TCR Question

[Bluenoser]

Talent Change Randomness

Does anybody know if it's a one time thing when it happens?

ie: Say you have a 10th rnd 1/2 star guy who over a 3 year period becomes a Piazza and gets really good. Is there a chance that he might reverse in another couple years and become bad again?

Just to be clear, I ask the question in regards to TCR's, not in regards to normal progression/regression.

What I want to know basically is, if a bad player becomes good (or vice versa) because of a random TC caused by the TCR settings, will this player be likely to get hit again, either up or down, by another random TC.

Or will he just follow normal progression/regression after that?


Hope I'm making sense.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

Talent Change Randomness

Does anybody know if it's a one time thing when it happens?

ie: Say you have a 10th rnd 1/2 star guy who over a 3 year period becomes a Piazza and gets really good. Is there a chance that he might reverse in another couple years and become bad again?

Just to be clear, I ask the question in regards to TCR's, not in regards to normal progression/regression.

What I want to know basically is, if a bad player becomes good (or vice versa) because of a random TC caused by the TCR settings, will this player be likely to get hit again, either up or down, by another random TC.

Or will he just follow normal progression/regression after that?


Hope I'm making sense.

I may not make any more sense than you but the answer IMO is no to the bold. I see it continuing throughout each players career. Also keep in mind this is talent change not ratings change. A talent change up (and vice versa) may cause a subsequent ratings change up which may or may not be permanent.

I can only paint a picture of what I think TCR does and hope that you can see it. Imagine a graph of Talent vs age (or time). Most of us will see a line starting at some point on the scale when the players is created/drafted. That line will rise up as the players develops with a few smooth waves then reach a peak, then level off (still with some waves) then go into a decline (more waves) until retirement.

I see TCR as sharp peaks/valleys like you see on lie detector test readouts which are superimposed on the smooth wavy line of player development and aging. The TCR setting influences how random these occurrences are.

Reading between the lines in the manual it seems to me that the TCR setting gives you a chance to get lucky with some players and lose some too. If you set it very low you may get more players making it to the top but you are likely to get less very good players. Risk reward for sure. I've done a 180 on TCR in the last 2 versions I've gone from 25 to 100 and like it a lot.

Does that make any sense? I could be blowing smoke.

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by RchW

I may not make any more sense than you but the answer IMO is no to the bold. I see it continuing throughout each players career. Also keep in mind this is talent change not ratings change. A talent change up (and vice versa) may cause a subsequent ratings change up which may or may not be permanent.

I can only paint a picture of what I think TCR does and hope that you can see it. Imagine a graph of Talent vs age (or time). Most of us will see a line starting at some point on the scale when the players is created/drafted. That line will rise up as the players develops with a few smooth waves then reach a peak, then level off (still with some waves) then go into a decline (more waves) until retirement.

I see TCR as sharp peaks/valleys like you see on lie detector test readouts which are superimposed on the smooth wavy line of player development and aging. The TCR setting influences how random these occurrences are.

Reading between the lines in the manual it seems to me that the TCR setting gives you a chance to get lucky with some players and lose some too. If you set it very low you may get more players making it to the top but you are likely to get less very good players. Risk reward for sure. I've done a 180 on TCR in the last 2 versions I've gone from 25 to 100 and like it a lot.

Does that make any sense? I could be blowing smoke.

Ya, makes some sense. Still somewhat confusing over-all, as I was under the impression that the engine looked after development based on talent/potential and the normal progression/regression.

What I thought the % chance of it happening was more of a "random" boost/decline outside of the regular development cycle.

Sort of like this

OOTP Development Engine - affects all players over the course of their career for normal progression/regression.

TCR - affects random players with a sudden boost/decline. This is where the Mike Piazza types came from. This random boost/decline might hit any player at anytime, but not all players all the time like normal progression/regression.

So I am probably way off base here thinking they are separate.

Thanks for your insight though, every little bit helps fit the pieces together.