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OOTP 19 - General Discussions Everything about the 2018 version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA. |
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04-24-2018, 10:53 AM | #1 |
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Handling of (Struggling) MLB Prospects: Timing, Leash Length, Etc.
So what's your strategy for when a young prospect (or even international free agent) struggles at the MLB level? How long is your leash with them? Does it help or hurt them more to send them down to AAA for some retooling?
I have a 22 year old SS prospect and a 29 year old OF international free agent who are in their first month of MLB action. Both are struggling at the plate, but have very low BABIP (some bad luck, some just bad) and both are around 50 ABs. They'll be pissed if I send them down, but what's best for their overall happiness and development?
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04-24-2018, 11:32 AM | #2 |
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Happiness: what is their expectation? If they expect to be at the mlb level, then they will not like a demotion.
Development: what is their history? If they have been at AAA for two years, then they likely have nothing to learn there and may just be a AAAA player. If they skipped AAA, they probably should go there now. Leash: 50 at bats is a pretty short leash. Maybe see how they are doing after another 50. Does your AI manager/bench coach think they should be in the lineup? That's a good clue. |
04-24-2018, 11:41 AM | #3 |
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are tehy better rated than your other options?
do you have similar quality players for replacement? if they are better and you have no other equivalent options, you stick with them... law of independent results. if they are "better" they are always better and you cannot predict small sample results. play the odds. yesterday's results or even the last AB are meaningless to the current AB. excludes an injury or a random TCR even that takes place between the 2 points of time.. that is a tangible cause for a change in probability of results. if you do have better optiosn, odds are you are spending money on redundancies that don't help your team much... or lucky enough to have a kid/vet on bench that is cheap for some reason flip a balanced coin 3 times and get 3 heads.. .the next flip is still 50/50 regardless of previous results. law of independent results. so, always play the best player all factors considered.. .i.e. fatigue could even the odds betwen a better and a slightly worse player.. or a dtd injury etc... yesterday's results do no such thing. Now, there very well might be a "experience" period needed when first entering the MLB in the video game. i see some guys struggle their rookie year (i even had a guy that took ~300 games before results matched ratings -- 2 years of severe underperfomance then pow - consistently awesome as expected from high ratings), then with same ratings go on to 5-10 years of ~normal range of results. this could also just be bad luck, but it seems to happen enough that it may be a real thing in the video game -- cannot by 100% certain with the naked eye.. however, i rarely see it with elitely rated players.. like 80+/100 contact rarely have a bad year even if a rookie. i'll post a screenshot of one such example that make sme think it's a real effect -- but again only shifts odds due to lack of experience as a side effect, and may not be the same for all players. a 22 year old doesn't always have their power fully developed, so as that improves their results should improve with it. no matter what, if they are well-rated you need to forge ahead and get them the experience necessary to get over that presumed bump.. sitting them doesn't help that situation, if it even is a real effect. all players have bad years, so you'd have to compare the average rate relative to quality and then look at different levels of experience and see if that rate of a bad year changes in a statistically significant way. good luck on that screenshot: first, this guy is the ~exact same ratings as teh rookie year -within 1-2 on a 100pts scale due to natural fluctuation over that time etc... edit-oops not "rookie year" ignoring the 4g rookie year. oh, also a DH, so that's a slight hit to ratings from what i know that is unseen. aged 22, 23 for the two years with 162g played in mlb. second, year two is an overperformance... a top-end of his range, most likely. however, i don't see guys rated like this have ~100ops+ seasons.. maybe 108 or 110, but i don't think i've seen one dip this low in a non-rookie year. also, you can see a great AAA stats is meaningless. you absolutley do not need a player to play any minimum # of games or AB in the minor leagues to have success in MLB -- all about ratings. go make an legend/fully developed 18year old and plop him on your team.. they almost always have great rookie years with no mil experience. if they have a hard time, and consistently, i.e. replay that season and they 'always' underperform it's likely some unseen rating or effect that is most likely variable between players that affects being able to perform well at a young age... just as some 18years olds can perform well at AAA and some cannot even with the exact same ratings -- and repeateable / recreateable contexts -- also considering a more normal range of current ability for an 18 year old and not some legend/fully developed created player. i've seen plenty of rookies, even 19 year olds have amazing rookie or early years, so this effect is variable at the least. i've also seen some flop with great ratings... like the screenshot below.. or the guy i mention took 2 years of futlity before tehy performed as i would expect relative to their ratings. even though it was his "2nd" and "3rd" year in mlb service time, he didn't play any games his rookie year. Edit: just looked at his ratings in editor for sake of this discussion.. not accurate ratings visible in profile: acutall 100pt ratings would be: 80 contact, 89gap, 85power, 54eye. 67avoid k's -- a perrenial .500+ slugger while rated this way in my statistical environment.. .650 and 53hr is a crazy good year for power #'s and these ratings, to put it in perspective.. my conclusion -- age/experience *can* be a factor, butnot guaranteed... let them show their colors first... don't expect them to be a 1-6 hitter in lineup unless you are willing to plow through a bit of underperformance. some will surprise you and hit the ground running even so. this time-fram may be 0-2 years worth of games and variable per player. i had this guy low in lineup until he performed... even the 3rd year he starte out 7-8-9 area.. then i moved up as he showed the previous year was either a fluke or a learningn experience. Last edited by NoOne; 04-24-2018 at 12:16 PM. |
04-24-2018, 12:21 PM | #4 |
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here's a created legend with no mil experience.
really, not supremely better than phil middleton. less power, better contact rating slightly above max.. wanted to see if i could get a .400 hitter with my stats environemnt.. he came close. the only thing i editted was "1's" for injury pronenesss and kept him healthy during career. i did make 10 legends and picked out the best one, lol. deleted the rest. i've done this wiht an "18" year old too.. same results... if good enough, they don't even exhibit the effect of lack of experience... so, i'd also conclude that if it is a real effect, it is a stronger effect on lesser-rated players. Last edited by NoOne; 04-24-2018 at 12:26 PM. |
04-24-2018, 12:29 PM | #5 |
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Here are some OSA snapshots of each (20-80 scale).
The 22 year old SS. I really don't have anyone close to as good at the position, and my manager, when asked, puts him in the leadoff spot most times. I have been using him anywhere from 6-9 in the lineup (I prefer my best basestealer in the 6-spot and then letting guys hopefully single him home. He has a BABIP of .279. This is the 29-year old international free agent signing. While I know Spring Training doesn't mean much, I was going to start him in AAA, but he had some impressive numbers in ST, so we went with him for Opening Day. I do have another option who is younger but not as good (nor as well paid!), but he's not a very good RF and has far more experience in LF. Anyway, this guy here has a BABP of .226.
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Last edited by Mike Lowe; 04-24-2018 at 01:54 PM. |
04-24-2018, 12:52 PM | #6 |
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I would give both more time.
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04-24-2018, 12:58 PM | #7 |
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I'd leave the SS in the majors as long as he's fielding the position
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04-24-2018, 01:08 PM | #8 |
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yeah, unless the kid has a suitable replacement, i'd stick with him too.
same with the IFA, but different options when it'sa 22 year old rookie. neither are superstars, so a ~.200BA for 95 ab isn't out of the question... just as ~.400BA over that time isn't telling you anything to work with either. i'd prefer the SS as a long-term 3b or 2b too. limited range for a SS and going to be a higher end error ss too at 60/100. if you want a gold glove-quality, that is. but he'd be a weak offensive 3rd basement... wasted arm at 2b etc.. i'd let my team dictate where i use him, i guess. if it's the best defensive ss on your 25-man, he's a ss etc. edit: oops is that a 20-80 scale... a bit better than what i said about defensive stuff, nm... solid balanced SS if he can be above average offense when power fills out. if ratings accurate it's a 260-.270ish ba with ~.420-.450slugging at best.. (prime years, modern default stats league or thereabouts. my leauges have fewer hr, so maybe closer to .450slugger with default.) Last edited by NoOne; 04-24-2018 at 01:14 PM. |
04-24-2018, 01:53 PM | #9 | |
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Quote:
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04-24-2018, 02:08 PM | #10 |
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yes the SS is a very good defender. Unless you have a better fielding SS and he's not batting sub .200, I'd keep starting him there. He's pretty much filled out minus his power. I don't think it's wise to hold a guy down, just for power.
The RF is struggling, but he's a good defender and has good ratings. I'd keep him on the bench against lefties though.
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04-24-2018, 02:10 PM | #11 |
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In OOTP, there is a hidden rating called "adaptability". In part, it controls how quickly a player settles into a new situation. Until they settle in, their performance will generally be below their skill level. High adaptability players, I've thrown a position change at them in spring training and seen them win a gold glove there the next season. But low adaptability players can take a season or more to play to their ratings.
When evaluating whether someone needs to go back down to AAA, I am usually looking at multiple factors: 1) Are they contributing on defense? If so, they may be settled in and just unlucky. 2) Is their performance so terrible that it may affect their development because they're getting angry? I don't know if this is a 'real thing' in OOTP, but I figure if a guy has an OPS+ under 80, he probably wouldn't be allowed to languish through it in the 'real world'. I mean, the Cubs sent Schwarber down in a season where he hit 30 HR. 3) I tend to take a few minutes to evaluate every player twice a month, except for April, where I let a full month of the season go before looking at anything. I'll check players who are performing badly, check my 40 man/AAA to see if there's anyone I'd like to give a shot, etc. I typically make a few moves per season, not usually for starters, although I've had a long run with underperforming outfielders I would say, if the kid is playing decent defense (ZR >= 0, efficiency close to or better than 1), let him keep playing. That means he's contributing on defense and for SS, sometimes that's all you're looking for. If you expect to compete for the playoffs, and his performance starts holding you back, keep an eye on the waiver wire, or trade from a position of depth in AAA for a utility player that can give you a little bump. |
04-24-2018, 02:32 PM | #12 | |
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Against lefties, yes I have not been starting him much at all unless I have a flyball pitcher starting for me.
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Last edited by Mike Lowe; 04-24-2018 at 02:33 PM. |
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04-24-2018, 03:21 PM | #13 | |
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no worries about perfromance affecting developement in the MLB... and it is only a minor effect in the minor leagues. (manual confirms, multiple threads with ootp-agent's words too) edit: yeah, i have a catcher with a "188" adaptability and it's taken 300games before he performs upto his ratigns.. another 3b had "161" and took 1 year of 'suck' before he was good. not saying adaptability doens't influence it, but it's definitely not a "third-rail" type influence. i've seen plenty of low adaptability guys blow through minors and succeed immediately, too. so, low correlation at best Last edited by NoOne; 04-24-2018 at 03:24 PM. |
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04-24-2018, 03:29 PM | #14 |
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Devil's advocate a bit here..
Then if these guys might suck all year, shouldn't I at least aim to get a 1-2 WAR filler and let them iron things out in MiLB?
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04-24-2018, 08:41 PM | #15 | |
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04-25-2018, 11:22 AM | #16 |
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Wouldn't you know it:
In yesterday's game, the international OF went 3 for 4 with a HR, 2B, BB. The SS went 2 for 4 with a 2B and BB.
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04-25-2018, 12:06 PM | #17 | |
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if they guy is similar in rating? sure... if he's significnatly lower, which is most likely the case of a bench player or some AAA-lifer, then no. if you think it's a real effect due to inexperience, then deduct a bit from their ratings and go through the same logic as above. everyone has bad stretches. even first-ballot HoF'ers. that doesn't mean they were less likely to produce in that window of time -- as their career numbers prove that it is a fluke / coincedence/ bad luck etc. you can't put lipstick on a pig. playing musical chairs with 2 drastically different player-ratings won't help.. stick with the better player. if they are ~equivalent, it won't matter. go ahead and react to small sample size. maybe the other guy has better luck, but regardless it's the same odds. Last edited by NoOne; 04-25-2018 at 01:06 PM. Reason: deduce => deduct, type-o |
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04-25-2018, 12:13 PM | #18 | |
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trading is a different thing... not much experience with that. i don't trade for mlb players very often. almost exclusively prospects in return. based on another thread i think it's more aobut meshing personalities and working with people related to team chemistry. like if you have selfish players or he doesn't liek a coach etc. how they react and let that stuff influence their morale. from another thread-- not just matt's post: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...5&postcount=14 also the note in the manual near bottom: http://manuals.ootpdevelopments.com/..._personalities whatever effect it has is small potatoes. Last edited by NoOne; 04-25-2018 at 12:18 PM. |
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04-25-2018, 02:05 PM | #19 | |
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04-27-2018, 12:28 AM | #20 |
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not saying it isnt' a factor, but seen enough both ways that it can't be too strong...
let results dictate. even high adaptability can have hard time in rookie/2nd year, and the opposite is true too. |
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