what to do, star ratings, & offseason trades

[Mmoniz]

We're in our first offseason and I have a couple of questions. It's Nov.13, 2012 a week before players file for gree agency.

The Blue Jays (who finished last in the division) seem to be clearing house. We're looking to upgrade our closer and shortstop and I believe only Valverde and Erik Aybar were the only good ones coming in the Free Agent Market, so I looked around for others in trade, which brought me to Toronto. I can get Sergio Santos, Yunel Escobar, + almost anyone else for comparatively very little (right now I have it set up for Michael Bowden and Ryan Westmorland). It seemed fishy to me. Neither Santos nor Escobar will be hitting free agency soon. They have longterm contracts - Santos (29 yrs old) is 4.3M for 5 yrs; Escobar (30 yrs old) 5M for 4yrs. Age and contract years are two reason why I'm hesitant.

Santos - looks pretty good, but lacks control (another reason)
rating: 4 star closer. Stuff: 20 Movement:16 Control: 9 Stamina: 1
2012 Stats
ERA: 3.75 WHIP: 1.40 BABIP: .337 OAVG: .249 FIP: 3.09
IP: 62.1 BB: 28 K: 70 HR: 4 K/9: 10.1 BB/9: 4.0 K/BB: 2.5
S: 31 BS: 8 HLD: 1

Despite control issues he has a 3.09 FIP. Far better than my current closer Bailey ERA: 5.61 WHIP: 1.58 BABIP: .352 FIP: 4.21 S:30 BS: 12!


Escobar - seems to be a very good ss but lacks speed (don't need him at the top of lineup I have Ellsbury & Crawford). Durable. Normal injury history. Equally good vs LFT and RT pitchers.

rating: 4 star shortstop. Range:19 Arm:18 Error:14 DP:15 Position Rating:18
Contact: 13 Gap: 13 Power:7 Eye:12 AvoidK:17 Speed:6 Steal:13
G:153 AB: 627 AVG: .263 OBP: .316 SLG: .410 OPS: .726 HR:16
RBI: 74 R: 80 BB: 45 K:54

Escobar is a defensive upgrade over Mike Aviles. Offensively they are about the same, but Escobar's better Eye and Avoid K has him walking more and striking out less and there is a slight decrease in Aviles'abilities vs righties.

I also acquired Addison Reed in a trade during the season, who I was thinking to put as closer, but he drops from a 5 Star Reliever to a 2 1/2 star closer.

(1) Does that matter or will his abilites overcome the poor star rating? How important are the star ratings?

Bullpen is: Bailey, L. Coleman, Tim Collins, Mark Melancon, Joe Patterson, Addison Reed, and Alfonso Serrano (a great reliever I got in the draft).

(2) So should I trade for both of them or just Escobar plus bench player and move Reed to closer.

(3) If I want to do the trades, does the timing here affect anything? It's just before the Free Agent market opens. Will their trade value change after Free Agency begins?

I also have another possible trade of getting MR Jonny Venter and a bench player from Atlanta for MR Tim Collins and 2B Brad Emaus. A great deal on paper. Venters seems to be a top reliever with great abilities and excellent stats. ERA: 3.07 WHIP: 1.13 BABIP: .298 FIP: 2.55 BB/9: 3.0 K/9: 10.0. 6-3, S:3 BS: 3 HLD: 24. He signed a 1 yr extension with Atlanta for 5.6M and he's on the good side of 30 (27 yrs old). I like this one better than the Santos trade.

(4) Where exactly does the money come from for offseason trades?

According to the Front Office I have about $25.6M for Extensions and $15M for Free Agents. I'm not sure how it gets 15M for FA, Budget is 190M and Payroll is $166. I calculated my 2012 payroll as about $168.6M (close enough), so that should give me 21-24M as $ for FA, no? Budget - current payroll = $ FA. Does the offseason affect what's being used to calculate this?

(5) Is the Player Payroll listed in the Front Office still the 2012 payroll or is it the 21013 payroll?

Now the 2013 payroll is known if I don't move or get any players. Arbitration is over, so their 2013 salaries are set. The 2013 payroll is $164M (also close to the 166M that's listed). That should give me a 2012 $ Extension of 26M (which is close to what the Font Office says I have now) and a 2013 $ FA of 26M (190M-164M=26M). Correct?

(6) So if I want to do these trades and pick up the new players' contracts, can I afford it?

Santos is 4.3M, Escobar is 5M, Venters is 5.6M. That's about 15M total in new salary. The 4 players I'm giving up are all under team control making the minimum 480K so that saves just under 2M. So the new salary commitment would be about 13M. My current payroll is 166M, Budget is 190M, so there seems to be room. My 2013 payroll is 164M so there is room there as well for that year.

Now I'm concerned in that money seems to be taken up by something that I can't figure. I only have 15M for FA, I should have 24M. In Septemer I had 21.5M for Free Agents. I didn’t sign any Free Agents (I only extended 4 players).

(7) Why did it go from 21.M to 15M???!!!

I assume these new salaries only get applied to the 2013 season and beyond and not the 2012 season since it is over. I assume it will decrease my current $ for Extensions from 26M to 13M. Now I've already extended players earlier in the offseason so I don’t need that 13M now, unless I trade for other players.

(8) If I trade for these players and their salaries are applied to the 2013 budget, then my 2013 payroll increases by 13M and my $ for FA will therefore decrease by 13M going from 26M to 23M. My current $ for Extension will become my new $ for FA. Correct?

(9) So back to the big questions – should I make the trade and can I afford them?


Sorry for the long post. Thanks in advance.

[McGuiser]

You should be able to shift a MR into closer duties -- and change him to CL -- without any problems at all. His ratings matter more than his stars, which merely compare him to others at the same position. I usually do not have a classic closer, and my teams have not suffered.

The designated position presumably affects a player's trade attractiveness (e.g. starters are more valued than MR, and an AI team with a particular need might not be interested in an appropriate player with the "wrong" position designation).

Several earlier posts have addressed the baffling financial matters, without anyone seeming to know why some of the line items change as they do. I gave up trying to understand that, and my teams have not suffered.

Some AI teams run a deficit (as you discover when trading), and my guess is that your team could, too, if you offer extensions so that you have little salary room left and then arbitration pushes you into deficit.

But your owner will not let you make a trade if you cannot afford it, so if he gives the OK, I think you should not worry too much about the inner workings.

I almost always have way more free agent money available than I need, and so I have learned to not worry much about fluctuations. If more super-star free agents agreed to one-year deals, I would pay more attention.

[Disco Dog 13]

The only time I've seen you can massively go over budget is when arbitration kicks in - I once went $80M over due to about 10 guys all going from $500K to megabucks !!