Besides, with no runner on first the GIDP chances are so low that they're a non-factor.
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Old 05-12-2013, 02:36 AM   #31
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attempting to shove "this is my opinion so you need to believe it" down people's throats is just silly
Who are you talking about?
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Old 05-12-2013, 02:40 AM   #32
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So, I went to baseball-reference.com and looked up what happened in the 2012 season. I looked at each team's total runs scored vs their strikeouts. I wanted to see if there was a correlation between runs and K's. Turns out, there is.
You realize this study is meaningless, at least as far as this discussion goes? We aren't asking the question: do strikeouts prevent you from getting runs? Of course they do; they make outs. The question is: are strikeouts worse than other types of outs? The answer to that question can't be answered with a simple correlation study, since teams that strike out more tend to have lower batting averages, and it's lower batting averages that mean fewer runs. Don't conflate correlation and causation.
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Old 05-12-2013, 03:00 AM   #33
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You realize this study is meaningless, at least as far as this discussion goes? We aren't asking the question: do strikeouts prevent you from getting runs? Of course they do; they make outs. The question is: are strikeouts worse than other types of outs? The answer to that question can't be answered with a simple correlation study, since teams that strike out more tend to have lower batting averages, and it's lower batting averages that mean fewer runs. Don't conflate correlation and causation.
Despite your opinion that studying whether teams that strike out more score fewer runs is meaningless, it appears that many offensive numbers follow whether a team strikes out a lot or not. And, in a way, you answered my questions yourself, pointing out that teams that do strike out more have lower batting averages. Since there are still 27 (or 24) outs per game, if the ratio of strikeouts per game increases, and batting averages (and other numbers) suffer, then wouldn't that indicate that strikeouts ARE worse outs, having a more profound impact on other offensive aspects?

BTW, I love discussions like this. When I was younger, a buddy of mine and I could talk stats for hours, sometimes never reaching any sort of consensus. No "shoving" here...
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Old 05-12-2013, 03:23 AM   #34
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I think it has been said, but I will say it again.

I do not value avoid k's that highly, but it is a component of contact.

If you turn on commissioner mode and go into the player editor and change the avoid k's value then it will change the contact value.
My guess is that this was coded this way because avoiding k's puts more balls into play and thus increases the raw number of chances for a hit.

I am not sure why it would not also increase the chances for a homerun or extra base hit since these are also dependent on the ball being put into play.
It may actually increase these chances, but it does not affect these two ratings.

I am 99% sure that the sequence of coding is that the die roll is made for the ball to be put into play or not, and then another die roll for a hit or out (vs the die rolls for fielding) and then two more die rolls that determine an extra base hit (dependent on gap rating) or a HR (dependent on power rating)


This all came about I think in OOTP 7 or possibly 8. Or is may have been with the new engine in 2006.

I know with 100% certainty that avoid Ks in OOTP 6.5 and backwards was a completely useless rating.
I always had a good laugh at guys in my 6.5 leagues who would draft players or trade for players based on avoid K's. It was a 100% cosmetic rating.
I ran tests in a 12 team league where every pitcher had a 70 in every rating.
The park factors were all set to 100 for all 12 stadiums in every category.
4 teams had players with a avoid K rating of 1, 4 teams had a rating of 50 and 4 teams had a rating of 100.
There was no statistically significant difference in batting averages between players who contact ratings were the same or very similar.
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Old 05-12-2013, 03:27 AM   #35
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Also to add

In the extreme example that the game generated two players.
Player A has a contact rating 100/100 and an avoid K rating of 1.
Player B has a contact rating of 100/100 and an avoid K rating of 100

If Player A's Avoid K rating improves at all, it could push him past 100 contact.

So you could actually end up with a scenario where you have to draft these two players and you take the one with the lower rating on the chance that he will get a development boost in Avoid K

I am not sure that I have ever seen this. But to my knowledge it would be theoretically possible.
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Old 05-12-2013, 03:36 AM   #36
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Also to add

In the extreme example that the game generated two players.
Player A has a contact rating 100/100 and an avoid K rating of 1.
Player B has a contact rating of 100/100 and an avoid K rating of 100

If Player A's Avoid K rating improves at all, it could push him past 100 contact.

So you could actually end up with a scenario where you have to draft these two players and you take the one with the lower rating on the chance that he will get a development boost in Avoid K

I am not sure that I have ever seen this. But to my knowledge it would be theoretically possible.


That's awesome! So what you're saying is that Avoid K's alters the contact rating, but not gap or power, etc.? If so, I'm going to value Avoid K's during the draft, since a player's development in pro ball should be faster the higher this rating.

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Old 05-12-2013, 03:45 AM   #37
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Forget about what I said above

It is not possible, once the avoid K rating is set, you cannot edit the contact rating independently. It is a function of both BABIP and Avoid K
A player with a 1 Avoid K and a 250 BABIP will always have a contact of a certain rating.
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Old 05-12-2013, 03:48 AM   #38
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That's awesome! So what you're saying is that Avoid K's alters the contact rating, but not gap or power, etc.? If so, I'm going to value Avoid K's during the draft, since a player's development in pro ball should be faster the higher this rating.
I was wrong about what you quoted. But I am correct in that Avoid K is a component of contact

Start a simple test league and put yourself in commissioner mode and play around in the editor. Adjusting the Avoid K rating changes the contact rating.
It is a component of the BABIP rating and avoid K
With a little bit of math you could figure out the ration that the game uses to come up with the contact rating.


Also, after more thinking. In my experience with OOTP, speed also affects a players batting average.
It DOES NOT affect their contact rating (which makes sense) but it does seem to affect their total number of hits.
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Old 05-12-2013, 03:49 AM   #39
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I am 99% sure that the sequence of coding is that the die roll is made for the ball to be put into play or not, and then another die roll for a hit or out (vs the die rolls for fielding) and then two more die rolls that determine an extra base hit (dependent on gap rating) or a HR (dependent on power rating)
That's not quite how things work, as I understand. The first thing the game decides is whether the outcome will be a HR. Then, if it's not a HR, it decides among the remaining outcomes. So AvoidK has no influence on HRs, since that decision is made first; batter Power and pitcher Movement are the only ratings that come into play.

The game works out the Contact rating by determining:

- how many hits (HRs) a batter will get because of his Power rating
- how many outs a batter will make because of his AvoidK rating
- how many of the remaining at bats (where the ball is in play) will result in hits because of the BABIP rating

From those three determinations the game can project a player's batting AVG, which is what the Contact rating tells you.

When AvoidK goes up, Contact will go up. But that's also true if Power goes up (though that effect is small), or if the BABIP rating goes up (the BABIP rating is the most important in determining Contact for players who are halfway decent). For players near average (or better) in everything, modest changes to AvoidK have only a very small effect on Contact. But for players at the very bottom of the AvoidK scale, even a small improvement to AvoidK can make a huge difference to Contact (the AvoidK scale is not linear, and players at the extreme low end strike out disastrously often, so a small boost can drastically cut Ks and therefore dramatically improve batting AVG).
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Old 05-12-2013, 03:53 AM   #40
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That's not quite how things work, as I understand. The first thing the game decides is whether the outcome will be a HR. Then, if it's not a HR, it decides among the remaining outcomes. So AvoidK has no influence on HRs, since that decision is made first; batter Power and pitcher Movement are the only ratings that come into play.

The game works out the Contact rating by determining:

- how many hits (HRs) a batter will get because of his Power rating
- how many outs a batter will make because of his AvoidK rating
- how many of the remaining at bats (where the ball is in play) will result in hits because of the BABIP rating

From those three determinations the game can project a player's batting AVG, which is what the Contact rating tells you.

When AvoidK goes up, Contact will go up. But that's also true if Power goes up (though that effect is small), or if the BABIP rating goes up (the BABIP rating is the most important in determining Contact for players who are halfway decent). For players near average (or better) in everything, modest changes to AvoidK have only a very small effect on Contact. But for players at the very bottom of the AvoidK scale, even a small improvement to AvoidK can make a huge difference to Contact (the AvoidK scale is not linear, and players at the extreme low end strike out disastrously often, so a small boost can drastically cut Ks and therefore dramatically improve batting AVG).

Your memory is quite possibly better than mine. I have been here so many years and read 10s of thousands of posts and thing become jumbled in my mind.

I think what you describe as the HR being determined first was how things were coded in versions prior to the OOTP 6.5 rewrite.
I think after 2006 up until today things are different.
Markus has been coy about revealing the die rolls and math behind the games engine.

But I have been wrong in this thread several times already and I would not be the least bit surprised if what you wrote was stated by Markus after the 2006 code rewrite.

Last edited by rudel.dietrich; 05-12-2013 at 03:57 AM.
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