Best Starters

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr

He has the highest SP Movement in the game (as far as I know) by 12 whole points! You aren't going to take him deep often.

Using the formula above, from my list of 321 SP, I have him ranking #9. He's #15 on my proprietary ranking formula.

I picked him up this morning for my Perfect League team and in 4 games he had a 3.07 ERA (138 ERA+), threw a CGSO, pitched another CG (a loss, though), gave up 0 HRs, accumulated 1.1 WAR, and is second in FIP at 2.51. Somehow he's 1-2, but otherwise he's lived up to the modeling.

Yikes, someone just paid 13K (about 4K over the average price) this morning. I think that price will come back down once more get on the market. But then if he's as good as he appears, maybe it will go higher.

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by Blazinghalo

This is a list of some of the most commonly seen starters with projected FIP using the above formula.

Adding my records to this list in bold. You were missing #2-4, plus a few other top ones. And I'm assuming you intentionally left out some lower end ones, but this should be helpful for the bargain hunters.

Name OVR Stuff Mov Con FIP
Pedro Martinez 100 123 82 85 2.3373
Dwight Gooden 100 126 79 51 2.9742
Walter Johnson 97 114 71 76 3.0128
Pedro Martinez 97 116 64 87 3.0172
Christy Mathewson 96 113 64 88 3.0522
Carl Hubbell 97 93 75 87 3.057
Kevin Brown 96 87 80 82 3.0841
Spud Chandler 96 84 82 81 3.0881
Roger Clemens 100 98 81 68 3.1022
Randy Johnson 100 118 74 61 3.1048
Zack Greinke 96 86 84 74 3.1089
Dallas Keuchel 86 69 96 67 3.1326
Greg Maddux 93 67 84 90 3.1629
Walter Johnson 96 97 72 81 3.1901
Clayton Kershaw 96 90 72 88 3.1908
Matt Harvey 95 84 79 80 3.2042
Tim Keefe 96 101 77 66 3.2162
Dwight Gooden 97 105 73 69 3.2258
Randy Johnson 97 122 68 61 3.2324
Greg Maddux 94 73 80 87 3.2418
Hal Newhouser 97 106 78 57 3.2523
Walter Johnson 96 105 61 89 3.2734
Christy Mathewson 96 99 64 88 3.2968
Roger Clemens 94 89 77 73 3.3042
Bob Feller 100 126 70 49 3.3051
Bert Blyleven 93 93 70 80 3.3431
Cy Blanton 94 68 84 76 3.3886
Mark Prior 96 102 67 73 3.4062
John Smoltz 96 98 67 77 3.4066
Pedro Martinez 96 109 67 65 3.4229
Bob Gibson 93 84 80 65 3.4318
Chris Sale 100 103 65 74 3.4372
Bob Gibson 94 87 74 73 3.4379
Mike Scott 96 109 64 69 3.4521
Pete Alexander 93 75 72 88 3.4528
Dolf Luque 95 93 76 62 3.4583
Nolan Ryan 95 119 70 47 3.4621
Tom Seaver 100 107 62 74 3.4661
Jacob deGrom 100 91 72 71 3.4686
Christy Mathewson 95 90 65 85 3.4732
Sandy Koufax 95 98 63 80 3.4862
Bob Feller 88 126 79 21 3.4953
Johnny Vander Meer 95 126 70 38 3.4962
Greg Maddux 91 76 80 69 3.5021
Bert Blyleven 93 83 70 80 3.5178
Sandy Koufax 100 103 62 75 3.5186
Carl Hubbell 91 70 75 83 3.5283
Tim Lincecum 93 99 77 49 3.5464
Satchel Paige 89 93 71 66 3.5534
Dizzy Trout 91 62 81 78 3.5574
Sandy Koufax 96 117 60 61 3.583
Gary Peters 90 75 83 58 3.6119
Warren Spahn 92 77 74 73 3.6126
John Montefusco 93 99 68 61 3.6342
Dizzy Dean 94 100 61 73 3.6386
Brett Saberhagen 91 74 64 92 3.6641
Bret Saberhagen 91 74 64 92 3.6641
Cisco Carlos 88 66 80 69 3.6768
Noah Syndergaard 98 80 73 68 3.68
Don Drysdale 90 68 74 78 3.683
Clayton Kershaw 92 76 75 68 3.684
Mordecai Brown 91 78 76 64 3.6856
David Cone 93 95 73 52 3.6958
Steve Carlton 94 91 66 69 3.7008
Dizzy Dean 88 50 76 91 3.7058
Cliff Lee 91 82 65 79 3.7172
Rick Reuschel 90 71 76 69 3.7211
Dazzy Vance 96 126 48 66 3.7338
Don Sutton 90 89 62 76 3.7458
Don Sutton 91 89 62 76 3.7458
Garland Braxton 91 84 63 78 3.7655
Josh Beckett 91 80 65 78 3.7695
Chris Carpenter 91 79 68 73 3.7751
Sandy Koufax 93 96 63 65 3.7816
Stephen Strasburg 89 96 65 61 3.7853
Lefty Grove 94 102 58 68 3.7893
Tiny Bonham 89 59 70 88 3.7982
Bob Gibson 91 83 65 73 3.804
Red Faber 91 83 67 69 3.8076
Randy Johnson 93 110 55 63 3.8351
Brandon Webb 89 87 74 50 3.8374
Felix Hernandez 90 80 65 73 3.8564
Whitey Ford 89 65 75 69 3.8588
Gaylord Perry 89 70 68 77 3.8629
Len Barker 78 94 64 60 3.8705
Shohei Ohtani 100 96 60 65 3.8804
Roy Halladay 89 68 62 89 3.8868
Phil Niekro 91 86 67 61 3.8942
Jose Fernandez 91 104 60 56 3.8969
Cy Young 91 84 59 78 3.8971
Tom Seaver 92 97 53 76 3.9022
Clayton Kershaw 99 86 55 82 3.9243
Larry Dierker 83 75 64 76 3.9245
Trevor Bauer 96 82 72 53 3.9385
Stephen Strasburg 89 87 65 61 3.9425
Robin Roberts 90 77 56 88 3.9444
Pedro J Martinez 91 90 57 73 3.945
Sad Sam Jones 72 61 77 64 3.9497
Tom Seaver 90 85 60 72 3.951
Dennis Martinez 72 53 80 66 3.956
Brett Anderson 82 53 70 84 3.9725
Patrick Corbin 89 84 62 66 4.0068
Johan Santana 90 95 51 75 4.0203
Fred Newman 79 40 77 81 4.0213
Wes Ferrell 88 76 76 46 4.0332
Vida Blue 91 102 54 61 4.0425
Curt Schilling 89 76 54 87 4.0451
Brendan McKay 86 71 59 82 4.0547
Mike Soroka 79 67 59 86 4.0551
Max Scherzer 97 99 52 67 4.0565
Adonis Medina 76 75 61 74 4.058
Nolan Ryan 88 105 62 41 4.0742
Dick Ellsworth 88 63 72 64 4.0793
Luis Severino 93 85 58 68 4.0863
Elmer Riddle 84 58 71 70 4.0954
Jose Fernandez 88 85 67 50 4.1027
Phil Niekro 89 75 59 75 4.1065
Roy Oswalt 85 60 70 69 4.1107
Aaron Nola 92 77 64 63 4.1154
Chien-Ming Wang 60 30 83 74 4.1201
Carl Hubbell 89 86 50 80 4.1236
George Uhle 84 58 73 64 4.1338
Fergie Jenkins 89 82 47 89 4.1359
Frank Tanana 88 94 51 69 4.142
Wilbur Cooper 88 80 60 66 4.1425
Tom Glavine 88 76 61 67 4.1621
Warren Spahn 87 65 65 70 4.1705
Wilbur Wood 88 65 60 79 4.1788
Corey Kluber 96 78 52 81 4.1802
Carlos Carrasco 93 84 53 73 4.1814
Carlos Martinez 80 74 74 43 4.1861
Jim Bunning 87 78 51 82 4.1957
Jordan Hicks 66 70 80 34 4.2149
Justin Verlander 96 95 45 75 4.2178
Bob Ojeda 71 64 63 72 4.2191
Gerritt Cole 93 93 56 56 4.2208
Gerrit Cole 93 93 56 56 4.2208
Bob Gibson 88 80 60 61 4.2294
Early Wynn 85 69 64 64 4.2378
Pete Schourek 85 76 56 72 4.2398
Omar Daal 82 68 66 61 4.2416
Gaylord Perry 82 64 61 74 4.2502
Miles Mikolas 83 59 61 79 4.2507
Blake Snell 92 94 58 49 4.2591
Sixto Sanchez 75 81 50 77 4.2631
Roger Clemens 89 91 51 65 4.2639
Kevin Appier 86 83 64 48 4.2711
Forrest Whitley 78 82 56 64 4.274
Lefty Grove 89 90 48 71 4.2759
Justin Verlander 88 82 53 69 4.2858
Herman Pillette 77 50 80 50 4.2863
Wilbur Wood 86 65 58 76 4.2967
Jon Matlack 86 67 60 70 4.3002
A.J. Puk 75 84 58 56 4.3122
Jim Palmer 85 68 58 72 4.3138
Cal Quantrill 73 79 51 74 4.3172
Herb Pennock 70 46 69 73 4.3187
Mitch Keller 76 70 54 77 4.3236
Craig Swan 71 67 54 80 4.3239
Dick Ellsworth 84 63 64 65 4.3252
Michel Baez 82 86 47 74 4.3266
Mike Mussina 83 53 62 78 4.34
Curt Schilling 89 95 36 85 4.3403
Brent Honeywell 81 85 46 76 4.3422
Michael Kopech 80 91 57 49 4.3444
Zack Wheeler 85 79 60 55 4.3511
Joe McGinnity 82 61 70 54 4.3538
Jim Abbott 70 62 63 65 4.3756
Jesus Luzardo 82 86 51 63 4.386
Frank Viola 85 76 51 73 4.387
Walker Buehler 87 92 49 60 4.3991
Dave Stieb 84 81 59 52 4.4011
Kyle Wright 83 78 59 55 4.4014
Vic Raschi 72 94 51 54 4.4026
Alex Wood 78 64 60 67 4.4047
Robin Roberts 85 68 51 80 4.4052
Steve Carlton 87 82 53 62 4.4074
Dallas Keuchel 84 56 65 65 4.4146
Jack Flaherty 74 72 52 73 4.424
Randy Jones 76 41 62 85 4.428
Kyle Freeland 79 66 65 54 4.431
Lance McCullers Jr. 83 83 60 46 4.4375
Tanner Houck 79 76 60 53 4.4382
Burleigh Grimes 80 56 60 73 4.4402
Mark Langston 72 96 54 44 4.4426
Gary Nolan 85 85 48 66 4.4501
Seth Lugo 71 68 58 63 4.4701
Denis Boucher 67 45 71 61 4.4788
Orel Hershiser 84 70 54 68 4.4799
Jameson Taillon 81 66 55 70 4.4822
Marcus Stroman 80 55 67 58 4.4879
Dontrelle Willis 81 77 60 49 4.4902
Luis Tiant 88 100 45 54 4.4952
Johnny Sain 81 65 51 77 4.5097
Oliver Perez 85 107 45 46 4.5119
Don Schwall 66 52 80 35 4.512
Mike Witt 71 83 54 53 4.5134
Juan Marichal 85 79 39 85 4.5211
Kerry Wood 83 112 45 40 4.5288
Stan Bahnsen 81 57 61 65 4.5288
Kyle Hendricks 80 66 53 71 4.5306
Red Faber 83 74 54 61 4.5317
Allan Anderson 69 41 62 79 4.5322
Don Mossi 70 60 54 75 4.5331
Triston McKenzie 80 87 40 74 4.5395
Brandon Woodruff 75 73 59 52 4.5409
Adam Wainwright 76 66 56 64 4.5535
Dock Ellis 70 62 56 68 4.5539
Charlie Morton 79 83 55 48 4.5673
Bob Turley 69 105 48 39 4.5697
Joe Musgrove 73 65 49 77 4.5755
Andy Pettitte 77 62 59 61 4.5767
Johnny Kucks 65 49 68 57 4.5771
James Paxton 89 90 43 63 4.5794
Marco Gonzales 66 58 53 76 4.5835
Franklin Perez 75 76 46 71 4.5863
Robbie Erlin 72 55 49 86 4.5939
Zack Godley 70 74 61 44 4.5966
David Wells 70 65 43 87 4.5993
Ross Stripling 68 75 44 75 4.6001
German Marquez 78 77 50 61 4.6109
Jim Turner 74 42 58 81 4.6117
David Cone 72 73 54 57 4.6186
Britt Burns 81 65 54 65 4.6194
Charlie Robertson 69 58 64 53 4.621
Harvey Haddix 85 87 39 71 4.6245
Mark Fidrych 74 45 58 77 4.6287
Stephen Strasburg 90 90 42 62 4.6297
Bobby Shantz 82 73 42 79 4.6314
Julio Urias 65 64 62 50 4.6341
Mike Montgomery 67 59 63 53 4.6365
Justin Thompson 78 59 58 62 4.6447
Brad Keller 68 48 69 52 4.6486
Dave Fleming 73 48 60 69 4.6495
Ernie White 83 90 44 57 4.6507
David Cone 68 82 54 46 4.6524
Trevor Cahill 61 66 63 45 4.6531
Eddie Lopat 67 43 58 77 4.6637
Nathan Eovaldi 74 59 52 72 4.6685
Lefty Grove 81 73 51 59 4.6826
Kenta Maeda 76 73 52 57 4.6844
Mike Foltynewicz 71 77 54 49 4.6877
Alec Mills 67 54 57 65 4.7128
Mike Clevinger 75 79 52 49 4.7186
Rick Ankiel 78 99 45 42 4.7211
Hyun-jin Ryu 66 66 46 73 4.7263
Zack Greinke 79 68 44 74 4.7398
Shane Bieber 60 57 48 77 4.7482
Shohei Ohtani 81 86 50 44 4.7489
Lance Lynn 66 70 59 43 4.7496
Jerry Koosman 74 63 51 65 4.7531
Vern Law 66 44 51 84 4.755
Dallas Braden 65 47 54 75 4.7602
Zach Davies 66 57 56 61 4.7628
Chris Archer 76 78 48 55 4.7635
Mike Leake 65 46 50 82 4.7877
Juan Marichal 79 72 33 88 4.7887

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Yikes, someone just paid 13K (about 4K over the average price) this morning. I think that price will come back down once more get on the market. But then if he's as good as he appears, maybe it will go higher.

I didn't even realize he was newish when I grabbed him. Just thought I had never seen him before and bought some PP to BIN at 9500 once I saw how he ranked.

He just had another game, giving up 2 runs through 6 and getting a ND as the bullpen blows his 5-2 lead. Blake Treinan with his 3rd blown save of the season and he's not even my closer!

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr

I didn't even realize he was newish when I grabbed him. Just thought I had never seen him before and bought some PP to BIN at 9500 once I saw how he ranked.

He just had another game, giving up 2 runs through 6 and getting a ND as the bullpen blows his 5-2 lead. Blake Treinan with his 3rd blown save of the season and he's not even my closer!

Wow, who is your closer if Blake is not good enough to be?

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by Blazinghalo

This is a list of some of the most commonly seen starters with projected FIP using the above formula.

Name OVR Stuff Mov Con FIP
Matt Harvey 95 94 79 80 3.0295

I think you have a typo here. I think he's got 84 stuff. I can't find a card to confirm, but I have his vL at 80 and vR at 87, so I think I've got the right number. His FIP becomes 3.2042.

[pappyzan]

Are individual pitches or pitch ratings taken into consideration with any of these models/equations?

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Wow, who is your closer if Blake is not good enough to be?

Blake lost 8 games last season, but otherwise I guess he wasn't that bad when I pulled him as closer. He ended at a 117 ERA+ with a 3.18 FIP.

Anyway, I started trying out 2004 All-Star Mariano Rivera there. Even though he's an 86, I have them both in the Top 10 relievers. It's the best Rivera card, even better than the 93-rated card. But, that hasn't worked out so well.

This may seem crazy, but now I'm going to try out Chris Sale as Closer. He's just very average as a starter in Perfect and I've grabbed a few bargains from my rankings. My currrent starting rotation is:

Jacob deGrom (100)
Randy Johnson (97)
Dallas Keuchel (86)
Dizzy Trout (91) - got him late last night
Dizzy Dean (88)

Quite a dizzying rotation...hehehe

If one of the Dizzys don't work out, I'll probably drop Sale back in and go with Treinan at closer again.

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by pappyzan

Are individual pitches or pitch ratings taken into consideration with any of these models/equations?

No, and I think that's the next level of analysis that needs to be done, but with all the pitch types and GB/FB tendencies, it can get super complicated to tease out the subtleties.

Unless of course the Stuff/Movement/Control ratings factor in the pitch ratings, which could be the case.

[sharpk23]

DonkeyKongSr..

I'm going to have to compare your list to my list for SPs and formula and see how it compares. Interesting to see if we have any pitchers significantly different in the rankings. I did this for SPs and closers and did separate ratings for each position for hitters. Still have a handful of players I need to find ratings for so I can rank them though. I only rank 80+ players (plus a few others)

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr

Blake lost 8 games last season, but otherwise I guess he wasn't that bad when I pulled him as closer. He ended at a 117 ERA+ with a 3.18 FIP.

Anyway, I started trying out 2004 All-Star Mariano Rivera there. Even though he's an 86, I have them both in the Top 10 relievers. It's the best Rivera card, even better than the 93-rated card. But, that hasn't worked out so well.

This may seem crazy, but now I'm going to try out Chris Sale as Closer. He's just very average as a starter in Perfect and I've grabbed a few bargains from my rankings. My currrent starting rotation is:

Jacob deGrom (100)
Randy Johnson (97)
Dallas Keuchel (86)
Dizzy Trout (91) - got him late last night
Dizzy Dean (88)

Quite a dizzying rotation...hehehe

If one of the Dizzys don't work out, I'll probably drop Sale back in and go with Treinan at closer again.

Thanks for the response. Since you mention using starters as closers and/or relievers I thought I'd mention that in my spreadsheet that calculates eFIP, it also rates all pitchers by what I call RP Stuff since starters get varying bumps on stuff when made an RP. That way I can hopefully find a few starters that might otherwise not be worth the investment, but become much better options when made an RP. Off the top of my head, one of the biggest jumps I saw was a pitcher I've purchased in my lower league, Robert Stock. In his first year as a setup man, he did a fine job but as mentioned was at a lower league (Gold I think).

[Jeff1787]

Originally Posted by sharpk23

I'm going to have to compare your list to my list for SPs and formula and see how it compares. Interesting to see if we have any pitchers significantly different in the rankings. I did this for SPs and closers and did separate ratings for each position for hitters. Still have a handful of players I need to find ratings for so I can rank them though. I only rank 80+ players (plus a few others)

How do you rate position players?

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr

No, and I think that's the next level of analysis that needs to be done, but with all the pitch types and GB/FB tendencies, it can get super complicated to tease out the subtleties.

Unless of course the Stuff/Movement/Control ratings factor in the pitch ratings, which could be the case.

Pretty sure it's actually the opposite, to some extent at least. If you go into commish mode and change the individual pitch ratings, the stuff/mov/con ratings will change too. Like if you add a good sinker then the MOV rating will go up. There are separate inputs you can also change for stuff, control, and movement though...so it's some combination of both. It's definitely complex.

[sharpk23]

I just input all the ratings no the players I find and give each category a personal ranking for each position and create a formula. For example with catchers I value Contact, Power, Defense the most so I might put a multiplier of x5 and contact and x3 on Power. Defense I might put x2 or might look at catching ability, throwing arm and position rating and apply x1 to each. Categories that I think don't matter nearly as much such as speed for catchers I might assign a 0.5. I use the five main stats, speed ,defensive rating for position, and maybe others like IF/OF Range, IF/OF ERROR etc. Each position is rated differently per what I am looking for. It has worked pretty well for me so far. I have most players stats (missing about 2-3 each position that I haven't seen in AH or in my league). I can't account for R/L Splits though so I use it roughly and then look into splits if I can find them to decide who to buy. It has taken lots of hours for this, but I have done all positions except Relievers (I did Closers and added some higher RPs like Andrew Miller and Ron Dibble).

[justafish2002]

100 Maddux is 81 80 89 for a 3.067 good for 6th overall; 96 Matthewson only has 99 stuff as a starter...

[Dogberry99]

2015 Keuchel was the best point investment I've made in this game. He has single handedly stabilized my team enough to avoid relegation back to Gold. Through 189.1 IP over the course of 2 seasons at the Diamond level, he has a FIP of 3.25. He is also the early leader at SP for All Star votes. Ignore the low OVR and trust your formulas because this dude is apparently just that good.

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Thanks for the response. Since you mention using starters as closers and/or relievers I thought I'd mention that in my spreadsheet that calculates eFIP, it also rates all pitchers by what I call RP Stuff since starters get varying bumps on stuff when made an RP. That way I can hopefully find a few starters that might otherwise not be worth the investment, but become much better options when made an RP. Off the top of my head, one of the biggest jumps I saw was a pitcher I've purchased in my lower league, Robert Stock. In his first year as a setup man, he did a fine job but as mentioned was at a lower league (Gold I think).

So Month 1 with Closer Chris Sale was a success...

9 games
11.1 IP
5 saves
5 hits
2 walks
13 K
0 runs allowed
0.00 ERA
0.62 WHIP
1.79 FIP


Well, maybe not such as success because his replacement Dizzy Trout was awful:
1-4 with 7.71 ERA (57 ERA+) and a 5.44 FIP. He's probably getting 2 more starts while I wait for my other starting pitcher option (Dolf Luque) that I pulled from an auction to be ready to go.

Now Dizzy Dean is another story. 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA (155 ERA+). He had a 4.45 FIP, so he's actually been pretty damn lucky.

Keuchel ran into a bad stretch and ended up at 3-4, but with a 3.56 ERA (121 ERA+) and a 3.02 FIP (4th in the league), he's still my best starter.

[Orcin]

I believe there is a general link between ratings and performance, but there is also an extreme amount of variability that makes the performance over small sample sizes (a season) unpredictable. Therefore, the best approach is to collect a stable of starters that can be rotated in and out during first few months until you settle on the best for that particular season. Eight or ten should be enough if they are all good.

[Zorro]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I believe there is a general link between ratings and performance, but there is also an extreme amount of variability that makes the performance over small sample sizes (a season) unpredictable. Therefore, the best approach is to collect a stable of starters that can be rotated in and out during first few months until you settle on the best for that particular season. Eight or ten should be enough if they are all good.

You are so right. I keep exactly 10. From season to season I seem to have to exchange 2 of my 5 starters and the next season move them
back. Same with the bull pen. What works one season won’t the next but I keep them on the reserve roster because they will work the next season. (Maybe) lol

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr

So Month 1 with Closer Chris Sale was a success...

9 games
11.1 IP
5 saves
5 hits
2 walks
13 K
0 runs allowed
0.00 ERA
0.62 WHIP
1.79 FIP

Still rolling...3 perfect innings, 2 saves, 1 win. And he barely gets tired with 77% after back-to-back games.

[max venerabel]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Yikes, someone just paid 13K (about 4K over the average price) this morning. I think that price will come back down once more get on the market. But then if he's as good as he appears, maybe it will go higher.

I just paid 12.5K for him. Definitely an impulse purchase.